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Heat and changing pattern
Click to enlarge (500 mb flow Sunday, July 30th)
The map above clearly shows that the United States weather pattern is being dominated by a big anticyclone. This upper high developed over the northern plains two weeks ago shifted to the west and now is moving back out into the plains. It should then weaken moving to the southeast U.S. and then reform in the desert southwest eventually. Hot air feeds these "opposite of storm" sytems and sometimes the anticyclone holds into September before shifting well south into Mexico as fall approaches. So, even though the weather pattern has changed we still may have to deal with this system for a while. Also notice all of the wild flow through Canada. Everything is rapidly in transition and changing.
Click to enlarge (850 temps Monday)
This map (above) shows the 850 mb temperatures. The 850 mb level is about 5,000 feet up, so in Denver it would be the surface. This is why you often see the heat building at this level over the Rockies and high plains. This level being the surface out there obviously warms up fast. This heat can then be moved downslope into the plains and this year the northern plains has been the targeted area for the biggest heat. On this map notice the hottest air, by Monday, spreading north of Kansas City through the Great Lakes. This hottest air could be forced south over us as the cold front approaches and this could mean the hottest day would be Tuesday or Wednesday if the cold front slows down. We will be hearing about the heat wave big time next week. It should rapidly fall apart just as it becomes a major story as the pattern continues to majorly change. See below.
Click to enlarge (500 mb flow one week from now valid Thursday night)
This map shows the 500 mb flow forecast for next Thursday night. This is a completely new weather pattern in chaotic transition, so it probably won't quite look like this next Thursday. A cold front will drag into our area on Wednesday and then we have the potential for some heavy thunderstorms and a break in the heat wave. We now have to be patient to see how it sets up. Since it is a differnt pattern, as our old pattern just fell apart, something very different should happen with the precipation distribution. So, there is hope for less frustration than we have been used to.
Gary
Posted by at July 28, 2006 10:32 AM
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Thought and a question.
Thought - I have been watching this big bad cold front modeled for the last few days. This also impacts the tropics, as it is going to erode the Bermuda High and send it packing eastward.
Question - During the summer months between GRCs, does this time make it more difficult for you all to forecast, since you don't have a trend to expect?
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Scott,
First of all the cold front is still a summer cold front so it won't have the kind of impact you are talking about.
Secondly, it may be easier to forecast as the weather may do what it is suppose to do. I am not sure what the pattern will be three weeks of two months from now as I usually know, but at this time of the year we really go a few days at a time more than any other time of the year. When the cold front approaches it will be interesting and also proof of the new pattern as something different will happen.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at July 28, 2006 10:52 AM
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Gary,
I see that an excessive heat watch has been issued for MO counties to our east. What is the NWS criteria for issuing the watch and do you expect our viewing area to be issued a watch as well?
Stay cool...
Janine
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Janine,
It is really inconsistent with the NWS Excessive Heat Watch for eastern Missouri and nothing here. It will likely be hotter from here westward and we should be in a watch as well. All that really matters is that it will be very hot.
Gary
Posted by: Janine at July 28, 2006 10:57 AM
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What does the first full week of August look like,Gary?I will be going to the lake of the ozarks. I hope it is like this weekend very hot and dry.
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Brad,
It will start out hot, but a cold front should drop the temperatures by mid next week for a few days.
Gary
Posted by: brad thompson at July 28, 2006 12:21 PM
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Hi Gary,
can we anticipate another heat wave this year after the one next week breaks down?
Kind regards
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Steve,
Hopefully not. Right now it isn't showing up, but it is still going to be early August. We have about 30 to 40 more days to worry about it.
Gary
Posted by: Steve Ambro at July 28, 2006 1:29 PM
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Curiousity about summer vs other season cold fronts...is your point above to the extent the temp difference/gradient is not as severe as what I may have indicated to affect the other features? Just want to make sure I learn something here. I hadn't considered that in my above statment.
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Scott,
Exactly. This is a front without much cold air support from Canada. It is a wind shift line with a cooler air mass behind it just like any other season cold front. But, it just doesn't have that cold air support that may appear in a cold front within a few weeks. Sometimes a true fall cold front gets here later in August, and meteorologists around the nation come up with ridiculous statements of an early freeze is likely because of that early cold front. But, it would just be an early cold front as you now know it isn't supported by a cycling pattern as it won't be even close to setting up in August or September. It would be unlrelated to anything coming in down the long road.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at July 28, 2006 6:01 PM
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Changing pattern and heat
Storm in a Bottle
Why not capture one on these "opposite of storm systems" in a bottle & use it whenever you need it. Detailed computer modeling of the storm & others like it could be used with lasers to capture the essence of the storm exactly... storm in a bottle, or a computer as it were. Cold lasers would siphon off the energy & store it in the bottle model. You would store the energy in one of those batteries that holds a charge for ever. Well, ok, maybe you’d need more than one battery but standard lasers would then deliver the energy when needed to reproduce the storm. Seems like you might be able to lessen a storm with an opposite of storm or create a storm to alleviate a drought, like the one ravaging our fair states. Seems like ya outta be able ta build a storm over the Gulf & steer it over the place that needs the rain using ... you guessed it, lasers with computers. I saw Meredith Haynes lasso a steer on KC live the other day... maybe you could get her to saddle up those storms & ride 'em over the bread basket whenever the crops are in danger. Turn her into a laser powered, computer generated modern day Mae West.
What say you?
Copyright, William Richardson, Banjack Wagon Republic
WILLIAM:
My goodness! You have all these ideas for lasers! Interesting thoughts, my friend.
Jamie
Posted by: William at July 29, 2006 7:22 AM
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