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Dog Days
Good morning everyone,
How are you dealing with this latest heat wave? It was 102 degrees yesterday and it should go higher today. Then Wednesday, as the cold front approaches, could be the hottest day of the year if there is limited cloud cover. The hottest temperatures are often just ahead of the cold front which should be just northwest of us Wednesday evening. There should be a lot of thunderstorm activity near the frontal zone on Wednesday night into Thursday as you can see the GFS forecast rainfall on the second map below.

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow, valid Monday night)
The above map shows the 500 mb flow for tonight. We are in a tropical but very capped south to southwest flow aloft. This flow usually would be quite moist but it is so warm aloft that there is just no cloud cover being generated. This could change by Wednesday as the front approaches.

Click on map to enlargeGFS forecast rainfall (Wednesday through Thursday Forecast)
The above map shows the rainfall forecast for mid to late week. That is a lot of rain, but will we be left frustrated again? Hopefully not. We will analyze all of the new data today and later on this evening I will let you know what the trends are.
After this goes by the models are trending towards the heat building back in over the weekend. My forecast day for the hottest of the year was August 6th. I don't really want to win, but it does look like we could be back up to over 100 by then.
GREAT EVENT FOR YOU AND YOUR DOG
Do you have a dog? There is a great event coming up at Arrowhead stadium. "Dog's night out" with the Kansas City Wizards a week from Saturday night (August 12th). For just $20 you and your dog get a club level pet/owner ticket with additional tickets just $10 per person. Breezy, Stormy and I will be there. So, get your tickets and come on out. There will be a "Doggie Street" before the game with fun activities for your dog and vendor booths. Below are a couple of pictures that were taken for the "Paw Prints" magazine photo shoot. This magazine is available at many locations throughout the Kansas City metro area. Pick up a copy when you get the chance. You can see Windy as well. We hope to see you on August 12th! All proceeds go to the Kansas City Pet Project!

Click to enlarge cover of Paw Prints magazine
Windy, Stormy, Breezy on a Paw Prints photo shoot
Stormy looking into the camera
Try to stay cool. Have a great day!
Gary
Posted by at July 31, 2006 7:06 AM
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Gary,
Is it safe to say the odds are very high that the winter of 06-07 will be colder and hopefully more snowy then 05-06 was? I know its very early still.
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Jon,
The ods are very much in our favor that it will be colder and wetter next fall and winter. But, this doesn't guarantee anything.
Gary
Posted by: Jon at July 31, 2006 9:58 AM
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Change in pattern, same result?
Well, the last couple of weeks I've been reading in this blog about a change in the overall weather pattern. Haven't read anything lately - has this occurred? If so it really hasn't changed anything -- still hot and dry...
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Doug,
We believe the pattern has changed. But, at this time of the year you may not notice the results at least for a while. The jet stream is way north and the changes that occur will affect us, but maybe not noticeably. The really big change occurs in October and November when a unique, brand new weather pattern sets up.
In the mean time, we can only hope that everything will act differently. Right now we are stuck with the high heights aloft and thus the very limited affect on our weather even though the pattern has changed.
Gary
Posted by: Doug at July 31, 2006 10:23 AM
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Good morning Gary:)
I know this is off topic, but I wanted to say your dogs are so adorable! I think it's so cool that you work in an enviroment where they can be with you. Windy looks amazing for an older lady :) (I saw the pic of her with her new summer do..lol) I know our 2 boys are ready for fall and cooler weather. We are so looking forward to the break in the heat at the end of the week.
Have a good day :)
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Donna,
Thank you! Windy just walked up to me as I am getting ready to leave for work. She is amazing, but at the same time she will be 17 in November. We enjoy every day with her. Her mind is still sharp, but her body is slowly giving out. This heat is not good for her.
Have a great day! Stay cool.
Gary
Posted by: Donna at July 31, 2006 11:21 AM
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I do notice a difference between this heat and the last wave of heat, one the dew points are in check, and it is alot windier.
By the way, do you believe that a drought that is already in existence could cause a GRC that without a drought would be wetter to be drier and that this is what causes multi-year droughts like the (1930's)or do you belive you have to just get a series of "dry" GRC patterns to cause that or is it possibly a little bit of both? Thanks for your time.
Nick.
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Nick,
Good observations as it is windier. This is one of the big differences to the pattern we had been in.
The drought will have no influence on the weather pattern that sets up. If it is another dry pattern it will be just a coincidence and it will make the drought that much worse. But, if it is a wet pattern then we can hope for it to be followed by a second wet weather pattern the next year. EVERY YEAR is unique.
Gary
Posted by: Nick Rau at July 31, 2006 12:47 PM
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Gary,
I was just wondering when do you think that we will finally be rid of this heat? I know that there is a cold front that is on its way, but I then I noticed that in your blog that you were talking about it could get hot again over the weekend. I am from Kansas City and I know that it is normal for us to get hot, but I don't remember us being this hot and staying hot like this. Do you think that the whole of August is going to be hot?
On a lighter note, I just wanted to say thank you for all the hard work that you and your staff have been doing. I know that it must be easy dealing with hot and cranky people, but it nice to have a weather staff that you can trust.
Megan
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Megan,
First of all from all of us here at NBC ACTION NEWS.....Thank you for the kind comments.
This kind of heat has happened many times in our history. 1980 and 1988 were worse, but this year is beginning to get close. If it heats up again we may have to start comparing more closely. At least we do get a break with each hot surge. We are just analyzing the heat potential for next week.
Gary
Posted by: Megan at July 31, 2006 1:57 PM
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At 2:45 PM, 101 degrees in the shade here at my new home in West Central Lawrence, about 3 miles NW of my previous home at 23rd and Iowa!
I agree with previous posters....it is very hot obviously but it is not quite as oppressive outside today as it was during the last heatwave...not as humid, more air moving around. Tolerable if you stay hydrated....although that's easy for me to say since I'm not a roofer or road construction worker! Everyone give the people who work outside in the heat a huge tip of the hat. Too often we take them for granted.
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John,
They are building a house next door to me right now. So, those guys are really dealing with extreme weather.
Gary
Posted by: John Sickels at July 31, 2006 2:50 PM
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Hi Gary-
Thanks for sharing pictures of Windy, Stormy, and Breezy! I know the heat has to be hard on Windy as it is hard on all of us! One thing I would like to remind people is to PLEASE don't leave your animals in the car with the windows rolled up! I saw this happen this weekend at the grocery store and it breaks my heart!
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Jeanie,
The amazing thing about leaving kids or pets in the car is that it only needs to be 75 degrees outside. Within 30 minutes it can be deadly.
Gary
Posted by: Jeanie at July 31, 2006 3:14 PM
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Hi there! A while back you asked for suggestions for the site. I wish the current temperature was displayed somewhere. I just came in from outside wondering just how hot is it out there. But, it doesn't look like current temps are on KSHB's site.
Just a thought...
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Carrie,
The current temperatures are there for you to click on. Go to weather and then just click on current temperatures on the right. This may not be the most convenient way of showing it though.
Gary
Posted by: Carrie at July 31, 2006 3:45 PM
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Gary, a comment you made makes me curious. Every year is different. Is this to say every GRC is different, or effects to this area are different based on other factors interacting with the GRC? I know in the tropics, there are analogue years where there are similar occurances, but yet the paths of storms etc are different. Are there any trends or similarities that could help regarding the GRC occurances year after year? By the way...you need to TM GRC..LOL. [Didn't I come up with that accronym?] ;-)
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Scott,
Yes you did, but will it stick? EVERY YEAR IS DIFFERENT AND THUS UNIQUE. An upper low in the four corners may look like another upper low in the four corners but there will be differences in the overall pattern. So, this October we will watch together as the new pattern develops, and even though it may seem similar to another pattern from another year it, it really will be completely different which is significant when the cycle starts to repeat.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at July 31, 2006 3:55 PM
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You made the nightly news just a few minutes ago! Nice big excessive heat wave graphic.
I missed the local news but sure got the gist of the message on the nightly news...haha.
Stay cool everyone!
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Jeff,
I was answering an email when they had me on the national news. Oh well.
Gary
Posted by: Jeff N at July 31, 2006 5:43 PM
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"I was answering an email when they had me on the national news. Oh well." ~Gary
It could be worse Gary, I was cleaning the bathroom, and just happened to hear your voice.
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Oh, it's worse. I was watching the National news and when they finished talking about the Middle East conflict I tuned out for a few seconds. So, I was looking at the TV and then just looked down and all of a sudden we got a call.
Still exciting though.
Gary
Posted by: Dave Arnold at August 1, 2006 8:59 AM
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