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Strange weather pattern
Below are three maps. The first is the surface map from this mornings GFS valid Sunday morning. The second is the 500 mb map valid at the same time showing the big upper high over western Canada. And the third is the 60 hour precipitation forecast from Sunday through Tuesday.
Click to enlarge
Click to enlarge
click to enlarge
A huge split is developing as we had anticipated a week or so ago. What will it mean at this time of year? It could mean anything from a few wind shifts and some temperature fluctuations to wild thunderstorms and huge temperature fluctuations. It has the potential to become very exciting and at the same time it could be extremely frustrating.
It all begins this weekend with a strong June cold front sagging in from the north. It will likely be in the 50s and 60s north of the front and near 100 south of the front. This front will likely move through us Saturday night and someone could get some significant thunderstorm activity. Then after it stalls near the Oklahoma Kansas border it could set someone up into a zone of thunderstorm activity for days. It is just too early to tell who will get the action.
We will know more as it gets closer. Stay tuned....
Posted by at June 8, 2006 11:48 AM
Good Afternoon, Gary
It seems things might be getting interesting both here in Kansas City and the midwest in general the next 7 days. 40 degrees differential on either side of the front and 4" rainfall values just north and east of KC. Gary, my question to you is this, do you see this as a possible full blown severe weather outbreak somewhere in the midwest? From the GFS MSLP..maybe central Missouri - Ohio or Nebraska - Iowa or further south, and could there be supercells here as well in Kansas? prehaps Mother Nature's curtain call for the season?? staying tuned for sure.
I don't see a full blown severe weather set up, but this pattern may yet produce one.
Posted by: SkyMan at June 8, 2006 12:26 PM
Do you see a chance of any significant severe weather anymore this month?
There certainly is a chance, but it is SHOCKING that May was so quiet.
Posted by: Bryan at June 8, 2006 12:49 PM
This will be a fun next 10 days. I like the high building in..that will make things a bit more interesting in that won't that get us out of the zonal flow? Also, if you look at your maps..look in the gulf. Invest90L now lives. Models are not in concensus at all yet on the path, a few more days will help. Fun at home, fun in the tropics...I couldn't be happier!
We must see hot it evolves and don't let ourselves panic.
Posted by: Scott at June 8, 2006 1:24 PM
Will this setup last through Father's day or back to pure summer by then?
The weather pattern is very, very strange Leonard. Let's see what we think tomorrow.
Posted by: Leonard at June 8, 2006 3:41 PM
It's going to miss us to the south. Thats the trend if the front will stall that far south.
We will have to see where the front is Saturday evening? I don't have a feel for it now.
Posted by: Kinley at June 8, 2006 3:48 PM
What do you think of the Severe weather potential in Nebraska/Iowa tomorrow? Do you think it will make it down here tomorrow night? Thanks
I haven't really analyzed it yet for up there. The complex would likely stay in Iowa, but we have to watch it Friday night.
Posted by: Adam at June 8, 2006 4:33 PM
Gary - sorry to be negative, but really, will it EVER rain significantly in Blue Springs again this season, or are we doomed to have "forlorn hopes" dashed again, and again, and AGAIN??? Frankly, for my house in Blue Springs, other places notwithstanding, for all the action we have seen since April 1st, I might as well live in L.A. At least I could grow palm trees!!!
Anyhow, please give me some hope, I really don't have the mental energy anymore, weatherwise, to dare hope for anything, not with this pattern.
A despairing Dog (please don't be too hard on me :)!!!
This pattern is horrible, and as I stated in my entry today will we be left frustrated again? Hopefully not.
Posted by: StormDog at June 8, 2006 4:50 PM
Wow, I saw your latest forecast. I wish you would work with the folks at the NWS. They still are not forecasting what you are. They still have us in the middle 80s through next week, and not as hot tomorrow. Still, your forecast seems to be on-track so far. Maybe they will get on board with you soon.
Almost every time we have a forecast for rain, it has been scattered at best. I am convinced more than ever that KC is cursed!
Do I think we will get these storms? Well, I am not going to hold my breath. I have given up hope for any kind of major outbreak for the rest of this season. It is not that I want severe weather, but we need the rain so bad!
Brian - Overland Park
I doubt their middle 80s forecast is correct. If the front stays near us it will be. But, if it drifts south then we are in the 70s. And, north we are in the 90s. I went for it making it through us, but even my confidence is low. Let's see where this very unusual front wanders.
Posted by: Brian at June 8, 2006 10:27 PM