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A series of cold fronts!
Good morning everyone,
We debuted NBC ACTION WEATHER PLUS yesterday. It is on channel 1442 on Time Warner. Comcast and Sunflower will have it on their digital tier on June 27th. We are very happy with the way it looks and I think you will like it as well.
The weather pattern is fascinating. As ridiculously frustrating as this weather pattern is for us it always keeps me entertained. Remember weeks and months ago I predicted that just as summer tries to settle in we will be primed for the colder part of our pattern. Well, it is here, sort of. We had the cool spell as expected the past three days with all kinds of rain around us. Many of us were left fairly dry again and at the same time over 6 inches of rain has fallen in places that really needed it.
Well, this morning we have a three model trend back to exactly what I am expecting. It may be difficult since summer officially begins next week. The jet stream is retreating, but battling this high amplitude colder part of the pattern. I see at least 3 cold fronts making it into Kansas and Missouri. As we move into late June and July the cold fronts will stop coming if it is going to be a long hot dry summer. But, we do not see this for the first part of summer. With these cold fronts should come good chances for rain. So, let's start with three good chances for rain with one to two inch potential out of each one. The first one is still about a week away, so this still makes it suspect. The cold fronts could stall just north of us. Where they stall there could be a lot of rain. So, I am optimistic this morning for some good chances of rain soon.
There is also an upper level low that could develop near Kansas this weekend as the jet stream plows into the west and then lifts north leaving behind a weak upper low. This is usually a wet pattern for us, but this year I wonder. Below is the 500 mb forecast from last nights GFS run. This clearly shows the upper low closing off and placing us in south flow aloft. This would break down the cap and eventually produce heavy rain near by. A lot of if's at this moment, but once again keeping us entertained.
Click to enlarge ( 500 mb flow valid Saturday evening)
Once again, click on the map to see it better. There is an upper low forming southwest of us near the Texas Panhandle. This is a system that has yet to come ashore out west. So, there are many questions. This is something we will track on NBC Action Plus in detail and of course on the air on NBC ACTION NEWS tonight.
Have a great day! The winds will be light and it is just packaged into one of our best days of the year.
Gary
Posted by at June 13, 2006 6:36 AM
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So, since severe weather season ends next week... are we done with any chances of that? I understand that it can happen anytime, but nothing is forecasted? If so, has this been one of the lightest years for severe weathter in our area?
Hank,
Actually, this will go down as one of the most active severe weather seasons for us locally, since we had a much above average number of tornadoes. Unbelievably the active months were March and April. And, then almost nothing nationwide in May and June. This has been the most unusual season.
Gary
Posted by: hank at June 13, 2006 9:43 AM
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Looking at the models, the high pressure really builds in from the SE and makes for a wierd pattern next week. I think we may have another stalling front [like you said?]. With the low creating in the panhandle..I think this will bring some rain...
Scott,
It better bring some rain. But, let's see how it sets up. This mornings NAM shows a front slicing through Kansas, but it is likely too fast and linear since the upper low is not forming on this model. I expect a slower more upper "lowy" feel to the GFS run that is about to come out.
Gary
Posted by: Scott\ at June 13, 2006 10:57 AM
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WeatherPlus sounds wonderful, too bad the estimated 35% of satellite owners can't see it.
Dustin,
I am not sure how to get it on the sat dish? I will do some research.
Gary
Posted by: Dustin at June 13, 2006 11:02 AM
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Gary,
Just curious, with the Champions Tour event coming to Overland Park in two weeks - do you think that having them here will increase our chances for rain? It seems that whenever the organizers have tried to change to dates for drier weather they always get hammered with bad weather.
Therefore, do you think that these cold fronts will come through next week or could they possibly arrive the week of June 26th and messing up the golf tournament...AGAIN?
Thank you,
Bobby
Bobby,
These cold fronts are still somewhat iffy. So, let's don't worry too much. The way things have been going lately it would be nice to get some rain, but too much rain just hasn't been happening.
Gary
Posted by: Bobby at June 13, 2006 11:38 AM
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Gary,
With regards to your new 24 hour weather channel, can we expect it to show up on through our Satellite Providers? I have Dish along with there High Definition Package.
John,
I am finding out more information. At least for now the sat providers apparantly don't have enough band width to add the channels. But, if you have just a regular antenna you can actually pick up this channel (even just rabbit ears).
Gary
Posted by: John at June 13, 2006 11:45 AM
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Im so tired of this weather here in Kansas City, im just ready for fall to get here so we can get ourselves into a new pattern. Something that will bring us a amazing fall and finally some decent snows!
Bryan
Bryan,
This is why it is always so exciting in October. If you believe in my theory, which you know I do, then a new unique pattern will set up. I can't imagine a worse one than this. Can you imagine an average snow year of 20 inches? Just an average snow year would be like a 9 inch snow, then a 5 incher, a 3 incher, 3 one inchers and this doesn't even include the ice. Can't we just have an average year?
Gary
Posted by: Bryan at June 13, 2006 1:36 PM
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Action Weather Plus showed up today here in Lawrence (Sunflower Cable) on digital channel 180.
Bob
Bob,
I am glad to know. It wasn't supposed to come on until June 27th. Good news.
Gary
Posted by: Bob from Lawrence at June 13, 2006 3:53 PM
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An average year..haha! In a perfect world Gary...In a perfect world.
Bryan,
How about above average? Can you imagine?
Gary
Posted by: Bryan at June 13, 2006 4:34 PM
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Why not make the 24/7 weather channel internet streaming more folks can use it?
Dwight,
It is in the plans to make it streaming!
Gary
Posted by: Dwight at June 13, 2006 4:52 PM
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I will try not to get too excited about the weekend and next week. With the way things are going, it will set up 50 miles north of us, or 50 miles south of us. My lawn is going dormant, which I don't mind, but my young spruce tree did not put out any new buds and branches this spring, even though I've been watering it. . .just not enough general moisture I guess.
John,
Yeah, we could miss it again. Might as well not get excited.
Gary
Posted by: John at June 13, 2006 4:52 PM
Hottest day. July 13th at 2:15 pm.
Posted by: Kay Brown at June 19, 2006 11:15 AM
enter for hottest day of year Aug 10 at 430pm
Posted by: pamela rafferty at June 20, 2006 2:54 AM
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