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The pattern has changed and it is raining
Good afternoon everyone,
Well, we have talked about this strange upper low near our region for days. The computer models have not known what to do with it and now it is over Kansas. So, what does this upper level storm mean for us? Cloudy, cooler, and some rain. Today will only be in the 80s and there is the potential for rain today and thunderstorms tonight before the storm moves away and falls apart Friday.
The heat should then build in, but the weather pattern is changing. I think the change has already occurred. We can celebrate. The old pattern is likely gone forever. I will show some evidence of this change soon, but just look at the model forecasts for the next few days. Very different things are beginning to happen.
More on this later. Enjoy the cloudy day. I am not surprised at all, I just wish we would have gone for it last night. We talked about it, but then we were influenced by the dry models. We knew we were in an upper level cyclonic circulation today and in July this has to mean clouds and precipitation.
Posted by at July 27, 2006 11:55 AM
Ding Dong the witch is dead! Bring on some rain!
Posted by: Jon at July 27, 2006 1:29 PM
Gary you should always go with your gut instinct, because it is usually right on! We so need the rain, we are farmers in Waldron, Mo. and even if we are just getting sprinkles and cloudy its better than 106 degrees and windy, and burning our crops up. We only watch you, and trust you, I hope you stay here for a long while.
Thank you so much! Have a great weekend.
Posted by: Kelly Yulich at July 27, 2006 2:23 PM
SW Lawrence checking in and so far today (4 PM) we have had a full inch of that glorious wet stuff that falls from the heaven's...most all of which fell in the last hour.
Radar does seem to indicate that there is more on the way, which is AOK with me.
Although on the other hand when it gets hot over the next few days we are all going to be in one big sauna won't we.
That is a nice rain. It was spinning pretty good near you and I was wondering how much rain fell. Thanks.
Posted by: Bob from Lawrence at July 27, 2006 4:07 PM
Drats! Had a nice blog entry and my computer ate it! Hope this is not a repeat in case it did go through.
I guess I see how you might think the 106 may not happen. I see on the NAM a mid/upper low forming in the 60-66 hr window in the SW KS area. This may be enough to resist the ridging in this area and push it a bit further west. I think maybe for once, I will be happy that KCI has the reading as the further north, the better in this setup. [Though I still don't trust that pesky KCI...]
On a side note, I think I can see how the GRC died. None of the predominant features of the cycle can evolve in the current jet pattern. Additonally, these rogue vort maxes seem to be forming out of no where, which is not consistant with what I observed with the former GRC. I think we will need to pay attention to how these continue to persist in the current ridging to maybe see how the next GRC may set up. Obviously, you have lots of time to watch to see the setup in Octoberish. Now, if we could just drop the sheer of the subtropical jet in the tropics, we may have some fun down there as the water is hot enough to cook gumbo! Once we can get some of the energy out of the tropics into the polar regions, we will really see the new setup! [probably just Scott's opinion - the whole energy transfer, temp/pressure gradients establish jet stream trends etc.]
Yes, it is time to celebrate Scott. The pattern is gone. And, I understand your frustration with an eaten blog comment. I had written a great entry the other day and poof it was gone.
106 is still possible. But, the pattern is changing and it is now new? So, what does this mean?
I like your well thought out ideas.
Posted by: Scott at July 27, 2006 4:29 PM
Thank you for the comment on the thought out comments. I found years ago, haste in blogging results in coming off like an idiot. Idiots do not get much feedback!
That aside, let me clarify my above comment. In that the GRC is dead, we are in a flex time now. I concur with your opinion in the previous blog that the end of the GRC will normally correspond with the beginning of the hurricane season. In like, I believe the end of the hurricane season is what establishes the GRC. The time in the middle is the normally the time which the GRC and the tropics "talk" to each other. Much like a global teleconnection. In this "conversation", I belive it is the energy transfer from the tropics that transfers to the poles, and the amount and frequency that defines the next GRC. Now, with that being said..I also realize there are many other factors that contribute to the GRC formation. As many factors are related in the global weather patterns, I am of the belief that the time of energy transfer also sets the other factors in motion such as positions of persistent L and H pressure centers. I also believe this transfer has an impact on their strength. I believe this by the fact as the same theory of how this energy transfer creates the jet stream patterns by the pressure and temp gradients. As the jet pattern defines, it too will define the normal L and H pressure center locations. Based on the proximity of the H and L centers that are persistent, each will seek the equilibrium with the other as they together want to equal out. So, in summary, as the energy moves to the poles from the tropics, the jet stream, the location, the strength, and subsequently the GRC is formed from this energy transfer. Granted, this synopsis is a bit over simplified, and far from the only means of the GRC creation, but it is my opinion that this is the back half of the equation that completes the global cause and effect of the GRC. Also, this is a macro view of the totality. The part that is most curious is how the GRC remains consistent with the micro level such as the rogue vort maxes and other anomolies that spring up.
What I continue to research is to see how the AMO, and the ENSO cycles fit into this theory of mine in conjunction with yours. I know based on prior blog comments, you don't think there is an effect, and on a smaller scale, I agree. I do think there is an effect more on a long term trending. I think [and I am researching] that one could find analog patterns in similar years where you may actually find similar energy cycles defined by the ENSO/AMO cycles. If I can make this relationship, then I would want to see if I could look at your research as see if there were similar GRC effects in the following winter and spring. If this were consistant..wouldn't that be cool!
Anyway, this is a pretty lengthy blog, and there is much more that could be discussed within this, but didn't want to chew up too much of your blog or bore the rest of the bloggers!
A long comment, you might want to email me the next time you have such a long one like this.
It is amazing how the pattern has changed. It is almost hard to believe. But, everything is suddenly acting different. The first real test will be the cold front that arrives around Tuesday night or Wednesday. The thunderstorm pattern near this front should be quite different. The test is on.
Posted by: Scott at July 27, 2006 9:36 PM
Gary, taking the family to starlight tomorrow.. how is the humidity going to be tomorrow night? I dread a sticky night. :|
It will be quite humid, unfortunately, but it will be better than Saturday or Sunday night.
Posted by: Dave C. at July 27, 2006 10:29 PM