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Weather pattern
Good morning. I had a great vacation just sleeping in and relaxing. But, now it is back to work. I have been analyzing all of the data from this weather pattern that began back in October and early November. We are still in the same pattern. My theory is: The weather pattern sets up between October 10th and November 10th EVERY year. It then starts cycling. The cycle and the weather pattern are unique, in other words each year is different than any other weather pattern that has ever existed. The cycle is not defined until we have gone through one. As soon as the first cycle is completed the pattern then repeats and doesn't end until late July or early August. Then the pattern goes through chaotic transition and then begins developing a new unique pattern as we move into October.
I presented my theory to meteorologists from around the nation last August in Washington D.C. There are many skeptics out there, but I am convinced that this happens. We have been tracking it since the early 1990s and it happens every year.
This year we are in a 58 to 62 day cycle, give or take a couple of days. This means that every 60 days or so the cycle completes and begins again. It is absolutely fascinating. Let's look at one example. Right now, below is the 500 mb chart from last night.
Click to enlarge (500mb flow valid 7 PM June 28th, 2006)
Notice the ridge aloft over the southwest United States and how it extends all the way up to northern Canada near the Arctic Cirle.
Now, look at the next two maps valid October 23rd and December 21st below.
click to enlarge (October 23, 2005)
Click to enlarge (December 21st, 2005)
These maps clearly show an almost identical upper level flow pattern with varying degrees of intensity. The flow is a lot stronger in December than October, and it is stronger in October than right now where we are into summertime. October 23rd is 248 days ago (divide that by 4 which is 62), the first cycle was becoming established. We identified the cycle by early to mid December as the pattern started repeating. December 21st is 58 days from October 23rd. At first we thought it was around 54 to 58 days, but as the pattern repeated it became obvious to us that it was around 60 days or so.
Now remember, this is just one day, but pick any day and you can go forward or backward around 58 to 62 days and you will be able to see how it all lines up. And another amazing thing about my theory is that each year has a different cycle. Last year it was around 74 to 78 days, the year before that it was around 54 days, and in 2002-2003 it was around 34 to 38 days. This is why I don't believe it is tied to any ocean oscillation. It is caused by something entirely different, perhaps a combination of things. And, this is just for the northern hemisphere which would include Europe, Asia, and North America. The southern hemisphere likely does something similar, but I haven't studied this.
This year we have been in this horrible pattern. It just hasn't brought us weather enthusiasts much excitment. Oh, it has had its moments with the massive tornado outbreak in March, the freak snowstorm in December, the warmest January ever, the driest February ever, but this pattern has been much more exciting for other parts of the nation. The flooding going on right now in the northeast is no surprise as this pattern has produced similar conditions a few times right on that 60 day cycle already.
So, it is good news that the pattern is about to fall apart. In about a month it will die. I have seen it happen. Start looking for the pattern to "look" much different as we move into August.
Now, back to our weather. A small heat wave is trying to build right now. It may hit 100 degrees before Monday, but a cold front is progged to make it in here by early next week with some rain chances and cooler weather.
Gary
Posted by at June 29, 2006 6:31 AM
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Thanks Gary for the additional info..kinda helps feed the weather habit for me! LOL.
I would like to understand more about why you don't think ocean oscillation is unrelated. Not that I doubt that, but curious to how the time cycles would make you believe its not related?
On a similar thought, I am curious to whether there could be a loose tie in the formation of the GRC and the relationship of thermal cycles that may contribute to setting up the jet stream.
Here is my thought process [indulge, please]
As we go through each summer [when GRC dies and reforms], this begins the hurricane season. This cycle brings large but varying amounts of heat energy toward the poles [each year varies obviously]. The transaction of that heat with the cold of the poles create the thermal gradient which directly affects the jet streams. Based on where that gradient forms based on the amount of heat transferred, would then affect where the jet streams form. [thus different cycles year to year] When the transfer of heat begins to decline, the jetstream behavior becomes more established. This seems like it would happen near the end of hurricane season [as hurricanes are a large heat engines transfering energy to the poles] Hurricane season winds down in late October into November. This also is when the GRC establishes itself.
To take it a step further, events affecting the creations of hurricane could indirectly affect the GRC as well. Example: Seasons with high amount of African dust will negatively affect the formation of Cape Verde hurricane formations, thus POTENTIALLY [except for last year] reducing the overall amounts of hurricane in a given year in the Atlantic, thus reducing the amount of heat transferred, thus affecting the jetstream, thus affecting the GRC. [Won't bring up El Nino/La Nina - though the same logic applies].
I am pretty sure there is much more to my claim both proving and disproving, so I am not truly qualified to absolutely say that my theory is correct, but it is intriguing all the same, as I believe the GRC is governed by more of a global effect, and the thermal cycle seems plausable as it establishes jetstreams which seem to directly affect the GRC. Just my thoughts.
Gary, thanks for sharing your concepts with us...as seen in this response..its very thought provoking!
Scott,
These are great ideas. I now have to study your analysis. I haven't discovered why, but I have discovered that it does happen. It is so obvious to me.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at June 29, 2006 9:07 AM
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Gary,
I belive you are right. Since you had made this public i also watched these weather patterns. From what i can tell you are mostly right. So in looking at this current pattern. When is the cycle to help produce a little more rain going to start? Man it is really dry out here. Like the old saying it's feast or famin. Well the east coast is feasting and we are famin. Can you believe Washington DC has had more rain in 4 days than we have had all year. Oh well maybe our time will be next to feast.
Have a great day,
-Rodney
Rodney,
This pattern is just not capable of bringing us a lot of rain.
Gary
Posted by: Rodney Spurgeon at June 29, 2006 10:25 AM
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Now that is why you are my favorite meteorolgist. Hands down! Your insight and attitude is refreshing!!
Keep up the good work Gary!!
Hans,
Thank you for the kind comments. I hope you are having a great day.
Gary
Posted by: Hans Richardson at June 29, 2006 1:46 PM
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Gary, have other meteorologists noticed the patterns in your theory before? If not, what do you attribute this to? Your descriptions make it seem very obvious once you know what to look for so I'm surprised that it's being met with skepticism by others in the weather field.
Marlina,
It amazes us every year. I can't explain it, even some of my respected peers either don't want to accept that I have made a discovery, or they just can't imagine that this could happen.
Gary
Posted by: Marlina at June 29, 2006 2:25 PM
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I don't see how anyone can't see this weather pattern cycle, but I'm sure they will come around some day!
By the way, do you think St. Joe will get as hot as KC this weekend or will we stay a bit cooler because of that weak front? Thanks, Nick
Nick,
It really is easy to see. But, there is more to it as well.
St. Joseph could be hotter as the front will likely still be north of you through Sunday.
Gary
Posted by: Nick Rau at June 29, 2006 2:45 PM
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Got an error on my last post..not sure if it went through...
July 4th-5th looks like a hoot!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_slp_l_loop.shtml
Scott,
Don't get too excited yet.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at June 29, 2006 3:11 PM
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Howdy Gary -
Hope you had a good vacation.
I am involved in research and know that the biggest predictor of acceptability of a theory is that it can be reproduced. Other scientists questioning/doubting... well, that is just part of the scientific peer revue. Anyhow, my question is, if I remember correctly you have been studying your weather pattern theory for at least 10 years... you understand when it starts... have you noticed what causes it to be a 38/54/## cycle? Is it somehow dependent on the cycle before? Is it a completely random set of events that settles into a cycle? Is this something you are researching now that you are confident in your theory?
Sorry. Lots of questions. You are probably used to that at your conferences.
Bye!
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Hank,
These are great questions. I am doing research on all of these ideas you presented right now. So, maybe something will click by this next season's pattern.
Gary
Posted by: hank at June 29, 2006 10:35 PM
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