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 June 30, 2006

Some of our contestants

Well, The contest is on and some of your dates are coming up. It is too late to enter if you are reading this for the first time.

The contest was to predict which date and time of day we will have our hottest temperature this summer.

Here are some of the contestants coming up:

Connie Lovsky: July 9th, 3PM
Ivy Zumwalt: July 10th, 3:57 PM
Jodi Walker: July 11th, 3:37 PM
Brad: July 11th, 5:15 PM
Ann Anderson: July 12th, 3:46 PM
Kay Brown: July 13th, 2:15PM
Andy Donigan: July 13th, 4:15 PM
Trampus Celensky: July 14th, 3:48 PM
Mitch Beller: July 15th, 3:46 PM

Overall over 130 people entered. So, good luck. More names later.

Gary

Posted by at 8:04 PM | Comments (2)

The heat builds stronger

Later today we will look at a few of your entries in our contest for picking the hottest day of the summer. It will be warming up the next three days with the critical factor each day being the amount of cloud debris from leftover thunderstorms to our north. At this moment I don't expect too much cloud cover so it will approach 100 degrees each day. We decided to keep it at 99 for the highs, not just because we are "chicken", but because it really looks like it could stop somewhere in the upper 90s. Today will be the first test, so let's see what happens with today's high temperature. A heat wave is defined as three consecutive days where the temperatures are close to 100 degrees. The humidity is still low, which is amazing considering it is still quite green. The dewpoints appear they will stay in the 50s much of the weekend and this will limit any heat index to be near the actual temperature.

The "mini" heat wave will likely break by Monday or Tuesday with a weak cold front and some thunderstorms developing near by. Below is the 500 mb flow and surface flow valid Tuesday night and then the precipitation forecast for Monday through Wednesday.

GFS Upper flow valid Tues night.gif
Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid Tuesday evening)

GFS 120 valid Tues night.gif
Click to enlarge (surface valid Tuesday evening)

gfs precip Monday-Wednesday.gif
Click to enlarge (rainfall forecast Monday-Tuesday night)

This 06z run of the GFS was rather different than the past few runs as it got rather wet after this next 5 day stretch. I am not buying this solution yet as we know how much of a struggle it has been to produce widespread rainfall.

Have a great weekend, and once again later today I will be posting a few of the entries for the hottest day.

Gary

Posted by at 6:33 AM | Comments (4)

 June 29, 2006

Weather pattern

Good morning. I had a great vacation just sleeping in and relaxing. But, now it is back to work. I have been analyzing all of the data from this weather pattern that began back in October and early November. We are still in the same pattern. My theory is: The weather pattern sets up between October 10th and November 10th EVERY year. It then starts cycling. The cycle and the weather pattern are unique, in other words each year is different than any other weather pattern that has ever existed. The cycle is not defined until we have gone through one. As soon as the first cycle is completed the pattern then repeats and doesn't end until late July or early August. Then the pattern goes through chaotic transition and then begins developing a new unique pattern as we move into October.

I presented my theory to meteorologists from around the nation last August in Washington D.C. There are many skeptics out there, but I am convinced that this happens. We have been tracking it since the early 1990s and it happens every year.

This year we are in a 58 to 62 day cycle, give or take a couple of days. This means that every 60 days or so the cycle completes and begins again. It is absolutely fascinating. Let's look at one example. Right now, below is the 500 mb chart from last night.
500 mb Jun 28th 2006.gif
Click to enlarge (500mb flow valid 7 PM June 28th, 2006)

Notice the ridge aloft over the southwest United States and how it extends all the way up to northern Canada near the Arctic Cirle.

Now, look at the next two maps valid October 23rd and December 21st below.

500 mb October 23 2005.jpg
click to enlarge (October 23, 2005)

500 mb December 21 2005.jpg
Click to enlarge (December 21st, 2005)

These maps clearly show an almost identical upper level flow pattern with varying degrees of intensity. The flow is a lot stronger in December than October, and it is stronger in October than right now where we are into summertime. October 23rd is 248 days ago (divide that by 4 which is 62), the first cycle was becoming established. We identified the cycle by early to mid December as the pattern started repeating. December 21st is 58 days from October 23rd. At first we thought it was around 54 to 58 days, but as the pattern repeated it became obvious to us that it was around 60 days or so.

Now remember, this is just one day, but pick any day and you can go forward or backward around 58 to 62 days and you will be able to see how it all lines up. And another amazing thing about my theory is that each year has a different cycle. Last year it was around 74 to 78 days, the year before that it was around 54 days, and in 2002-2003 it was around 34 to 38 days. This is why I don't believe it is tied to any ocean oscillation. It is caused by something entirely different, perhaps a combination of things. And, this is just for the northern hemisphere which would include Europe, Asia, and North America. The southern hemisphere likely does something similar, but I haven't studied this.

This year we have been in this horrible pattern. It just hasn't brought us weather enthusiasts much excitment. Oh, it has had its moments with the massive tornado outbreak in March, the freak snowstorm in December, the warmest January ever, the driest February ever, but this pattern has been much more exciting for other parts of the nation. The flooding going on right now in the northeast is no surprise as this pattern has produced similar conditions a few times right on that 60 day cycle already.

So, it is good news that the pattern is about to fall apart. In about a month it will die. I have seen it happen. Start looking for the pattern to "look" much different as we move into August.

Now, back to our weather. A small heat wave is trying to build right now. It may hit 100 degrees before Monday, but a cold front is progged to make it in here by early next week with some rain chances and cooler weather.

Gary

Posted by at 6:31 AM | Comments (7)

 June 28, 2006

Spotty Continues

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 91
LOW: 59

It has been another nice summer day for us, and once again... some isolated thunderstorms have popped up as we reached our max heating. You can see them on the evening image of ESP:

june 28 esp.jpg
Click to see the most current image

We STILL have a weak stationary front draped across the area:

june 28 sfc.gif
Click to enlarge

That is the spotty thunderstorm culprit. The reason they are SOOOO spotty is because we are lacking moisture. The front will still be nearby tomorrow and Friday, so we can't rule out isolated thunderstorms both of those days, too... although most areas should stay dry.

Temperatures will continue to bake south of the front. We will be into the lower 90s the next couple of days... and then mid-90s for the weekend! Not much else is going on, here.

The big weather continues to be out East! Flooding rains continue... and now the floods are being blamed for 11 deaths there. This from the AP:

New York officials say two people died after a "washout'' on an interstate this morning. State police report two bridges "are down.''

Ten counties in upstate New York have declared states of emergency amid heavy rain.

In Maryland, a fire official says three young adults are dead after being swept from the bed of a pickup truck.

The Frederick County official says another driver had rescued the three from their stranded vehicle. But the truck then got stuck in high water and the people were washed away.

Emergency workers had already been searching for two missing teens in Maryland and a girl who was swept away in Virginia.

A fire official in Pennsylvania says an elderly man died in a single car accident on a road that was closed by flooding near the New Jersey state line.

The rain has pretty much come to an end there, for now... but there is just entirely too much water with no place to go. So the flooding problems will continue.

Last, many of you have been asking about when Weather Plus will be streaming on our website. Here is the answer from our Weather Plus expert:
"Hopefully in about a week, maybe earlier. We are waiting on an audio card for the box. I have the video part working. Will unveil when I have sound. "

Hang in there... it's coming soon! :) Gary is back from vacation Thurs/Fri. See ya over the weekend!
Have a good one!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:40 PM | Comments (2)

 June 27, 2006

Hotter we go!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 87
LOW: 59
POLLEN: LOW
MOLD: MODERATE

It has been another nice summer day for us in Kansas City and the surrounding counties! Farther off to our east... this afternoon... a few thunderstorms developed:

june 27 radar.bmp

There was a weak upper wave that moved through, helping to kick off that activity. We also have a cold front to our north... and ahead of that feature, we have seen additional thunderstorm development. Here is ESP this evening:

june 27 esp.jpg
Click to see the current image

These spotty thunderstorms will be affecting the western/northern part of our viewing area this evening... update... a small cluster of thunderstorms will move through the immediate metro... producing some quick, heavy rainfall, small hail and gusty winds. Nothing severe is expected, and they should continue to weaken/deminish as the sun sets.

It looks like the front will stall out over us for Wednesday... providing a big temperature contrast from north to south. Up towards the MO/IA state line... highs will be near 80... and down in our southern viewing area... highs will be in the lower-to-mid 90s. Here in KC, I am thinking we'll be in the upper 80s to right around 90 degrees. It will really depend on where that front sets up, but overall, I think it will be a warm day for us! I have kept a 30% chance of a spotty thunderstorm, too... much like we saw today.

Jeff and I were talking yesterday about how crazy it is that we are looking at/forecasting these SMALL thunderstorms and rain chances... while all along the East Coast, they have had TONS of rain and flooding. Some areas have seen more rain than we have seen all YEAR.

Here is a cute viewer picture of the Purtill family's lab:

viewer lab.bmp

Matt sent this in... he says Sara LOVES the patio table! They moved the patio chairs so that she couldn't get up on the table... but she still jumped up! He even put up a 38-inch-high gate, and says she scales that, too! How funny!

Have a good one,
Jamie

Posted by at 6:05 PM | Comments (7)

 June 26, 2006

Wow

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 82
LOW: 58
POLLEN: LOW
MOLD: HIGH

What an amazing day... this is MY idea of a perfect day. Gary has his 71 degrees as perfect... for me it is right around 80. I hope you got to enjoy it!

The heavy rains some of us saw over the weekend have brought up our mold count around the area! This will keep spore counts high for a few days, but they should start to deminish as we dry out again. The chance for rain is dwindling for the Tuesday night/Wednesday cold front. It just doesn't look like it will amount to much:

june 26 nam.gif

It's not much of a front, and there is really not much moisture to work with. Right now, our dew points are only in the upper 40s! We'll keep a 20% chance in just in case.

After that front comes through, we should see a warming trend as we head into the 2nd half of the week. We'll be back in northwest flow... so we'll have to watch for the chance of scattered thunderstorms over the weekend.

Enjoy a BEAUTIFUL evening!
Jamie


Posted by at 4:28 PM | Comments (3)

 June 25, 2006

Soooo Spotty


TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 82
LOW: 60

Today's thunderstorm activity has been extremely spotty across the area. Most of the thunderstorms developed once we reached peak heating to the east and south of the Metro. There is another area of thunderstorms now coming into the St. Joseph and Trenton areas... this is ahead of our upper wave. You can see it on the late afternoon ESP image:


june 25 esp.jpg

Click for the current image

We will have to watch those thunderstorms to the north. I think the chances of them reaching the Metro are maybe 30%. For those of you to the north, expect scattered showers through the evening hours.

As for Monday... there is still the chance of some spotty thunderstorms EAST of KC... although the chance is only about 30%. Nevertheless, watch out in Trenton, Chillicothe, Sedalia, etc. The rest of us will see a pretty nice day! Partly cloudy and cooler, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s! Besides thunderstorms, this is actually my favorite weather! :)

As promised, here are some pictures from my trip to Florida. Like I said earlier, we didn't do much "Florida" stuff (ie, no beach)... mainly because of the baby, but also because of TS Alberto!

First, this is little Bella... my best friend's newborn:
bella.jpg

When I went down there, she was just 4 weeks old! It was amazing to see how your life changes with kids. I came back and was able to swap baby stories with Jeff Penner! :) Here I am with Bella... she is wearing an outfit with our high school logo on it... too cute:

bella fairmont.jpg

And this is my friend's dog, Micky... she is also a lab:

Micky.jpg

Micky has lots of energy.... I would LOVE to get her together with Mags... I know they would have so much fun running each other ragged! ;) And speaking of the Magsters... here she is last week:

june 25 mags.jpg

I love it when she hangs her head out the window:

mags out window.jpg

Her ears and cheeks flap in the wind... it is priceless!
Have a good day!
Jamie


Posted by at 4:46 PM | Comments (6)

Weekend Rain

Good morning!

After yesterday's torrential downpours across parts of the Metro... we started today with patchy fog, as expected! But that fog is quickly lifting, and we can expect a mix of sun and clouds as we go through the day. As Jeff blogged about yesterday, we also have the potential for thunderstorms, once again! Here is a look at the upper level disturbance that will be swinging through today:

june 25 500.gif
Click to enlarge

There is the potential for some stronger thunderstorms this afternoon... damaging winds and hail will be the main threats. You can see the SPC has put us in a slight risk:

june 25 severe.gif

Our disturbance should be just off to our East on Monday. Close enough to keep some clouds around through the day. I think it could also set off some spotty t-storms during the afternoon, especially east of KC. So rain chances continue! Here is a look at the upper flow Monday:

june 25 500 for monday.gif
Click to enlarge

Another big thing you will notice with this whole set-up... is the COOLER temperatures!! We have a couple of days with highs in the 70s in the forecast... and lows down into the 50s!

Jamie

Posted by at 8:15 AM | Comments (6)

 June 24, 2006

Interesting Sunday

The weather on Sunday has the potential to be somewhat exciting. A cold front & disturbance will be tracking through from the north around noon Sunday (see forecasted upper level flow from the GFS model for 1 pm Sunday). These features may help to touch off some scattered showers & T-Storms midday Sunday. So, the day may start sunny with building cumulus during the morning. Some of these clouds may grow into showers & T-Storms with brief heavy downpours. They may be around for 2-3 hours & then move away with the day ending partly cloudy & pleasant.


Click to Enlarge
GFS 6Z June 24th.gif

Posted by at 8:19 AM | Comments (15)

 June 23, 2006

Spotty Chances


TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 87
LOW: 62

What a nice day across the region! We had plenty of sunshine between fair weather cumulus clouds, and highs in the mid-to-upper 80s.

Now, this evening, we are watching a few isolated thunderstorms in the Northwest part of the viewing area. Here is the evening image on ESP:

june 23 esp.jpg
Valid 5:20pm. Click to see the most current image

These isolated cells are marginally severe... with wind gusts near 40-50mph possible. They are producing some heavy rain... a quick .5 to .75"! Too bad they are not more widespread.

As we go into the weekend, we are back in Northwest flow. Notice the ridge once again building into the Southwest US:

june 23 500.gif
Click to enlarge

So we'll see a mainly DRY weekend, with the potential for a few spotty showers/thunderstorms as waves of energy rotate around that ridge and drift our way. The best chance looks to be late Saturday into Sunday morning as a cold front moves in.

Overall, we are in a stretch of cooler days! We will see highs in the lower-to-mid 80s through the weekend and most of next week. Do you remember Gary saying that this would happen? I went back and found a blog entry he did on May 16th:

"And, don't be surprised. Just when it is really getting hot in June or early July, the colder part of this cycle will be returning."

The pattern continues!

Here is some good info from the NWS on our thunderstorms from Wednesday/Thursday:
BENEFICIAL RAIN/ISOLATED SUPERCELL

And one more link... our Weather Plus page is finally up and running, if you have questions about it:
WEATHER PLUS 101

Just a reminder, today is the LAST day to enter the HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR contest!! We will take entries until midnight. Scroll down to see the contest info... Gary posted it earlier in the week.

Jeff will be here most of tomorrow, I will be back for the 10pm newscast. I will try to remember to post some new Mags pictures over the weekend. Some of you asked about Florida pictures... well... I didn't even make it to the ocean! I was helping my best friend with her newborn! Maybe I will post a baby picture, instead! :)

Have a good one!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:11 PM | Comments (5)

 June 22, 2006

Rainfall Recap


TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 82
LOW: 71
POLLEN: LOW
MOLD: MODERATE

Many locations got some much-needed rainfall overnight and this afternoon. The nighttime rain fell across the northern viewing area... and dumped upwards of 3-4" of rainfall there. Then this late morning/afternoon, we had additional thunderstorms affect the southern and eastern parts of the viewing area. Some of you there picked up 2"! Here is a look at the Doppler rainfall estimates:

June 21 rainfall est.jpg

Notice once again... there is a hole. This time, the dry spot includes parts of Leavenworth, Wyandotte and Johnson Counties in Kansas... and Platt and Jackson Counties in Missouri. And unfortunately, KCI was in that mix. Sooooo our "official" rainfall numbers for the area only get .13" tacked on today. Check out the comparison to how much rain had fallen there last year, and in 2004:

JUNE 22 KCI RAINFALL.JPG

Some of you also had some hail out of a few of the thunderstorms. The pictures below come from Bob and Rosemary Wade. They said the hail was just over one inch in diameter in Creighton:

june 21 hail.bmp



june 21 hail measured.bmp


There is not another big rain chance showing up at this point. There MAY be a complex of thunderstorms heading in sometime over the weekend... but confidence in that is low, so just a 30% chance right now.

Have a good one!
Jamie

Posted by at 4:01 PM | Comments (19)

 June 21, 2006

Rain Chances

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 92
LOW: 75
POLLEN: LOW
MOLD: HIGH

We've had another hot afternoon... with highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s across the area. Once again, yesterday... we had thunderstorms in the AREA... but no real action here in the Metro.

Some of yesterday's strongest storms were to our northwest, in Nebraska. Check out this storm captured in Rushville, Nebraska:

june_21_tornado.JPG

A tornado is to blame for damage to a home and several buildings there... including the town's car wash, and a barn. No injuries were reported... about 930 people live in that small town. Winds from the tornado were estimated at 90mph... and the NWS is surveying the damage today to determine the tornado intensity.

Severe thunderstorms are also possible this evening across parts of Kansas, well west of our area. You can see the favored area of development below:

june 21 meso.gif

Our rain chances are going up tonight into Thursday as well. Many of your lawns are still screaming for a good soaking rain!! It is hard to believe that the set-up we are going into would NOT give us rain... but it has happened before. We have a front, an upper wave, and slightly higher dew points than the times we "missed out". We are continuing our 90% chance of thunderstorms for Thursday.

Here is a look at our in-house computer model's rainfall forecast:

june21 forecast.jpg

Keep in mind, the bullseye of rain could shift... but we should likely have SOME parts of our viewing area receive pretty good rainfall. Take a look at what the 18Z GFS does:

june 21 gfs.gif
Click to enlarge

This particular model keeps the heaviest rain south of the Metro, and it HAS been pretty consistent in doing so. We will be updating the forecast tonight at 5, 6 and 10pm! Gary is on vacation, so I... along with Jeff... have the fun task of figuring this one out.

Have a good one!
Jamie

Posted by at 4:20 PM | Comments (27)

 June 20, 2006

Contest, heat, rain, and pictures

Good morning,

The contest continues and we are getting a lot of entries. We decided to make the deadline for entries THIS FRIDAY instead of next Friday . This will allow us to have time to organize all of the entries and start having fun on the air with them. So, if you have not entered please do so by the end of this week. The details are below.



PREDICT THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER!

All you have to do to enter, is to submit your guess below in our "comments" section. You need to enter a DATE and a TIME OF DAY to help with a tie-breaker. An example would be: August 21st at 2:07 pm!

Try to be that specific to separate you from everyone else. We have started taking entries... and will continue until the deadline... FRIDAY, JUNE 23rd. No entries will be accepted beyond this Friday! Don't forget to include your contact information... we won't publish that part... but we will put you in our contest database. One entry per person, please!


Now back to our weather situation.

The latest NAM and GFS have the axis of heaviest rain right through our local region. I still have big concerns that something will go wrong considering what has happened lately. At this time of year it can get very wet, but at the same time most July's have rain three or four times and when you get it you usually get a lot. The rest of the month is often dry. So, as July approaches we must take advantage of these situations. I am acting like we have control over this which we don't.

Below is the 06z data from the GFS and NAM. Both have quite a bit of rain here, especially the NAM.
GFS forecast.gif
Click to enlarge (GFS forecast Wed-Fri rainfall)

NAM forecast.gif
Click to enlarge (NAM forecast Wed-Fri rainfall)

Summer begins Wednesday morning at 7:26 AM. And, the pattern wants to become dominated by the "anticyclone", or the high heights aloft that is often centered over the southwestern United States over its favored summer position. Right over the deserts. Summer will begin with the flow coming out of the north and northwest so let's hope we get the rain this week. I will have it covered on tonights weathercasts. Now to the dog and baby show below. Jeff Penner and his wife stopped by over the weekend and Skyler met the dogs.


gary & dogs elder cool shoot (2).jpg
Windy, Stormy & Breezy on a photo shoot, it was hot
windy on new bed (2).jpg
Windy lying on her new bed (she is 16 years 7 months old)
This is a Gel-Pedic bed given to Windy....very comfortable!
stormy skyler kiss (2).jpg
Jeff Penner's baby Skyler getting a Stormy kiss

windy kissing skyler (2).jpg
Windy giving Skyler a kiss too

I must say that it is dangerous to have dogs give the baby kisses. Windy and Stormy have always just naturally gone up to baby's and kissed them. Please don't allow your dogs to do this unless you really know your dogs well. Breezy, for example, is afraid of the baby and we didn't even let her get close. Maybe some day, but not if the dog is nervous.

Have a great day! And think rain!

Gary

Posted by at 6:34 AM | Comments (62)

 June 19, 2006

Contest and weather frustrations

Good morning everyone. This weekend's weather is just another example of how frustrating it has been. More on this in a second, but first, below is our contest we are having for Bloggers and for those watching NBC ACTION WEATHER PLUS, our new weather channel on our digital tier.


PREDICT THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER!

All you have to do to enter, is to submit your guess below in our "comments" section. You need to enter a DATE and a TIME OF DAY to help with a tie-breaker. An example would be: August 21st at 2:07 pm!

Try to be that specific to separate you from everyone else. We have started taking entries... and will continue until the deadline... FRIDAY, JUNE 23rd. No entries will be accepted beyond this date! Don't forget to include your contact information... we won't publish that part... but we will put you in our contest database. One entry per person, please!

We will have various prizes for the winner!! This will be exciting and we will list some of your names as we get some hot weather. Good luck!

Now back to our weather. This morning thunderstorms are again in a spot that will likely leave most of us dry. The amazing thing is there are very heavy thunderstorms around. Look at the 6 AM radar:
ESP 6 AM.jpg

This shows the thunderstorms just west of us. They could easily have formed overhead and they are still trying to do so. Saturday, thunderstorms died near the state line early in the morning, and then redeveloped just south and east of Kansas City, one county away. Then Saturday night another line of thunderstorms formed and was strong up until the time they got close to Kansas City. It rained, but it then fell apart. The rain cooled air from Saturday afternoons rain east of us was too much for this area of rain and it helped it fall apart. It is always something.

As we look ahead, the models have been trending towards a cooler and wet stretch ahead, but guess what, this morning even that is fading away. Wednesday into early Saturday two fronts will slip into the area and we will have a chance to redeem ourselves and get some rain....or will the frustrations continue?

Gary

Posted by at 5:58 AM | Comments (44)

 June 18, 2006

Are You Game?

OK, here is our fun contest for all you bloggers:


PREDICT THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER!

All you have to do to enter, is to submit your guess below in our "comments" section. You need to enter a DATE and a TIME OF DAY to help with a tie-breaker. An example would be: August 21st at 2pm!

We will starat taking entries tonight... and will continue until the deadline... FRIDAY, JUNE 23rd. No entries will be accepted beyond this date! Don't forget to include your contact information... we won't publish that part... but we will put you in our contest database. One entry per person, please!

We will have various prizes for the winner!! But most of all, it will be a fun thing for us to concentrate on... since the lack of rain is frustrating many of you!

Good luck!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:57 PM | Comments (34)

Great Day!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 86
LOW: 66

Well SOMEONE in our viewing area had some good thunderstorms yesterday! One of our weather checkers emailed us some actual storm damage pictures! Do you believe it? ;)

These come to us from John in Clinton. He reports about .85" in rainfall, and says strong wind gusts in the range of 30-40 MPH came along with the afternoon thunderstorms. Here is a picture of his family's shed that was blown down:

june 17 clinton shed.JPG

june 17 clinton damage.JPG

On my way home from work last night, I saw quite a bit of lightning to my southwest... but the heaviest rain just didn't make it to my house. I hope I never have to go through another year like this!

June17Rainfall.jpg

Doesn't that just say it all?
Jamie


Posted by at 3:18 PM | Comments (6)

Unbelieveable!!

HAPPY FATHER'S DAY!!
I hope all the Dads out there really enjoy their day... you deserve it!! And the weather should cooperate for any outdoor plans... it should be warm, with highs in the upper 80s... and we'll see some sunshine this afternoon.

Well... why not start off the same way we did yesterday? Showing you the unbelieveable images of the heaviest rain DYING before it got to the Kansas City Metro area? First, the impressive squall line heading towards us at 9:30 last night:

june 17 squall.jpg

Now... what it looked like as it moved from West to East across the Metro around midnight. While those of us on the West side picked up SOME rainfall... those on the East didn't get much at all:

June 17 bust.jpg

Here are some of the rainfall amounts from around the area. Once again, very hit-and-miss:

KCI: .08"
DOWNTOWN: TRACE
OVERLAND PARK:
OLATHE: .38"
LEES SUMMIT:
TOPEKA: .76"
LAWRENCE: .56"
MANHATTAN: .72
EMPORIA: 1.08"
SEDALIA: .23"
KNOB NOSTER: .23"
ST. JOSEPH: .12"
CHILLICOTHE: .04"

The computer models are picking up on the potential for a few showers later tonight for those of you in our northern counties. We will watch it... but it does not look overly impressive. Here it is, via the NAM:

june 17 nam.gif
Click to enlarge

Otherwise, we are still expecting a warm-up this week! 90s for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

We are going to start a fun contest here on the WEATHER BLOG. I will post the details later today! :)
Have a good one!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:09 AM | Comments (4)

 June 17, 2006

Hold On!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 86
LOW: 66

Well... there it is... showing up on radar! It looks like the line of thunderstorms we have been watching all evening WILL make it here! I mean, it's already 1/2 way here from Topeka... so between 10:30pm and midnight, it will race across the Metro! Thank you to those of you that washed your cars, and watered your lawns. :)

You can expect some pretty good downpours... some of these thunderstorms have been dropping anywhere from a quarter to a half of an inch as they move through. But it's one thin line... so that's it! Maybe 30min of rain, and it's over. As the storms initially enter your area... you may experience gusty winds, but the severe threat has deminshed. It looks like the SPC will allow the watch to expire.

Let us know how much rain you get... and remember... beggars can't be choosers... :)
See ya tomorrow,
Jamie

Posted by at 9:46 PM | Comments (4)

THUNDERSTORM WATCH

We now have a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH for some of our Kansas counties:

june 17 tstorm watch.gif

It is in association with that line of developing thunderstorms... it goes until midnight. In the WATCH area... be on the lookout for heavy downpours, gusty winds, and hail with any thunderstorms that do form. We have also had reports of cold air funnels in Northeast Kansas. Check out NBC Action Weather Plus for more on this unique weather phenomenon!

Jamie

Posted by at 6:08 PM | Comments (7)

Not Everyone...

Some of you are seeing some pretty good thunderstorms this afternoon! They have been concentrated to the Southern portion of the viewing area. Here is a look at ESP as of 4:20pm. Click on the image below to get the most current image:

june 17 esp.jpg

The upper low is still to our west... and as it swings through overnight, we will continue the chance of scattered thunderstorms. You can see the SPC is thinking of issuing a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH in Kansas:

june 17 watch.gif

We will keep an eye on it. It would be nice if EVERYONE got in on the action, huh??
Jamie

Posted by at 4:20 PM | Comments (6)

Weekend Forecast

Good moring, Bloggers!

This is the first day of our new weekend morning shift! From now on, I will be here doing cut-ins to the Weekend Today show... AND updating Weather Plus. That means more blogging! Yeay! :)

Do you believe what happened overnight, as that large area of thunderstorms moved our way? It was pretty depressing, if you wanted rain. First, what the radar looked like at 10PM:

Radar Image June17.jpg

One look at that, and you might think we'd get hit! Well... this pattern just doesn't work that way for us. Now... what the radar looked like this morning as those thunderstorms moved through the Metro:

Radar Image June17Later.jpg


The thunderstorm complex REALLY weakened as it moved into air that was just more stable. So... consider yourself lucky if you picked up early morning rain! Here are some rainfall numbers from around the area so far today:

KCI: .03"
DOWNTOWN: TRACE
PLAZA: .01"
ST. JOSEPH: TRACE
TOPEKA: .10"
LAWRENCE: .17"
OLATHE: .17"
MANHATTAN: .32"
EMPORIA: .28"

There is an upper level low located at the Kansas/Nebraska border this morning:
june 17 500 first.gif
Click to enlarge

That low will move southeast... passing just south of Kansas City tonight into early Sunday morning:

june 17 500.gif
Click to enlarge

As we get a little daytime heating, we will probably see scattered thunderstorms develop this afternoon. It does not look like everyone will see rain, but those that do get a thunderstorm could get some pretty good amounts. There is not a huge threat for severe weather today, but gusty winds/small hail are possible. So, not a complete wash-out... but keep an eye to the sky if you have outdoor plans today!

Have a good one!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:20 AM | Comments (9)

 June 16, 2006

To rain or not to rain?

The latest NAM model finally has us in some rain this weekend. With an upper low spinning our way, although it really is a weak system, it should rain. At this time of year it will shock me if we don't have at least one good thunderstorm sometime by Sunday morning. But, I have been shocked many times in this pattern.

More later with the new data.

Gary

Posted by at 3:32 PM | Comments (10)

 June 15, 2006

An interesting question and this is working again.

The comments are seemingly all coming back in again. Below is a question from Jon about the flood of 1993 weather pattern:

Gary,

Now that you have presented your weather pattern theory, What is your take on the flooding in 1993 we had across the midwest in relation to your pattern? What happend that year with the pattern to cause such an extreme event? I believe you were in Kansas City at that time, and rather new to the area then, what a way to come to KC!!

Jon,

I haven't studied that year yet. But, I do remember the weather pattern well. We had a great and very exciting weather pattern during season 1992-1993. So, the flood of '93 occurred during that same pattern that set up in the fall of 1992. I still need to go back and look at all of the maps.

The flooding suddenly ended by the end of July and early August when the rain shut off. This is exactly when my theory says the weather pattern ends. So, it all fits. And, let's hope for a pattern like 1992-1993 next year. I don't want that extreme flooding, but I would like some normal storm systems.

Gary

Posted by at 10:34 AM | Comments (9)

Blog troubles and update

Good morning everyone,

We haven't received a comment in over 24 hours, so I believe something is wrong with our system. Please be patient while we get it fixed. There is a chance that it could take until Monday to get this problem resolved. Hopefully we will get it fixed by this afternoon.

The weather pattern is still strange. It is trying very hard to settle into summer, and at the same time we are in the part of the pattern that produced our coldest weather during the winter season. The battle will eventually be won by summer, but let's see how the next two weeks pan out.

We have been tracking a weak storm that may close off and sit near the area for a few days. A capping layer is moving in today and Friday. This cap gets eroded away by Saturday and with no cap, a front near by, and weak upper level storm widespread convection (thunderstorms) should be the result. Below is the 60 hour forecast for total rainfall ending Sunday. A lot of rain forecasted for a large part of Kansas. Something still seems wrong and it will be amazing if this rainfall forecast verifies. Maybe it will shift a bit east and we will get in on it this weekend. It will depend on where the front ends up stalling, if a storm actually develops and closes off in the upper levels, and how much moisture gets pulled into the system.

GFS rain 60 hours valid Fri night through Sunday.gif
Click to enlarge (Precipitation forecast Friday night through Sunday)

After this moves by all kinds of solutions are out there in the models. As I said it is a battle between summer trying to settle in, as it should now, and this colder high amplitude part of our pattern still going on, although it is now an extremley weakened state.

The overall pattern that has been cycling since October, but I believe it falls apart and ends by early August. So, this horrible pattern that we have been in doesn't have much life left. It is still there now, however. Hopefully it has something in it to produce some excitement for a change.

Until we fix the comments problem you can email us at weather@nbcactionnews.com.

Gary

Posted by at 8:08 AM | Comments (5)

 June 14, 2006

Uh oh, changes!

Good afternoon,

What does this map mean? It is valid Saturday afternoon.

GFS Saturday.gif
Click to enlarge (valid Saturday evening)

This is the 500 mb forecast from the latest GFS run. Guess what it means? It means there is NO upper low hanging back. NONE. And you can see this by looking at the upper trough that is just swinging through. So, this changes the entire extended forecast, if it is correct. The NAM and UKMET models have been keeping the waves progressive the entire time. What it means for us is one chance of rain Saturday and that is it, until the next system comes by Tuesday or so.

Let's see if this trend continues. The last 8 GFS runs had upper lows hanging back but not today.

More later on.....At least there is a chance of thunderstorms on Saturday, and this could still change again. Our horrible weather pattern continues.

Gary

Posted by at 11:47 AM | Comments (6)

 June 13, 2006

Latest data

Good evening,

The latest GFS run has the upper low and it forms and slowly moves across the plains early in the week. But, it doesn't have the cold fronts that the recent runs had. This doesn't mean it is correct, but summer does begin next week and the flow aloft continues to fall apart gradually so I am concerned. Our best chances for rain could come from this storm early in the week which is suspect. Then, we will need a cold front so I am worried.

Have a great night. If you have Satellite then you can't see our new NBC ACTION WEATHER PLUS weather channel. But, you can see it by simply having an antenna on your TV and tuning it in.

Have a great night, and hopefully the weather will get exciting soon.

Gary

Posted by at 6:03 PM | Comments (6)

A series of cold fronts!

Good morning everyone,

We debuted NBC ACTION WEATHER PLUS yesterday. It is on channel 1442 on Time Warner. Comcast and Sunflower will have it on their digital tier on June 27th. We are very happy with the way it looks and I think you will like it as well.

The weather pattern is fascinating. As ridiculously frustrating as this weather pattern is for us it always keeps me entertained. Remember weeks and months ago I predicted that just as summer tries to settle in we will be primed for the colder part of our pattern. Well, it is here, sort of. We had the cool spell as expected the past three days with all kinds of rain around us. Many of us were left fairly dry again and at the same time over 6 inches of rain has fallen in places that really needed it.

Well, this morning we have a three model trend back to exactly what I am expecting. It may be difficult since summer officially begins next week. The jet stream is retreating, but battling this high amplitude colder part of the pattern. I see at least 3 cold fronts making it into Kansas and Missouri. As we move into late June and July the cold fronts will stop coming if it is going to be a long hot dry summer. But, we do not see this for the first part of summer. With these cold fronts should come good chances for rain. So, let's start with three good chances for rain with one to two inch potential out of each one. The first one is still about a week away, so this still makes it suspect. The cold fronts could stall just north of us. Where they stall there could be a lot of rain. So, I am optimistic this morning for some good chances of rain soon.

There is also an upper level low that could develop near Kansas this weekend as the jet stream plows into the west and then lifts north leaving behind a weak upper low. This is usually a wet pattern for us, but this year I wonder. Below is the 500 mb forecast from last nights GFS run. This clearly shows the upper low closing off and placing us in south flow aloft. This would break down the cap and eventually produce heavy rain near by. A lot of if's at this moment, but once again keeping us entertained.

gfs upper low.gif
Click to enlarge ( 500 mb flow valid Saturday evening)

Once again, click on the map to see it better. There is an upper low forming southwest of us near the Texas Panhandle. This is a system that has yet to come ashore out west. So, there are many questions. This is something we will track on NBC Action Plus in detail and of course on the air on NBC ACTION NEWS tonight.

Have a great day! The winds will be light and it is just packaged into one of our best days of the year.

Gary

Posted by at 6:36 AM | Comments (12)

 June 12, 2006

Weekend recap

Gooooood morning everyone,

This past weekend, for me, was about as frustrating as I have ever experienced. A thunderstorm formed at 10 PM over Overland Park. It then intensified, produced large hail and crossed the state line heading towards Blue Springs. There was so much lightning and yet I had no rain in my rain gauge until 3 AM when thunderstorms extended south into most areas for a brief time. Northern Missouri had the brunt of the weekend rain with widespread 4 to 6 inch rainfall amounts stretching across the northern 1/4th of the state. Where it rained it stayed in the 60s to lower 70s Sunday, which is what I was expecting through the KC metro area but we stayed just south of the front until evening. The cooler air has finally taken over but it should start moving out tomorrow.

This morning thunderstorms are widespread over Kansas, but we will be left dry. In fact, I don't know when our next chance of rain will arrive. This can change fast so we'll see how things line up in the next week.

More later. Have a great day. It should be a nice one with clouds and a northeast breeze.

Gary

Posted by at 7:21 AM | Comments (17)

 June 11, 2006

Alberto is Born

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 82
LOW: 62

It is official... Tropical Storm Alberto is here:

june 11 sat.jpg
Click to loop

Here is the latest info:
MOVEMENT: NORTH NEAR 7 MPH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 MB

There is no real strengthening forecasted over the next day or so... and Alberto is expected to make landfall along the West coast of Florida on Tuesday. If I make it there, I will try to bring an update :)

As for weather back home in KC... expect quiet conditions tonight. With an easterly flow, we may see some low clouds roll in overnight. That would slow a warm-up for Monday... if we start off cloudy. If we don't start off cloudy... we may start off foggy. Soooo another tricky day for the temperature forecast! We're going with 80 degrees for a high right now, as we should be into some sun for the afternoon.

Here are some pictures from last night's thunderstorm activity:

june 10 tstorm.JPG
This first one is from Tim in Greenwood, MO. He took this looking to the south Saturday evening. He did not have any rain at that point, but was cheering for the CAP to break!



june 10 hail.JPG
Doug Bebee sent us this hail picture... he took it Saturday night around 10:30 as a large thunderstorm brought hail to much of the immediate Metro!



june 10 golf.JPG
This was sent in by George Throener. He lives in Brookside, and gathered these hailstones from his yard. Wait... that's not a hail stone... that's a golfball! It illustrates how big the hail was!



june 10 quarter.JPG
A viewer I will call Dr. Seuss sent in this picture. This piece was found right next to his car in Merriam! Yikes!



june 10 cell.JPG
Hail the size of cell phones! That is what fell in Roeland Park, KS! Adrian O’Hara sent this one in... she says it is the largest hail she has seen in her 26 years of living in Kansas City. Wow!

Thanks!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:11 PM | Comments (2)

Flooding Rains

Yes, flooding rains... just not HERE. Story of the year, right? Here is a look at where the heaviest rain fell overnight:

june 11 totals.gif
Click to enlarge

The 5+" did happen... just north and east of here. It's very frustrating! At least we got something, though! Today will be cooler, with highs in the mid to upper 70s this afternoon.

Tropical Depression #1 is still churning... it is pretty disorganized, though. If it strengthens into a TS today, it will become "Alberto". I am traveling to Tampa tomorrow.... just let it stay away long enough for me to get there... then bring it on. :)

ts 1.gif
Click to enlarge

Have a good one!
Jamie


Posted by at 9:01 AM | Comments (10)

 June 10, 2006

Baffled again...then again thunderstorms are forming

There is an explanation to what is going on tonight. But, I don't even want to go there at this moment. Jamie has the unfortunate task of trying to explain this on the 10 PM newscast in a few minutes. The models keep trying to place us in an area of development and so far NOTHING.

There is an area of thunderstorms moving across northwest Kansas. This is heading our way and the favored time for warm advection night time thunderstorm development is after 10 PM. So, there is still hope. But, the frustration for weather enthusiasts continues. I will be emcee of the 19th annual Dog-n-Jog on the Plaza in the morning. Of all times it better not rain then.

UH OH! THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AT 10 PM.

Here is a look at the rainfall estimate from that one thunderstorm cluser that moved over the Plaza:

june 10 doppler estimate.gif

That is more than an inch and a half in an hour!

Gary

Posted by at 9:49 PM | Comments (14)

Flash Flood Update

Some of our northern counties have been taken OUT of the FLASH FLOOD WATCH. It is still in effect for counties along and south of the Missouri River:

june10_flood2.jpg


Posted by at 9:04 PM | Comments (5)

Evening Update

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 91
LOW: 75

Hello, there! Just a quick update to our weather situation this evening! First, the front is now to our south... the winds have shifted... you can see it on the surface map below:

june 10 sfc.gif
Click to enlarge

It looks like the heaviest rain/strongest storms will be for the southern part of the viewing area for this reason. It is still not 100%... something is weird about this set up. But we do have a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until midnight for the counties highlighted below:

june10_severe.jpg

We also have a FLASH FLOOD WATCH in effect until Sunday morning for a good chunk of the viewing area:

june10_flood.jpg

Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed over towards Columbia... and it looks like they are trying to back-build. But again, this looks like it would affect the southern part of the viewing area:

june 10 esp.jpg

There is also thunderstorm activity down in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas that we have to watch:

june 10 esp south.jpg

Anything that does get going will initially have the potential for damaging winds/hail... and there is also that overnight flooding threat. Again, the development would be between now and 8 or 9pm. We will keep an eye on it and keep you posted of any warnings!

UPDATE! See the dashed line I drew into the radar? This is an OUTFLOW boundary from thunderstorms. We have to watch along this area for t-storm potential.

june 10 radar image.gif
Click to enlarge


Jamie

Posted by at 5:35 PM | Comments (12)

Tropical Depression #1 and thunderstorms

Good afternoon everyone. First of all the first tropical depression of the season has formed and it could be our first named storm within 24 hours. More on this later.

We have a cap problem today. It will be later today when the cap may break, but where. I have concerns that it will break east of Kansas City first and we could have a hard time getting thunderstorms going. Once the cap breaks and the first thunderstorms develop they could then back build as the evening progresses to west of the state line. This type of situation often produces over 4 inches of rain somewhere.

Jamie will be tracking it this evening. Our 24 hour weather channel NBC ACTION WEATHER PLUS debuts on Monday morning at 9 AM.

Gary

Posted by at 12:37 PM | Comments (15)

 June 9, 2006

New Data this evening

Below are two maps: The first one is the surface map valid 1 PM Saturday. The front is really in extreme northwest Missouri and this would place it north of KCI at development time. Development time is around 6 to 7 PM when I expect the thunderstorms to form. This should place us in prime position for thunderstorms Saturday night. Then, the second map is Sunday morning showing a convectively induced vort max near the state line Sunday morning. This is a very strange set ups. But, our weather this year has come from very strange set ups.

Surface 1 PM Sat.bmp

500 flow Sunday morning.bmp
Click map to enlarge

It will be an interesting Saturday. But, will we have an exciting evening?

Gary

Posted by at 9:27 PM | Comments (3)

The pattern continues and it is amazing

I hope you are all believers in my weather pattern theory. To me it is just amazing. To many meteorologists around the nation there is no way a pattern in October could be the same one in June. But..........IT IS! At least we believe it is and it gives us a huge advantage in predicting short and long term weather events. We are literally going into the mid to late October/December/February/late April part of the pattern. What happens specifically can't be exactly the same each time through the cycle, but it is often similar. This part of the pattern is about the only part of the pattern capable of colder air. It lasts about 17 days beginning with a two or three day cool spell, then it heats up to be followed by a 5 or 6 day cool spell which could arrive close to the first day of summer. This June version though is much weaker than any of the other versions and this is likely the last time we will EVER see this pattern again. The next time we cycle through to this part of the pattern it will be gone as I believe the weather pattern dies out as we get close or move into August. Then we are in chaotic transition until the next years pattern sets up in October and early November. I can't wait as this is just a horrible, yet interesting, pattern. We just don't get many exciting weather events. Yet it was able to produce a huge snowstorm in December and some major tornado outbreaks early in the season.

We may be about to have an exciting event. Our best chance of rain will come along and near a slowly sagging cold front that will move across the region Saturday and Saturday night. After it passes Sunday and Monday are those two cooler days at the beginning of this cycle. The front should be in prime position for many of us to experience some very heavy rain. Let's see how it sets up on Saturday night as we have to break a cap to get things rolling. Someone could very well get more than 5 inches of rain. I just hope we get at least one inch of rain.

Have a great weekend! We will be watching this situation closely.

Gary

Posted by at 4:17 PM | Comments (8)

 June 8, 2006

The Strange Pattern Affects Corn & Soybeans

In the last blog entry Gary discussed the strange weather pattern. Whether, we here in Kansas City get decent rain is certainly a question. However, I want to talk about the corn belt which includes Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana & Ohio. The pattern is strange, but will include a front that will be wavering back & forth the next 7 days between I-70 & I-80. It will extend from Wyoming or Colorado to Ohio. A westerly to northwesterly flow will occur over this front. This time of year this means many clusters of T-Storms will run along this front. Every day for the next 7 days there will be T-Storms somewhere in the corn belt (See total rainfall forecast for Friday through Sunday from the NAM model). This shows widespread 1-2" rains for much of the belt. This means the corn & just recently planted soybeans will be growing like weeds the next 2-3 weeks. The most important part of the corn development occurs in early to mid July (pollination). This is when the kernels are filled. This is when rain is needed most. So this young growing season is going very well. However, July will tell the tale of the corn crop.

NAM Precip June 7th.gif
Click to Enlarge

By the way, my son Sklyer is almost 7 weeks old. Time flies when you do not get much sleep! I will try to get a picture or two on the blog during the next couple of days. We are looking for a nanny 3-4 days a week beginning in about 1 month. If anybody is interested or you know of any suggestions please do not hesitate to comment with your ideas.

Thank you,

Jeff Penner

Posted by at 7:48 PM | Comments (6)

Strange weather pattern

Below are three maps. The first is the surface map from this mornings GFS valid Sunday morning. The second is the 500 mb map valid at the same time showing the big upper high over western Canada. And the third is the 60 hour precipitation forecast from Sunday through Tuesday.

GFS 72 valid 12z Sun.gif
Click to enlarge
GFS 500 72.gif
Click to enlarge
60 hr precp Sun Tue.gif
click to enlarge

A huge split is developing as we had anticipated a week or so ago. What will it mean at this time of year? It could mean anything from a few wind shifts and some temperature fluctuations to wild thunderstorms and huge temperature fluctuations. It has the potential to become very exciting and at the same time it could be extremely frustrating.

It all begins this weekend with a strong June cold front sagging in from the north. It will likely be in the 50s and 60s north of the front and near 100 south of the front. This front will likely move through us Saturday night and someone could get some significant thunderstorm activity. Then after it stalls near the Oklahoma Kansas border it could set someone up into a zone of thunderstorm activity for days. It is just too early to tell who will get the action.

We will know more as it gets closer. Stay tuned....

Gary Lezak

Posted by at 11:48 AM | Comments (8)

 June 7, 2006

Some Pictures

We are in for a beautiful, warm afternoon!! We will see plenty of sunshine and temperatures near 90 degrees today! Because it is going to be so quiet, here are some great viewer photos to share with you! All of these pictures are of the thunderstorms last night. They affected the Eastern portion of our area... but the towering clouds were visible from Kansas!

This first one is a beautiful picture sent in by Melvin Cureton:
june 6 distant storm.JPG
He livesjust east of Lawson, Missouri, and he took this photo from the back of his house with the storm clouds reflecting in the pond. Pretty cool!!


Here is a picture from Randa Garrett of Lenexa:
june 6 storm.JPG
Randa captured the storm clouds from last night at 119th and Metcalf, looking east. She said there was a lot of impressive lightning!


This next picture is from Dana Miller of Basehor, Kansas:
june 6 from lawrence.JPG
This picture was taken from Leavenworth looking East.


And this is a great one sent in by Jim Shilt... his son, Andrew took this photo:

june 6 storm over houses.JPG



Here is another picture from Cindy Williams of Chillicothe, Missouri:

june 6 chillicothe.JPG

She took this picture looking due south, and says the clouds were fantastic!


Here is a picture from Kristen:
june 6 olathe.JPG
She took this one from Olathe, looking east.


Now take a look at this beatiful picture from MaryJo and Terry Ostenberg:
june 6 farm cloud.JPG
They took this around 8 pm Tuesday. They live near Gower and this was looking to the east.


And this photo was sent in by Curtis Olinger from Lenexa:
june 6 curtis.JPG


Now some of us ALSO had thunderstorms on Monday night. Remember the big MCV that came over the Western 1/2 of the Metro? That one dumped hail in Louisburg:
june 5 hail.JPG
Thanks to Kevin Ferguson for sending this one in!


And of course, the thunderstorms had lots of vivid lightning:
june 6 lightning.JPG
Drew Jack took this picture in Overland Park on Monday night.

Thanks to everyone for the great photos!
Enjoy your day!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:59 AM | Comments (11)

 June 6, 2006

Thunderstorms this afternoon?

Good morning everyone. Yesterday was rather exciting with the MCV moving right down the state line. It still left a few areas dry. The outlook for the next 15 days is for it to heat up, then turn colder and very wet. The potential for significant severe weather is also rather likely perhaps on two or three different days before severe weather season winds down. The cold part of the cycle will likely create some interesting set ups as we move into the middle of the month. More on this tomorrow as we have another potential for thunderstorms again today.

The cold front is still north and west of Kansas City and won't pass through Kansas City until later this afternoon or this evening. This should place us in a favorable spot for thunderstorm development. Severe thunderstorms are possible.

Let us know what you experience if these thunderstorms materialize later today.

Gary

Posted by at 6:44 AM | Comments (15)

 June 5, 2006

The weather pattern!

There may be thunderstorms near the weak cold front Tuesday and we will track it during the morning. More importantly is the entire weather pattern that continues to cycle. I don't know if you are a believer yet, but it is fascinating to me. If you are a regular blogger then you have gone through this entire season with us. This weather pattern set up in October and November and it continues to cycle as summer approaches. Remember the cold outbreak in December and in February, then in late April and could it possibly happen in mid to late June. YES! Because it is the SAME pattern. But a cold outbreak this time could result in very wet and cool, or dry and cooler. I lean towards the wet and cool at this moment.

More later.....

Gary

Posted by at 11:45 PM | Comments (2)

MCV spinning just north of KC

The MCV that was generated by the complex of thunderstorms this morning is now moving overhead. A severe thunderstorm has been on the comma head of the MCV and is tracking just west of the state line this evening. Most of us will have some nice rainfall and then we will concentrate on the next system for later tonight.
doppler.jpg

You can see where the center of circulation is located.....near Weston Missouri, or just south of there. Very interesting evening of weather. Do you agree?

Gary

Posted by at 6:55 PM | Comments (19)

Leftover MCV is moving in

An MCV, or mesoscale convective vort max, is moving southeast and will cross northwest Missouri as it weakens. It has been strong enough to regenerate thunderstorms in a line across northwest Missouri this afternoon. So, Kansas City, again, misses it by one county to our north. The MCV was generated by a convective complex early this morning. We have to watch for development further south during the next few hours. Then we focus to our north and west for later tonight.

Gary

Posted by at 2:14 PM | Comments (5)

Moderate risk today

The SPC has put a large part of Kansas in a moderate risk today. I think the thunderstorms will develop north and west of us where there is a significant threat of severe thunderstorms. They will organize into an MCS and then blast someone. It is our turn, but we will see. More later today.

Thunderstorms are developing just west of us at this time. A weak disturbance and outflow boundary is heading this way. We will have to watch for some development this afternoon close by.

Gary

Posted by at 12:18 PM

Watch those Nebraska T-

Radar Monday morning.gif Click map to enlarge (7 AM this morning)

Good morning, I hope everyone had a great weekend. If you watched Friday nights weathercast then Sunday mornings rain would have been no surprise at all. I had painted in thunderstorms down the state line at 5:30 AM Sunday during the 10 PM newscast and it is exactly what happened and then we had the affect of those morning thunderstorms all day with a beautiful Sunday afternoon.

Now, above you can see thunderstorms in Nebraska. This is a fairly weak MCS (Mesoscale convective system). If it strengthens at all then we will get blasted this afternoon. But, if there is a weakening trend it could just fall apart. Conditions aloft favor this system to turn directly towards us. So, will we see just leftover clouds or a blast of thunderstorms this afternoon? Let's see how we feel later this morning. This is a NOWCASTING type of system. Some people give forecasters such a hard time. But, forecasting a system like this must be "Nowcasted" and if it holds together then we can let you know a few hours in advance at the most. In the mean time we put a percentage chance around 50%. It could go down to 0% in an hour, or if it holds together then we can update that chance. We will be tracking it.

Gary

Posted by at 7:09 AM | Comments (8)

 June 4, 2006

More Thunderstorms to Watch

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 82
LOW: 64

We had a pretty good cluster of thunderstorms come through early this morning. That brought some of you anywhere from a tenth to almost a half inch of rain! The batch of showers pretty much hugged the stateline... and those farther west or east did not see much at all.

As for Monday... we are looking to start off dry, and to be dry most of the day. Then the chance of thunderstorms increases again in the evening/overnight. Here is a look at what could be approaching thunderstorms Monday night:

june 4 nam.gif
Click to enlarge

Hopefully they will have something exciting to track! Otherwise, not much to talk about as it then looks like we will go through a quiet couple of days and we could even heat up again by the end of the week!

Here is some interesting news out of China:

June 2, 2006 - The rainy season has come to northern China, and it’s a brave new world out there. Actually the natural rainy season doesn’t start until July. But the season of man-made rain is upon us, and Chinese rainmakers have been busy. Over the past month they've mobilized cloud-seeding aircraft, artillery and rockets to enhance rainfall. "We've ordered technicians to try to make it rain again today, but so far they haven’t reported back on the results," says Zhang Qiang, a businesslike woman who heads the Beijing Weather Modification Office (yes, that’s the official name of a real Chinese government agency). "We did it many times last week to increase the rainfall."

Not content with simply making it rain, now China's weather modifiers have taken on another meterological mission: to help guarantee perfect weather when Beijing hosts the Olympic Games in 2008. "In China, we haven’t done this type of thing on a very large scale yet," says Zhang during an interview in a west Beijing compound housing five antiaircraft guns used to shoot chemicals into the clouds. "The Russians have experience creating good weather, and we can learn something from them. We still have two more years for testing. I’m sure our preparations for the Games will go well."

Zhang's office, which employs 30 people, is part of the Beijing municipal government and the nationwide China Meteorological Administration. Her unit uses two aircraft and 20 artillery and rocket-launching bases to help modify weather around the city. Springtime is the busiest season for agricultural purposes. But more and more, Zhang and her colleagues are experimenting with weather modification to try to create blue skies. Toward this end, they’ve spent nearly a month and a half total researching the effects of certain chemical activators on different sizes of cloud formations and at different altitudes. Chinese meteorologists claim that similar efforts helped create good weather for a number of past VIP events in China, including the World Expo in Yunnan, the Asian Games in Shanghai and the Giant Panda Festival in Sichuan.

Today Chinese rainmakers are among the world’s busiest. Beijing's nationwide weather-modification budget exceeds $50 million a year. The communist regime’s 11th Five Year Plan, which kicked off this year, calls for the creation of 48 billion to 60 billion cubic meters of artificial rain annually (somewhere between 12 trillion to 16 trillion gallons of water). Beijing needs it. Right now is when fruit trees and crops need life-giving water; the parched North China plain has been stalked by drought since 1998. Normal precipitation is between 22 and 24 inches annually, says Zhang, but Beijing had only 18 inches last year. And drought continued around China’s capital city this spring, “so we’re increasing rainfall using our own means,? says Zhang. “But man-made efforts can’t solve the drought problem altogether; they can increase rainfall by only 10 to 15 percent.?

And tampering with Mother Nature has been known to backfire. Cloud-seeding shells and rockets have sometimes gone astray, damaging homes and injuring inhabitants. City dwellers have raised concerns about environmental pollution, though meteorologists insist the silver iodide is used in such tiny quantities that it brings no negative health consequences. And the rainmaking scramble became so intense in 2004 that five Henan province villages reportedly squabbled over “cloud theft? after they all seeded the clouds simultaneously but only one district received the lion’s share of rain.

The idea of creating good weather received political support from China’s former party head Jiang Zemin after he attended a 2000 celebration in Russia marking the 55th anniversary of the end of World War II. Jiang was impressed when the Russians induced rain to successfully clear up clouds for the ceremony. “When he came back, Jiang said China should do the same thing,? says Zhang, “We’re trying our best to be ready for the Olympics. Already we’ve succeeded in clearing up small cloud formations.? Dissipating larger formations that cover hundreds or thousands of square miles remain a challenge, she says. At any rate, heavy rains typically aren’t so prevalent in August, the month when the 2008 Games are scheduled. So when the time comes, China’s weather modifiers may ironically get a little help from Mother Nature.

Have a good one!
Jamie

Posted by at 9:37 PM | Comments (2)

 June 3, 2006

Rain Chances

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 87
LOW: 62

What a nice day! With highs in the upper 80s, and dew points in the lower 50s, it sure felt nice outside! We had plenty of sunshine with some high clouds this afternoon. Not much has changed in the forecast... we are still under the northwest flow, and still watching for thunderstorms to develop in the northern Plains and head our way. Here is a look at the late afternoon radar image...

june 3 radar.gif
Click to enlarge

Thunderstorms are already beginning to develop. We will have to watch these as we head into the overnight. The best chance of moring rain will be on the Kansas side... with about a 30% chance at the state line. Then, Sunday afternoon... we will likely have "outflow boundaries" around from whatever morning thunderstorms occured. Outflow boundaries separate thunderstorm-cooled air from the surrounding air... and can act as mini-cold fronts. They can hang around for quite awhile after the thunderstorms are gone... and new thunderstorms often develop along outflow boundaries. So it is something to watch for Sunday afternoon. I have kept a 40% chance of thunderstorms for this reason. Not everyone will see rain... but much like last week... anyone that DOES... could see heavy rain.

Keep me posted on your rainfall totals if you get any!
Thanks!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:05 PM | Comments (7)

 June 2, 2006

Heavy rain in the forecast?

Good Friday Night in the big town!

Below is the latest GFS forecast rainfall for the early to middle part of next week. It is LESS than this mornings run, but the trend is there.
gfs_p60_156s.gif
Click to enlarge
It isn't quite summertime yet. Summer begins in less than three weeks and June is often one of the wettest months. Now, with this pattern we are in I still have concerns. There should be high dewpoints, a front near by and us on the edge of the ridge. It sounds like thunderstorms to me. And, before this sets up we have some potential for thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.

Have a great weekend and think POSITIVE.
fuzzyphoto.jpg


Oh, one more thing. I have included a picture of me and all of my dogs benefitting "No more homeless pets", and The "Free Health Clinic". Go to the following address and vote if you feel like it:

https://www.kcfree.org/FuzzyFotos/photos.asp

Gary

Posted by at 5:38 PM | Comments (1)

Dry For Today!

Good morning!

As you read in Gary's blog entry below... once again yesterday we had thunderstorms in the area. These were ISOLATED... so most of you did not see rain. But those that did... picked up quite a bit once again! Doppler radar estimates across eastern portions of Jackson and Cass Counties shows that three inches of rain fell! Heavy rains between Grain Valley and Lone Jack!

Today we are expecting DRY conditions as a large surface high is building in. You can see it on the surface map below:

june 2 sfc.gif
Click to enlarge

I call high pressure our fair weather friend, as air is sinking... and we typically see more sunshine! When I do school talks to local kids, I always show them this graphic, to help them remember the difference between high and low pressure:

High Low Pressure.bmp

I usually get a good giggle out of that one!

High pressure will be with us at the surface through Saturday. Now on Sunday, we have to watch an area to our Northwest. Gary mentioned it a few days ago... There is an upper level ridge in place over the Southwest US, with a clockwise flow around that ridge:

june 2 500.gif
Click to enlarge

There could be an ongoing cluster of thunderstorms over the Dakotas or Nebraska Saturday night into Sunday. If it holds together, the flow around that ridge would have them drifting our way. The best chance of rain would be Sunday for us... it does not look like an all-day thing, just an hour or two. Here is the NAM showing what could happen:

june 2 nam.gif
Click to enlarge

Stay tuned, and I will keep you updated through the weekend!

Since things have been SO quiet around here, severe weather-wise, I thought I would share a little Friday Fun with you. It is a warning simulator! YOU get to sit "in the hot seat"... and go through a severe weather situation... issuing warnings! You will be scored, so pay attention!! Here is the link:
HOT SEAT WARNING SIMULATOR

Quite the fun game! Let me know what you think!

Lastly, a lot of you have questions about our Weather Plus Channel, and how to get it. Our agreement with the local cable carriers states:

"The multicast channel (WeatherPlus) will either be adjacent to or in as close proximity as possible to the current KSHB-DT High-Definition channel."

Everest will be on 631

Time Warner will be on 1442

Comcast - not sure but will either be adjacent to or in as close proximity as possible to the current KSHB-DT High-Definition channel.

Have a Fabulous Friday!!
Jamie


Posted by at 5:54 AM | Comments (5)

 June 1, 2006

Developing thunderstorms near Falls City

Good afternoon,

I am about to take Windy, Stormy, and Breezy out to the JC Nichols Fountain for a photo shoot. Jeff Penner just called me to tell me about developing thunderstorms over southeast Nebraska. These are forming along the main and final disturbance which has been causing wet weather through the area recently. This disturbance will pass through later this afternoon and this is the time of year for this kind of thing to happen. The thunderstorms are strengthening so let's track them in. If they hold together it could be quite exciting later today.

Gary

Posted by at 12:43 PM | Comments (9)

 
 

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