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You're definitely onto something as the NWS Storm Prediction center has just identified a large Moderate Severe Risk area just north of us. We'll see if we get some action tonight again to help keep all of the trees and grass watered before the heat arrives. As for the caller that complained about your forecast, you can recommend for him to buy a TIVO and set it up to record the 6pm and 10pm each night. That's what I do so that I can watch the forecast if I miss it during this busy summer or rewind something of interest. It's worked out great for me and I highly recommend it. Keep up the good work! We love your enthusiasm and the way that you not only provide the forecast, but explain it in detail and always go with what you believe in. It’s obvious that you live and breathe this stuff and that is what sets you apart from the rest.

Ryan,

Thank you so much! I didn't know about the moderate risk, I will go analyze this now.

Gary

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Gary-

Just noticed that storms were begining to fire right now in Nebraska, along with a new SPC Watch just out. Does this change your thoughts on anything?
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Bryan,

No change. Everything is on track. The line may move through faster, but we will see how it sets up.

Gary

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I don't mind heat waves as long as they are relatively short, no more than a work week. Once they get beyond 5-6 days, they really start to wear people down psychologically and physically. I hope you're right and that this one breaks down within 7.

By the way, I got 1.62 inches the other night here in Lawrence. We are moving to a new house soon that will be further way from Bob's.
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John,

The heat wave is somewhat interesting to forecast, but I am with you on it lasting less than a week. I hope this one does.

Gary

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Well good to hear that everything is still going as planned so far. I noticed the NWS in KC is now commenting on the potential MCS tonight, and is working on raising the threat of precip up a little higher. Im just glad to know that this pattern is about to finally leave us, Im ready for some excitement!
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Bryan,

We are now under a watch!

Gary

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Gary,

How far west do you think these storms will develope. My concern is the SN/OS county line in KS (south of Topeka). I was under the impression, from local forecaster, these things may go up more like NW/NC KS then trek east then se. Looking at the models now though it seems they may develop more so in EC NE then move south. Not concerned how it gets here really just that it does.

BTW, this is a very good site and enjoy your analysis.

Thanks - Brad
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Brad,

It is developing now, and I don't have a feel for its evolution at this moment. Will you get hit? I should know within two hours.

Gary

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Gary,

I live in Fort Collins on Colorado Front Range. I found your site while searching on the Internet and read with great interest your ideas about weather patterns and how they seem to set up around Oct/Nov and then cycle for a year or so. I am not a professional weather guy but do watch the weather with keen interest. I do think you are on to something as this year in particular we have been stuck in a "lousy" pattern (lousy = hot, dry, windy). Just this last week-end our area finally got some rain but now we are (again) under the influence of high pressure and hot temps.

There seems to be no end to this pattern but reading your ideas does provide some hope. If indeed the current pattern starts falling apart I will be one of the first to cheer.

BTW, if you are frustrated with the lack of rain in your area this year put this in perspective: in northern Colorado we have still yet to crack 3.5" for the YEAR!
I would think the weather patterns that will begin bringing eastern Colorado cooler and wetter weather will do the same for you all ;>). The question is, will these patterns ever come back and stick around for more than a day or two?

All the best, and enjoy your blog.

Doug
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Doug,

It happens every year. And, the pattern dies out around July 20th to early August, every year as well. We will never see this pattern again and for our region this is good.

Let's hope next year is an exciting one. It just has to be.

I am glad you are enjoying the blog.

Gary

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Good Afternoon, Jamie & Gary

Well..things are starting to shape up, We got our SPC moderate risk established..discussion on some thunderstorm supercells having formation ability and a large area of moderate risk of severe weather setting up from Iowa to Oklahoma. Gary, do you feel that since this event will be coming through us after intially exploding over Neb-Iowa ( right now as of 3pm there is a huge cell that covers two counties in Columbus, Nebraska and building east towards central Iowa and it is definetly starting to light up north of us ) will it be a more linear squall line event?? any feelings with this still existing pattern that it could do the KC split?? this is almost certainly a " down the Mo " complex except....this year..

Robert
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Robert,

I always begin to worry when there are only a few hours left. By early tomorrow morning we won't have another chance of rain for a long time.

Gary

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After being out in heat for an extended amount of time yesterday I began to wonder when will it end? This summer it seems to be quite a bit more humid than any other I can remember. Is there any end in sight?

Thanks, Tim
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Tim,

This is actually the lowest amount of humidity we have ever had in the early part of summer..........Until this week. Now it is humid and it is not abnormal at all.

Gary

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What is the chance of severe weather in the area? I believe the SPC is thinking about a weather watch.
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We are in a watch now!

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Alright Gary saw we are under a thunderstorm watch til midnight when do u think the storms will arrive in kansas city tonight and is this going to be a prolific rain event.
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Jeremy,

It is too early to tell. Watch the 5 and 6 PM newscasts and we will be analyzing this.

Gary

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Gary, during this forcasts this morning I heard something about the potential for a lot of cloud to ground lightning... is this still shaping up? I live right at 95th and Holmes Rd. and the storm that was just south of us on Tuesday night put on one heck of a light show!

As for rainfall we recieved about 1.6 inches.. can't wait to get home from work and make sure the rain gauge is empty and ready!

Great Job...

SS

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SS,

Thanks! If the thunderstorms get here there will be a lot of lightning. Right now they are turning our way.

Gary

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Gary - Time will tell, but I will say, the stifling heat is us, at least for a while. Hope it doesn't last thru August, but you never know. I think you said the pattern pre-existing starts to leave us in late July-early August. The BIG question is, will the next pattern be as dry (a good proof or not of global warming)or wet? I'd say it's 50-50 at best.

I've still got my birds - Cardinals, House Finches, and Chickadees to watch, and of course, the antics of our dogs, Parker and Sheba, so one can't place too much on weather as a hobby - it is too disappointing much of the time.

Dog
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Dog,

Global warming can mean extreme drought or extreme flood, so the next pattern will not tell us if we are having Global Warming, but it could be related. We just don't know.

The thunderstorms are turning our way.

Gary