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1057 day streak should end today
Good morning! The last 100 degree temperature recorded at KCI airport was way back on August 26th, 2003. This is 1057 days ago and this streak will end today, I believe. I am expecting it to get up to 102 this afternoon. There is a weak cold front approaching that will help direct our winds to the southwest just ahead of the front and it will force the 850 mb winds to become westerly this afternoon and bring some warmer air in just above us around 5,000 feet up. The cap is so strong that there should be limited cloud cover, with perhaps a few cumulus clouds near the wind shift line.
When will this break? A second cold front is due in Thursday night or Friday. It will be battling the warm air mass as it approaches. But it should cool us off 5 to 10 degrees, but for how long? The weather pattern is still the same one that set up last fall. We are seeing signs of its demise, but it is still there right now. The colder part of this pattern is due in here within a week or so, but will we be in a new pattern by then? I expect our old pattern to die within two weeks or so.
Gary
Posted by at July 17, 2006 6:06 AM
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Gary, I just read your blog and was wanting to know about these weather patterns that you are talking about are. This new pattern that might be forming is it going to bring cooler weather and rain? This new pattern going to be good for us or bad for us?
Thanks,
Megan
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Megan,
According to my theory the weather pattern we are in now should fall apart within the next two weeks or so. Whatever pattern sets up seems to be rather abritrary, as we go into chaotic transition into the next pattern. Given the time of year it is often unnoticed.
But, it can be quite noticeable as well. Remember the "Flood of 1993"? That year was an extremely wet summer pattern that abruptly ended near the end of July. The rain just shut off as the pattern changed.
This year, well, we must wait and see because I believe it is unpredictable until the change occurs.
Gary
Posted by: megan at July 17, 2006 7:29 AM
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Hello Gary,
I'd like to know what the dew point is. Can it be found on the NBC Action News website?
Thanks,
JW
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JW,
I just looked myself and there is no dewpoint on our website. I will look into this today. The dewpoint at 8 AM is 71 degrees.
Gary
Posted by: JW at July 17, 2006 7:49 AM
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What does the temp look like for the first full week of august for the lake of the ozarks. thanks
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It is too early to tell, but probably cooler than now.
Gary
Posted by: brad thompson at July 17, 2006 12:18 PM
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Hello Gary,
Hopefully, a new exciting pattern will emerge within the next two weeks. You mentioned that this weather pattern cycles, but does it become more clearly defined in the fall season? I am hoping for a pattern that is cold and snowy, something that is rare around here anymore.
Devin
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Devin,
More on this later, so keep reading. The pattern sets up from October 10th to November 10th every year.
Gary
Posted by: Devin at July 17, 2006 12:39 PM
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St. Louis is under an "Excessive Heat Warning" with predicted temp of 100 and heat index of 107.
Kansas City is in a "Heat Advisory" with roughly the same numbers (higher predicted heat index in fact).
Why would KC be designated differently if the numbers are the same? Is it because Kansas Citians, as usual, are much more intelligent that folks from St. Louis and know to get out of the heat?
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Hank,
They should have had us in one already, but we are in one now.
Gary
Posted by: hank at July 17, 2006 1:50 PM
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Gary,
I can hardly wait to see a change in the pattern. Just like you this has been a long boring time. I was over at my fathers house last evening. We were outside in the yard. He said to me. Well Rodney there is one thing that still has not changed? I said what is that? He said it's july and it is hot and humid,and dry, and you can still hear the locust singing. He said this is how he has always remembered summer to be. I think for the most part so do i.
-Rodney
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Rodney,
It is July and it is suppose to be hot. And, it usually rains during July with these heatwaves in between. Hopefully it will rain Friday.
Gary
Posted by: rodney spurgeon at July 17, 2006 2:15 PM
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JW,
The Humidity is posted on this site if you click on the "Live Action Weather Plus" link on the homepage.
David
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David,
Thanks.
Gary
Posted by: David at July 17, 2006 3:53 PM
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Gary:
I was wondering if you would have an opinion on whether or not there could be an early frost for the northern plains as the ridge moves west. I get a weather forecast from 3F Forecasts that Larry Acker puts out and last year he mentioned that there could be an early August frost for the Dakotas and Minn. this year. He has not had this in any recent updates though. I was just wondering what you thought of this. He also said that next year the Ill. area would have a hard time getting a crop. Is there a drought scenario setting up in the southeast that could be moving west into the corn belt next year?
I just wanted to let you know what is being tossed out there as far as long range forecasts, that is why it will be interesting to see the Oct. 10th-Nov. 10th time frame sets up.
Thanks again
Rod
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Rod,
You know what I believe. Any forecast that comes out for long range predictions of drought or whatever has absolutely no basis at all at this time of the year. The weather pattern is dying and a new pattern is about to evolve and then set up between those critical fall dates as you describe above. So, no one knows. After the pattern sets up then we can talk and we will beat all of those predictions based on my theory. It works very well as we learn even more every year.
Gary
Posted by: Rod at July 17, 2006 10:10 PM
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