« 1057 day streak should end today |
| Strong heat wave will break »
Excessive Heat Warning!
Donna Mason July 17th at 2:47pm
Donna, not bad! Today at 2:37 PM it hit 100 degrees for the first time since August 26, 2003 at KCI. So, you are in as the hottest day of the year so far, unfortunately there is a lot of summer left and I think Thursday may be the day to beat.
We are in an Excessive Heat Warning probably through Thursday. The weak cold front may stall right near us Tuesday and then it really heats up Wednesday and Thursday.
New data is trending towards a VERY WET Friday and Saturday and much cooler.
Click to enlarge ( Friday through Sunday rainfall forecast)
Above is this mornings GFS rainfall forecast for Friday through Sunday. As usual don't get too excited yet. If this trend continues then we can get very excited tomorrow.
Posted by at July 17, 2006 4:33 PM
Good for Donna, but MAN I was off by a day! Your weather theory seems to be holding true even now. That's how I predicted a hot spell around this time. I simply extrapolated data from patterns I'd noticed repeating... quite frankly from your theory. Gary, you are amazing!
No, you are amazing! You used the theory and it worked!
Posted by: Beth at July 17, 2006 4:41 PM
Lollol...I wish I could take full credit for my pick today, my daughter helped with it :) But we do get bragging rights for today and that's pretty cool! Thanks Gary! This was fun to participate in :)Good luck to those who are still in the running, I do believe someone else will win this :)
Good luck Donna! You are leading.
Posted by: Donna at July 17, 2006 9:29 PM
Jamie answered my question about dew point yesterday (thanks.) Here is my other question. Is there a record high for Dew Point? I cannot remember ever seeing a dew point this high. I see it is 76. You would think if we had some lift, there would be some major rain. I thought High Pressure was usually dry, but boy not this one! Wow, this is amazing!
Almost every summer we get close to or go above an 80 degree dewpoint. We are often the most humid place in the nation on one or two days each summer. So, it is not that unusual. The dewpoints get high when the corn is doing well and there is a lot of moisture pooling over the corn fields of Iowa, Nebraska, and Missouri. Everything is actually lush and growing in our part of the world, but of course we will need more rain soon.
Posted by: Brian at July 17, 2006 9:46 PM
If Donna used the GRC to predict this day for the heat...then...Gary, what did you use to predict your date much later? ;-)
I decided to just pick a date near our climatologically hottest time of the year. The last week of July and the first week of August is when we are at our highest average highs of the year. So, I picked that date not knowing what the pattern may be because this pattern should be over by then.
I likely made a mistake on that call, since it is so hot now. This could be the heat wave of the summer, but as I like to say......"we'll see".
Posted by: Scott at July 18, 2006 12:58 AM
you keep saying this pattern will break down
in the next several weeks, any idea on what the new pattern will bring..ideally a lot of rain.
The pattern will likely die within a week or two. But, the new pattern that may exist is more like chaotic flow that is impossible to predict before it happens. This is VERY different than most other times of the year. And, since it is July and August it can't really be reliably predicted. Hopefully it will be cooler and wet. And, it may be, but then again I just don't know since it will be new.
Posted by: Steve Ambro at July 18, 2006 10:31 AM
Hello Mr. Lezak, I have a question about lightning.A guy that i work with said that lightning does something positive for the environment. Is this true? Does lightning do anything good for the environment?
I can't think of any real benefits from lightning environmentally.
Posted by: Ben Tracy at July 18, 2006 11:45 AM
I have a question... What is the difference between isolated storms and scattered storms? Just wondering! Thanks!
Isolated thunderstorms usually move very slowly and thus cover a very small area. And there are maybe two or three of them and that is it. Scattered thundertorms are more numerous and they move faster allowing for larger area coverage.
Posted by: Katie at July 18, 2006 1:50 PM
I noticed the above discussion on lightning and whether it has any positive effects on the environment. A positive effect that comes to mind is lightning causes forest fires, which allows for old growth to be burned away, enriching the soil and making room for new growth. Of course in very dry seasons, those fires can burn out of control and be a problem, but in normal seasons, those forest fires are a vital part of the forest's regrowth process.
I thought about mentioning the forest fire effect because of how many wild fires are also caused by lightning.
Posted by: Marlina at July 18, 2006 3:27 PM
I've always heard that the heat generated by lightning causes nitrogen fixation (producing nitrogen oxide by combining nitrogen and oxygen), which provides fertilizer like benefits to plants. I'm not sure how much could possibly be produced by lightning, but clearly this could be considered a positive benefit.
I have heard of this too. I am not an expert in this area, but would your lawn have to get fried to make the fertilizer?
Posted by: Dave Arnold at July 19, 2006 8:48 AM