« Weather pattern |
Main
| Some of our contestants »
The heat builds stronger
Later today we will look at a few of your entries in our contest for picking the hottest day of the summer. It will be warming up the next three days with the critical factor each day being the amount of cloud debris from leftover thunderstorms to our north. At this moment I don't expect too much cloud cover so it will approach 100 degrees each day. We decided to keep it at 99 for the highs, not just because we are "chicken", but because it really looks like it could stop somewhere in the upper 90s. Today will be the first test, so let's see what happens with today's high temperature. A heat wave is defined as three consecutive days where the temperatures are close to 100 degrees. The humidity is still low, which is amazing considering it is still quite green. The dewpoints appear they will stay in the 50s much of the weekend and this will limit any heat index to be near the actual temperature.
The "mini" heat wave will likely break by Monday or Tuesday with a weak cold front and some thunderstorms developing near by. Below is the 500 mb flow and surface flow valid Tuesday night and then the precipitation forecast for Monday through Wednesday.
Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid Tuesday evening)
Click to enlarge (surface valid Tuesday evening)
Click to enlarge (rainfall forecast Monday-Tuesday night)
This 06z run of the GFS was rather different than the past few runs as it got rather wet after this next 5 day stretch. I am not buying this solution yet as we know how much of a struggle it has been to produce widespread rainfall.
Have a great weekend, and once again later today I will be posting a few of the entries for the hottest day.
Gary
Posted by at June 30, 2006 6:33 AM
******************
I am convinced this southern ridge is messing the cycle up for everyone! Wouldn't this ridge with its strength pushing the jetstream up also cause what seems like the permanent low pressure over the great lakes? Causes too much rain for the E. Coast, and not enough for the rest of us. Enough of the setup sending all the tropical moisture up the coast! Go away ridge, lets flatten out the jetstream and let us go on with the summer that its suppose to be!
LOL
_________________________
Scott,
The western ridge is just part of the pattern and it is right where it is suppose to be.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at June 30, 2006 1:31 PM
****************
Got some work to do today to get to 99...
________________
Scott,
Yeah, we blew it. We shouldn't have gone so high. The upper ridge really isn't coming out so I should have known better. We missed by 4 degrees today.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at June 30, 2006 1:38 PM
****************
In looking at your 7 day forecast, it looks like you all have modified it a bit cooler. Changes in the models??
_____________
Scott,
The cold front looks a little bit stronger, but it will be July so let's see.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at June 30, 2006 3:23 PM
*****************
Gary: Remember the summer of 1980?
Dog (BORING, VERY, VERY BORING, BUT OF COURSE YOU KNOW THAT ALREADY - JUST VENTING.)
---------------
Storm Dog,
This isn't even close to the summer of 1980, or 1988. Let's see what happens. It is keeping me slightly entertained, yet I am a bit bored.
Gary
Posted by: StormDog at June 30, 2006 4:29 PM
|
