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Extreme heat & then a big break
Good morning everyone. Windy got shaved yesterday and is still doing well at 16 years 8 months old. She seems to feel much better with her current hairdo!
16 year old Windy on July 18, 2006....just got shaved again
It will be very hot today and the dewpoints are still in the 70s which will create heat index values near 115 this afternoon. Below is the 850 mb map forecast for 1 AM tonight. You can see the 30 degree isotherm (86 degrees Fahrenheit) north of us and heading our way. It will gradually cool as it moves across on Thursday, but tomorrow could still be the hottest day of the year so far. 104 to 107 degrees is possible the next two days. Let's see what happens.
click to enlarge (Temperatures and flow at 850 mb, 5000 feet up 1 AM Thursday)
The wind shift line will move through late Thursday afternoon and evening and then the colder air will arrive Friday. But, will we see any rain. We have a big cap to break and I don't like the trends in the upper levels. So, let's wait and see what the new data shows tomorrow. We will go into north flow aloft Friday night and Saturday with MUCH drier air moving in with lower dewpoints. This will allow temperatures to be in the 80s this weekend. Below you can see the colder air moving in with the north winds Friday evening. It will feel good.
Click to enlarge (Surface map valid Friday evening.....ahhhhhh cooler)
Have a great day.
Posted by at July 19, 2006 10:15 AM
What does the temperature forecast look like next week for Tuesday the 25th through Thursday the 27th?
Also, I would be interested if you know on which days of the year the largest and smallest gaps occur between the normal high and low temperatures for the date.
I will have to look at the averages for your other question, but right now it appears we will be near 90 Tuesday through Thursday. Maybe a bit warmer.
Posted by: Al at July 19, 2006 10:32 AM
I noticed that other forecasters have the high temperatures over the weekend in the 90s. I even heard one say last night that "I just don't see anything" that breaks the heatwave.
What are you seeing that they aren't seeing or believing?
I hope you are right--I am tired of this oppressive heat!
I think you are the best in the area. I really enjoy watching your forecasts and love your enthusiasm for the weather.
Wow! It is amazing. We have to take this test every time and we win 99% of them. I am not saying we are always the best forecast in town, but 99% of the time we are. I see things differently than other forecasters. When it is going to turn colder it turns colder. This cold front is strong enough to drop us into the 80s. There is even a chance of it dropping into the 70s for a day, maybe even Friday.
But, we better enjoy it because the hottest time of the year often comes a bit later that this.
Anyway, I guess my forecast is under the microscope every day! I can take the pressure.
Posted by: Suzanne at July 19, 2006 11:41 AM
Gary, in the other blog thread you said it didn't matter much as to whether KCI or downtown is the record recording place (lack of technical word there haha) But I was thinking that we consider KCI the record place when it came to how long between days above 100, yet I think alot of the areas out KC saw temps in the 100's the last few summers, yet KCI didn't... Then it really didn't reflect correctly.. Same with the rain situation. KCI is down still I believe 9 inches of rain, but the same could not be said of 90% of the city? what do you think.
It only touched 100 downtown last year, so I think KCI, which was 99 on those days is still valid. And, usually one spot won't always get missed by the rain. KCI has been consistantly missing it, so the 9 inches below average is representable of the below average rainfall we have had, but it is a bit extreme.
Posted by: Dave C. at July 19, 2006 12:17 PM
Gary, we have some work to do to hit our guesses for the highest temp. Seems it came a bit early. I did not pick up the strength of the High in the long term forecast models when I made my prediction. I think I hear my grass collectively scream last night to come inside! [whats left of the living grass that is].
Any signs of the GRC fading away?
My grass is crying too. The GRC is fading and I am not talking about it right now as it is very tough to figure out if it is gone. We are of the oppinion that it is dying right now. It was obviously the same pattern just a few days ago, but something is happening and I think it is about to fall apart. Once it falls apart it is GONE forever and we can celebrate. Give me another few days.
Posted by: Scott at July 19, 2006 2:23 PM
I have 2 identical thermometers which, when placed side by side, read within 0.1 degree of each other. However, today I hung one on a fence in the sun, and left the other under the eaves of the house in a breezeway where the sun can not reach at any time. At 3:00 pm, one read 104.9 degrees, the other read 96.4 degrees. Which one more accurately reflects how hot it was at my house today? I maintain that the one in the sun is more accurate, but a friend maintains that the sun has heated the plastic housing of the instrument, causing it to read higher than the air temperature. I don't buy that theory as I doubt plastic can get hotter than the surrounding temperature, but I sure could be wrong! Where are your "professional" temperature readings taken?
One of the thermometers likely isn't very accurate, the one reading low, because it was likely 103 or 104 at your house around 3 PM. The official temperature is taken 5 feet off the ground and in the shade in a weather protected box. It can be 10 degrees warmer in the sun.
Posted by: Betty at July 19, 2006 3:28 PM
Hi! Weather Team, I hope your keeping cool. I'm sure glad to hear about the break in the heat coming soon. I know everyone is waiting. The temperature this high gets dangerous really quick. I can't wait for the 80's that sounds cold right now. Keep up the excellent forecasting. Thanks for sharing the pictures of Windy's haircut. Lisa PS: Don't forget the pets during the heat
Thanks for the reminder, and we are looking forward to the 20 degree drop in temperatures.
Posted by: Lisa at July 19, 2006 3:43 PM
At about 3:30p.m. the heat index in St. Joe hit 117 degrees! OUCH!
Posted by: Nick Rau at July 19, 2006 3:55 PM
Wow!!! It is a hot one!! It is 4:56 and 105 degree's in Pleasanton Kansas. I am sure the temp has topped out for the day!! Is gonna get hotter tomorrow?? Really?? Monica
I talked about your 105 degrees in Pleasanton on the 5 PM news. A very hot day!
Posted by: Monica at July 19, 2006 4:57 PM
In august, What the weather outlook going to look like? Are we still going to have a heat wave in august or some rains possible in august? Jason
The weather pattern is about to go through a massive transition. Not that we will feel major affects here, we just don't know yet. The next three months are the most unreliable months to forecast long range, based on my theory, and also through other long range statistics. Give me a week or so and lets look at it again.
Posted by: Jason at July 19, 2006 8:06 PM
We'll be in St. Louis this weekend. What does the weather look like for us? Will we get rained on the whole time?
Windows were just blown out of Busch Stadium by a thunderstorm. It will be cooler everywhere this weekend.
Posted by: Marlina at July 19, 2006 9:32 PM
Hey you guys:
Up in Minn. we had low 80's the last three days and some rain and storms. Hang in there, the cooler breezes are on the way. The other morning was 59 degrees that is a little too cool. Not complaining.
I try to enlarge the maps but nothing happens, could you help me out?
Send it our way.
Posted by: Rod at July 19, 2006 9:52 PM