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Dog Days

Good morning everyone,

How are you dealing with this latest heat wave? It was 102 degrees yesterday and it should go higher today. Then Wednesday, as the cold front approaches, could be the hottest day of the year if there is limited cloud cover. The hottest temperatures are often just ahead of the cold front which should be just northwest of us Wednesday evening. There should be a lot of thunderstorm activity near the frontal zone on Wednesday night into Thursday as you can see the GFS forecast rainfall on the second map below.

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow, valid Monday night)

The above map shows the 500 mb flow for tonight. We are in a tropical but very capped south to southwest flow aloft. This flow usually would be quite moist but it is so warm aloft that there is just no cloud cover being generated. This could change by Wednesday as the front approaches.

Click on map to enlargeGFS forecast rainfall (Wednesday through Thursday Forecast)

The above map shows the rainfall forecast for mid to late week. That is a lot of rain, but will we be left frustrated again? Hopefully not. We will analyze all of the new data today and later on this evening I will let you know what the trends are.

After this goes by the models are trending towards the heat building back in over the weekend. My forecast day for the hottest of the year was August 6th. I don't really want to win, but it does look like we could be back up to over 100 by then.

GREAT EVENT FOR YOU AND YOUR DOG
Do you have a dog? There is a great event coming up at Arrowhead stadium. "Dog's night out" with the Kansas City Wizards a week from Saturday night (August 12th). For just $20 you and your dog get a club level pet/owner ticket with additional tickets just $10 per person. Breezy, Stormy and I will be there. So, get your tickets and come on out. There will be a "Doggie Street" before the game with fun activities for your dog and vendor booths. Below are a couple of pictures that were taken for the "Paw Prints" magazine photo shoot. This magazine is available at many locations throughout the Kansas City metro area. Pick up a copy when you get the chance. You can see Windy as well. We hope to see you on August 12th! All proceeds go to the Kansas City Pet Project!

Click to enlarge cover of Paw Prints magazine

Windy, Stormy, Breezy on a Paw Prints photo shoot

Stormy looking into the camera

Try to stay cool. Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 7:06 AM | Comments (11)

Heat Continues...

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 102
LOW: 78

Well, another day... another 100-degree afternoon! Here are some other highs from around the area:

DOWNTOWN: 102
PLAZA: 101
LEES SUMMIT: 100
OLATHE: 99
OVERLAND PARK: 101
ST. JOSEPH: 101
TOPEKA: 101
SEDALIA: 102
CHILLICOTHE: 101
PLEASANT HILL: 100

Our heat index values range from the air temperature up to about 108 degrees. Remember during the last heat wave a couple of weeks ago... how our heat index values were WAY up there... like 115? That is because there was more moisture to work with. The heat index is a combination of air temperature and relative humidity. During the last heat wave, our dew points were in the mid-upper 70s... and this time around, they have been in the mid-upper 60s. The winds have been stronger this time around... and that has helped to mix some drier air aloft down to the surface. It has helped us somewhat... but it's still HOT! And our EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING remains in effect through Tuesday night.

And it may have to be extended into Wedensday, believe it or not! I hate to say it... but our cold front looks slower on today's runs. Wednesday could be another 100 degree plus day... depending on cloud cover.

So the hottest day of the summer could be this week! Here are some contestants that are still in the running:
Jennifer Dunlay: July 31 4:38pm
Chris: August 1st, 4:39pm
Mary: August 2nd at 4:40pm
John Hurt: Aug 2, 2006, 5:12 PM

Good luck this week! :) With the slow-moving cold front, comes the chance of thunderstorms Wednesday night:

Click to enlarge

Behind that front, our highs should be in the 80s for Thurs/Fri/Sat. But then Sunday looks hot again, with highs in the 90s!

I hope you had a lovely weekend!
Jamie

Posted by at 4:25 PM | Comments (4)

Hot Hot Heat

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 100
LOW: 77

Well we made it to 100 today... and we were only FIVE degrees shy of our record high for this date (105 set back in 1947). An EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING has been issued from now through Tuesday night. We should be into the 100s for these next few days... and our heat index values will range from 105 to 110 across the area. There won't be much relief at night, either... with lows right around 80 degrees. Here is the map, valid through Tuesday 10pm:

The upper level ridge will be right over us on Sunday... and then it should shift to our east for Monday and Tuesday. We are still expecting hot temperatures... but we will be in southwest flow aloft, so we will have to watch for any cloud cover that develops during the afternoon hours. That would play a role in keeping temps down a few degrees. Here is the 500mb flow for Monday... note the SW flow:

Click to enlarge

Regardless, our dew points are high so it will be very hot and humid. We should stay dry, though, as there is a pretty good cap in place. As we go into the middle part of the week, a front will approach us, and the models are advertising a few upper waves to ride our way. So the chance of thunderstorms starts Wednesday and sticks around through Friday. This will also mean an end to the heat wave, with highs dropping into the 80s.

But until then... be careful... and watch out for others.
Jamie

Posted by at 4:25 PM | Comments (4)

Here Comes the Heat

Good morning!

I do not have much to add to Gary's blog from last night... as nothing has changed. Today we should be in the upper 90s, close to 100 for a high. Heat index values will be in the range of 105 degrees, though... so be careful in the heat!

And we are only going UP from here. Expect highs in the lower 100s Sunday through Tuesday. Overnight lows won't bring much relief, either... dropping only into the 80s. I would think the NWS will put us in a heat watch/warning before long...

It figures... my in-laws are coming to visit us Monday & Tuesday... just in time for the heat wave! ;) If anyone has any COOL ideas of things we can do with them around town... feel free to share!

Jamie

Posted by at 7:04 AM | Comments (4)

Heat and changing pattern

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow Sunday, July 30th)

The map above clearly shows that the United States weather pattern is being dominated by a big anticyclone. This upper high developed over the northern plains two weeks ago shifted to the west and now is moving back out into the plains. It should then weaken moving to the southeast U.S. and then reform in the desert southwest eventually. Hot air feeds these "opposite of storm" sytems and sometimes the anticyclone holds into September before shifting well south into Mexico as fall approaches. So, even though the weather pattern has changed we still may have to deal with this system for a while. Also notice all of the wild flow through Canada. Everything is rapidly in transition and changing.

Click to enlarge (850 temps Monday)

This map (above) shows the 850 mb temperatures. The 850 mb level is about 5,000 feet up, so in Denver it would be the surface. This is why you often see the heat building at this level over the Rockies and high plains. This level being the surface out there obviously warms up fast. This heat can then be moved downslope into the plains and this year the northern plains has been the targeted area for the biggest heat. On this map notice the hottest air, by Monday, spreading north of Kansas City through the Great Lakes. This hottest air could be forced south over us as the cold front approaches and this could mean the hottest day would be Tuesday or Wednesday if the cold front slows down. We will be hearing about the heat wave big time next week. It should rapidly fall apart just as it becomes a major story as the pattern continues to majorly change. See below.

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow one week from now valid Thursday night)

This map shows the 500 mb flow forecast for next Thursday night. This is a completely new weather pattern in chaotic transition, so it probably won't quite look like this next Thursday. A cold front will drag into our area on Wednesday and then we have the potential for some heavy thunderstorms and a break in the heat wave. We now have to be patient to see how it sets up. Since it is a differnt pattern, as our old pattern just fell apart, something very different should happen with the precipation distribution. So, there is hope for less frustration than we have been used to.

Gary

Posted by at 10:32 AM | Comments (6)

The pattern has changed and it is raining

Good afternoon everyone,

Well, we have talked about this strange upper low near our region for days. The computer models have not known what to do with it and now it is over Kansas. So, what does this upper level storm mean for us? Cloudy, cooler, and some rain. Today will only be in the 80s and there is the potential for rain today and thunderstorms tonight before the storm moves away and falls apart Friday.

The heat should then build in, but the weather pattern is changing. I think the change has already occurred. We can celebrate. The old pattern is likely gone forever. I will show some evidence of this change soon, but just look at the model forecasts for the next few days. Very different things are beginning to happen.

More on this later. Enjoy the cloudy day. I am not surprised at all, I just wish we would have gone for it last night. We talked about it, but then we were influenced by the dry models. We knew we were in an upper level cyclonic circulation today and in July this has to mean clouds and precipitation.

Gary

Posted by at 11:55 AM | Comments (6)

More Cloud Pictures

Good morning!

Many of you sent in beautiful shots of a thunderstorm in the distance yesterday evening. I just wanted to post a few more of them... because they are GREAT!!

From Doug Evans of the Northland. He captured these ominous clouds looking ESE from 152 & Green Hills Road about 8:00 pm.

Brandon Carnal of Blue Springs sent us this one... he took it around 8:40pm.

This cool shot is from Tedi Rowland in Independence.

Renee Windsor took this impressive shot near Liberty around 8:15 pm.

Julie captured this picture just after 8:30 pm... looking to the East.

This one is from Dick and Jan Berry of Shawnee, KS. A beautiful shot of the thunderstorm anvil!

And Susan Y. from Blue Springs sent us this shot!

Cool Cumulonimbus clouds all around... we thank you all for your pictures! This morning in the Metro... we are starting off with clouds around. This is thanks to some on-going showers Southwest of KC. Here is the morning look at ESP:

Click ESP above to see the most CURRENT image

It looks like the chance of rain will continue to be south of KC this morning. But It is not out of the question to get a shower here in town, either... so it is something to watch! Cloud cover should hold highs down a bit this afternoon... I'm thinking lower 90s. Enjoy it, because it only gets hotter this weekend!

Jamie

Posted by at 6:05 AM | Comments (4)

Tonights Cumulunimbus....WOW!

Good evening everyone. We have received many pictures tonight of the huge cumulonimbus cloud that formed just before sunset right over I-70 near Oak Grove. It was as beautiful as any I have ever seen and we are showing it on the newscast tonight at 10 PM. Don't miss it. There are all kinds of things going on with the weather pattern including the potential for thunderstorms in the morning. It will likely be like this morning with scattered thunderstorms and showers. A strange upper low will be near us during the day.

Here is the picture taken by Corey Whitworth this evening around 8:15 PM from near the Clay Co. Courthouse. Awesome!

Click to enlarge......Cumulonimbus cloud just east of KC at 8:15 PM

More tomorrow.

Gary

Posted by at 9:37 PM | Comments (4)

Global Warming and our entries

Brett: August 11, 4:13 PM
Jeff: August 22, 3:58 PM
Gary: August 6, 4:01 PM
Jamie: August 21, 4 PM

Above is a reminder of our choices for the hottest day. It may come in the next week. There are changes going on, including perhaps the big change.....an end to the pattern we have been in, but more on this possibility tomorrow.

Good evening, I will be posting your comments on Global Warming. Hopefully you enjoyed the segment we did tonight. It wasn't easy to do as it just is amazing how pasionate people are about this subject. It is so political and it should be more scientific and politics should be secondary. As you saw in the piece I lean heavily towards the earth is now warming up and this is different than other warming events that have occurred in the past. But, I am also very skeptical on what the future holds. Why not clean up the earth, anyway, is what I have to say. It certainly can't hurt.

Thunderstorms are possible in the morning. The GFS blasts us, but we have a cap to overcome. I like the way the clouds look outside at midnight and I won't be surprised at all if a complex of thunderstorms forms.

Gary

Posted by at 12:04 AM | Comments (20)

Hottest day contest and weird weather

Good evening,

The 18z data, this afternoon's new data, that came out shows more of an upper low forming near us by Thursday and then drifting southeast and weakening. Thunderstorms would be more wide spread under this scenario and my confidence is still a bit low. We are upping our chance of thundertorms to 40% and may go higher at 10 PM.

Now, to our hottest day contest. The hottest day so far this summer has been 2:37 PM on July 19th when we hit 104 degrees. We may make a run at it early next week.

Here are some of the entries:

Dwight: July 27, 3:39 PM
Gary Springer: July 27, 4:44 PM
Jamie Cox: July 29, 3:11 PM
Jeannie Swartz: July 29, 3:45 PM
Debbie: July 29, 4:12 PM
Chris Kelly: July 29, 4:22 PM
Stephanie Rau: July 29, 4:32 PM
Matt Purtill: July 30, 4:24 PM
Scott: July 30, 4:55 PM
Jennifer Dunlay: July 31, 4:38 PM

Good luck!

Gary

Posted by at 5:58 PM | Comments (3)

Another heat wave?

Click to enlarge (500 mb Forecast for Thursday)

Click to enlarge (500 mb Forecast for Sunday)

Good morning everyone. I am concerned that a stronger heat wave could be building and moving in this weekend. Remember, this is the hottest time of the year climatologically, which means our average highs peak out during the next two weeks and then start going down. The anticyclone that created our heat wave a week ago shifted to the west and now is poised to shift back to the east into our region by Sunday. This is displayed above in the second map showing the upper high bodily coming over Kansas. When these anticyclones start creating tremendous heat we must watch even more closely. It will depend on many factors, but if that thing comes right over us it should be hotter than the last heat wave and given the time of year it will be tough to break.

At the same time that these developments are occuring the entire weather pattern may be changing. I keep waiting for this to happen, and we don't think it has happened yet but it should very soon. Please, change and fast! As the pattern changes the anticyclone could shift to the east, or even back to the west or sag southward. I just hope it doesn't decide to sit here for a while. It has already had a life of its own producing 120 degrees in South Dakota, 119 in Los Angeles county in my home town of Woodland Hills in the west valley, and now it produced the warmest morning low in Tuscon recorded history with their low of 89 degrees yesterday. And, Eugene Oregon just set their all time warmest low temperature ever with 74 degrees. So, this is wide spread. It isn't just a heat wave, but it is setting ALL TIME record highs in many places. Global Warming? Well, we will talk about it tonight on NBC ACTION NEWS at 10 PM.

Wednesday, a disturbance will be slowly moving through. There should be a lot of clouds and some thunderstorms around. It is rather warm aloft so we must overcome this to create an organized area of thunderstorms. This may very well happen and with so much warm air someone could get excessive rainfall. Right now I lean towards this happening in northern Missouri, but let's see how it sets up later today.

Gary

Posted by at 7:08 AM | Comments (13)

Extreme western heat & northwest flow in the plains

Good morning,

Wow, the weekend was nice. We had a 3 day break from the heat wave. It is now going to heat back up with a mid week twist. Our heat wave has shifted to the west where it is ridiculous. I grew up in the western San Fernando Valley, yes I am a valley boy. I left when I was 18 years old to go to the University of Oklahoma to work on my meteorology degree which I received in 1985. But, in those first 18 years of my life I didn't know any better and I thought the weather was exciting in Los Angeles. We would go 7 months without rain and then there would be a cloud over the mountains and I would go nuts. Then it would rain off and on for a few months, mostly off, and then dry again. I even went through two years in a row that only had 5 inches of rain each year. I bring this up because my home town of Woodland Hills has been over 100 degrees 16 days in a row. And, yesterday they hit 119 degrees. So this is an impressive heatwave that started in the Dakotas with 120 degrees in South Dakota. Is this Global Warming? Well, we will be talking about it on our special Global Warming segment Tuesday night at 10 PM.

This week we are in northwest flow aloft over the western ridge. This almost has to bring thunderstorms close by around Wednesday or Thursday. But, dewpoints are back into the lower 60s and 50s again. It should moisten up by mid week. Below is the 500 mb flow forecast for Thursday morning. You can see us in the northwest flow with all kinds of disturbances. The models are having a hard time predicting anything organized, but an MCS is possible later in the week. I hope so.

Click to enlarge (shows the 500 mb flow forecast for Thursday morning)

Have a fantastic day. Later on this evening we will look at all of the hot weather forecasts and see where we stand.

Gary

Posted by at 10:12 AM | Comments (13)

Afternoon Update

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 88
LOW: 62

It has been another nice day across the area... as temperatures have slowly started to warm. Today, we were in the upper 80s across the area... and we can expect lower 90s Monday... with mid 90s here by Tuesday.

The REAL heat is to our west... with the upper level ridge firmly in place there:

Click to enlarge

Helena, Montana has been at 100 degrees two days in a row! I only pick Helena... because I used to live there. :) It is such a beautiful city!! And off the weather topic for just a second... in elementary school, we learned it was pronounced "hel-AY-nuh"... when in fact it is REALLY pronounced "HEL-in-uh". There are many places with the same story... in school we learned it was Pierre, SD... (French pronunciation)... when actually it is pronounced "Pier". I learned that one living here in KC!

Can you tell there is not much to talk about weather-wise for us? ;)

OK... remember when that upper level ridge was over us... during the heat wave? One of our bloggers asked why it wasn't raining... because even though there was an upper level ridge... it was VERY humid.

Well, it wasn't raining here, because we had sinking air pretty much in every level of the atmosphere... and there was a rather strong cap in place. But check out what's happening underneath the ridge out West:

Click to enlarge

Yes, scattered showers and thunderstorms! How is this possible? Well, for one... they do have the moisture. Monsoonal moisture is coming in around the backside of the high. Also... the mountains provide a lifting mechanism (we call that orographic lifting).

Anyway... that's all... hope you have a great week ahead!
Jamie

Posted by at 4:36 PM | Comments (2)

Sunday

Good morning, bloggers!

We are in for another nice day across the area! We're starting off with some high clouds today, but we should see plenty of sunshine through the afternoon. Highs will be in the mid-to-upper 80s across the area... a few degrees warmer than we were yesterday.

Nothing has changed in the forecast as of this morning... still expecting the 90s to return this week, with a chance of thunderstorms around Wednesday. I feel so boring... there is not much more to say...

Even though we have caught up somewhat on our monthly rainfall... We are still WAY below average on rainfall for the year (8+ inches). Here is a cool drought map of Missouri, breaking it down county-by-county:

Missouri Drought Update
Missouri DNR

Notice the Metro is in PHASE 3... which is the "Conservation Phase". Keep in mind, though, that we did have several rain events since this was issued... so that has helped somewhat. But, still, it is always important to use water wisely!!!!!

Jamie

Posted by at 7:23 AM | Comments (2)

Great Saturday!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 84
LOW: 64

What a beautiful afternoon it was! Highs nice and comfortable in the low to mid 80s and really no humidity at all. We will see a repeat performance for Sunday... but temperatures will be just a few degrees warmer across the area.

Then our winds will turn southerly and increase as we head into Monday & Tuesday... and that means the 90s will be back this week!

Click to enlarge

That frontal boundary will hang out just north/northwest of us throughout the week. It never really comes THROUGH... so it will stay on the hotter side here in KC. Rain chances for the middle part of the week still look to be about 30%... but the timing is really up in the air. We will continue to tweak the forecast as we go through the next few days.

That is all I have! It's pretty quiet...
Jamie

Posted by at 8:56 PM | Comments (2)

Great Weekend!

Wow... it sure feels good out there with the break of the heat wave! We went from feeling like 115 degrees in parts of the area on Thursday... to feeling like 83 degrees on Friday. That is a 35-degree drop in what it FELT like outside... nice!!

High pressure is building in at the surface today. That will keep things quiet, and temperatures in check:

Click to enlarge

The heat will slowly build back into the area... we could see mid-90s by the middle of the week.

The real heat (100s) should stay to our south and west... with the upper level ridge:

Click to enlarge

Upper level waves will ride the northwest flow towards Kansas City around that ridge. But it's not until mid-week that one strong enough... with enough moisture... will bring us the chance of rain again:

Click to enlarge

Right now, the best chance looks to be on Wednesday! We'll keep you posted.

In the Tropics... we do have a very impressive hurricane! Hurricane Daniel is in the Eastern Pacific... and has maintained Category 4 strength for nearly two days! Wow... check it out on the satellite image below:

Click to loop

The good news... it does NOT threaten any land!
Have a good one, and enjoy the GREAT Weekend!
Jamie

Posted by at 6:54 AM | Comments (1)

Pattern Change?

Good evening everyone,

The wind shift line, or very weak cold front, has moved south of Kansas City this evening. Temperatures were near 100 on the north side of Kansas City and 103 down south. This front will stall tonight south of us and then get reinforced later tonight. We seem to be near the zone where thunderstorms should form. Right now we are capped, but the cap falls apart by early Friday and there is an upper level storm that will enhance the area of rain. If you get into significant rain Friday then temperatures will very likely be in the 60s. If it doesn't rain it could still be in the lower to middle 80s Friday. So, this is not an easy forecast, but if you have been reading the blog or watching us on NBC ACTION NEWS, then you know that we have been very consistent.

Below is the 500 mb flow at 1 PM Friday showing the disturbance over northeastern Kansas. And, the preciptiation forecast for the morning. It should rain, and possibly a lot, but it is a bit on the strange side. My feeling is that we will have thunderstorms and an area of rain close by around sunrise Friday, then with the disturbance coming near by rain could continue to be generated during the day.

Click to enlarge (500 flow showing disturbance well)

Click to enlarge (Surface valid at 1 PM)

Now, to the pattern change. We are gaining confidence that the entire weather pattern may be dying right now. The last few model runs have been all over the place on solutions. The European model has been having strange runs. The GFS has been trending into a brand new weather pattern. I am not completely convinced yet, but we may be celebrating by next week as this pattern has just been the most frustrating one I have experienced. Suddenly the latest GFS run has chances for rain and a slower return of heat later next week, but it could be wrong. As, I said, it has been trending and changing so let's see how we feel next week.

Have a great evening, and think positively for rain.

Gary

Posted by at 5:44 PM | Comments (10)

Much cooler & rain!

Good evening everyone,

We are getting ready for the newscast with the new data rolling in. It appears our chance of rain is going way up and the cold front is rather strong considering the heat wave we are in. Today hit 104 degrees at KCI. It was hotter than this in August 2003. But, now it is about to break with temperatures Friday possibly dropping into the 60s, that's right the 60s. Most likely it will drop into the 70s, but if it rains 60s are likely Friday afternoon. Ahhhhhhhh!

Gary

Posted by at 9:47 PM | Comments (9)

Extreme heat & then a big break

Good morning everyone. Windy got shaved yesterday and is still doing well at 16 years 8 months old. She seems to feel much better with her current hairdo!
16 year old Windy on July 18, 2006....just got shaved again

It will be very hot today and the dewpoints are still in the 70s which will create heat index values near 115 this afternoon. Below is the 850 mb map forecast for 1 AM tonight. You can see the 30 degree isotherm (86 degrees Fahrenheit) north of us and heading our way. It will gradually cool as it moves across on Thursday, but tomorrow could still be the hottest day of the year so far. 104 to 107 degrees is possible the next two days. Let's see what happens.

click to enlarge (Temperatures and flow at 850 mb, 5000 feet up 1 AM Thursday)

The wind shift line will move through late Thursday afternoon and evening and then the colder air will arrive Friday. But, will we see any rain. We have a big cap to break and I don't like the trends in the upper levels. So, let's wait and see what the new data shows tomorrow. We will go into north flow aloft Friday night and Saturday with MUCH drier air moving in with lower dewpoints. This will allow temperatures to be in the 80s this weekend. Below you can see the colder air moving in with the north winds Friday evening. It will feel good.

Click to enlarge (Surface map valid Friday evening.....ahhhhhh cooler)

Have a great day.

Gary

Posted by at 10:15 AM | Comments (11)

Strong heat wave will break

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow 6 PM Tuesday night)

Above, you can see the anticyclone. This is the opposite of a storm or cyclone, and the major reason why we are in this heat wave right now. The air generally sinks under this high aloft. It isn't really high pressure aloft, but high heights aloft. It is now forecast to rapidly escape to the west and be near the Pacific northwest coast by Saturday. This will allow north to northwest flow aloft to develop bringing a cold front through which you can sort of see below on Friday morning. The GFS thinks the front is already south of Kansas City by Friday morning, but this could set us up for some nice thunderstorms. This is rather strange and let's wait to see how it looks on Wednesday. But one thing for sure.........the heat wave will break and we will cool into the 80s this weekend.

Click to enlarge (Surface on Friday morning, 66 hour forecast)

Have a great evening and remember to drink a lot of water the next two days. Good luck to those of you who picked this week as the hot one. I think there will be at least one more hot stretch coming up soon, although this is enough for me.

Gary

Posted by at 8:25 PM | Comments (3)

Excessive Heat Warning!

Donna Mason July 17th at 2:47pm

Donna, not bad! Today at 2:37 PM it hit 100 degrees for the first time since August 26, 2003 at KCI. So, you are in as the hottest day of the year so far, unfortunately there is a lot of summer left and I think Thursday may be the day to beat.

We are in an Excessive Heat Warning probably through Thursday. The weak cold front may stall right near us Tuesday and then it really heats up Wednesday and Thursday.

New data is trending towards a VERY WET Friday and Saturday and much cooler.

Click to enlarge ( Friday through Sunday rainfall forecast)

Above is this mornings GFS rainfall forecast for Friday through Sunday. As usual don't get too excited yet. If this trend continues then we can get very excited tomorrow.

Gary

Posted by at 4:33 PM | Comments (9)

1057 day streak should end today

Good morning! The last 100 degree temperature recorded at KCI airport was way back on August 26th, 2003. This is 1057 days ago and this streak will end today, I believe. I am expecting it to get up to 102 this afternoon. There is a weak cold front approaching that will help direct our winds to the southwest just ahead of the front and it will force the 850 mb winds to become westerly this afternoon and bring some warmer air in just above us around 5,000 feet up. The cap is so strong that there should be limited cloud cover, with perhaps a few cumulus clouds near the wind shift line.

When will this break? A second cold front is due in Thursday night or Friday. It will be battling the warm air mass as it approaches. But it should cool us off 5 to 10 degrees, but for how long? The weather pattern is still the same one that set up last fall. We are seeing signs of its demise, but it is still there right now. The colder part of this pattern is due in here within a week or so, but will we be in a new pattern by then? I expect our old pattern to die within two weeks or so.

Gary

Posted by at 6:06 AM | Comments (8)

Hot Enough For You?

I actually hate that statement above... as if someone would say "No... I'd like it a little hotter, please!"... right?! ;)

Anyway... the entire viewing area is under a HEAT ADVISORY for the rest of today and for Monday, too!

Heat index values this afternoon are running between 103 and 108 degrees... with some isolated spots even higher. As of this blogging... the heat index in Lawrence is 115 ... and in St. Joseph it is 111 .

We keep talking about the "heat index"... and just in case you didn't know... the heat index is the combination of heat and humidity. Sometimes you might hear it called the "real feel" temperature... because it is what it really feels like ouside. Here is the NWS heat index chart... find the current temp, and the current relative humidity... and you can determine the current heat index:

Click to enlarge

Our dew points have been into the 70s this afternoon... and anytime they get above 65 or so... it REALLY feels humid outside! Bleh!

Here is a great question from one of our regular bloggers, Brian:

Hi Jamie:
I have a question. The Dew Point is VERY HIGH... With the Dew Point at 74, why is there no rain in the forecast? Lastly, it has been a record year for warm tempeatures for 2006. Does this have anything to do with Gary's weather pattern theory?

The reason we don't have showers or thunderstorms today is because there is basically High pressure at every level of the atmosphere! Let's examine it. First, the 500mb level... we have been talking about this one for awhile:

Click to enlarge

And on down to the 700mb level... still... a ridge in place:

Click to enlarge

Also found on the 700mb map is rising/sinking motion. You can see there is quite a bit of sinking over us:

You know the three ingredients we need for thunderstorms:
1) Moisture
2) Instability
3) LIFT!!

And we are obviously lacking in #3 today! Anyway... we go on to the 850mb level... still a ridge:

Click to enlarge

And even at the surface... we are under the influence of high pressure:

Click to enlarge

There aren't any areas of convergence around us... so things have been quiet! Now... late Monday... there will be a convergence zone dropping into Northern Missouri. A cold front will move in, and it will bring a chance of a few thunderstorms to the Northeast of us. We should stay dry here... and the heat will continue. We are still thinking 100s will be possible Monday through Thursday!

And to answer the last part of Brian's question... Gary's Weather Pattern Theory definitely helps to ILLUSTRATE what is going on. The whole CONCEPT of his theory is that the cycle will REPEAT itself! So if you have an extremely warm month, it will happen again and again! It makes total sense to us that this is a record warm year!!

I hope that helps to answer your questions! Gary will have more this week!

Now for a few of your entries to our HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR CONTEST!! Here are some upcoming guesses for this week:

Donna Mason July 17th at 2:47pm
Carrie Heinen.... July 18th, 1:57 pm
Ryan Young.... July 18 at 3:09pm
Kenzie Prince.... July 18, 2006 2:54 p.m.
Todd Maddox.... July 20th at 4:04pm
Missy Moran.... July 20th 2:32pm

You're all still in the running!!!!!!! :) TODAY was the hottest day for KCI so far. We hit 99 degrees... and just look at all that triple-digit heat to our West:

Yesterday, Pierre, SD hit 117!!! Today was another hot one at 110! Anyway, good luck to all that remain in the contest!
Jamie

Posted by at 3:36 PM | Comments (12)

HEAT ADVISORY

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 95
LOW: 73

Well, the NWS has issued a HEAT ADVISORY for portions of the viewing area for Sunday and Monday. It is mainly for our Kansas Counties... and for our counties on the Missouri side... that are right down the State Line:

Temperatures will be in the upper 90s, close to 100 degrees... and again our heat index values will be between 100 and 105... HOT!!

We also have another OZONE ACTION DAY for Sunday... and this will probably continue into the beginning of the week, too... as nothing is really changing for us!

This is definitely A/C weather, that's for sure! If you don't have A/C... try to hit the mall, a library or a movie. And as you may know, NBC Action News is a media partner for Project ElderCool. ElderCool provides air conditioning for Kansas City’s low-income elderly. If you or someone you know is need, please call Bishop Sullivan Center at 816-231-0984.

Jamie
WEATHER PLUS is now streaming online!

Posted by at 4:33 PM | Comments (6)

Orange Alert

Good morning, all! The heat starts here!

We are under an OZONE ALERT today, as sunshine combined with warm temperatures will help to increase ground-level ozone values. If you have trouble breathing, it is recommended you stay indoors and don't over-do it today!

Our upper level ridge will be building towards us today, putting our high temperatures in the upper 90s this afternoon. With the humidity, our heat index values could be in the range of 100 to 105 degrees! Here is the upper ridge on the latest run of the NAM:

Click to enlarge

The ridge will be with us through mostof next week, keeping high temperatures near (and at times ABOVE) 100 degrees, and low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. With the first real heat wave of the season upon us, the NWS Pleasant Hill has put together a nice website talking about heat illnesses and how to protect yourself.

NWS HEAT PAGE

Coming into work this morning... in the clear sky... I noticed a planet! It is VENUS, and should be shining brightly in the northeast sky... rather high... during the pre-dawn hours. And conditions will be good to view the planet over the next several days, as skies should be clear. Did you know that 2 days on Venus are equal to 500 days on Earth?? Pretty cool! :)

Don't forget about WEATHER PLUS now streaming online! Thanks for the feedback for those of you who have emailed/commented! Keep 'em coming!

Have a good one,
Jamie

Posted by at 6:27 AM | Comments (5)

Changes start today!

Another night... more rainfall for much of the viewing area! Here is a look at the Doppler Rainfall Estimates through this morning:

The heaviest rainfall occured across the northern part of the area... with amounts ranging from 1" to upwards of 3". For the southern half... it was morel like a half inch to an inch or so. However, the heavier band to the southwest in Kansas was a range of 1 to 2". So quite the wet, active period for us here! Now... we quiet down and wait for the heat to build in! Here is an interesting picture sent into us by Julie Kelly:

She took this in Warrensburg... when she noticed the bank sign was reading a little TOO hot! :) But triple-digit heat IS in the forecast as we go through the weekend and into next week.

In other news... Weather Plus is now streaming on our website!! Please let us know how you like it:

NBC ACTION WEATHER PLUS

Have a great day!
Jamie

Posted by at 1:29 PM | Comments (10)

7:45 PM update

Good evening, Live ESP radar is showing a decreasing area of thunderstorms. This is a very strange evening and I am not liking these trends. An outflow boundary is moving away from the thunderstorms and nothing is forming on it. Thunderstorms will likely begin forming north of the outflow boundary and we could be in for some heavy thunderstorms. The futher south you are the less likely these thunderstorms will make it to you. We'll see.

Up north there are 14 severe thunderstorm warnings right now. The main threat continues to be wind.

Gary

Posted by at 7:46 PM | Comments (20)

ESP trends

5:44 PM this evening

Thunderstorms are turning our way. This is going to be a very interesting next 5 hours. This thunderstorm event has a mind of its own right now. At this moment the thunderstorms are turning south right down I-29. We will know more every hour. I like what I see at this moment, but this will evolve and some areas could very well get missed, yet others will get blasted. Winds in excess of 70 mph is the main threat.

The new GFS just came out with the end to the heat wave and wet conditions within 10 days. But, this is suspect at this moment. It will be very hot for a minor heat wave, then it could be over.

Gary

Posted by at 5:47 PM | Comments (4)

My thoughts on tonight

Click to enlarge (shows the 700 mb flow, the red things are rising motion valid 10 PM)

Click to enlarge (rainfall forecast by Friday from this mornings GFS)

These are my 11:25 AM thoughts and feelings. I see a few warning signs, but then again I see many ingredients pointing towards someone getting over 5 inches of rain. It will be forming north of us first and once we have a chance of thunderstorms they will be moving at a steady pace and organizing, pulsing up and down. I think it will be like the other night in some respects as 5 inches of rain could fall near the beginning of the event way up near the Nebraska and Iowa borders, but then shift southward later tonight. Two nights ago as it shifted southward many areas had excessive rainfall, especially on the Kansas side of the state line. What will happen this time? My feeling is that the Kansas City area will have the best chance come in around 1 AM or so. It is very difficult to say where the center of attraction will be. The GFS is trending towards it shifting to the Missouri side and then falling apart by sunrise. The NAM has it centered near the state line. I feel that it will hug the state line.

The top map shows the rising motion as it is moving into our area at 10 PM tonight. Be sure to watch the weathercasts and if I get the chance I will update this later on. I am going in early today as we have a lunchean with Corporate in town. So, we must get this forecast right.

Tomorrow we will talk about the heatwave and how long it could last. The models have been trending nicely towards it breaking down with more rain chances within 7 days.

Gary

Posted by at 11:28 AM | Comments (12)

Excessive rainfall in the forecast

Click to enlarge (GFS forecast rainfall ending Friday morning)

Click to enlarge (NAM forecast rainfall by early Friday morning)

A strange and very heavy rainfall event is likely tonight. But, where will it be centered. The computer models are all converging on a solution of bringing the axis of heaviest rain down the state line. We won't really have a grasp on this until the thunderstorms begin forming this evening. Right now I feel they will form near the state line in Nebraska close to Omaha and then organize and move south southeast right over our region. More on this later.

Then the heat will build in. More later today on this potentially exciting weather situation for tonight. What happened two nights ago could again happen tonight with 4 to 6 inch rainfall potential.

Gary

Posted by at 7:06 AM | Comments (8)

The weather is still interesting

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow showing disturbance moving our way)

Good evening, the above map shows a fairly significant upper level storm that will be tracking south into our region Thursday night. This will very likely produce a lot of thunderstorms and we should be able to pinpoint the most likely locations by tomorrow morning. Speaking of tomorrow morning, watch out. There are thunderstorms right now over central Kansas. This is a disturbance that will be drifting our way, and combined with a weak front still just west of KC we could have thunderstorms near the state line on Thursday morning.

Now, onto a phone conversation I had with a viewer this afternoon. He criticized me for not being honest about my forecast for last nights rain. I must have said something on the air that made him think that I claimed "victory" for accurately predicting this. We had been talking about a big rain event for early this week for over 7 days. He claims that since at 10 PM on Monday night I had backed off and taken the chance of rain down that we were wrong on the forecast. I tried to explain that we had said some areas could get 5 inches of rain early this week......a week earlier. We shouldn't have backed off on Monday night, but I still feel we predicted this event as well as you can anyway. He didn't understand that thunderstorm events often can't be predicted precisely until hours before they happen. Oh well. What do you think?

The heat wave beginning this weekend is a tough call on how high the temperatures will go. We still don't have a feeling on this. It has been 1050 days since our last 100 degree day at KCI. That's right........1,050 days. August 23, 2003 is our last 100 degree day at KCI.

And, the weather pattern is about to die out. We are seeing weak evidence of the demise of this pattern that we have been in since October. So, get ready. The party begins sometime soon. It could take anywhere from 7 to 20 more days. But, according to my theory it will happen.

Gary

Posted by at 6:05 PM | Comments (21)

Deluge!

Good evening. No time. Those of you on the south side are having an event, and those off to the east as well. Wow! We are getting reports of close to 4 inches of rain already. More later.
9:07 PM ESP IMAGE

Above, wow! You can see the training echoes, some of which weren't training but actually stalled. Over 4 inch to 5 inch amounts seem likely. Officially, 5.66" fell at New Century Airport in Gardner, 3.65" at Johnson County Executive in Olathe. 3.24" fell in one hour at New Century, with 1.45" the next hour, AMAZING!

Gary

Posted by at 8:55 PM | Comments (32)

Thunderstorms growing this morning

Good morning! Well, today could be the day. Thunderstorms are developing for several reasons. There is a very weak front near Kansas City this morning, an upper level trough still centered to the west over central Kansas, and copious amounts of moisture. There is a chance these thunderstorms will continue to evolve and bring us some beneficial rainfall. I like what I am seeing, but let's see how it looks in an hour.

After this moves by, there are already interesting things going on for Thursday and Friday. Just as it appears a heat wave may build in, an upper low may form over Kansas on the edge of the upper high. This could bring some thunderstorms to our area and prevent us from getting the extreme heat, but by Saturday or Sunday I think the heat will overtake us. It may not last that long, but this is where the models diverge. More on this later.

Have a great day.

Update at 8:35 AM.....Everything fell apart. Are you shocked? Later today there is a chance as the upper level trough moves through. This is driving me nuts.

Gary

Posted by at 6:47 AM | Comments (19)

Here comes the wave, then is it over?

The wave I was talking about in the last entry is rapidly moving through. Amazingly, it has just a few moderate rain showers wrapped around it. It should be a ball of thunderstorms, but not this year. There is still some hope later this evening, but I see no evidence of anything at this moment.
ESP at 2:15 PM

Gary

Posted by at 2:18 PM | Comments (3)

This afternoon's hope

Click to enlarge....visible satelite picture at 10:40 this morning

Above, is our only hope for today. The models do not handle this circulation well at all, in fact it is difficult to find it on any model. You can see that I placed an L where I believe the center of circulation is located on the satelite photo. If it is going to rain, this could be the important feature as the models are trending towards all of the rain going all around us and it is driving me a bit nuts. Let's see what happens as the atmosphere destablizes this afternoon ahead of this system. There will be limited sunshine, but dewpoints are high and we should make it into the 80s with even a little sun. I expect development by mid afternoon and then perhaps we get some nice thunderstorms this evening. But, it may completly lie within this circulation that is a disturbance heading towards us. Will it be unstable enough?

Gary

Posted by at 10:53 AM | Comments (7)

Morning storm system

6:32 AM Monday morning

7:07 AM ESP

7:32 AM Steady tropical morning rain

Good morning! We are having some tropical downpours this morning with a little bit of lightning and thunder. Yesterday, 0.58" fell over south Overland Park, yet many areas had barely a sprinkle. This morning the area of rain is moving in, but still acting strangely. Everyone will see rain this morning, and there could be some very heavy tropical downpours. This is the storm we were talking about all last week. It is here. Amazingly it is doing what we thought it would do. However, it still should be heavier. Something is still wrong with our region. This morning will end up with 1/2" to 1" around the area (some spots getting under 1/2"), but it should have been 1 to 2 inches. Hopefully everything will line up for another round or two in the next couple of days. Let's see what the new data shows.....

Gary

Posted by at 6:39 AM | Comments (2)

Rain!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 79
LOW: 71

Well moisture has returned to the area! Dew points are well into the 60s, and many of you have had scattered showers throughout the day. The area of rain this afternoon remained a little farther north than I thought it would be... even affecting parts of the Metro. Here is a look at some rainfall totals around the area so far today:

KCI: Trace
DOWNTOWN: .11"
OLATHE: .22"
MISSION: .40"
LENEXA: .22"
LEE'S SUMMIT: .10"
ST. JOSEPH: None
TOPEKA: .29"
EMPORIA: .48"
PLEASANT HILL: .14"
GARY'S HOUSE (SOUTHERN OP): .58"

They have been light, but there are some patches of higher amounts. And here is a look at the Doppler Estimates as of 3:30pm:

Click to enlarge

As I talked about yesterday, cloud cover would dictate what our temperatures did this afternoon... and they did just that! Many locations did not get out of the 70s today. Although up towards St. Joseph, where you saw a bit more sunshine, you were into the lower 80s.

Anyway, the chance of rain will continue Monday and Tuesday. We still could see some heavier rains out of this system... so don't count that out yet! Tonight we will watch for a round of thunderstorms to develop and move in. This could be one round of heavier rain tonight/tomorrow AM... with another possible round late Tuesday. Here is a look at the NAM's rainfall totals from this afternoon's run:

Click to enlarge

This is why we have been talking about this storm for about a week now! And those of you that have been missing out on the rains... this looks like a good chance for you to finally cash in!

Now about that heat... temperatures look to be rising into the upper 90s by the end of the week. Take a look at the 850 mb charts below. The first is where we are today... the second is where we'll be by the end of the week:

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Finally... here is a letter our weekend anchor, Keith King, received from a friend:

"I'm sending this to everyone I know. Today while out riding, I encountered a dog w/ her little puppy laying next to her under a bridge--they were in a spot where folks tend to dump their crap, and they were laying, emaciated, on top of an old mattress. They looked like they hadn't been fed in weeks. I sprinted home, got my car and returned for them--they hopped into my car immediately (no tags on either). Then I heard some yelping coming from a bit further down the bank near the water. I go down and find a cardboard box stashed next to the bridge with 4 more little starved puppies in it. I took all 6 dogs to the Mission Vet (off Broadmoor) and had them all checked out. We think they're a boxer-mixed breed, puppies are about 6-8 weeks old, Mom is 24 lbs and is black and looks like a boxer; she is heartworm free and will be in good shape once she eats and drinks for a few days. She is the sweetest dog and the puppies are hilarious!! As I am moving, have my own dog, and live in a small apartment, I'm in big trouble with 7 dogs...so I'm temporarily fostering them until I can find good homes. I've placed 3 and have 2 puppies and mom remaining. Puppies are both female, one is black, one is tan (runt of the litter). Mom has a GREAT disposition and is very young herself. If anyone wants a dog, please contact me!!"

So if any of you are interested... you can email Keith at:
king@nbcactionnews.com

Thanks and have a good evening!
Jamie

Posted by at 3:12 PM | Comments (7)

Temperature Update

Just an update to high temps this afternoon. There is a lot of cloud cover, and it is extending farther to the North... so I am now thinking lower 80s will be the rule across most of the Metro and areas to the South. Some areas might not even get out of the 70s! But places to the North like St. Joseph and Maryville should still get into the mid 80s.

Lots of clouds out there, though:

Jamie

Posted by at 11:19 AM

Morning Rain

Good morning! It was nice to see the pavement wet in Overland Park this morning! Depending on where you are... you may have seen a little rain overnight. Here is a look at doppler estimates... you can see how light it has been:

The heaviest amounts are on the Kansas side. As we go through the morning hours, scattered showers will continue... keep tabs on where the rain is with LIVE ESP

The afternoon looks dry, and clouds should be around (especially to the Southwest of KC). High temperatures will depend on the cloud cover... I still think upper 80s to near 90 look good, with mid 80s Southwest in the thicker cloud cover.

With our slow-moving storm... the potential for showers/t-storms continues for the next few days. Again, it is not going to rain the whole time... and not everyone will see rain... but we do have our chances. Timing is very tricky with our slow-moving storm! After this morning, the next chance looks like it could be tonight into Monday morning. I will have an evening update, and that is when we'll talk more about the building heat for the end of the week!

Have a great day!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:33 AM

Evening Update

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 89
LOW: 63

Hello, again! You may have noticed the thicker cloud cover to the west this evening... this is coming from showers and thunderstorms ongoing in Kansas. Here is the evening image on ESP, click to see the most current image:

Over the next few days, we will continue with a CHANCE of showers and thunderstorms. It will not rain the whole time... and not everyone will even SEE rain... but there is a disturbance that will s-l-o-w-l-y track just to the North of Kansas City. This is the disturbance we have been talking about for awhile now... and it is looking even slower on the models this evening. Here it is on the satellite image:

Click to enlarge

Ahead of the disturbance, moisture is being transported northward. The areas of highest moisture are still west of Kansas City... but that air will slowly work it's way in our direction. As the disturbance tracks north of us, we have to watch for smaller upper level features to break away and move towards us. This is why the chance of rain will continue for several days as this whole system works its way across the Central US. Once it is east of us, (right now, that looks like Wednesday), the rain chances will shut off... and the heat will build back in!

We will talk more about the heat tomorrow!!
Enjoy your evening!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:58 PM

Weekend Forecast

Good morning! Our Weekend Today Show is on extra early today, because of Wimbledon later this morning. Same story again on Sunday... Today will start at 6am!

Not much has changed in terms of the forecast. We will stay quiet (dry) and warm today, with highs in the mid-upper 80s across the area. Tonight, the rain chances go up to 30% as a front will move into the area. Here is the NAM for tonight:

Click to enlarge

Not overly impressive, but a few thunderstorms are possible. Sunday is tricky... I think most of the day will be dry and even a little warmer than today. You can see on the NAM, how things can heat up right ahead of a frontal boundary:

Click to enlarge

It's called "compressional heating"... and air parcels in the atmosphere decend.. compress... heat... and thus the higher temperatures. Temperatures will also be dependent on cloud-cover... more clouds... cooler readings. But right now, I am going for 90 degrees for KC!

The chance of showers and thunderstorms still looks higher with that upper wave Monday into Tuesday! I hope you enjoy your weekend!

Jamie

Posted by at 6:06 AM | Comments (1)

It's still there!

Good Friday night in the Big Town!

I just got back from the new Downtown Kansas City, Barney Allis Plaza, tennis arena. It is really awesome with the backdrop of the city buildings. You really look at KC in a different and unique way. Try to get out to one of the Explorers tennis matches this month and take it in.

The storm we have been tracking is still showing up. It is amazing how the weather works. You see a possible storm on the data 5 to 7 days away. But, what is happening? The weather pattern is always shifting, so when you wake up the next morning the same storm system may still be showing up on the data, but it is now associated with a slightly different set up since the pattern changed a bit in the past 24 hours. Does this make any sense?

Well, now we are within two days of the system slowly moving across Kansas and the plains. It has to rain, but where will the heaviest rain and thunderstorms be? Let's see how it looks on Sunday. Speaking of Sunday a weak front barely gets here at the same time the dewpoints are finally rising so we may get some bonus thunderstorms on Sunday.

Click to enlarge (this is the Monday through Tuesday rainfall forecast)

The above shows 2 to 4 inch rainfall amounts accumulating near the state line. I have a feeling it will get exciting.

After this goes by the next part of the weather pattern should allow another mini heat wave to build in. The hottest time of the year on average is the last week of July and the first week of August.

Have a great weekend.

Gary

Posted by at 8:22 PM | Comments (2)

Fab Friday

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 84
LOW: 64

It's been another nice day weather-wise! Highs have been in the mid 80s across the area, and once again... dew points were rather low, so we didn't have to worry about any mugginess! (Is that a word??) ;)

Gary is LIVE tonight at Barney Allis Plaza... for the Explorers opening match! What a great evening for tennis! I am a pretty big tennis fan... the sport runs in my family. I have been addicted to Wimbledon this week, and cannot wait to go to an Explorers match!

Anyway, we should see slightly warmer temperatures as we head into the weekend. There may be a few spotty thunderstorms around early Sunday as a weak cold front washes out over the area.

AND our rain chances from the upper wave are still showing up (see Gary's blogs below). The timing has changed, as it is now looking like it will be Monday into Tuesday. Here it is on this afternoon's NAM:

Click to enlarge

I have had a few requests to post the warning forecast game again, so here it is... have fun!

NWS HOT SEAT WARNING SIMULATOR

Have a great evening, see you over the weekend!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:08 PM | Comments (2)

The latest trend in the computer models

Good afternoon everyone,

The trend in the models is for the system to go further south Sunday and Monday, but a weak cold front to get close to us and we may still get some thunderstorms. This is the trend so let's see if this trend gains momentum.

Click to enlarge

All of the new data has trended towards us struggling for even a chance of rain. So, I feel horrible about tracking this system and bringing your hopes up. Jeff and I just looked at each other in shock as the new GFS came in showing the weak system staying well south of us. Let's see what the new data shows tonight. Maybe this is a bad run.

The weather today is awesome!

Gary

Posted by at 4:02 PM | Comments (9)

Contest Guesses

Good morning, everyone!

Now, it is time for the NBC Action Weather Team to reveal OUR guesses at the Hottest Day of the Summer contest. Here ya go:

Brett: August 11, 4:13 PM
Jeff: August 22, 3:58 PM
Gary: August 6, 4:01 PM
Jamie: August 21, 4 PM

So far, the hottest temperature was 98 degrees a few days ago... on July 2nd. Stay tuned to see who wins the contest! (which, by the way, is closed to new entries!)

Today will NOT be in the running for hottest day, as temperatures will be warm, but comfortable. We will see highs in the mid 80s, and plenty of sunshine. This is all thanks to a strong high that will build down right on top of us:

Click to enlarge

Expect dry conditions, and a slow warming trend as we head into the first half of the weekend. We're still watching rain chances for Sunday... see Gary's entry below for more info!

I hope you enjoy a beautiful day!!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:46 AM | Comments (6)

Strange weekend storm?

Good late morning or afternoon everyone,

We hope you had a great holiday! It was wild, more firecrackers and booms than I can ever remember.

O.K., the latest data is pointing towards a strange weekend storm system tracking across our region. This fits with the pattern as we are moving into the early November part of the pattern which has repeated in January, and in March, somehow skipping May or in a weak and barely visible state. This is the "parade of storms" part of the pattern. And, it is July. Skeptics will say, "oh come on, it is summer the pattern can't be the same". But we know better. It still is and this is the only explanation for the crashing of the heights in the upper level flow over the weekend.

This doesn't mean we will for sure get hit by this, but man, look at the latest GFS run. Total precipitation between Sunday and Monday. More later, be sure to watch our newscasts tonight as we attempt to explain this and forecast this possible event. Since it is a few days away it could certainly change, but this has been consistent for days now.

Click to enlarge (60 hour total from Saturday through Monday)

This area of forecasted precipitation could go a state further north, or further south so don't get too excited, but it is better than looking at a heat wave building in, certainly more exciting for now.
Gary

Posted by at 11:22 AM | Comments (4)

We got hit! Let's look ahead....

5 AM, I have had no sleep. I am going to cover these thunderstorms on the radio for another hour and then get some sleep.

click to enlarge, this is the total precipitation for the storm

We got blasted. 1 to nearly 3 inches of rain has fallen and widespread. Hopefully you were able to enjoy it as it is still pouring down rain with frequent lightning right now at 5:20 AM. More later. It will move out of here later this morning and then it will be dry for the fireworks. Happy Independence Day!

Click to enlarge (GFS rainfall forecast for later this weekend)

Above, you can see the latest forecast from the GFS for rainfall days 5 through 6. This is really just fantasy at this moment, but it has been consistant for the past three runs. What is happening? The ridge aloft is forecast to flatten and shift to Texas, so instead of tremendous heat building into our region we could get some nice ridge riding thunderstorms. But, as I said, it is just fantasy at this moment.

Gary

Posted by at 5:21 AM | Comments (14)

Thunderstorms likely?

Good evening! Thunderstorms are developing in a very favorable position to blast us overnight. I expect it to hit us with fairly widespread 1" rainfall amounts by early in the morning. And some local areas could have more than 2 inches. At least this is how I feel right now. There is a clear spin in the radar echoes over the developing complex of thunderstorms over northern Kansas. This is very likely going to move east southeast right over the Kansas City metro area around sunrise. If this happens there is no way we can miss this one. Let's see what happens. I better not be explaining myself in the morning.

Happy fourth of July! It should completely dry out by the afternoon.

Gary

Posted by at 9:38 PM | Comments (6)

Thunderstorms?

The same old story.......The same pattern......producing the same results! Below is the predicted precipitation by the GFS for tonight into tomorrow. Yesterday it had us in the bullseye, and today it has the Kansas City area perhaps getting missed. After this front moves through Tuesday I don't even see another chance of rain.

Click to enlarge (forecast rainfall through Tuesday)

Remember, according to my theory, the weather pattern that develops between October and November will completely fall apart and die within a month. I used to think it happened around July 15th to 20th, but last year it took until around the first few days of August. How do you know when it is gone? Well, it should be easy this year as this pattern has been horrible for us. Cold fronts will act differently, align differently. Storm systems moving across Canada will have a different look to them. It is a chaotic transition and I am ready for it. Can you imagine a cold front that lights up with thunderstorms to our west and then the thunderstorms actually move our way without falling apart? But, can you imagine a massive heat wave that is in this transition period? Anything is possible.

Gary

Posted by at 11:16 AM | Comments (6)

T-Storms North

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 98
LOW: 72

Wow... today felt warmer to me... and the reason why... our dew points did come up a bit. Today we spent the afternoon with dew points right around 60 degrees across the area. This helps to make it feel even warmer outside... we did have a small heat index this afternoon. Just a couple of degrees... but for some reason, I could really feel it!

Anyway, the moisture has REALLY increased up to our north. Check out the dewpoints in Northern Missouri into Iowa this late afternoon:

In that area of greater moisture... as we've gotten some afternoon heating, we have seen some scattered thunderstorms develop. Here is the 5pm look at ESP:

Click for the current image

Those thunderstorms are moving east, so they do not pose a threat to the Kansas City Metro area. But for those of you in our northern counties, you will continue to see scattered thunderstorm activity through the evening hours. With any of these cells, you can expect frequent lightning, gusty winds and small hail. Some of the stronger thunderstorms could put down a quick half-inch of rain, too.

On Monday... I am going with a 30% chance of thunderstorms for areas north of Kansas City during the afternoon. The Southern half of the viewing area should stay dry until at least the evening hours. That is when the chance of rain will increase to 60% for everyone... and overnight into Tuesday is when our main rain event should be. There is still the potential for heavy rain, which, as you know, we need! The good news (for those that want rain) there won't be much of a cap... AND our dew points should come up more Monday/Tuesday... so that means more moisture to work with. We will have an update tonight on NBC Action News at 10pm! And of course tomorrow in the AM and PM with Brett and Gary!

Have a great night! I hope you are enjoying the holiday weekend!
Jamie

Posted by at 4:55 PM | Comments (3)

Another day... more 90s...

Good morning!

Get ready for another HOT one, today. It will be much like yesterday, with sunshine and highs in the mid-upper 90s around the area. There may be a little more high-cloudiness as the day goes on... but it will be hot, nonetheless! If you have outdoor plans, again, the good news is that the humidity won't be a very big issue. And there will be a nice southwest breeze to bring some relief, once again. If you're lucky enough to be heading to the lakes... another bonus... water temperatures should be near 80 degrees!

Also, remember it's an OZONE ACTION DAY! You can read more about this in last night's blog entry below.

We are still watching for a slow moving cold front to work its way into the Kansas City area. It looks like the best chance of showers and thunderstorms is still Monday night/Tuesday morning. Some areas could see some heavier rainfall... it it still a bit of a question as to WHERE those areas will be. Here are the GFS and the NAM 60-hour precip forecasts through Tuesday PM:

Click the GFS to enlarge

Click the NAM to enlarge

Otherwise... not much to talk about beyond this rain chance! I hope you have a great day... stay cool!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:26 AM | Comments (2)

NBC Action... Ozone Action!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 97
LOW: 73

Hello, again! I hope you have been staying cool! Once again we were in the mid-upper 90s across the area. A few places in Kansas broke into the triple digits... Russell, KS hit 100... and Hill City made it up to 102! Wow!

One REALLY good thing with all of the heat... we DON'T really have the humidity. So our heat index values have NOT been an issue, thank goodness! Just remember to seek out shade, drink plenty of water, wear light-colored/loose-fitting clothing, and take it easy outdoors during the peak heating hours. Also, make sure to check on children and the elderly... who are more likely to suffer a heat-related illness. And don't forget about the pets!! :)

We also have an OZONE ACTION ALERT for Sunday. What is that, you ask? Well, ground-level ozone is the biggest contributor to smog! High accumulation of ozone in the lower atmosphere can be harmful to people, animals, crops, and other materials. For some, breathing it can cause shortness of breath, coughing, chest tightness, or irritation of nose and throat.

It is created when nitrogen oxide gases mix with volatile organic compounds on hot, sunny days. These gaseous compounds mix like a thin soup in the atmosphere, and when they interact with sunlight, ozone is formed.

Soooo to help REDUCE the amount of pollutants in the air:

* Try to Carpool
* Ride the Bus... it's only 25 cents on Ozone Action Days!
* Wait until after 7pm to refuel vehicles
* Do not mow your lawn or use gas-powerd tools. If you MUST do it, try to wait until after 7pm.

Now for the monthly wrap-up from our friends the NWS:

...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CHARACTERIZED SAINT JOSEPH WEATHER IN JUNE...

PRECIPITATION AT SAINT JOSEPH WAS 1.31 INCHES...OR 2.90 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL. THIS RANKS AS THE 6TH DRIEST JUNE FOR SAINT JOSEPH SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1898.

Have a good evening!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:08 PM | Comments (2)

Still Baking

Good morning!

The heat will continue for us today! On Friday, we made it to 95 at KCI... so we should do that or a few degrees hotter today. We are so hot, thanks to a big upper ridge that has been building in. You can see it on the map below, encompassing the Western part of the country:

Click to enlarge

That ridge will begin to break down, or flatten, as we go into the beginning of this week. Here is the upper flow, valid for Monday:

Click to enlarge

As the ridge flattens out, you can see waves moving towards Kansas City. There will also be a surface front nearby on Monday. That front will sag into our area Monday night/Tuesday... bringing us the chance of some much-needed rain! Hopefully Platte, Leavenworth, Wyandotte and Jackson counties will get in on it this time, as you all really missed out last time around. And KCI needs the rain, as it is where our "official" records come from. So while many of you have seen a few good soakings... KCI is actually one of the drier places around these parts! Here are the numbers as we continue to dry out:

We'll get a better feel for rainfall coverage and timing as we go into Sunday night/Monday! Stay tuned, and try to stay cool...
Jamie

Posted by at 6:56 AM | Comments (2)