« The weather pattern is in a rut! |
Main
| Rain showing up or just fantasy? »
Shifting weather pattern
Good afternoon everyone,
I like to call the weather pattern a shifting one, rather than a changing one because I believe we are cycling through the same pattern. So, it isn't really changing, but shifting into the next part of the cycle. It will change in late summer and into the unique pattern that will set up next fall. We have just about completed our third cycle that became established in the fall. Remember my theory: A unique weather pattern sets up every year between October 10th and November 10th. It becomes established and starts cycling. The first cycle is hard to determine, but once the weather pattern completes the first cycle it starts repeating. We have had three long cool spells in this pattern and we have just completed the third cool spell. We thought all along that late April into early May we would have this next cold outbreak and I was somewhat concerned of a late killing freeze or frost. We, fortunately didn't get the freeze, but we did have the cool spell as expected.
When the weather pattern set up back in the early autumn, the NBC Action News Weather Team thought we were "doomed" as this pattern was a very bad one for us. This is why our initial winter forecast was for, perhaps the lowest amount of snow in our history and we predicted 11 inches for the season. I didn't see the cold part of the cycle, even though it did show itself during October. Then along came our huge December snowstorm, out of no where. That storm actually repeated in early February, but it went by unnoticed as a fast moving short wave. This is where my theory gets very complex as the same pattern can produce significantly different results.
During the past 28 days we have been 80 degrees or lower every day. It hit 80 three times, 9 days in the 70s and 16 days below 70 degrees. We also had anywhere from 3 to 9 inches of rain across the region. So, it has been COOL and WET. But, now we are drying out.
So, what is next? Below are three maps.
Click to enlarge (Upper flow showing another Great Lakes low developing)
Click to enlarge (Surface map showing cold front already past us by Sunday morning)
Click to enlarge (500 flow in nine days)
Eventually we will have some rain chances. The first chance could arrive with Friday nights and Saturday's cold front. About 6 to 10 days from now the pattern will be shifting and we may have more favorable rain chances at this time. The third map shows the trough coming into the Rockies on day 9 (216 hours). By this time it may be very dry again. The pressure will be on for the weather pattern to produce rain. It won't take much as the wettest 30 days on average in Kansas City is mid May to mid June. And, don't be surprised. Just when it is really getting hot in June or early July, the colder part of this cycle will be returning. But, will it be strong enough to produce another cool spell in July? I think it will be.
Gary
Posted by at May 16, 2006 11:57 AM
************************
Gary, Interesting synopsis of your cycle theory, It will be real interesting to see how the month of June plays out..still traditionally wet and can be interspersed with cool days. Looking at the radar today, once again the formation of rainfall is east and south..this is getting old!!! = ) hoping for a few surprises.
Robert
Robert,
It does look dry today.
Gary
Posted by: SkyMan at May 16, 2006 2:38 PM
*********************
Hello Mr. Lezak, Do you think that the chance of severe weather this year has diminished? Or do you see an active pattern in the near future? (Late May/June)
Ben,
It certainly looks like it has diminished as we are really running out of time. Be patient and let's look at it next week.
Gary
Posted by: Ben Tracy at May 16, 2006 6:52 PM
***************
What does the memorial day weekend look like, i.e. sunday and monday
Brad,
Right now it looks very warm and likely dry. But, it is still a long way off.
Gary
Posted by: brad thompson at May 16, 2006 8:55 PM
******************
Is it just the weakening jetstream that resets the pattern? Or is there possiblity another unknown thread that persists through summer to help continue the cycle? Gary, how many years have you tracked the GRC..are there any similarities in the other cycles or anything that might extend through summer?
Scott,
I believe the GRC is different than any other concept. The pattern continues in a very weak state until sometime during the summer when the flow gets so weak that it isn't supported anymore and chaos begins the transition into the new pattern.
I have been following this for at least 15 years. And, it happens EVERY year. So, you can make the assumption that it has always existed. I haven't made any conclusions on how it forms but something in the sea of air above the surface (troposphere) is able to have some organization to it, especially in the northern hemisphere westerlies.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at May 16, 2006 9:10 PM
**********
Gary,
Do you think the volcano erupting is going to have any effect on the up coming weather?
Thanks Steve
Steve,
It could have some affect, but it would have to be a massive eruption to really change things.
Gary
Posted by: Steve at May 16, 2006 9:26 PM
*************
I am really curious about the GRC! I want to know more about it! Does the Southern Hemisphere have a GRC? What kind of scale is the GRC, its it just North American, or I would expect it would also affect Europe as well? Does it extend down to the equator? I wonder...Oct/Nov 10th. What happens year after year during this time? [Thinking out loud] hurricanes are winding down after bringing energy from the tropics to the poles, jetstream picks up, cools down...what in the troposphere kicks it up?...do you have ideas, or are you keeping some thoughts to yourself to protect the GRC? Nice to think about this topic during the lull of storms..this is actually a bit more interesting...
Scott,
I do have some ideas and I do know that it works for the westerlies in the entire northern hemisphere. I haven't studied the poles or the tropical regions but it happens in the mid lattitudes. Germany had a snowstorm in November and we thought that it would happen again and it did two more times. The areas that had the snow hadn't seen any snow for decades. And, then three times in one season.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at May 16, 2006 11:00 PM
******************
A possible cold spell in July? I get depressed just thinking about it!
Marlina,
A cold spell in July could mean 70s and 80s. This is what a cool stetch in July would be like. It would be a welcome relief from the heat. But, don't count on it yet. Some weather patterns have a hard time getting the cold front down here during July. This pattern should be able to do it but we have to see how it evolves.
Gary
Posted by: happy penguin at May 17, 2006 12:01 AM
|
