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Hot Enough For You?
I actually hate that statement above... as if someone would say "No... I'd like it a little hotter, please!"... right?! ;)
Anyway... the entire viewing area is under a HEAT ADVISORY for the rest of today and for Monday, too!
Heat index values this afternoon are running between 103 and 108 degrees... with some isolated spots even higher. As of this blogging... the heat index in Lawrence is 115 ... and in St. Joseph it is 111 .
We keep talking about the "heat index"... and just in case you didn't know... the heat index is the combination of heat and humidity. Sometimes you might hear it called the "real feel" temperature... because it is what it really feels like ouside. Here is the NWS heat index chart... find the current temp, and the current relative humidity... and you can determine the current heat index:
Click to enlarge
Our dew points have been into the 70s this afternoon... and anytime they get above 65 or so... it REALLY feels humid outside! Bleh!
Here is a great question from one of our regular bloggers, Brian:
Hi Jamie:
I have a question. The Dew Point is VERY HIGH... With the Dew Point at 74, why is there no rain in the forecast? Lastly, it has been a record year for warm tempeatures for 2006. Does this have anything to do with Gary's weather pattern theory?
The reason we don't have showers or thunderstorms today is because there is basically High pressure at every level of the atmosphere! Let's examine it. First, the 500mb level... we have been talking about this one for awhile:
Click to enlarge
And on down to the 700mb level... still... a ridge in place:
Click to enlarge
Also found on the 700mb map is rising/sinking motion. You can see there is quite a bit of sinking over us:
You know the three ingredients we need for thunderstorms:
1) Moisture
2) Instability
3) LIFT!!
And we are obviously lacking in #3 today! Anyway... we go on to the 850mb level... still a ridge:
Click to enlarge
And even at the surface... we are under the influence of high pressure:
Click to enlarge
There aren't any areas of convergence around us... so things have been quiet! Now... late Monday... there will be a convergence zone dropping into Northern Missouri. A cold front will move in, and it will bring a chance of a few thunderstorms to the Northeast of us. We should stay dry here... and the heat will continue. We are still thinking 100s will be possible Monday through Thursday!
And to answer the last part of Brian's question... Gary's Weather Pattern Theory definitely helps to ILLUSTRATE what is going on. The whole CONCEPT of his theory is that the cycle will REPEAT itself! So if you have an extremely warm month, it will happen again and again! It makes total sense to us that this is a record warm year!!
I hope that helps to answer your questions! Gary will have more this week!
Now for a few of your entries to our HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR CONTEST!! Here are some upcoming guesses for this week:
Donna Mason July 17th at 2:47pm
Carrie Heinen.... July 18th, 1:57 pm
Ryan Young.... July 18 at 3:09pm
Kenzie Prince.... July 18, 2006 2:54 p.m.
Todd Maddox.... July 20th at 4:04pm
Missy Moran.... July 20th 2:32pm
You're all still in the running!!!!!!! :) TODAY was the hottest day for KCI so far. We hit 99 degrees... and just look at all that triple-digit heat to our West:
Yesterday, Pierre, SD hit 117!!! Today was another hot one at 110! Anyway, good luck to all that remain in the contest!
Jamie
Posted by at July 16, 2006 3:36 PM
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In Lenexa I recorded a high of 100. Add to that a dew point of 77, we had a heat index of 120!! That's just a little to hot.
Saw this from the NWS today "IF CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY...AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA." Really can't wait for it to end.
David
DAVID:
WOW! That is HOT! You can only imagine what it felt like in the sun on top of that! I am also ready for the end... but it's not till the end of the week, unfortunately!
Jamie
Posted by: David at July 16, 2006 4:46 PM
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How LONG BEFORE IT IS WINTER AGAIN?????
MATT:
I hear ya! I am definitely NOT a fan of heat and humidity!!
Jamie
Posted by: matt at July 16, 2006 5:13 PM
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Jamie - Just read that viewer's rant about global warming being a figment of the imagination. I suppose the it being the warmest half year in history, and 3.4 degrees F above average is just blarney as well. I also suppose that Iraq isn't a mess, and that we don't have inflation, and the 3-4 dollar a gallon gas we will soon see will be a mirage. GET REAL people, global warming has been proven scientifically, and you can stick your head in the sand, but it is happening and intensifying. Remember the killer heat-wave in Europe last year? Well, now it's our turn.
Dog
DOG:
You guys can fight it out... I don't want to get involved. :) This is a fun place to learn, discuss ideas, etc... but like I said, I am not getting into the GW debate, as this topic frequently gets HEATED! (no pun intended)
Jamie
Posted by: StormDog at July 16, 2006 5:39 PM
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Jamie,
When was the last time we experienced an actual heat wave, before this one? I know you said earlier it hasn't hit 100 in KC for like 1,000 days, but was that an actual heat wave or just an isolated day?
MARLINA:
Actually, we technically saw a "heat wave" last summer, albeit a small one. Here were the daily temps:
JULY 21st:
KCI: 95
Downtown: 97
JULY 22nd:
KCI: 98
Downtown: 100
JULY 23rd:
KCI: 99
Downtown: 100
JULY 24th:
KCI: 96
Downtown: 97
Remember, a heat wave is "three consecutive days with temperatures near 100 degrees."
It has been over a thousand days that KCI reached 100 degrees, though... today we stopped RIGHT at 99! The last 100 was back in August 2003. And THAT was a REAL heatwave!! From August 16th through the 21st... we were in the lower-to-mid 100s! Then there were 2 days in the mid-upper 90s... and then BACK into the lower-to-mid 100s for 3 more days! Eeek!
Jamie
Posted by: Marlina at July 16, 2006 6:10 PM
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Jamie,
I was on the weather channel's website checking out there 10 day forecast and they said that starting Friday we would be dropping back down into the mid to low 90's. What do you guys think? Is it too far out to tell? Also I was wondering if you guys see us having a another heat wave like this again any time soon?
Thanks, Megan
MEGAN:
There is a front that will be dropping in Friday/Saturday. Right now, I have Friday in the 90s and Saturday in the upper 80s. But then back into the 90s for Sunday. Another heat wave is not showing up yet... but it is summer... so give it time...
Jamie
Posted by: megan at July 16, 2006 6:36 PM
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Is there an outside chance we could get some rain around Monday night. What about later in the week???
KINLEY:
I think the rain will stay NE of us Monday night... but there is a better chance Friday into Saturday. It, however, does not look widespread.
Jamie
Posted by: kinley at July 16, 2006 6:55 PM
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Good evening Jamie :)
I was wondering and you may have already answered this, but what has been the longest stretch of 100 degrees days here in KC? This weeks forcast is one that I wish you all weren't so accurate :) I don't mind warm weather, I just don't like HOT weather and no offense to those who do :) Have a good night!
HI, DONNA!
I looked back through 2001, and I saw 6 days in August of 2003 that were in the 100s. Then there was a 2 day break... and then 3 MORE days of 100s. I am not sure about any stretch before that... it might be a good research project for later this week! I did notice that 1934 and 1936 both hold a lot of consecutive hottest date records (in the 100s) for the month of August!
Jamie
Posted by: Donna at July 16, 2006 7:40 PM
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Good evening-
About global warming, not saying it isn't happening. I'm saying you cannot prove it is "man's" fault. Simply because we have not been able to study it for a long enough period of time. This may be just a cycle we go through.That's all I'm saying.
PS-Good to hear from you Dog. I like you already.
Later
Brandon
Posted by: Brandon at July 16, 2006 8:41 PM
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Hi Jamie et al:
Sorry I got heated, though I guess I had to vent on a few topics - Global Warming is something apparently I am somewhat passionate about. I hope Brandon is right and it isn't happening, but time will tell. I am just glad I'm old enough not to be on the planet if the doomsday GW scenario plays out. I'm coming back as a dog, on another planet!!!
I walked a dinner tonight (2000) at work, and it was awful, not so much the heat, but the humidity makes it hard to breathe. I do think what Jamie said, it is summer (about another hot spell) is right on. It seems to me usually August is the worst of it. Hopefully something will occur to change it, but somehow...there I go doubting again, Jamie!!! What is remarkable is the breadth of this upper high and the heat enveloping most of the county - I haven't really seen that before in my 50 years.
Dog
DOG:
I expected no less from our resident doubter! :) But, yes, the ridge is very expansive and impressive! And I do agree... the humidity is the WORST!!!!!!
Jamie
Posted by: StormDog at July 16, 2006 9:13 PM
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Jamie - Here is a web address from the NWS Norman: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php
You might wish to post this in an updated blog - look at the temps in the west and in NE.
Dog
DOG:
Thanks, I'll add it in!
Jamie
Posted by: StormDog at July 16, 2006 9:17 PM
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Hey Jamie, are we gonna get placed in an excessive heat warning? I noticed that St. Louis is right now and their dewpoints are close to 10 degree's lower than us...??! makes no sense..
Do you think we'll end up ever seeing a heat wave like that of the 80's?
DAVE:
I think there is potential for an excessive heat warning as the week goes on. Here is the difference between the two:
Heat Advisory - Heat Index of 105 degrees will be reached for at least 3 hours.
Excessive Heat Warning - Heat Index of 105 degrees will be reached for 3 consecutive days , or if the Heat Index is expected to reach 115 degrees.
I notice St. Louis has the Metro counties in that warning... I would guess they are thinking "urban heat island effect"... daytime highs can be higher, and nighttime temps don't get as cool.
As for the heat wave of 1980... when more than 1000 people died... Since then, there has been considerable campaigning to teach people how to prevent heat related illness. So with education, we can only hope the toll wouldn't be as high. However, heat related illnesses are already increasing across the area with this current heat wave. It is especially important to check on the elderly... if you have older family members, friends or neighbors... try to look out for them!
Jamie
Posted by: Dave C. at July 16, 2006 9:39 PM
***************
Wx Team,
I was wondering if this heat will have correlation for this up coming winter?
Thanks,
Tim
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Tim,
I believe that what is going on now has absoulutely nothing to do with what may happen next winter. A brand new unique weather pattern will set up between October 10th and November 10th.
Gary
Posted by: Tim at July 17, 2006 3:17 AM
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