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Hottest Day of the Summer July 29 at 4:12 p.m.

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Good Luck!

Blessings,The NWS is already "hyping" this event as a heavy rain event. Yet, based on what you just said in your blogg, one of the models is showing heavy rain SOUTH of KC. This setup is the same old thing, and then BOOM nothing happens, at least a wide spread event.

I think the POP of 90% is good, but be prepared for a bust, at least for the heavy rain.

I am glad you guys do not hug the models, because this year, they have not done well at all. I think you guys have one of the hardest jobs because you have to try and please so many people. Plus, with weather it is not a perfect science.

Because heavy rain has been in the forecast so many times, and because so many times we have had no major rain at least in the metro area, I simply don't believe the forecast. It is not you. I know a couple of times I have said you have hyped the forecast, but I realized it is not you as much as it is others, especially NWS. They are already worried about heavy rain, and with the dry conditions, I just don't think that will be a problem. I just don't believe this is going to happen. Honestly, I would rather say that and have egg on my face then believe it is going to happen and be disappointed one more time.

I think this weather pattern is about as crazy as they get. What I do not get is why this pattern only affects the KC metro area, and not the rest of the state! LOL.

Brian -Overland Park

BRIAN:
Our forecast is for some good rain SOMEWHERE in our area. A 90% chance of rain means there is a 90% chance any one location in the area will see measurable rainfall. I do think there is a pretty good shot of that happening. We will have to wait and see exactly WHERE that point lies.
Jamie

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Yep Thought So with a thermodynamic battle like that going on. The National Weather Service in Topeka Kansas Has Issued a Tornado Warning for Cloud and Clay counties in North Central Kansas. At 7:02 PM Dopler radar indacated a Thunderstorm Capable of Producing a Tornado 11 miles SW of Vining or 12 Miles South east of Concordia Moving East at 20mph::::::

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We have our fingers crossed here. Our garden is so ready for a soaking rain. We've been watering but I just don't think it's the same as a nice rain.

I agree, you do have a difficult job. I don't think I would want to try to predict the weather, especially here..lol

We are on vacation the first week of July and will be doing a bunch of stuff outside around the house. I hate to put you on the spot but any thoughts about the weather down the road?? I realize it's a couple of weeks away and this month has been so dry and warm, I was wondering what you thought about July. Thanks Jamie!

DONNA:
That is quite far away... but right now, the long range data looks quiet. Of course, that could change... you should check back when we get closer!
Jamie

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Jamie and Gary- Hello! Tell Brett not to be a stranger.

Anyhow, what if a boundry line forms near us after the storms tonight (from NC Kansas), could we have the potential for severe (apparently tornadic) weather that they are getting tonight? I saw Clay County was getting hit pretty hard tonight and this seems to be super slow moving.

Thanks! Hank

HANK:
The tornadic thunderstorm in KS has weakened, and the tornado warnings have been allowed to expire. The chance of thunderstorms increases for KC as we go through the overnight into Thursday morning. Any thunderstorms that do track our way will have the potential for damaging winds and hail.
Jamie

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Golf Ball Sized Hail has been Repoted in Clay County Kansas. 6O to 65 MPH winds are also possible with this storm.

Steve Newport
De Soto Kansas

STEVE:
There was even a report of hail up to 3 inches in diameter... that's pretty dangerous! Thankfully, that storm has weakened.
Jamie

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Hi - Well, radar at 2245 shows it is doing it again, a magnificent splitting of activity with the hole aimed at...guess where....Blue Springs and vicinity have to be cursed...I'd just as soon be in the desert where nothing happens and you don't expect it to. Really, this is becoming ridiculous...I'll bet nothing happens here, or at least, not much at all...

dog

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Well, its 410am and nothing has happened here in Olathe. When I got to work around 930 I saw some lightning in the distance. AND THATS ALL ITS BEEN DOING SINCE THEN. For almost 7 hrs I have seen it storm out to the west and north, but Nothing here. Looks like the storm is doing the GOOD OL METRO SPLIT. Do you see it rainig at all today or is it going to be a bust. AGAIN!

MATT:
There is still a chance as the wave heads towards us.
Jamie

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It was amazing to watch the storms head this way, break apart, and redevelop north of the metro. A quick look at total precip shows the trend continues. It makes me think we are truly cursed and will have a very dry summer and the makings of a drought.

There is no way to predict this wacky weather, because there is no reason why we miss it all. Any other year with this pattern, and we would be talking about flooding.

My prediction for the hottest day... September 3rd at 4pm. We seem to get some good hot days in September.

Thanks guys, Joe

JOE:
You are completely right. There is no reason why some counties get 2" and others get almost nothing. I think our forecast was pretty accurate, but then there are 2 or 3 counties that didn't get much rain... and I am sure those people feel otherwise. ANYWAY... thanks for your vote, we put you in our database! Good luck!
Jamie

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This morning (6/22) the storms come at us and jsut died on our door steps again. How many inches behind normal before an official drought is called? My yard says we are way past it for sure!!

LEONARD:
We ARE in a moderate drought!
Jamie

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Hey all - Guess what I found in my rain gauge after last night? ZERO, ZILCH, NADA...
Why am I not surprised, and this morning I see the NWS forecasting heavy rain, yet reading between the lines, it is to remain north and south of us - how can they be so off on their forecasts? Never fear, the 80% kiss of death has been given to this day - the drought continues to exacerbte.

Dog

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Hi Weather Team:

Well, it looks like mother nature got us again. I just looked at radar, and all the heavy rain is to the north. I have noticed that any rain that tries to com this way falls apart. I am guessing it is because of the high pressure trying to settle in off to our east. Once again, the models did not pick up on this, and once again, no wide-spread rain. I truly think that this heavy rain event NWS is forecasting IS NOT going to happen. The storms never developed overnight, and I just don't see them developing yet today. NWS said in their short term that thunderstorms will try to develop in KC Metro in the next hour (it is 745am as I wrte this blog.)

Oh well, have a great day!

Brian - Overland Park

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I'm in North Kansas City and we're getting a pretty soaking rain with some lightning at 8:30 am.

KATIE:
Awesome! Thanks for the report!
Jamie

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I live in Greenwood and we woke up to zero rain. When I left for work at 7:00 a.m. we still had no rain. Do you think there is a small chance Greenwood will get some rain? We are keeping Jackson County Public Water Supply in business with all of our watering.

ANN:
There is still a chance for rain in Greenwood. Let us know if you get anything!
Jamie

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Last night at about 10:45 pm out here in Louisburg we had a down pour lasting about 20 min. and this morning I had just under a half inch of rain in my gauge.

JIM:
You are very lucky! Please let us know your amounts if you get any more rain.
Jamie

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I just went to let the dogs outside and they wouldn't go. Wanna know why? Cuz it is raining in Bonner Springs!!! I nice steady rain. No thunder, no lightening. But rain none the less.

KERI:
Great to hear! Thanks for the update!
Jamie

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Nice steady rain here at work off of 6th and Minnesota in Kansas City, KS

BRYAN:
Yeay!! :) Thanks for the report!
Jamie

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Gary

This was on CNN today - I have argued that this is causing climate changes that lately has left you scratching your head on the weather. On the radio last week you said Denver hit 100 degrees the earliest it ever has. I am telling you all the rain patterns and temp patterns have changed - throw your models out they wont predict as they should any more. Global warming factor must be included in models now. The first weather station to start to admit that global warming is causing wierd patterns will get great press
Study: Earth hottest in 400 years
Panel says humans responsible for much of the warming

Thursday, June 22, 2006; Posted: 11:10 a.m. EDT (15:10 GMT)

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CLIMATE REPORT FINDINGS:

-- The Earth is the hottest it has been in at least 400, maybe more.

-- The National Academy of Sciences studied tree rings, corals and other natural formations, in part, to conclude that the heat is unprecedented for potentially the last several millennia.

-- Human activities are responsible for much of the recent warming, the Academy says.

Source: AP SPECIAL REPORT

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Manage Alerts | What Is This? WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Earth is the hottest it has been in at least 400 years, probably even longer.

The National Academy of Sciences, reaching that conclusion in a broad review of scientific work requested by Congress, reported Thursday that the "recent warmth is unprecedented for at least the last 400 years and potentially the last several millennia."

A panel of top climate scientists told lawmakers that the Earth is running a fever and that "human activities are responsible for much of the recent warming." Their 155-page report said average global surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere rose about 1 degree during the 20th century.

The report was requested in November by the chairman of the House Science Committee, Rep. Sherwood Boehlert, R-New York, to address naysayers who question whether global warming is a major threat.

Last year, when the House Energy and Commerce Committee chairman, Rep. Joe Barton, R-Texas, launched an investigation of three climate scientists, Boehlert said Barton should try to learn from scientists, not intimidate them.

The Bush administration also has maintained that the threat is not severe enough to warrant new pollution controls that the White House says would have cost 5 million Americans their jobs.

Climate scientists Michael Mann, Raymond Bradley and Malcolm Hughes had concluded the Northern Hemisphere was the warmest it has been in 2,000 years. Their research was known as the "hockey-stick" graphic because it compared the sharp curve of the hockey blade to the recent uptick in temperatures and the stick's long shaft to centuries of previous climate stability.

The National Academy scientists concluded that the Mann-Bradley-Hughes research from the late 1990s was "likely" to be true, said John "Mike" Wallace, an atmospheric sciences professor at the University of Washington and a panel member. The conclusions from the '90s research "are very close to being right" and are supported by even more recent data, Wallace said.

The panel looked at how other scientists reconstructed the Earth's temperatures going back thousands of years, before there was data from modern scientific instruments.

For all but the most recent 150 years, the academy scientists relied on "proxy" evidence from tree rings, corals, glaciers and ice cores, cave deposits, ocean and lake sediments, boreholes and other sources. They also examined indirect records such as paintings of glaciers in the Alps.

Combining that information gave the panel "a high level of confidence that the last few decades of the 20th century were warmer than any comparable period in the last 400 years," the academy said.

Overall, the panel agreed that the warming in the last few decades of the 20th century was unprecedented over the last 1,000 years, though relatively warm conditions persisted around the year 1000, followed by a "Little Ice Age" from about 1500 to 1850.

The scientists said they had less confidence in the evidence of temperatures before 1600. But they considered it reliable enough to conclude there were sharp spikes in carbon dioxide and methane, the two major "greenhouse" gases blamed for trapping heat in the atmosphere, beginning in the 20th century, after remaining fairly level for 12,000 years.

Between 1 A.D. and 1850, volcanic eruptions and solar fluctuations were the main causes of changes in greenhouse gas levels. But those temperature changes "were much less pronounced than the warming due to greenhouse gas" levels by pollution since the mid-19th century, it said.

The National Academy of Sciences is a private organization chartered by Congress to advise the government of scientific matters.

DAVID:
We also aired it on NBC Nightly News... a very eye opening piece!
Jamie

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Its 12:20 and coming down in buckets here in Greenwood. When I can find my umbrella to go outside to check the rain gauge i'll follow up with a total!

TIM:
Thanks for the report! Glad to hear Greenwood got some rain!
Jamie

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Hey Gary/Jamie....as of 12:20pm we have just a hair over 2inches of rain in North Grain Valley.

Thanks
Chris

WOW, CHRIS!
Thanks for your update!!
Jamie

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Hey guys,
Is this the extent of the rain or are we expecting redevelopment later today? Believe me this is nice, just checking to see if there is more in the future and where you expect it to develop?

Thanks,
Todd

TODD:
The chances are going down. Anything else looks like it will be pretty spotty.
Jamie

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1.1 inches of rain here in Greenwood, all between 11:30 and 1pm. Now that is a downpour! I'm greedy and want more though...

Tim in GW

TIM:
Wow! You are one of the lucky ones! :)
Jamie

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Lawrence has been high and dry. About .10 earlier this morning and nothing since. It looks like all the development is to the south and east.

MIKE:
Unfortunately, YOU are in the dry hole this time. :(
Jamie

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Since 11:30 a.m. ,at my house here in the east part of Blue Springs, we've received exactly 2" of rain and it's still raining!

DAVID:
So glad to hear it! You definitely need it over there!
Thanks for letting us know,
Jamie

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I am so grateful for the rain I have received at my house, about a third of an inch (near gladstone). My flowers are breathing a sigh of relief and even the birds appear perkier. I hope we get more and perhaps that will break this awful cycle we have been in for so long.

thanks,
tim

TIM:
So glad to hear it! Thanks for your info!
Jamie

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As of 2:10PM , my rain gauge in Kingsville MO has about a half inch in it. It rained fairly steady for a while. Just wondering if there would be any more development later on this afternoon/evening.

KIM:
Thanks for the report! There is still the chance of additional rain. But anything else we see this afternoon/evening will be spotty... not like the more widespread rains we had earlier.
Jamie

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Hey Gary/Jamie,
I was wondering if we are going to get anymore rain I have two softball games tonight in Blue Springs the first starts at 6pm will we have anymore rain by then? We got arround two inches at 11, so the fields are already wet from that.

Rebecca

REBECCA:
We will likely be dry this evening. There is maybe a 30% chance of an isolated t-storm, but right now things look dry overall. Have fun doing laundry after the games in those wet/muddy fields! :)
Jamie