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Uh oh, changes!
Good afternoon,
What does this map mean? It is valid Saturday afternoon.

Click to enlarge (valid Saturday evening)
This is the 500 mb forecast from the latest GFS run. Guess what it means? It means there is NO upper low hanging back. NONE. And you can see this by looking at the upper trough that is just swinging through. So, this changes the entire extended forecast, if it is correct. The NAM and UKMET models have been keeping the waves progressive the entire time. What it means for us is one chance of rain Saturday and that is it, until the next system comes by Tuesday or so.
Let's see if this trend continues. The last 8 GFS runs had upper lows hanging back but not today.
More later on.....At least there is a chance of thunderstorms on Saturday, and this could still change again. Our horrible weather pattern continues.
Gary
Posted by at June 14, 2006 11:47 AM
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Gary,
I am curious. From those storms two weeks ago Jamie posted some pictures of the storms. I was wondering what makes those storms look like cones. I have seen pictures of supercells and they look like cones. How and why do they do that.
Thanks.
Jeff,
I don't think they look like cones, perhaps a little bit. Do you mean ice cream cones? When a cumulonimbus cloud is developing there is an updraft creating the cloud shapes into what you are talking about. It is beautiful.
Gary
Posted by: Jeff at June 14, 2006 2:24 PM
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Love the new Action Weather Plus. I have Everest and went out to 631 last night and it was there! I was suprised because i thought it wasn't gonna be there for a couple weeks. Thanks for keeping us informed. By the way, I'm getting ready to wash the car...it WILL rain.
JENNIFER:
That is great to hear Weather Plus is already on Everest! Keep us updated as to how everything is going, as this is new to us and we can use all the feedback we can get! And go wash the car... we need the rain! :)
Jamie
Posted by: Jennifer at June 14, 2006 3:37 PM
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Gary,
Now that you have presented your weather pattern theory, What is your take on the flooding in 1993 we had across the midwest in relation to your pattern? What happend that year with the pattern to cause such an extreme event? I believe you were in Kansas City at that time, and rather new to the area then, what a way to come to KC!!
Jon,
I haven't studied that year yet. But, I do remember the weather pattern well. We had a great and very exciting weather pattern during season 1992-1993. So, the flood of '93 occurred during that same pattern that set up in the fall of 1992. I still need to go back and look at all of the maps.
The flooding suddenly ended by the end of July and early August when the rain shut off. This is exactly when my theory says the weather pattern ends. So, it all fits.
Gary
Posted by: Jon at June 14, 2006 4:47 PM
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We need about 5 inches. Our pond is so low that we will not be able to utilize it for watering this summer. It usually fills up in the Spring. Not this year.
Dwight,
It is amazing because 5 to 6 inches of rain fell just north of us last weekend and just south of us last week. So, could we get it this weekend to even things out? I have a pond behind my house too. It is very difficult for it not to fill up during the winter months with no evaporation. Then, to go all spring without enough rain to fill it up is equally amazing. Let's see what happens during the next two weeks.
Gary
Posted by: Dwight at June 14, 2006 5:37 PM
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Gary,
Is it me or has it seemed to be an overall quite year for severe weather in and around the metro area? Aside from the system that caused the damage in lawrence and the KU campus, it has seemed to be pretty quiet. Is there some overall "reason" behind this? Or are we just in a cycle?
Thanks
Jeff,
Overall I think we all know that there has been a mean ridge near our region. So, when the jet stream weakened a bit as we moved into May this feature started dominating and preventing severe weather set ups. The ones that occurred in March and April really barely came together as the moisture just arrived in time. So, it was almost a complete dud of a season with that exception.
I think it could have been predicted. But, it is still a bit shocking that almost nothing happened in the two prime months.
Gary
Posted by: Jeff at June 14, 2006 6:56 PM
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Gary, we're heading to Omaha for the day on Saturday. What does the weather look like for our trip back and forth?
Also, what is the difference between "scattered" and "isolated" thunderstorms?
Thanks!
Matt,
We will be under the influence of this strange storm this weekend. So, there is a chance of a thunderstorm on the way up and on the way down.
Isolated thunderstorms will move fairly slowly and thus stay over a very "isolated" location. There could be 1 or maybe 3 or 4 in the area.
Scattered thunderstorms are more widespread and they are usually moving faster. A thunderstorm in Overland Park moving northeast at 15 mph can cover that 15 mile area before it falls apart, and then there are others as well. When we say scattered thunderstorms then there is usually a pretty good chance you will get hit by one.
Gary
Posted by: Matt at June 14, 2006 7:11 PM
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