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The weather pattern is in a rut!
This week will be dominated by a ridge in the west and a Great Lakes upper low. The upper low that is now over the eastern part of the USA will lift out, but then be replaced by a new developing Great Lakes upper low. Below you can see today, Wednesday and then Thursday night as the new upper low forms. There is not enough moisture at this time of the year to bring us any thunderstorms. This same pattern in a couple of weeks may have enough moisture, but by this time the pattern will have shifted with the ridge trying to come right over us. This would imply a significant warm up soon.
Click to enlarge (Shows the 500 mb flow today)
Click to enlarge (500 mb flow Wednesday)
Click to enlarge (500 mb flow Thursday night)
We are stuck in this part of the pattern but it should break down within the next 7 days. If that ridge out west shifts into the plains we will be approaching 90 degrees again and it will be dry. Hopefully a storm can sneak into the flow. As soon as it looks exciting we will let you know.
Today, a few showers are likely to form. We are very unstable aloft with some rather cold temperatures up around 10,000 to 20,000 feet up. This should be able to create a few showers by early this afternoon that could linger into the evening.
Have a great day. You can see in yesterday's entry by Jamie we had a great time at the Olathe Animal Hospital open house Saturday. Stormy and Breezy were so wonderful to sit there and help me sign autographs. Jamie brought Mags and I tried to pick her up. She is really getting big.
Gary
Posted by at May 15, 2006 11:13 AM
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Gary,
That last map looks like we may get in on a little "Omega" block action some time next week? I am just hoping for some heat next week, cuz my family is going to the lake.
I know we need more rain, but a little heat would be nice!!
Bruce,
It is an Omega block in some respects, but I expect it to break down early next week.
Gary
Posted by: Bruce Richardson at May 15, 2006 12:41 PM
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Hi Gary,
When do you think we can expect the Low's to lift out of the Great Lakes region? I'm heading to Indianapolis next week for Indy 500 race activities and am starting to worry about how long these Low's are hanging around.
Thanks,
Jeff
Jeff,
The pattern will be changing by the time the INDY 500 race gets underway. Hopefully it will be dry.
Gary
Posted by: Jeff at May 15, 2006 2:42 PM
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Gary
If this strong ridge moves in from the Western U.S. the 850 temps would likely get out of control. Some of the models (GFS) want to move this ridge out onto the plains with 850 temps nearing 25-30C. Hopefully we can get rain soon before that ridge becomes a permanent summer feature.
Devin Kellerman
Devin,
It will be drying out, but then the threat of thunderstorms should arrive.
Gary
Posted by: Devin Kellerman at May 15, 2006 3:19 PM
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Gary - I rather tend towards Devin's thoughts - if it isn't one thing, it's another, namely CAP - Here is what the NWS says for what it is worth:
BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE AXIS AND 580+ DM HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...PROVIDING WEATHER CONDITIONS MORE TYPICAL OF
MID TO LATE MAY. DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FINALLY RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT SO WILL A STRONG CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER...LIMITING ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
Sigh but hoping against hope,
Dog
Storm Dog,
I somewhat agree with the above statement, but let's see what happens first. The pattern starts going through a transition during the next week. Hopefully it will set up nicely for us, but I am more confidence that it will be a struggle to produce rain again, for at least another 7 to 10 days.
Gary
Posted by: StormDog at May 15, 2006 4:57 PM
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Just wanted to thank you guys for all the hard work you do, putting up this blog. I know you've read it a thousand times, but thanks again. It's really insightful to see what helps you all form your forecasts and then to see what other users put up here. I'm thankful for the calm week ahead of us. I live in an apartment in Lawrence, Kansas while going to school and its nice to not have to duck and cover every night. I don't mind the cooler weather as we'll have plenty of heat soon enough.
Shawn,
Thanks for the kind statements. We are enjoying the blog and the connection to our viewers. It is a really positive experience. I agree with you on the cooler weather. We know summer is coming!
Gary
Posted by: AdmiralShawbo at May 15, 2006 9:16 PM
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