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Another heat wave?
Click to enlarge (500 mb Forecast for Thursday)
Click to enlarge (500 mb Forecast for Sunday)
Good morning everyone. I am concerned that a stronger heat wave could be building and moving in this weekend. Remember, this is the hottest time of the year climatologically, which means our average highs peak out during the next two weeks and then start going down. The anticyclone that created our heat wave a week ago shifted to the west and now is poised to shift back to the east into our region by Sunday. This is displayed above in the second map showing the upper high bodily coming over Kansas. When these anticyclones start creating tremendous heat we must watch even more closely. It will depend on many factors, but if that thing comes right over us it should be hotter than the last heat wave and given the time of year it will be tough to break.
At the same time that these developments are occuring the entire weather pattern may be changing. I keep waiting for this to happen, and we don't think it has happened yet but it should very soon. Please, change and fast! As the pattern changes the anticyclone could shift to the east, or even back to the west or sag southward. I just hope it doesn't decide to sit here for a while. It has already had a life of its own producing 120 degrees in South Dakota, 119 in Los Angeles county in my home town of Woodland Hills in the west valley, and now it produced the warmest morning low in Tuscon recorded history with their low of 89 degrees yesterday. And, Eugene Oregon just set their all time warmest low temperature ever with 74 degrees. So, this is wide spread. It isn't just a heat wave, but it is setting ALL TIME record highs in many places. Global Warming? Well, we will talk about it tonight on NBC ACTION NEWS at 10 PM.
Wednesday, a disturbance will be slowly moving through. There should be a lot of clouds and some thunderstorms around. It is rather warm aloft so we must overcome this to create an organized area of thunderstorms. This may very well happen and with so much warm air someone could get excessive rainfall. Right now I lean towards this happening in northern Missouri, but let's see how it sets up later today.
Posted by at July 25, 2006 7:08 AM
Gary..list some of the folks/dates for the upcoming 7 days to see who might hit the highest temp. It seems this wave will be the winning timeframe.
I might have been a few days early....we will see. Gary, you might have hit it directly.
Where was all the talk of global warming in 1980 with the record heat that year? How about global warming in 1950 with still the record of major hurricanes? I think its cycles, and we are still to early in our research to see the full cycle. Much like trying to define the upcoming GRC in the beginning of Sept for the following year.
We will make a list later this evening.
Any single heat wave can not possibly prove that we are having Global Warming or caused by Global Warming, but computer models show that we should have more and stronger heat waves as time goes on, and this seems to be happening. Now, just two summers ago we didn't even have a heat wave, but the trend is there.
I will address this tonight.
Posted by: Scott at July 25, 2006 9:01 AM
we are bracing for the heat wave, any idea on how long this one will last. We are hoping for a rainy fall season.
The weather pattern is showing the potential for a long heat wave this time, but this is something that will become clearer within a day or two. I will address the length of it and strength of it later.
Posted by: Steve Ambro at July 25, 2006 10:02 AM
Gary I will be unable to watch your Global Warming special. Since they took your station off in the Topeka area I miss your expertise. Do you really think it is Global Warming or other factors? Thanks, Michael Huffman Topeka
I think that it is Global Warming and the earth is warming up and there is very little doubt that the current warming is a result of human causes of greenhouse gases. There is a lot of debate on what could happen in the next 100 years and beyond, so this is where I am quite skeptical.
Posted by: michael huffman at July 25, 2006 12:01 PM
You know Gary, I love all sorts of freaky weather, but...heat waves are one weather event that gets old quickly. *sigh* That 100 degree weather just saps every ounce of energy out of you. Last week when you mention'd that it was getting squeezed back to west, I thought it was only time before it heads back this way.
Where does the "heat wave" get it's energy from? I know that cold fronts drag cold air from other parts, but where is all the warm air coming from?
The warm air comes from the continents themselves. The land masses must heat up during the day and when there are no more cold fronts then the heat just builds and the upper level ridge is then aloud to form as the warm air rises. But, there are always things going on that move the dome, or anticyclone back and forth. Hopefully the pattern change that I am expecting very soon will be a favorable one.
We are seeing rather strong evidence that the pattern is ending right now. So, let's see how this evolves, but a new pattern will mean COMPLETELY different things begin happening and fast. It is sometimes hard to notice at this time of year, then again, I think we will hopefully notice.
More on this later.
Posted by: Dave C. at July 25, 2006 12:11 PM
You're freaking me out with talk of an even stronger heat wave coming up! If the heat wave does build in, could we be looking at temperatures as high as they've been having in Calif. (119 degrees) or would they be more like our last heat wave, below 110? Also, what is the longest heat wave on record for our area?
There have been a few very long heat waves, and at this moment this one looks like another 4 to 5 day stretch. But, let's look more closely at it as it arrives.
Posted by: Marlina at July 25, 2006 1:53 PM
Why do we keep having this anticyclone in the first place that seems to keep hanging on and causing one miserable heat wave and dry spell after another? What we need is a low pressure trough to take the place of the high, and be equally persistent -- but I suppose that is a pipe dream from the past that's not going to happen again...
I keep reading on this blog that there WILL be a fundamental change in this lousy weather pattern, but am starting to lose faith that this will actually occur.
Last year the weather pattern died out around August 1st. So, just be patient.
The anticyclone has an average position near the 4 corners states. So, it isn't unusual, but a hot airmass has just been caught.
Posted by: Doug at July 25, 2006 2:05 PM
Looking at the 200mb GFS, it looks like a wicked heat wave with a High building right on us or just a bit south through Aug 6th..then it looks like the jet dips a bit and pushes the H back to the SW. Its gonna get HOT!
Yes, Scott, we agree. The pattern is a bit strange though. Maybe something unusual will happen.
Posted by: Scott at July 25, 2006 2:07 PM
I am looking forward to seeing your special tonight. I have always been very leery of GW and I still am, but I know you have increadible ability to analize the weather so I can't wait to see your insight! Two questions I have are, Will you talk about our stretch of "depressing" winters in terms of snow and on the issue of this next heat wave, I looked at a GFS model and it had the high right over us but it had less intense hights than the last time just wondered about your thoughts on that, again thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!
I am not really going into our winters, but it is something we are paying attention to. I have been very skeptical of Global Warming until somewhat recently. I still wonder about it but evidence is mounting.
Posted by: Nick Rau at July 25, 2006 2:58 PM
I thought I heard somewhere that the violent storms on the ocean cool down the water? Is that true? If so, is there any indication that last year's hurricane season cooled down the water temperatures at all?
The water temperatures are a bit cooler than last year when they were up to 89 degrees, so far this year they are at 86 or so across the Gulf of Mexico. But, the cooling you are talking about is very temporary.
Posted by: matt at July 25, 2006 3:03 PM
What is happening to our rain chances for Wednesday and Thursday? I noticed the chances have fallen drastically from 50% to 30%... I am wondering if I should water my yard today to get ready for the upcoming heat wave.
We are back up to 40%, so there is hope.
Posted by: Will at July 25, 2006 4:21 PM
Good afternoon Gary :)
I have heard you say "I'm not feeling that" or something to that effect, I was wondering with all the cool tools you have computers, radars, etc..how much do you rely on your "gut" feeling when forcasting? And how often does your feeling go against what your computer models may be saying? The whole weather team has bragging rights for how well you forcast and personally I appreciate the fact that you all do not have these pow-wow meetings on camera defending your forecasts to the viewers like I have seen on another channel. We are looking forward to your global warming segment tonight. Have a good evening :)
I rely on my gut instinct all of the time. This is the biggest reason we are the most accurate in Kansas City. We certainly use the models but we forecast the weather taking everything into consideration and then heavily weigh in what we think will happen.
Thank you for noticing.
Posted by: Donna at July 25, 2006 4:22 PM
Just watched your special on "Global Warming". While I agree that the mean earth temp may be rising. I have serious doubts that mankind has caused any of this.
1:You said, “The majority of scientist agree that co2 emissions are causing this"30 years ago most scientists agreed that we were heading into a new ice age (was in my grade school text book). (Glad we fixed that I hate the cold).
2: At one time most Scientist agreed that the world was flat also.
3: As for vehicle pollution new cars on average are more that 500% more efficient in tail pipe emissions than 30 years ago.
So Please let me know your thoughts. (In the mean time you can find my SUV towing my Boat to the lake every weekend both burning plenty of gas).
Have a great day Todd
Posted by: Todd at July 25, 2006 10:35 PM
I just wanted to congratulate you on your cameo appearance on the heat wave story on tonight's NBC National News at 5:30 pm!
Thank you so much. I just wish I could have seen it. I heard I was on for a few seconds.
Posted by: Betty at July 31, 2006 10:37 PM