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Pattern Change?
Good evening everyone,
The wind shift line, or very weak cold front, has moved south of Kansas City this evening. Temperatures were near 100 on the north side of Kansas City and 103 down south. This front will stall tonight south of us and then get reinforced later tonight. We seem to be near the zone where thunderstorms should form. Right now we are capped, but the cap falls apart by early Friday and there is an upper level storm that will enhance the area of rain. If you get into significant rain Friday then temperatures will very likely be in the 60s. If it doesn't rain it could still be in the lower to middle 80s Friday. So, this is not an easy forecast, but if you have been reading the blog or watching us on NBC ACTION NEWS, then you know that we have been very consistent.
Below is the 500 mb flow at 1 PM Friday showing the disturbance over northeastern Kansas. And, the preciptiation forecast for the morning. It should rain, and possibly a lot, but it is a bit on the strange side. My feeling is that we will have thunderstorms and an area of rain close by around sunrise Friday, then with the disturbance coming near by rain could continue to be generated during the day.
Click to enlarge (500 flow showing disturbance well)
Click to enlarge (Surface valid at 1 PM)
Now, to the pattern change. We are gaining confidence that the entire weather pattern may be dying right now. The last few model runs have been all over the place on solutions. The European model has been having strange runs. The GFS has been trending into a brand new weather pattern. I am not completely convinced yet, but we may be celebrating by next week as this pattern has just been the most frustrating one I have experienced. Suddenly the latest GFS run has chances for rain and a slower return of heat later next week, but it could be wrong. As, I said, it has been trending and changing so let's see how we feel next week.
Have a great evening, and think positively for rain.
Gary
Posted by at July 20, 2006 5:44 PM
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Do you anticipate any severe weather anywhere in MO tonight?
KATIE:
No severe weather here in our area... but there is a slight chance in Southeast MO.
Jamie
Posted by: Katie at July 21, 2006 7:51 AM
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Gary,
I received just over 0.60 inches of rain this morning. It was very windy also. However, I am not complaining as it feels so much better out there than the past week. We are moving next weekend, what do you think it will be like next weekend?
MARK:
Thank you for your rainfall report! It is going to be MUCH cooler today... with many places staying in the 60s and 70s. It is really too soon to say what will happen next weekend. Check back next week!
Jamie
Posted by: Mark at July 21, 2006 9:17 AM
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Gary, this is really getting frustrating. When Kansas City received the heavy rainfall a couple weeks ago, we got just over a half inch. Today, the same thing. We had wind, lightning and thunder, but just .10 in the rain gauge. PLEASE tell me there is still hope for some rain down here in Kingsville, our grass is begging for it, not to mention the trees we planted this spring.
KIMBERLEY:
There is still the chance of rain as we go through the day and our upper level wave moves through. It will be scattered and it does not look that heavy. But if you get under any particular thunderstorm, you could see a better downpour!
Jamie
Posted by: Kimberley at July 21, 2006 10:41 AM
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Hi Jamie,
I don't see much redevelopment on the radar, are we done for the day or is the line off to the west anticipated to grow stronger?
Thanks and have a great day,
Todd
TODD:
It looks like it will just be showers for the Metro... but we have to wait for the wave to swing through before the chance completely shuts off for the day.
Jamie
Posted by: Todd at July 21, 2006 10:57 AM
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I guess this is it for the day- we have .25 in the rain guage. Do you still see a change in the pattern for this upcoming week? We still need some more rain very soon!
Thanks...
KINLEY:
Thanks for the update... this does look like it is it for the day!! Yes, there is still a change showing up. Even another chance of rain mid-week!
Jamie
Posted by: kinley at July 21, 2006 1:33 PM
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I love the rain..thank goodness. I just need for the rain to stop on the 30th, and jump up to 106 for the day..then it can cool down again.
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Scott,
Good luck on the 30th!
Gary
Posted by: Scott at July 21, 2006 2:51 PM
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Rain midweek would be great. We got a small shot this morning and nothing since. I'm not complaining mind you--the heat has broken and at least the heat stress on everything will be less, but we are getting desperate for the rain southeast of the metro.
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Mike,
Maybe it will rain next week before we have another heat wave.
Gary
Posted by: Mike from Warrensburg at July 21, 2006 3:22 PM
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Hi all - WOW, am I excited or WHAT? My rain-gauge in Blue Springs gave us a WHOPPING .22 INCHES!!! THE DROUGHT IS OVER!!! NOT...!!! I can hardly wait for August.
Dog
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Stormy Doggy,
Come on. It rained at the tail end of a heat wave. And, you had a lot of rain right before the heat wave. You experienced a "heat wave sandwich". I guess you needed a little dressing. It may come next week as we do have some chances coming up.
Gary
Posted by: StormDog at July 21, 2006 5:01 PM
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Hi,
I was wondering if you would please explain the difference between a hurricane & a typhoon.
Thanks.
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Phyllis,
There is no difference. A typhoon is a hurricane. They just happen to call hurricanes typhoons in the western Pacific Ocean.
Gary
Posted by: Phyllis at July 21, 2006 8:54 PM
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I noticed something strangebaout the storm on Friday morning. At first I didn't think much of it but then I heard someone else talk about it and it made me think if there was soemthig to it.
The wind on Friday morning right before the storm hit seemed to be limited only to the treetops. Only the very highest trees were whipping around -- and they were whipping around a lot. Yet - I was able to sit on my porch and read the paper without them barely being rustled. The porch was not potected from the wind and a a matter of fact even on fairly calm days the papers tend to blow all over.
Was there some particulr meteorological reason this wind acted abnormally?
HAMONDS:
Thunderstorms can produce erratic wind patterns locally. The winds were certainly felt on the ground in other parts of the Metro. Gary showed video of the waves whipping up on a pond, and he had some patio furniture tossed around on his porch in OP. Perhaps the strongest winds just never made it to the ground in your location!
Jamie
Posted by: hamons at July 22, 2006 11:08 AM
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