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Hot Hot Heat
Well we made it to 100 today... and we were only FIVE degrees shy of our record high for this date (105 set back in 1947). An EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING has been issued from now through Tuesday night. We should be into the 100s for these next few days... and our heat index values will range from 105 to 110 across the area. There won't be much relief at night, either... with lows right around 80 degrees. Here is the map, valid through Tuesday 10pm:
The upper level ridge will be right over us on Sunday... and then it should shift to our east for Monday and Tuesday. We are still expecting hot temperatures... but we will be in southwest flow aloft, so we will have to watch for any cloud cover that develops during the afternoon hours. That would play a role in keeping temps down a few degrees. Here is the 500mb flow for Monday... note the SW flow:
Click to enlarge
Regardless, our dew points are high so it will be very hot and humid. We should stay dry, though, as there is a pretty good cap in place. As we go into the middle part of the week, a front will approach us, and the models are advertising a few upper waves to ride our way. So the chance of thunderstorms starts Wednesday and sticks around through Friday. This will also mean an end to the heat wave, with highs dropping into the 80s.
But until then... be careful... and watch out for others.
Posted by at July 29, 2006 4:25 PM
Hi - 100F ain't bad IF there isn't humidity - unfortunately, in "Misery", excuse me, Missouri :) this isn't the case. The GFS from 144 hours on re-establishes a massive and broad, though not amplified ridge, much like the heatwaves so far this year. Therefore, the 2nd thru at least the 3rd week in August should see us re-visiting the century mark, IF the GFS is correct. I know the pattern has gone bye-bye, but the GFSs' broad ridge sure looks familiar. Ah well - I will be glad to get rid of August.
If the GFS is right I am still in the running for the hottest day of the year contest! :)
Posted by: StormDog at July 29, 2006 6:30 PM
I was at Worlds of Fun today, man it was roasting, and I am red as a beet, but it was still fun! By the way it was so hot they were giving out free water.
Oceans of Fun would probably be the park of choice! ;) That is great, though, that they were giving out water... very important!!
Posted by: Nick Rau at July 29, 2006 7:31 PM
just need 105 tomorrow. I don't think the GFS will hold into the next few weeks...I think we are looking at high 90s at best.
Posted by: Scott at July 29, 2006 10:29 PM
I didn't make it today. Good luck to the rest of the partipants in the contest.
The winner could be tomorrow, Tuesday or Wednesday, depending on clouds. I will post some of those in the running.
Posted by: Scott at July 30, 2006 3:31 PM