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Reality..........We may have been missed! And some dog pictures!
Let's begin today with complete frustration on my part. I had four hours of sleep last night waking up several times to see lightning north, west, east and near by. And, yet not even one drop of rain at my house. I am going to go into pessimism mode. Hopefully this will help produce some afternoon thunderstorms.
Here is the most compelling statistic:
KCI rainfall January 1 - May 30: 8.23"
Average rainfall by May 30th: 13.50"
This is 5.27"
below average with the deficit growing, and we were within 1" just a few weeks ago. This is the wettest time of the year and it is DRY.
The front that is supposed to help produce thunderstorms later today is falling apart. There is almost no convergence left and we could be left high and dry. Then again, there is still some hope. At this moment I feel we will have a few isolated thunderstorms but nothing organized. So, our rainfall deficit is likely to rise. The only rain we did get out of this was yesterday's surprise complex. All that rain did was create a bad image for our forecasts as we had to NOWCAST that one. We were the first ones to realize what was happening, but we still get blasted in the end for missing it.
I will try to get my attitude together later on. Have a great day! There is always the water bill to count on as I am now going to turn on the sprinklers again.
Windy continues to get so old, but today she attempted to play with Breezy, and Breezy and Stormy play hard.

Breezy waking up Windy this morning
Breezy getting Windy to play, sort of...Windy is 16 1/2 years old
Stormy and Breezy
Stormy and Breezy again
I just looked at the latest GFS run and there is almost no chance of rain for 15 days if it is correct. I should have been going with my instincts the entire time. This is a bad pattern. We knew it in November and it continues today. Hopefully there will be some excitement every once in a while.
Speaking of excitement. We have been teasing "Changing the way you will get weather....forever". What is it? We will let you know Wednesday!
Gary
Posted by at May 30, 2006 10:49 AM
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*sigh* Is there a reason for why we keep missing rain? I know we are seeing a drought form, but why is all the surrounding areas getting dumped on but us? There has to be some logical explanation for this. How can a storm like the other night go blazing guns toward us then as soon as it hits KC it falls apart and slides up north.. Is there something about the "city" that effects weather in some fashion?
Dave,
This is difficult to explain. It won't happen next year. This weather pattern is just not a good one for us. The thunderstorms just missing us is not unusual, but when you only get one complex there is always a chance of it missing you. Hopefully something will happen this evening and we will get a "make up for missing us" rain. The chance is slim.
Gary
Posted by: Dave C. at May 30, 2006 11:45 AM
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Gary
This is a little off topic, but I read an article in the STAR saying that Kansas City is now in zone 6 for plant hardiness because of the very warm winters that are now the norm. Officially we used to be in zone 5! Based on your weather pattern theory what are the chances of actually having a very cold winter this upcoming season? Thanks.
Devin
Devin,
I will have to go and read that article. According to my theory a new weather pattern evolves and sets up by November 10th. It will be unique and completely unrelated to this pattern, which is good. There is NO way it can be as bad as this pattern. And, there is no way, I don't think, to tell what it will be until early in November.
Gary
Posted by: Devin Kellerman at May 30, 2006 12:12 PM
You sound almost certain that we will not get any more rain today into tomorrow.
The front is still to our west. Are we in a cap? Why do you think that we will not get anymore rain?
-Ben-
Ben,
There is a very weak ridge aloft near us. Hope is still alive and a complex of thunderstorms may very well develop and affect us this evening. Yesterday we weren't expecting it and it happened, so I am keeping my eyes open.
Gary
Posted by: Ben Tracy at May 30, 2006 12:17 PM
Mr. Lezak,
Storms are beginning to fire around Salina? Do you think that they will form into a complex and head this way? The Humidity seems to be dropping. Will this tend to weaken the storms as they head east?
-Ben-
Ben,
Yes! They are firing. Let's see how these evolve.
Gary
Posted by: Ben Tracy at May 30, 2006 12:31 PM
Posted by: Dan at May 30, 2006 12:44 PM
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Gary:
Another one bites the dust hu? I do see NWS has us for 60% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. I see it is 50% tonight. So perhaps there is hope. I am pretty sure that our severe weather season for 06 is over. It seems like this Spring this pattern has been even stranger than it was this winter. Bring on the rain!
Brian
Brian,
Thunderstorms are developing over central Kansas so let's see how it evolves.
Gary
Posted by: Brian at May 30, 2006 12:48 PM
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Gary,
I notice a lot of activity on the radar west of Salina, as well as some developing thunderstorms south of Salina, is that where the front is stalled out and will those make it to KC? What is the determining factor for those to make it here?
Thanks,
Todd
Todd,
The flow aloft is very weak, so it will take a while for those thunderstorms to organize and then move our way. There is hope, so let's watch it carefully.
Gary
Posted by: Todd at May 30, 2006 1:14 PM
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Gary I just wanted to say I'm as frustrated as you on missing some good soaking rains last night in bonner springs it did the same thing alot of lightning and a few sprinkles but that was it besides our surprise spring factor storms we had yesterday afternoon I can tell it's going to be a long summer hopefully not I want some exciting weather
Jeremy,
At least it is raining a little bit now.
Gary
Posted by: Jeremy McWhirt at May 30, 2006 1:17 PM
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I was returning home yesterday from the long weekend and was lucky enough to watch the scattered activity evolve from isolated downpours to more organized activity. When I got into Sedalia, I felt there might just be hope that we would see some rain in Warrensburg finally. Lo and behold, the precip fell apart just as it entered Johnson county and over Warrensburg and re-ignited east and north of us. The same thing happened this morning. Is there any explaination for this? We happen to be one of the driest counties in Missouri and now you're indicating another at least 2 weeks with little or no rain opportunities coming up. We definitely seem to be in for a long, dry season ahead.
Mike,
You should be getting a nice thunderstorm about now. And, the next two weeks still have potential.
Gary
Posted by: Mike from Warrensburg at May 30, 2006 1:30 PM
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Gary,
I hope the rain makes it our way, my yard and flowers need the water. I was wondering, do you think we are in for a hotter then average summer? I am a little worried after the record breaking holiday weekend.
I also just wanted to let you know that I love watching your forcast every night and love to hear about your dogs. Keep the pictures coming!!
Tonya
Tonya,
It looks like it could be above average this summer, but let's see how it really sets up.
Gary
Posted by: Tonya at May 30, 2006 3:05 PM
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Gary,
Not that I prefer you to be crabby, but I find it refreshing that you can be honest enough about your passion and frustration with Mother Nature that you can share it honestly without sugar coating it! That being said, this pattern stinks! We got the weather too early this year as it peaked our interest, but were holding out for a full fledged May that never panned out. I hate that... Aleast I have my tropics..one named storm, and soon to be two.
Scott,
We are having a complex of thunderstorms tonight. Areas just south of Kansas City got the brunt of this one.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at May 30, 2006 3:12 PM
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Ok if I read this right, the NWS has an experimental storm prediction map which says that renwed moisture is expected to support instability and the possibility of severe weather between June 2nd and June 5th which covers most of the midwest.
Gary says there is a likelihood of a dry pattern for the next 15 days. New York is having more exciting weather than us.
So NWS says maybe, Gary says probably dry, I say I'm not taking an umbrella with me any time soon.
Jeri,
Yesterday I though it looked wet, today I felt it looked dry for the next 15 days, and now I am leaning towards the middle. So there is hope.
Gary
Posted by: Jeri Correll at May 30, 2006 3:21 PM
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At least you guys have a blog to keep us updated when the weather changes, which seems like always. Great job and cant wait to see your new way to get us the weather.
Great pics of the Dogs. Windy still looks very happy, esp with her new sister. I bet Stormy and Breezy keep you busy... they look very active.
Joe,
Thanks for the kind comments. I am about to go look outside for some lightning. Windy used to be frightened of the thunder, but she can still hear, but not as well so she is saved from this fear in her old age.
Gary
Posted by: joe at May 30, 2006 3:50 PM
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Love the pup photos! Here's an extra hug for Windy.
Stacey,
Thank you so much!
Gary
Posted by: Stacey at May 30, 2006 4:08 PM
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Great pictures Gary, thanks for posting them! And thanks for the Windy updates! Do Breezy, Windy & Stormy all sleep with you at night? If so I don't see how you do it. Our Jack Russell Terrier (20 pounds) and cat (10 pounds) sleep with us, and they pin my husband and I in to where we have no room to move!
Koyuki,
Windy sleeps on a comforter sitting on the carpet in my bedroom. Stormy sleeps on the bed and Breezy sleeps under the bed.
Gary
Posted by: Koyuki King at May 30, 2006 4:32 PM
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Hi Gary.
I have four Collies at my house: almost 12, almost 9, 7, and 4 1/2. It is a great thing to watch the "old girls" get a flash of their puppyhood and get involved in a play session. Glad to see that "Windy" can still (sometimes) play with the best of them. Thanks for the photos.
All the best,
Emily
Emily,
Thanks and say hello to all of the Collies!
Gary
Posted by: Emily at May 30, 2006 4:46 PM
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Gary,
Why would we need meteorologists if we could predict everything ourselves? It makes me feel better that even you get flummoxed once in a while :). You won't get any blasting for missing a suprise from me. I don't know how many times I have said "Welcome to Kansas" to someone who is complaining about our quick change weather patterns. Kansas is hard to predict and you do a remarkably good job at it. Score one for mother nature and keep on trucking!
Colleen
Colleen,
Thank you so much. We are the most accurate and I hate it when we blow a forecast.
Gary
Posted by: Colleen at May 30, 2006 5:27 PM
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I had a terrier dog for 18 1/2 years, no human brothers or sisters. It was so sad when Tyke died (1981). I can imagine how you feel about Windy. My Mother was telling me the other day, and catching part of the story, that you had a new dog, Breezy (great name). When did you get Breezy?
You're the best, Gary. sheila
SHEILA:
I think Gary got Breezy last month. He had our viewers vote on what he should name her... Breezy was the name he picked out of the viewer top three!
Jamie
Posted by: SHEILA GARRIGUS at June 1, 2006 11:05 PM
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