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Spring surprise factor AGAIN
Good late morning, or afternoon! Here we go again. I saw it developing yesterday and there is a very good chance we could have a lot of rain near by this week. Notice on the 500 mb map below the hanging back trough into the Rockies and southwest. This will place us in a very interesting surface set up. It is very delicate and quite complex so more on the details later. But, there is a chance of thunderstorms with the cold front Wednesday, then an overrunning warm advection type of event Thursday and Friday. A slight shift here or there and we could get nothing. But, there is a trend (Spring Surprise Factor) to more rain later this week.
Click to enlarge (Valid Thursday evening notice the hanging back trough)
For you severe weather fans. Keep in mind we are cycling through the same pattern. This means the strong surface lows that were generated by the pattern in January and March are likely going to repeat later this week. So, there will very likely be some rather significant severe weather sometime soon. In the mean time I love this cooler rainier weather.
Posted by at May 1, 2006 11:36 AM
All things being equal, if it will rain with severe weather or cool soaking rains..I will take the cool soaking...but..tough on the excitement meter! Ready to once again see the cycle play out and see if the stronger lows resurface. I think just as interesting as the GRC, is how other attributes interacting with it cause different events. For example..the moisture now available from the Gulf has enacted the cycle to produce rain..where it didn't earlier in the cycle. If we can determine the cycle [which you have] and determine the factors that interact with the cycle [handful of factors..moisture, wind, etc], then maybe we could trend full scale events and impacts!
That would be pretty cool...
IT IS EXACTLY WHAT I HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DO FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. IT SEEMS TO BE WORKING QUITE WELL AS I HAVE SEEN OTHER FORECASTS SAYING OUR DROUGHT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AND IT OBVIOUSLY HAS CHANGED AS WE EXPECTED BASED ON THE GRC.
Posted by: Scott at May 1, 2006 12:20 PM
Gary, Do you think our last frost is over? Average is April 19th.
THERE COULD BE ONE MORE CHANCE, BUT I DOUBT IT.
Posted by: Gary B. at May 1, 2006 2:10 PM
It's UMKC's graduation this weekend. The Ceremony is outside. Are you still forecasting a sunny day on Saturday? Thanks.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS GOOD, BUT LOOK OUT FOR THAT SSF, SPRING SURPRISE FACTOR.
Posted by: Dave at May 1, 2006 2:47 PM
Hi Gary , from Dog - On the weather front, is "nearby" the operative word? But, you nailed the last forecast, and I liked your blog today, offering possibilities, but couched with caution - keeps us weather-nuts from jumping to the gun, as we should not. Good show!!! Now follows some non-weather news concerning Parker today:
Hi all - walking on the new Fleming Park trail, Parker had just shat in the verge upon leaves and bush, when walking, he began to slow markedly, then favored his left hind foot - we checked for a stone etc... but could see nothing perceptible, so continued and ended the walk, being more than half thru nothing else could be done. Still, we didn't notice any injury apparent.
At 1430, I was going to lie down and take a nap (fat chance), when I noticed that Parker's left hind foot and paw were grossly swollen up to almost the calf with pitting edema. I immediately threw on my clothes and went to the vet - fortunately they were able to get me in in short order.
The vet, a nice young man, noted that there was blood on Parker's leg, between the paw and the break where the leg straightens up into the thigh. Shaving this small area revealed two small wounds - a small way apart, indicating a puncture wound from a small snake, probably a Copperhead. Fortunately, dogs in snake bites only suffer local damage with swelling and infection the worst of it, and pain, of course. So $129.00 unexpected dollars later, he is on a course of expensive hi-powered antibiotics to prevent infection, for the snake has a dirty mouth, so to speak. At least, I did the right thing. and proved right in my initial gut reaction that it could have been a snake bite or spider bite.
There goes the budget this month, but better that than Parker to suffer.
WE HOPE PARKER HEALS FAST AND FEELS BETTER SOON. THAT IS PRETTY SCARY.
Posted by: StormDog at May 1, 2006 4:10 PM
Having lived all over the country as a military brat I've experienced different kinds of weather When we got hail and thunder we just called it a heckova good old thunderstorm. Is the severe weather you anticipate just hail and wind or the funnel kind?
UNFORTUNATELY IT WOULD LIKELY BE MORE THAN HAIL. BUT, NOT OUT OF THIS WEEK'S SET UP.
Posted by: Jeri at May 1, 2006 4:37 PM
Hello weather team you guys did a great job forcasting this weekends rain event. Do you see a chance of having severe weather this Wednesday?
LET'S LOOK AT IT TUESDAY. IT IS UNLIKELY, BUT WE MUST SEE HOW IT SETS UP. THINGS ARE CHANGING EVERY FEW HOURS.
Posted by: Ben Tracy at May 1, 2006 5:29 PM
Gary, the weekend rains, were not good for my girls soccer games, but great for my lawn. With April being the third warmest on record, what are your thoughts on this summer. Just wondering what the two summers were like following the top two warmest April's.
THE FORCING THAT PRODUCES MOST OF THE YEAR'S WEATHER IS VERY DIFFERENT AS WE MOVE INTO SUMMER. THIS IS WHY I STAND BY WHAT IS GOING ON NOW DOESN'T HAVE MUCH TO DO WITH SUMMER AT ALL. THE WARMEST JANUARY AND THE THIRD WARMEST APRIL WILL LIKELY MEAN NOTHING FOR THIS SUMMER'S WEATHER. THERE WILL NOT BE ANY CORRELATION TO WHAT HAPPENED IN THE PREVIOUS TIMES WE HAD WARM APRIL'S. IT DOESN'T MEAN IT WOULDN'T BE INTERESTING TO LOOK AT IT.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WE ARE IN NOW IS LIKELY A 60 DAY CYCLE AND BY SUMMER TIME I BELIEVE THAT THIS SAME PATTERN CONTINUES IN A VERY WEAKENED STATE. JUST AS IT HEATS UP THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL COOL THINGS OFF. AT LEAST THIS IS HOW I SEE THE BEGINNING OF SUMMERTIME.
Posted by: Greg at May 1, 2006 7:13 PM
I need two dry days now...I lost my 2 yr old in my front yard..hopefully I can get some time to mow.
Question..in looking at the 500 vort..how is it with very little if anything going on there, and nearly purely west/east winds [summer set up?]..where would any severe potential come from?
I DOUBT IT STAYS DRY TWO DAYS IN A ROW THIS WEEK, UNLESS YOU COUNT TODAY AS DAY 2.
THE WEST TO EAST FLOW AT 500 MB CAN PRODUCE EXTREMELY SEVERE WEATHER. AS LONG AS THERE IS ENOUGH FLOW, 30 KNOTS OR MORE, THEN THE SHEAR PROFILES ARE EVEN MORE IDEAL WITH A WEST WIND AT 500 MB. EARLIER IN THE SPRING THERE WOULDN'T BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR THIS SET UP, BUT WITH THE WEAKER FLOW ALOFT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS DRAWING IN THE MOISTURE.
SUMMER WILL SET IN WHEN THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS FURTHER. THIS IS STILL A MONTH AND A HALF AWAY.
Posted by: Scott at May 1, 2006 8:08 PM
Wow, I must say, I was impressed with this last storm. At last KC saw a decent storm that produced some great rain. I thought on Saturday afternoon it was going to be a bust (based on the discussions I read from the NWS.) While we did not have much thunder here in Overland Park, I am grateful for the rain.
Now, what about mid-week? As you said in your teaser, the new data is in. Isn't May the prime month for severe weather in Kansas? I realize that we had our share already this year, but I think that is just the tip of the iceberg.
I think we are going to have at least one perhaps two more major outbreaks yet this season, and I truly think that will happen this month.
So Gary, your theory, how is it holding up? Do you think it is going to be a busy May? Do think it will be above normal like the rest of the year has been so far?
Is the storm track part of your theory?
Brian from Overland Park
IT WAS A NICE WIDESPREAD RAIN. AND, WE COULD GET ANOTHER ONE THIS WEEK, BUT IT IS TRICKY.
THIS IS ALL PART OF THE CYCLING PATTERN THAT BEGAN IN LATE OCTOBER.
Posted by: Brian at May 1, 2006 8:30 PM
Someone say severe weather possibility? I'm awake again! We'll be watching :-)
I DOUBT WE HAVE MUCH SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME HAIL, BUT IT LATER NEXT WEEK THAT I AM CONCERNED WITH.
Posted by: Jeff N at May 1, 2006 9:33 PM
What is an "advection type of event" mean? Thanks!
PS Gary - I enjoyed watching you start out in OK with legendary Gary England and his pig. How is Gary? Does he still use a pig?
GARY ENGLAND IS DOING VERY WELL. I WAS ABLE TO VISIT WITH HIM IN MARCH WHEN I WENT DOWN THERE AND HE GOT TO SEE MY THEORY.
HE DOESN'T USE A PIG ANYMORE. HE WAS SUCH AN INSPIRATION TO ME.
Posted by: Cemetery Lady at May 2, 2006 7:54 AM
Gary, is it the large cutoff low [looks to me] in the Pacific off S. Cali that has you interested next week?
THE INTERESTING PART OF NEXT WEEK DOES NOT EVEN EXIST AT THIS MOMENT. THIS IS THE MOST AMAZING PART ABOUT MY THEORY AND WEATHER IN GENERAL. MY THEORY WOULD INDICATE WE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT STORM NEAR BY BY AROUND MAY 12TH, GIVE OR TAKE TWO OR THREE DAYS. AND, THE WEATHER PATTERN FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS IS ALWAYS WRONG. YOU JUST HAVE TO LOOK AT IT AND MAKE UP YOUR MIND ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN. ANY CUT OFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC WOULD GO THROUGH MANY TRANSFORMATIONS BEFORE POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR AREA.
Posted by: Scott at May 2, 2006 8:34 AM
Gary, you say "THE WEATHER PATTERN FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS IS ALWAYS WRONG."
Pretty bold. Always?
THERE ARE ALWAYS ERRORS. THEY AREN'T 100% ACCURATE. BUT, REALLY, I WAS TALKING ABOUT 3 DAYS TO 10 DAYS OUT. THEY ARE ALWAYS WRONG. YOU JUST HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO WHERE YOU THINK THEY ARE OFF. THEN THE HUMAN FORECAST IS THE MUCH BETTER ONE IF YOU MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION.
Posted by: Scott at May 2, 2006 9:01 AM
Agreed. Models seem to work better for trending, and if they were 100% accurate, we wouldn't need..well...thank goodness they aren't 100% accurate. ;-)
I will wait for the 5/12 ish storm...but right now..with a 2-3 day window is not much more reliable than 3-10 day out computer models.
The proof is always in the pudding much closer to the event regardless of what way you determine long range forecasting. It has been shown that the computers can be off and the GRC [Gary Recurring Cycle - until this gets officially named. When are you going to name this thing, Gary?] provides the pattern, but not the catalysts that determine its impact. Both refine as the time comes closer. But..I will say this...cooler to know the upcoming pattern and try to figure out the catalysts than not know any of it and rely completely on the models - I suspect many weather folks do the second..
EXACTLY! AND THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE A HUGE ADVANTAGE.
Posted by: Scott at May 2, 2006 9:12 AM