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Uh oh, the weekend forecast MAY be changing

Good evening,

First of all, we haven't received a comment from anyone in 8 hours. There may be a problem, or no one cares about us anymore. O.K., the comments seem to be coming in. I was just panicking........I think.

The latest data coming out tonight is strongly trending towards a further west digging upper low. Below is the NAM 48 hour 500 mb chart that just came out. The NGM model agrees and if this trend continues the entire weekend forecast is wrong. So, we will be making changes for the 10 PM newscast and then figure it out on Friday. It is somewhat exciting.

Click to enlarge (Notice the upper low laying way back to the west)

Gary

Posted by at 9:27 PM | Comments (9)

Ernesto strengthening and our weather

Good morning everyone,

Tropical Storm Ernesto may become a hurricane today. Ernesto is over the Gulf stream with higher water temperatures and it appears to be strengthening fast early today. Below you can almost see the eye developing.

Click to enlarge 7:50 AM this morning

Ernesto is going to produce a lot of rain in the east this weekend. For us we have a strange upper low forming that will combine with the eastern storm and form a strange blocked up weather pattern. It now appears the upper low near our region will stay north of Kansas City. This will limit our chance of rain and could bring us some great holiday weekend weather. Let's watch this closely and see what happens with today's computer model trends.

Click to enlarge (GFS 500 flow valid Saturday night)

Above, you can see the upper low is north of Kansas City. This would place us in the "dry slot" of the storm which coincides with tremendously sinking air and will allow us to have a nice weekend despite a storm being near by. If the upper low drops into Kansas it would likely become cloudy and quite cool with some rain. Right now it appears it will track across Iowa.

Have a great day. Let's track Ernesto and our own storm as it is a somewhat interesting day across the United States.

Gary

Posted by at 8:03 AM | Comments (1)

Labor Day weekend weather

Good morning everyone!

There continues to be significant differences on how the weekend storm will form. If it develops north of Kansas City and ends up northeast of us we may have one brief band of showers and thunderstorms scattered as they move through early Saturday and then a beautiful weekend. If it forms northwest of us and drops slowly into Kansas, then we would have more rain and unsettled weather for days. The latest model runs have been going with the drier further north and east solution. Below you can see the two extremes. And, both of these could still be very wrong. The first map shows the 500 mb flow from last nights computer model run and the second map shows the same flow from yesterday mornings GFS run. So, there is a big difference through the plains.

Click to enlarge (7 PM GFS model run valid Saturday evening)

Click to enlarge (7 AM Tuesday GFS run valid also on Saturday evening)

We will be looking at two more runs of the computer models before we update the forecast tonight and three more runs before the 10 PM newscast. To forecast the weather for this weekend you should pay close attention to how the computer models are trending, but at the same time you should be looking for errors the models are likely making. So, there is a big range of possibilities for this weekend's forecast. This is why we should be careful about making any conclusions this early. An upper low forming north and dropping south into the Mississippi River valley will bring us a pretty nice and cool holiday weekend with maybe a shower or two. If it digs harder into Kansas then we have a chance of heavier rain and a cloudier scenario for the weekend. There are other possible solutions as well.

The flow aloft is blocked up east of us and this blocked up pattern with Ernesto caught in the middle may allow for the further west solution. This is what I will be looking for today on the runs.

Have a great day. More later on.

Gary

Posted by at 7:04 AM | Comments (8)

Changing weather & remembering Katrina

Good morning everyone. First of all I would like to thank you for sending in the supporting comments over the loss of Windy. I was quite overwhelmed and touched by this. I have read every comment. Jeff and Jamie told me that I will be reading a lot of emails and there is mail stacked on my desk. I will go through each one. Thank you again so much for your support. I am doing well, and Breezy and Stormy are doing fantasatic too!

I only received 4.6 inches of rain over the weekend deluge. Did I say "only"? There were a few spots that had about 3 to 4 inches but most areas had 5 to 6 inches of rain with some spots getting over 8 inches. The ponds are filled up. The water levels have risen. The drought is over. You just can't say we are in a drought now with everything soaked so deeply.

We will need more rain within a week. The weather pattern is absolutely bazaar. Look at the 72 hour forecast from last nights GFS. This is valid at 7 PM Thursday.

Click to enlarge

You can see the GFS modeling "Ernesto" near the South Carolina/North Carolina border. An upper low is centered near Indiana with an upper high north of the upper low. And, a trough is swinging into the northern Rockies. This little High over low near the Great Lakes is blocking up the pattern and may force the Rockies trough to slow down and close off a new upper low northwest of Kansas City by the weekend. If it is going to rain here this weekend then this feature is the one we must watch. It is looking different with each model run. We will know a little more each day. I don't have a good feel on this storm yet.

It was one year ago when Hurricane Katrina blasted into the Gulf coast with the "worst case scenario" actually happening in New Orleans. I included a couple of pictures, below, of the satellite photo.

click to enlarge

Have a great day! I am back from a few days off.

Gary

Posted by at 6:22 AM | Comments (24)

Clouds & Cooler

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 74
LOW: 63

It was sort of nice today to NOT have to worry about heavy rainfall! We had clouds around for most of the day... and that kept it cooler than average around the area. Tonight, our slow-moving upper level Low is visible on satellite imagery:

Click to enlarge

That Low will slide southeast... and just pass Kansas City to our Northeast. Here it is on the NAM/WRF:

Click to enlarge

We expect Tuesday to be a lot like Monday weather-wise! We should see cloud cover for a good part of the day... maybe some light showers... and cooler temperatures. We have been going back and forth trying to figure OUT the temperature forecast... and we have decided to go with low-70s in the afternoon. It COULD be in the upper 60s, with enough cloud cover... but we think the sun will come out at least a little bit (much like it did today)... and that would boost temps a bit. We'll see, I guess...

Then the sunshine should be back for Wed-Friday... along with 80-degree highs! We haven't had much time lately to discuss what is now TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO... but let's take a quick look at the latest from the NHC:

AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA...ABOUT 30 MILES... 45 KM...EAST OF CAMAGUEY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

Notice where the remnants of Ernesto are forecasted to be! What's left over of this storm COULD be in Ohio over the holiday weekend! That would change our forecast for KC... so it is something we will have to watch through the week. I really HOPE Ernesto is NOT over Ohio, because I am going to be there!! I am taking a week off to go visit my family. Gary is back tomorrow, and will keep you updated!!

Have a great week!
Jamie

Posted by at 9:30 PM | Comments (1)

Evening Calm

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 79
LOW: 72

For those of you that wanted to see the very beginning of the Emmys... they will be re-broadcast on the Bravo Network Monday at 4pm.

OK... what a crazy night! Earlier this afternoon, I blogged about developing thunderstorms... little did we know one of them would turn tornadic!! This just goes to show you that they can--and DO-- produce tornados with little or no warning. It was not a classic tornado-type day by any means... but when it comes to weather... never say never.

Click to enlarge

Notice the red dot just to the east of Kansas City. This was a confirmed tornado touch-down! The spouse of a NWS employee spotted the tornado just north of Independence Center. Another report of a tornado--although not by a storm spotter--came 5 miles southwest of Sibley. We received many reports of tree limbs down... and some structural damage to a Quick Trip in the Independence area. Here is what the radar looked like as the storm in question came through Jackson County Missouri:

One of our storm spotters, Sean Wilson with Blown Away Tours, captured this amazing photo of a shelf cloud on that thunderstorm... truly beautiful:

He took this picture just south of Lexington, Missouri while chasing this evening! It was a rather dangerous situation... because the thunderstorm had such HIGH rainfall amounts... it is totally possible that any tornado was rain-wrapped... ie, you couldn't see it through the heavy rain.

We also have FLOODING problems all across the area. The heavy rains that came this evening fell on VERY saturated ground. If you didn't get to see it yet... tune in to NBC Action News tonight at 10pm to see some very impressive flood video!!

The main storm is still to our west... so while there is a lull in the precipitation now, our chances will really linger through Monday. I am wiped out.

Jamie

Posted by at 8:19 PM | Comments (14)

Update

Just a quick update... showers and thunderstorms are increasing across Kansas. These will move into our area as the afternoon goes on. Any thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rain!!!!

Thank you for all the totals you have sent it so far!!

Jamie

Posted by at 12:54 PM | Comments (15)

Rain Rain Raaaaiiiiiin!

Flooding has been a problem through the overnight... with more heavy rain across the area. Here is a look at Doppler estimated rainfall totals from just the overnight period:

Click to enlarge

Isolated areas around and through the Metro received 3+ inches of rain overnight... and off to the East... some spots total 4-5 inches since midnight. Now keep in mind, that all of this is on TOP of 2-3" that has already fallen in many spots. You can see how flooding continues to be a concern. Area waterways are running high... use caution around them. We also have more rain in the forecast for today and Monday... so remember the "Turn Around Don't Drown" mantra when approaching a water covered roadway!

Much like yesterday, we will go through a dry period today... but showers and thunderstorms are possible at any time. Overnight is when we are once again expecting the heavy stuff... so stay tuned! And keep the rainfall totals coming in... I will try to get a Bloggers Rainfall grapic together for the news tonight.

In the tropics... HURRICANE ERNESTO is born!!

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...180 KM...SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
210 MILES...340 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF CUBA.

Here is the forecasted path... it is quite different from just 12 hours ago!!!!

Click to enlarge

Ernesto could become a MAJOR hurricane before making landfall in the US.
More later... have a good day!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:41 AM | Comments (18)

More Rain Possible

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 83
LOW: 70

No real changes to the blog from earlier this morning. There is an ongoing area of thunderstorms to our southwest this evening... that will likely affect parts of the southern viewing area. But we will still have to watch for the development of additional thunderstorms later on tonight. Again, heavy rain is a concern... as the atmosphere is just loaded with moisture!

Here is a look at the rainfall totals from the NAM/WRF through Monday night. This model has been handling this situation the best so far...

Click to enlarge

I will have an update in the morning! Keep adding on to those totals... thanks for keeping us posted!
Jamie

Posted by at 9:20 PM | Comments (2)

WOW

How did you like that lightning show last night?? Pretty amazing... torrential rains to go along with it. And my goodness... did the rain come down!! Here is a look at doppler estimates, with some actual measurements placed on the map:

This morning, there are still some spotty showers/thunderstorms out there. To see where any rain is right NOW... check out LIVE ESP. Our frontal boundary is virtually right OVER us:

Click to enlarge

Sooooo we can't rule OUT showers/thunderstorms through the afternoon hours... HOWEVER... I do think that we will go through a dry PERIOD. Overnight, the chance of rain is higher once again. The low level jet is forecasted to strengthen over Kansas late tonight:

Click to enlarge

AND if thunderstorms get going... we are in Southwest flow aloft... so they could drift our way:

Click to enlarge

THEN another (relatively) dry period is possible Sunday afternoon/evening... before ANOTHER round of heavy rain is possible on Monday. Keep us posted on your rainfall totals... I will blog later tonight with an update!

Jamie

Posted by at 6:58 AM | Comments (28)

Here We Go!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 90
LOW: 77

What an interesting day! We started off with the scattered thunderstorms in the morning... then a nice dry period through most of the afternoon... and during the late afternoon... thunderstorms exploded over the Kansas City Metro area. There is now a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH in effect for much of the area through midnight. The culprit... large thunderstorms with the potential for damaging winds and large hail.

And we are still expecting a cooler and potentially WET weekend. It won't rain the WHOLE time... there will be periods of dry weather... but we are expecting WAVES of showers/thunderstorms. Let's take a look to see all the ingredients coming together. First... the main storm:

Click to enlarge

You can see it over the Northwestern part of the country. That storm will be a very SLOW mover over the weekend. Ahead of it... we will see wave after wave move through. Here is Saturday morning... you can see a wave moving right over us... and more lined up to the West:

Click to enlarge

So we start Saturday with a good chance of rain. The rain chances will come down a bit for the afternoon/evening hours... but the weekend is not over yet. We will likely see another round of thunderstorms on Sunday.

All of these waves moving through will be interacting with a FRONT that should be just south of us... and as you may notice... there is quite a bit of MOISTURE to work with... it is humid!! Here is a look at the surface tonight so you can see the other ingredients. Here is the frontal boundary (now just north of us)... and the high dew points are the numbers in the green colors:

We will have to watch for a FLOODING potential as some of the thunderstorms could set up to train over the same area. We would love it if you could leave us a comment with your rainfall totals! I have to go now... thunderstorms are going up RIGHT over the city... and this is exciting!! Here is something you might not know about our Forecast Center. It gets really LOUD when there is exciting thunderstorm activity... or when the models are looking exciting. We all get very giddy! I guess we are weather nerds here. ;)

Jamie

Posted by at 8:56 PM | Comments (7)

Chance of Rain Increasing

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 95
LOW: 71

First of all, thank you to EVERYONE for the tremendous outpouring of sympathy for Gary and his family. Windy obviously touched many of you... she has definitely been embraced by the community! We are very sad to see her go... but we all know she is in a better place. If you would like to leave a note for Gary, just go to WIND'YS BLOG ENTRY and comment at the bottom.

I spoke with Gary today, and he is doing well... hanging in there! I am told The Kansas City Star is working on another article on Windy and her amazing life... so look for that soon. Also, in lieu of flowers... Gary asks that you make a donation to the Humane Society or Wayside Waifs!

On to our forecasting thoughts... did you notice the increase in humidity today? Yesterday, our dew points were in the upper 50s most of the day. Today... they came up into the lower 70s!! That gave us a heat index value over 100 degrees at times this afternoon.

That moisture in place is contributing to our rain chances over the next few days. It is a TOUGH forecast for the weekend! A front will be in the area... and we will see a series of waves move through... bringing the chance of showers and thunderstorms.

It looks like the first round of rain could be Friday morning... between 4 and 10am. Then after that batch of thunderstorms... we think Friday afternoon will be dry... and partly cloudy. However, we can't rule out a spotty shower/t-storm... especially in the late afternoon/early evening.

THEN.... overnight Friday and on Saturday... SOMEbody could see some HEAVY rainfall. Exactly WHERE that will be is the huge headache right now. The NAM/WRF has it SOUTH of KC. The GFS has it right HERE. The Canadian has it NORTH. From what we can see... the set up is there... so we'll keep watching it!! Stay tuned!!

Jamie

Posted by at 5:38 PM | Comments (17)

Windy the weather dog

Windy before she got shaved in April

Windy after she was shaved

Windy getting wet at S.M. Lake two years ago

Windy sharing moments with kids at one of her last appearances

We have decided to put Windy the weather dog down in the morning. She has been struggling the past few days and now at 16 years 9 months old it is time. I don't want her to suffer. So, let me look back at a few of her memorable moments as she has entertained Kansas City since we arrived here in 1992. She was born in 1989 and adopted by some friends of mine in early 1991. I went there for dinner one night and they thought I would give her a better home and so I took her home with me early in 1991 and a great relationship began.

We have been to over 700 schools and public appearances where Windy performed tricks for the kids after my tornado safety talks. She was on the Oprah Winfrey show, Animal Planet channel's K9 to 5, and of course on local television helping out with the weather forecast. And when I became Chief meteorologist at NBC ACTION NEWS Windy was up on billboards to let everyone know that her master was coming back to do the weather soon. She almost died in Shawnee Mission Lake when she broke through some ice in 1993. She traveled all over the United States visiting Chicago, Aspen, and California. She loved just sticking her head out the window letting the wind blow in her face, walking in the snow, and just loving everyone. I will miss her so much.

Gary Lezak

Posted by at 5:35 PM | Comments (824)

Very dry weather

Good evening everyone,

It has been very dry, but only in spots. I can imagine it is driving a few of you nuts. Here are some rainfall totals for August:

Kirksville: 6.61"
Topeka: 5.16"
St. Joseph: 4.58"
Chillicothe: 4.36"
KCI airport: 2.32"
Gardner: 1.12"
St. Louis: 0.94"
Sedalia: 0.10"

So, you can see there are some areas all around us that have had enough rain this month. But, others that are so dry right now and for the year well below average. We are making a special graphic for the weathercasts right now.

This weekend was so frustrating. The weekend began with a nice area of rain just sitting over KCI and north between KCI and St. Joseph, and also between Kansas City and Topeka. Topeka had almost 2 inches of rain.

Then, on Sunday, thunderstorms lined up south of Paola near La Cygne in Linn county. That was the storm I was expecting for the area on Sunday, but instead of getting the forecast right the storm was flat and affected only a small area.

It still doesn't look great for rain chances this week. It has rained 24 weeks in a row so for the streak to continue we will have to rely on Friday or Saturday.

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid Thursday)

Notice the 500 mb map above. The main jet stream is becoming more active, gradually. We are still in the wrong spot and it appears we may make one more run at 100 degrees. We will announce the winner of the hottest day of summer contest next week.

Have a great week. I am taking a few days off beginning Wednesday.

Gary

Posted by at 4:02 PM | Comments (22)

Rain Chances Fizzle...

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 83
LOW: 72

Goooood afternoon, everyone! Well another weird weather day across the area, as most of the scattered rain activity has once again been in the Northern viewing area.

There is one final area of rain to our West... but will it make it here? It looks like it will be fighting drier Northeast winds as it heads our way. So a few light showers are still possible this evening... if it holds together. The greater chance of rain overnight and on into Sunday... will be for Southern Missouri:

Click to enlarge

In places that have seen more sunshine today... temperatures were warmer. Our northern viewing area spent much of the afternoon in the upper 70s to right around 80. To the south... it was in the mid 80s to near 90.

Click to enlarge

But the sun broke out in the late afternoon... and that gave some of the northern cities a little boost!

For Sunday... we may start off with some cloud cover... but sunshine should break out through the afternoon. I am thinking highs will be in the lower to mid 80s across the area, depending on how much sun we see. Our next rain chance comes at the end of the 7-day period... Friday into Saturday... with a cold front.

Now for some Seattle pictures, as promised! We vacationed there last weekend.

It was a beautiful Saturday to shop the famous Seattle Public Market! Because of this... it was REALLY crowded! The original Starbucks is located here... that was pretty cool to see! Just beyond the Market, there is a grassy area along the Sound. It was so pretty to just sit there and relax!

This is where they throw the fish. It is so entertaining! Someone will come up with an order... and all these guys behind the fish counter start yelling the order over and over to each other. Then one guy picks out whatever fish was ordered... and they throw it across the counter to each other! They even have a big stuffed animal fish that they throw to freak out the crowd. :)

We heard rumors of a Troll that was forever frozen in stone in a neat little neighborhood called Freemont. Sure enough, we found him under a bridge. That is a reall VW Bug he is crushing!

Then it was on to Orcas Island, where one of my best friends from high school got married. This is the Ferry that takes you there!

I could not believe how many cars they fit on the Ferry!!

My husband swears that little black dot at the top center... is a seal! :)

We hiked to the top of Mt. Constitution on a cloudy day!

A look at a river below... through the clouds.

That is Mt. Constitution on the left... this is the view from the Bed and Breakfast where we stayed!

It was SUCH a beautiful wedding! Congrats to the bride & groom!

It was a great trip... with some of my best friends from high school! These are all people I graduated with.

Hope you enjoyed them!
Jamie :)

Posted by at 3:55 PM | Comments (10)

Good Rains for Some

Good morning!

Well once again, some of you have missed out on overnight rainfall. It is the same situation as the past few mornings... most of the rain has been to the north and west of Kansas City. Although it did creep slightly further east... bringing just under an inch to downtown Kansas City. Here is a look at rainfall totals as of this morning:

Tough forecast for today and tomorrow. The good news... it should be cooler in town, and to the south... where temps soared into the 100s yesterday. Today, I am shooting for a high near 80 degrees. We are starting the day with rain around... and it should taper off as the morning goes on. Later today, isolated thunderstorms are not out of the question. And we have been watching a potential storm for Sunday, as well. Right now... it looks like the best chance of rain from that one would be south of KC. But it is something to watch!

I will post some vacation pics from Seattle later this evening! I hope you have a great day!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:04 AM | Comments (10)

Strange developments

Good evening,

I was just on at 6 PM and Jeff Penner came through with confidence. We were discussing what could happen tonight and both of us feel that we are in this zone between the weak front to our south and the 850 mb front to our north, not to mention the main cold front coming down. It is showing up on satellite rather well and between now and midnight we can expect thunderstorms to become wide spread near I-70 all the way out to western Kansas. We are in light west flow aloft and these thunderstorms must overspread our area.

Then, Saturday night and Sunday is very interesting. There is also a weak circulation in the satellite pictures near the Colorado/Kansas border. A storm may be developing aloft and then the only place it can go is right over Kansas and slowly. This could bring a very heavy rainfall event just west of here Saturday and Saturday night, but it could move in here Sunday. I will show some maps later if this trend continues. The GFS has it clearly and the NAM model has a string of vorticity max's over northern Kansas late Saturday so watch out. This could have a happy ending, or we could be left frustrated again.

9:20 PM now......
New data strongly supports the potential storm on Sunday and rain on Saturday. But, something unexplainable keeps happening. Columbia, MO just got hit by a major thunderstorm with torrential rain. Thunderstorms are reforming near and just east of Kansas City. It is one thing if we miss this ONE, but it is every one of these. I have a feeling we will be getting a lot of rain this weekend. If we don't then I may not have much explanation for you. It is all there and thunderstorms are all over the place. But, they keep missing us.

Gary

Posted by at 6:24 PM | Comments (5)

Afternoon rain

Good afternoon,

ESP LIVE at 2:20 PM today

Above is the radar image from ESP at 2:20 this afternoon. The rain with embedded thunderstorms has lined up just north of Kansas City. This should come as no surprise as we had expected the heaviest rain to fall north of I-435. So, will it shift southward? Notice the cold front, or rather stationary front near 435 south extending east crossing I-70 near Grain Valley. That line of echoes is just the front where the wind shift lies. And you can see it below on the latest surface map.

Click to enlarge (Surface map this afternoon)

With the front near Kansas City we have to watch for some thunderstorm development this evening. But, more likely thunderstorms will form between 10 PM and 2 AM near and just north of this weak frontal boundary. The main cold front will also be approaching from Nebraska and both of these features with weak flow aloft and an abundance of moisture sets the region up for excessive rainfall. But where will it fall? The center of attention could be near Salina, Kansas City, or Columbia later tonight and Saturday. I just don't have a feel for it yet and it is driving me a bit nuts. I would like to see some evidence of it developing before I pin point the location of heaviest rain. Bottom line: We are still struggling to get it to rain in some of the driest spots.

Everyone.......do you rain dance this evening! At least it is Friday. If we have any exciting developments we will blog later on.

Gary

Posted by at 2:26 PM | Comments (5)

Frustration building

Good morning,

I will blog later as we will know more about tonight' set up around 3 PM or so. In the mean time we can find the weak wind shift on the south side of Kansas City. Clouds keep developing along and north of this boundary with thunderstorms increasing well to the north. Could we be left dry tonight, or will it become exciting? I am concerned. Let's wait until 3 or 4 PM and see how everything is lining up.

Gary

Posted by at 10:25 AM | Comments (15)

A very difficult forecast

Good afternoon everyone,

The clouds are all breaking up and with temperatures above the surface quite warm I am expecting the temperature to take off during the next three hours. 96 is our forecast high and I think we will make it. Tomorrow is much more difficult. A strange wind shift line will be near Kansas City during the day. It will act sort of like a warm front with thunderstorms and rain forming along and north of this boundary. Where the wind shift line is located will likely decide quite a few different things. Where will the heaviest rain be? Where will the 100 degree heat be?
The models agree that the wind shift line will be near Kansas City, but the real cold front is sort of to the north in Nebraska. This complicates the forecast, but it is also very similar to Sunday evening when we had fairly widespread thunderstorms with a lot of rain across northern Missouri. Will the same thing happen again with this set up?

Click to enlarge
Can you find the fronts? Look for the kinks in the isobars. This is where the wind shifts and troughs of low pressure are located. Below, I have drawn in the fronts in blue. The wind shift or weak cold front is near Kansas City Friday at 7 PM. This is almost identical to the set up on Sunday evening so it could get fairly exciting with some thunderstorms. But, then again, this is very strange. More later on after we analyze more data.
Click to enlarge

Gary

Posted by at 11:11 AM | Comments (27)

Strange weather set up

Good afternoon,

The latest data is trickling in. We are making our forecast this afternoon and trying to figure out if this tropical plume of moisture will bring us more than clouds. It really shouldn't be such a struggle for us to see some heavy rain later this week, but it may be. Another forecast problem is the potential heat. Our local region will be on the edge of the tremendous heat. If anything the trend is for the heat to be just south of us with heavy rain to the north. This is really a unique rather strange weather set up.

Below is the latest NAM rainfall forecast for Thursday night through Saturday. And, the next map is the 500 mb flow valid Friday afternoon. The main jetstream is still across Canada which means this next front is again just a summertime cold front. As soon as the jet stream dips and gets involved with the flow into the United States then we can look for that first fall cold front. This sometimes does happen in late August, and it also sometimes can wait until mid September.

Rainfall Forecast (Thursday night through Saturday) Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid Friday 1 PM)

I just don't have much confidence in this forecast at the moment and I hate just saying a chance of showers and thunderstorms. I like to pinpoint the timing, amounts, and location of the rainfall, but with this set up we must wait another day. Hopefully it will look a bit more likely for rainfall by tonight's data. You know I will go for it as soon as we believe in it. We are going to stick with our 70% chance at least for now.

Have a great day.

Posted by at 4:06 PM | Comments (8)

New data and hottest contest

New data is in and it has a major twist to Fridays hot forecast. A wave moves by during the day and a band of clouds or even showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Any cloud cover will keep it below 100 degrees. So, we are waiting on the new GFS to see what the trend is. This wave on the latest NAM model is very different from the morning run. And, the latest trend is for no rain this weekend. We have a lot to figure out tonight.

So, the hottest day of the year may have already been reached. It is a tie between three different 104 degree days as seen below.

It was 104 degrees on the following dates and times:
July 19th....2:37 PM
August 1st..2:59 PM
August 4th..3:24 PM

It appears we have a clear winner. It's me....just kidding even though I did pick August 4th. We will continue to look over it one more time, but I think only one other person picked one of the days exactly. More later. The winner will get a plush Windy and Stormy pet and one of my books "Our Spacious Skies".

Posted by at 4:37 PM | Comments (18)

T-Storms..Extreme Heat....then more T-Storms

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow Wednesday morning)

The above map is the forecast flow at 18,000 feet up (500 mb level) valid at 7 AM Wednesday morning. Can you see the green shaded area stretching across Kansas? This is a band of vorticity which will create some lifting during the morning. There will likely be late night thunderstorms generated and then they may make it into our area during the morning tomorrow.

Click to enlarge (850 mb flow valid Friday evening)

The above map is the NAM 850 mb forecast for 84 hours (valid Friday 7 PM). This is as hot as it has been all summer and if we have complete sunshine Friday it could be the hottest day of the year. But, we may have some clouds as a front is close by. The front is then expected to stall near the Oklahoma border and we may be in a zone for very heavy rain as you can see below in the forecast rainfall for this weekend. Don't get too excited yet, but everything is acting differntly. Have you noticed yet?

Click to enlarge (Rainfall forecast Friday night through Sunday night)

Have a great day. After I get to work I will post the hottest day entries right here. So look back later on.

Gary

Posted by at 10:56 AM | Comments (4)

End of week rain & dogs night out

Good evening everyone,

The end of the week has a similar set up to what just happened. It is only Monday so it will look differently each day as it approaches. The latest GFS has over 5 inches across northern Kansas and northern Missouri between Friday night and Sunday. Remember we are in a different pattern now and as we just saw the precipitation distribution was very different. So, next weekend there is hope.

Dog's night out was Saturday night at the Wizards. It was a lot of fun. Breezy, Stormy and about 125 dogs and their owners had a great time. Below are a few pictures. I hope you enjoyed the cooler weather today, now enjoy these pictures.

The dogs watching soccer

Being introduced with Breezy and Stormy

Kicking off with Breezy and Stormy by my side

Winner of the Wizards costume contest

Have a great night!

Posted by at 8:20 PM | Comments (8)

Comments are back up and running

Good evening,

The comments are working again. I will answer the few that have come in. We are sorry for the inconvenience. Anyone who commented over the weekend or on Friday may have been lost.

The weather situation is interesting again for the end of the week. We need some more rain, but many spots had a lot of rain Sunday night into this morning. 1.55" in Warrensburg, more than 2 inches in Pleasant Hill. Trenton had almost 2.75". Kansas City north had more than one inch. A few spots had near a half of an inch.

So, the new pattern is doing what I expected. The rainfall patterns along the cold fronts are very different. Everything has changed. There is hope.

More tomorrow. Jamie has been on vacation in Seattle. She will be filling in for Brett later this week.

Gary

Posted by at 6:08 PM | Comments (1)

Blog trouble and cloudy day

Good morning everyone,

It was almost a great wide spread rainfall. However, Mother Nature decided to leave our local area out of it. Oh, we did get 1/2 inch or more in most spots, but St. Joseph had 1.26" in just over an hour this morning and Topeka westward got blasted early this morning.

Now, it is cloudy for the next few hours and likely most of the day. Rain is rather heavy just west of us again and likely missing the KC metro area besides a few sprinkles. Temperatures are dropping and we are going to have a fall like feel this afternoon.

We will look ahead later today. The weather pattern has potential for excitement later in the week.

Comments have not come in since Friday. I know some of you have had to made a comment so we are working on fixing this problem. It should be resolved this afternoon.

Gary

Posted by at 10:41 AM | Comments (4)

Thunderstorms are developing

Good evening everyone,

It was 101 today! Wow!

The north side of Kansas City was in the band of heavier thunderstorms. The band has shifted southeastward and some areas could see well over one inch of rain tonight. The next few hours could be exciting.

Below is ESP at 8:55 PM. Notice all of the thunderstorms forming north of the front. You can see the front as the dark green echoes on ESP just northwest of La Cygne to just south of Harrisonville. This is a good position to bring the heavier rain into the south side.
8:55 this evening

Gary

Posted by at 7:39 PM

In Search of Rain

We really need the rain, especially in Platte & Clay counties. KCI has received 14.62" of rain this year. The average is 23.88". So, we are nearly 10" below average for the year. South of the river the rainfall deficits are 5" to 8". This is bad, but not like up north.

So, where can we find rain? Well, there is a cold front timed for late Sunday night into Monday. T-Storms will fire on this front Sunday afternoon in Nebraska. Many of our computer models suggest the T-Storms will weaken & break apart as they approach. Hopefully, this won't happen, but it does fit summer 2006. Below, is the total rainfall from the latest NAM model. We are in about .50" to 1". However, notice just east of here there is not much. Some areas could easily get missed or just get .10". The T-Storms just need to hold together until about 7-8 am Monday. If that is the case, we will get some nice, widespread rain.

Whether it rains or not, this front does have some cooler & drier air behind it. So, the first half of next workweek will be much more comfortable.

Click to Enlarge

Posted by at 4:00 PM

What does the pattern change mean?

Good morning, It's FRIDAY!

I am one of the judges at the Elvis parade today. It is downtown at noon on the Barney "Elvis" Plaza, right across from the Marriott hotel. Come on down and get there by 11:30 or so. The parade begins at 12:05 PM.

Now onto the pattern! If you are a regular reader of this blog then you know I talk about the weather pattern and how it develops, cycles, and falls apart. I have a theory of which we are always working on: "The weather pattern sets up between October 10th and November 10th. It then begins cycling. This cycle is undefined until it begins repeating. Usually by mid December or early January at the latest the pattern is repeating and then the cycle is defined. The pattern continues until it falls apart in late July or early August". This is my theory of which we are convinced happens every year. I have been keeping track of this since the late 1980s when I discovered it. And, the past few years I have all of the data that shows the evidence. I presented this theory in Washington D.C. last August at the Broadcast Conferenece for the A.M.S.

One part of the theory is that it falls apart around this time of the year. And, it just fell apart. And, I believe what has been the "same" pattern since last October and early November no longer exists. It literally in the process of dying right now and by Sunday I think it is gone. There isn't a trace of it left. The past few weeks as I have looked for its demise I thought it was falling apart two or three other times, but this time it is obvious. There were some unique characteristics to this pattern that began 10 months ago. One of which has been a mean "long term" long wave ridge extending from Montana north into Canada. This feature is the main reason why we have had a hot summer, a dry year, and a very frustrating pattern. If there is a strong mean ridge near Montana and it extends north from there then storm systems have very little chance of intensifying as they approach us, which is what we want in an exciting pattern. Instead storm systems go through that ridge and then are nothing as they move into the plains. This ridge has been one of the main features. It isn't always there, but it has been there for about 60 to 70% of this cycling pattern that was about 60 days for each cycle which has repeated many times since the first cycle completed in December. The other 30 to 40% of the pattern was somewhat more interesting as that ridge was in a weakened state.

This Montana northward ridge is also the reason for our heat waves. As summer has progressed the heat would build downstream of this mean ridge over the Dakotas and then spread in from the northwest, back to the west and then make another run at us from the Rockies. This has now happened several times and is the reason South Dakota has had near 120 degree heat a few times.

So, I believe the pattern is gone by Sunday. What does this mean? It may still be hard to notice at times since it is still August. And, depending on what this transition pattern is, we will be susceptable to different set ups for heat. Another heat wave is not out of the question. At the same time, some of the frustrations with the lack of rain and lack of excitement with thunderstorms may be relieved. Sunday night and Monday will be our first test. Let's see how the rain patterns set up through our region. Oh, it still is August and it may be tough, but something different will happen.

Below is the 168 hour 500 mb flow from last night's GFS run. The deep trough in the west from the north pole on down is so different than anything we have seen with the last pattern. But, since the main jet stream is still north, as it should be at this time of year, it will likely still be hot.

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow one week from today)

There are so many things different about the pattern beginning in the next two days. This "in between" pattern is going to be in chaotic flow until early to mid October when a new pattern evolves and begins cycling. I can't imagine a worse pattern than the one we just experienced and we are so overdue for an exciting pattern. Can you imagine a normal winter with average snowfall. Average snowfall is around 20 inches (100 year average). That would seem like a lot of snow.

Have a great weekend.

Gary

Posted by at 7:47 AM | Comments (5)

Today throws us for another loop

It is now late afternoon. The thunderstorms are no longer heading our way or growing. So, it may rain, but this frustrating day continues.

Sunday still looks hot, but the weather pattern has changed. I think we can now say it is official. The old pattern is falling apart NOW and the craziness begins next week with something completely new. It all starts Sunday night with a stronger cold front with potential for thunderstorms. I am working Sunday night, so maybe it will be exciting. And, then the cooler airmass will flow in on Monday. It is still a summer cold front so only expect a little cooling but it should feel great.

With the pattern completely changing, the rain patterns along cold fronts and warm fronts will act differently. Let's see if we notice this next week.

Today has been draining. At least some rain is moving in and the pattern is changing, but since it is still August we will be susceptable to one more heat wave.

Gary

Posted by at 5:12 PM | Comments (4)

Thunderstorms are redeveloping...updated

Good afternoon,

Thunderstorms, a bit stronger than the earlier ones are starting to develop just west and northwest. The cold front is hard to find as the lower levels are all messed up by the earlier thunderstorms. I will try to figure this out, but there is hope for some more rain. There is a thunderstorm near Manhattan and it is 100 degrees. It is 93 at KCI so the atmosphere is destablizing.

This strange day of weather continues. More later.

O.K. Here is the more later.....

The morning thunderstorms were somewhat of a fluke. I don't think it has affected the atmosphere enough to ruin our chances of late afternoon through evening thunderstorms. There is a wave twisting, weakly, to our northwest north of Manhattan, KS. This is moving steadily east southeast and should be near the state line by 9 PM. A more organized area of thunderstorms has developed and this is heading right towards us. It may be an exciting evening. Some severe weather is possible, but mostly heavy thunderstorms will be the result.

I still can't find much of a reason for this mornings thunderstorms. It messed up our forecast but we are living and the weather is getting exciting.

Gary

Posted by at 1:36 PM | Comments (5)

Today is a strange day

A lot of you are writing in and I will get to the comments soon. One blog comment just came in saying why does our website say 94 and we still have 106 in the Blog. Brett Anthony has decided that these clouds will hang in there and it will keep the high down to 94. It is clear just west of Kansas City and I would just prefer us to go down with the ship on today's forecast if it does stay cloudy. But, if the sun comes out early this afternoon and we make a run into the 100s then it is better to just stick with it. So, we may be very wrong today.

Some will call or write in or email me saying how horrible our forecast was for today. And, rightly so. But, if you get 9 forecasts right in a row and then blow one then that is 9 out of 10 in my book or 90% accuracy. So, today it this unusual day.

I am not even sure where these thunderstorms are coming from. It has literally been driving me a bit nuts. But, I am over it now. Let's see what happens this afternoon as this zone of developing thunderstorms shifts east. Maybe this is just the finale of this horrible weather pattern.

Gary

Posted by at 11:01 AM | Comments (11)

Hottest day of the year, then T-Storms

Good morning,

Today appears that it will be the hottest day of the year. Everything is there. #1: The clouds are really falling apart so if this trend continues it will be mostly sunny at max heating time. #2: A wind shift line, or weak cold front, is likely going to be just north of St. Joseph this evening placing us in an ideal location for compressional heating ahead of the front. #3: It is very warm just above the surface, warmer than yesterday at 850 mb. These three ingredients point towards the hottest day of the year. 106 or even 108 or higher is possible by 4 PM today.

Then, tonight with the extreme heat and the front combining there could be some severe thunderstorms breaking out. Very heavy rain will be possible, but picking out the exact location at this moment is difficult. It seems that it could happen near I-70 and then drift slowly producing some very heavy rainfall amounts. We will be working on pin pointing the location later today.

It should be 15 to 20 degrees colder on Friday with some clouds hanging around. Then, by Sunday we may make it back up to 100 degrees. In August, 2003, it hit 100 9 times and it was 106 once. So, it has only been three years since it was this hot at this time of year.

Have a great day and try to drink a lot of water and stay in the air conditioning. I will blog later about the rain chances.

Gary

Posted by at 7:26 AM | Comments (12)

103 today so far!

Good afternoon everyone,

It has been 103 officially at KCI airport already. We may have fallen just short of 104 degrees. If the front slows down a bit and we have limited cloud cover 106 or 108 is possible on Thursday. Some of the models slow the front down, so Thursday could be the hottest day of the year.

Then, thunderstorms are very possible later Thursday through Friday with a strange storm moving across Kansas. There will likely be 3 inches or more within 80 miles again. Will we miss it again?

Click to enlarge

The above map shows the flow at 500 mb valid Friday afternoon. Look at the X in southern Kansas. This is a weak upper level storm moving slowly through the state. We had something similar to this two weeks ago and it was cloudy all day with some rain and thunderstorms. So, there is a chance this could happen again. The models have some rain near by, but most of it is forecasted for southern Kansas. We need it to be slightly farther north.

Gary

Posted by at 4:37 PM | Comments (10)

Strange weather & "ophan anvil"

Good evening everyone,

There is a weak front stalled just south of Kansas City this evening. It may help generate a few thunderstorms, as it already has but they have had a hard time holding together.

Then, the weather pattern is very strange. Earlier this afternoon I thought we would be near or above 100 degrees for five days. But, the models are trending to lower heights aloft which will make it tougher for us to maintain the hot atmosphere, plus the front may drift back through us and a storm in the upper levels could form over Kansas by Thursday night which could increase our threat of rain. Let's see how we feel about these things later tonight.

So, how are you enjoying NBC ACTION WEATHER PLUS? Have you checked it out on your computer. It is streaming! Just go to our website and click on it. It is on the front page. Have you seen it on the digital channel on your cable system? Let us know how you feel about this new 24 hour weather source!

Have a great evening. Thunderstorms could still form near the front.

The above picture was taken by Bob Jarred in Bonner Springs. It is really an amazing photo. It is called an "orphan anvil". I am talking about the anvil that is almost completely broken off of the cumulunimbus cloud. The base is falling apart and soon will dissipate, and then often the anvil is all that is left, thus the name orphan anvil.

Gary

Posted by at 5:47 PM | Comments (15)

Rain staying north

Click to enlarge (Rainfall estimate last 24 hours)

Good morning! We missed it, unless you live 80 miles north or northeast of Kansas City where the thunderstorms continue this morning. It does not appear we will see any thunderstorms through mid afternoon and Wednesday is going to sizzle and it could be the hottest day of the year. We still have to watch outflow boundaries closely this morning to see if anything develops further south but this would likely happen after 3 PM. I just see no evidence of it at this moment so our chance of rain is 30%.

Have a great day. If we see anything changing we will update the blog.

Gary

Posted by at 6:57 AM | Comments (8)

Picturesque evening cumulonimbus clouds

Evening Thunderstorm over southeast Jackson county at sunset

Good evening everyone,

Wow! What an exciting evening if you were looking to the east. More pictures later. This one is from Tim in Greenwood.

We are still tracking the potential for an interesting Tuesday. Be sure to watch at 10 PM.

Gary

Posted by at 8:50 PM | Comments (1)

Hottest day of the year & T-Storms

Good morning. It has been a somewhat exciting morning of thunderstorms on the Kansas Side, and there is a chance of thunderstorms tonight as you can see below on the overnight GFS forecast.

ESP at 7:30 this morning...Heavy thunderstorms

Click to enlarge (GFS 06z rainfall forecast tonight through Tuesday)

Above is the forecast rainfall for tonight through Tuesday. It could line up further north so don't get too excited. We will be analyzing the data very carefully and if we feel that it will happen tonight then our graphics on the air will be rather interesting to create. I don't have a feel for this yet.

Now onto the heat.

The hottest days so far:

It was 104 degrees on the following dates and times:
July 19th....2:37 PM
August 1st..2:59 PM
August 4th..3:24 PM

Officially at KCI the high temperature was 104 yesterday afternoon at 3:24 PM. It was 105 downtown and the hottest day of the year at most locations, but our official sight is KCI airport.

These were our predictions for the hottest day of the year. We aren't allowed to win so don't worry. We will post some more entries soon.

Brett: August 11, 4:13 PM
Jeff: August 22, 3:58 PM
Gary: August 6, 4:01 PM
Jamie: August 21, 4 PM

Click to enlarge (850 mb temperatures and flow valid 7 PM Thursday)

If the above map is close to being correct we will not have to worry about the three way tie for the hottest day. Thursday could soar even higher. The pattern seems to be changing, so let's see what this looks like as we get closer. The heat just keeps on recycling.

Have a great day!!!!!!!!

Gary

Posted by at 6:55 AM | Comments (16)

WOW

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 104
LOW: 79

What a HOT day!! But you didn't need me to tell you that... here is a list of area high temperatures:

KCI: 104
DOWNTOWN: 105
OLATHE: 102
LEES SUMMIT: 102
OVERLAND PARK: 105
ST. JOSEPH: 100
CHILLICOTHE: 100
PLEASANT HILL: 104
TOPEKA: 105
SEDALIA: 105
CONCORDIA: 104

With the heat of the day... many of you have noticed the cumulus clouds that have been growing:

Looking North from the Plaza... 4:30pm

We have to watch for isolated thunderstorms to develop yet this late afternoon/evening. As we lose daytime heating... any thunderstorms should weaken. Here is a look at a few lone cells in Johnson County, Missouri on ESP:

Click above image for the most CURRENT radar

The more organized thunderstorms, as expected, have been to our Northwest:

These thunderstorms are moving east, so there is still the slight risk of severe activity in our Northern viewing area yet this evening.

The cold front should be south of us Monday and Tuesday... bringing slightly cooler temperatures (highs in the lower 90s). BUT the front will stall... and it could be JUST close enough to keep us with a 20% chance of isolated thunderstorms BOTH days.

Then... it POPS north of us on Wednesday... opening the floodgate for more HEAT. 100-degree heat, once again, for the 2nd half of the week... ugh!

Jamie

Posted by at 4:24 PM | Comments (7)

Heat Alert

Good morning!

There is a HEAT ALERT in effect for much of the viewing area today. I am even more confident we will be into the 100s, as there is not a cloud in the sky this morning! Get ready for a HOT day!!

So what about the chance of rain? Well... that one I am NOT as confident about. It does look like there is a CHANCE... but the better chance will be early this evening NORTH of Kansas City:

As the front moves toward the Metro... the thunderstorm chance becomes more SPOTTY. I am going with a 30% chance of ISOLATED thunderstorms:

There is still the SLIGHT RISK of severe weather this evening... but lets see how it sets up as the day goes on. I will keep you posted.

Beyond this rain chance... the models are going crazy... painting moisture and RH over us. I just don't have a feel for a GOOD rain chance Monday/Tuesday... although I think, again, an ISOLATED thunderstorm the next few days is not out of the question.

Be careful in the heat today,
Jamie

Posted by at 8:00 AM | Comments (10)

Hot With a Side of Thunderstorms

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 98
LOW: 73

The heat is building back into the area... upper 90s today... and over 100 degrees forecasted for Sunday (we are going 104). We will be watching an approaching COLD FRONT Sunday afternoon/evening. It looks like it will be just north of KC when we reach peak heating. Here is the NAM (WRF) model for early Sunday evening:

Click to enlarge

With that front comes the chance of a few thunderstorms. You can see we are in a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather:

Click to enlarge

If thunderstorms DO form, the biggest threat will be damaging winds... so we will watch it for you! Again, this is for Sunday afternoon/evening! Monday/Tuesday is also tricky... I think the chance of a few thunderstorms is there either day. And any clouds/rain will do a number on temperatures.

Enjoy the evening, and I will update you tomorrow!
Jamie

Posted by at 4:01 PM | Comments (4)

Heat Builds Again

Good morning!

It was funny... yesterday Gary said to me, "Don't do a blog yet... I want to do the blog today!" I thought he would have some deep and profound take on the forecast or the weather pattern... but he REALLY wanted to brag about his "hottest day prediction"!! :) LOL!

Well, he is in the running. Sunday is still looking HOT! It really depends on where the cold front is... and how much cloud cover we see. The overnight model runs still have the front bi-secting the viewing area Sunday afternoon. South of the front, and it could be 100+... north of the front will be cooler. Also... the potential for isolated thunderstorms continues for late Sunday:

Click to enlarge

Then Monday/Tuesday should be cooler before the 100-degree heat is back by mid-week. Ugh! I am going to Seattle later in the week... I will be very happy to leave 100+ temps to enjoy highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s for a few days. :) I will be sure to take some pictures to share when I return!

Hope you have a great Saturday!
Jamie

Posted by at 6:59 AM | Comments (3)

Hottest summer day!

The hottest days so far:

It was 104 degrees on the following dates and times:
July 19th....2:37 PM
August 1st..2:59 PM

My forecast for the hottest day is Sunday. And, there is a chance. I am so excited. Anyway, we really have the potential for a huge warm up on Sunday. Look below at this mornings NAM 850 mb forecast. We are in the axis of highest temperatures at this level with near 27 degrees Celsius. This would be the warmest temperature at this level so far this year. And, a weak cold front approaching will enhance the heating if there aren't many clouds. Right now it looks sunny to us. So, 104 or so is again possible.

Click to enlarge (Look at the 27 degree C isotherm, red line near KC)

Then, it could even go higher mid to late next week. Also, the cold front which will be near Kansas City Sunday evening could kick off a few thunderstorms. They could be quite picturesque if they form.

Have a great weekend. I am hoping for Sunday to get out of control.

Gary

Posted by at 3:34 PM | Comments (7)

Stormy Night

Yesterday was exciting with the thunderstorms coming through the area. Most locations picked up some pretty good rainfall amounts... beneficial rains that we definitely needed! Here is a look at the highs for Wednesday, and the approaching cold front:

An upper level wave came in from the Southwest as well, which helped to produce even more rain. Here is what the radar looked like just before 10pm:

Here are some of the rainfall totals for the area:
KCI: 1.32"
DOWNTOWN: .71"
OLATHE: .57"
ST. JOSEPH: .76"
TOPEKA: .68"
LAWRENCE: .33"
EMPORIA: .79"
CHILLICOTHE: .78"
MANHATTAN: .44"

But it wasn't JUST rain! Did you see/hear/feel the WIND?? It was howling!! You can even pick out the gust front on the radar image... the thin green echos leading the way for the thunderstorms:

Click to enlarge

The gust front is a boundary that separates the rain-cooled/downdraft air from the air initially in place (in our case... hot and humid air!) Winds are very gusty and cooler behind the gust front... as you may have noticed if you were outdoors when it hit. The winds were gusting between 50 and 70 mph... they even snapped a huge branch off the tree in front of our place! And wind was the most common storm report:

There were numerous trees down... powerlines... structure damage... and there was even a semi truck that was overturned near Russell, Kansas on I-70!

Now... today... things are much more comfortable outside! Temperatures are in the 80s, and it is less humid... with dew points in the mid 60s. BUT... the heat may not be gone for long! It is looking like it could be back into the 100s by Sunday. Gary will explain this in his weathercast tonight at 5, 6 and 10pm!

I hope you have a good Thursday!
Jamie

Posted by at 1:37 PM | Comments (8)

Thunderstorms tonight & forecasting accuracy

Click to enlarge (Surface map for 7 PM tonight)

The above map is the surface map forecast for 7 PM this evening. The cold front is likely just north of KCI airport. This places us in prime position to have significant rainfall, and some severe thunderstorm activity. Over 4 inches of rain could fall with training echoes and we won't really know where this axis of heaviest rainfall will be until the thunderstorms develop. Right now it could be near the I-70 corridor, but it could be north or south by 50 miles. Hopefully, the thunderstorms will line up north of us and slowly sag southward. This would be a perfect scenario for most of us to have some beneficial rainfall and excitement. At this moment I am leaning towards this scenario.

Below is the rainfall forecast from the WRF (Old NAM model). It shows the rainfall axis right where it should be near the front. Remember the upper level storm in New Mexico is now moving into Kansas. It is slowly weakening but it is still there and it is something to watch as this could aid in the production of excessive rainfall.

Click to enlarge (Rainfall forecast for 7 PM to 7 AM tonight WRF model)

Have a great day. We will try to update our blog later. Thank you for your comments on the accuracy of our weather predictions. There really is a huge difference and I am trying to find a way to get the message out to viewers that just haven't given it enough thought.

Here are the latest ratings from the current season of weather forecasting. The season began in March and lasts through February. In most markets the lead is around 0.10 to 0.25. Our lead of over 1 point is actually quite substantial. The other forecasters are all bunched together. The lower the number the more accurate the forecast, like a golf score. This is the fifth season Weatherate.com has had. So, if we win, it will be like winning the Superbowl, or the World Series five years in a row.

NBC ACTION NEWS: 6.17
Second place station: 7.19
Third place station: 7.23
Fourth place station: 7.30

Gary

Posted by at 10:47 AM | Comments (22)

Record High today

KCI hit 104 degrees today (2:59 PM) which ties the record high set back in the extremely hot summer of 1980. Last week I had several calls/emails/blogs talking about weather.com and how they were forecasting 98 at the most. And, we were criticized on one radio station since we were forecasting 106 degrees. Well, in the end our forecast came out pretty good. I hate tooting our own horn, but for some reason people go to weather.com for our local forecasts when it is always way off. Why rely on that site?

It is hot and I think we are all ready for some cooler weather. Unfortunately, another heat wave may build in Sunday through Wednesday. The upper high over the east shifts south and then northwest to right near us by Tuesday. Ouch!

If it doesn't rain Wednesday night it will get a bit crispy. Hopefully a nice line of thunderstorms will slowly move across. I have concerns it will be just north of us, but let's see how it looks on Wednesday.

Gary

Posted by at 5:11 PM | Comments (17)

Cold front approaches.......Rain?

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid 7 PM Wednesday)

Click to enlarge (Surface pattern valid 1 AM Thursday morning)

Above are two maps that just came in with the new data. Look at the first map above. This is the 500 mb flow (18,000 feet up). Find the X in Kansas. This is the vorticity maximum, what we call the "vort max". I think it is the leftover center of the upper low that has been spinning over New Mexico for days. So, this could be real and a big player in our weather during the next 36 hours. The second map shows the weakening frontal boundary. By 1 AM tomorrow night it is south of Kansas City, but with the upper level storm approaching the heavy thunderstorms would likely be north of the front which places us in the prime position to have widespread rain. There will be a zone that has over 3 inches of rain.

The GFS has the maximum rainfall just north of Kansas City Wednesday night. It will be interesting how it all pans out. MUCH COOLER air should move in for Thursday and Friday.

Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 10:36 AM | Comments (7)