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103 today so far!
Good afternoon everyone,
It has been 103 officially at KCI airport already. We may have fallen just short of 104 degrees. If the front slows down a bit and we have limited cloud cover 106 or 108 is possible on Thursday. Some of the models slow the front down, so Thursday could be the hottest day of the year.
Then, thunderstorms are very possible later Thursday through Friday with a strange storm moving across Kansas. There will likely be 3 inches or more within 80 miles again. Will we miss it again?
Click to enlarge
The above map shows the flow at 500 mb valid Friday afternoon. Look at the X in southern Kansas. This is a weak upper level storm moving slowly through the state. We had something similar to this two weeks ago and it was cloudy all day with some rain and thunderstorms. So, there is a chance this could happen again. The models have some rain near by, but most of it is forecasted for southern Kansas. We need it to be slightly farther north.
Posted by at August 9, 2006 4:37 PM
106 or 108??? I start sweating just thinking about that. I'd also like to send out a reminder to people that when it is this hot out, please don't leave your pets outside for long periods of time. And please make sure they have plenty of fresh water.
I will mention it!
Posted by: Marlina at August 9, 2006 4:42 PM
Gary was just wonering if we are going to get any of them thunderstorms to the south of us right now.
We are not going to see any this evening. There is a chance on Thursday or Friday.
Posted by: Jeremy McWhirt at August 9, 2006 5:03 PM
Gary - Good question - will we see any storms tomorrow? My answer? "I think not".
As you've pointed out this horrific pattern, tho weakened, just refuses a lot of us meaningful rain. A quarter inch at a time is useless!!! Ah well...
Will it rain again with gusto in Blue Springs, ever??? One wonders sometimes.
The pattern is finally falling apart. The flow across Canada is fascinating during the next week. But, is it just on the computers or real? We will know soon.
Posted by: StormDog at August 9, 2006 6:52 PM
Hi Gary! You may not know right now...but I want you to give me your thoughts. I live in Pleasanton KS.... 60 miles south of Overland Park....we are in the middle of roofing our house and we have our roof and even attic exposed to the elements. Do we need to hurry and get paper over our roof tonight or will the rain hold off until thursday afternoon? I have seen clusters of storms alittle south of us and I am concerned they will make there way to us before morning. Thank you! Monica
I think it is obvious now, but no rain until late Thursday or Thursday night. Hopefully it will rain then.
Posted by: Monica at August 9, 2006 8:11 PM
AGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! I CAN'T TAKE IT ANYMORE! I'M TURNING INTO A PIECE OF JERKEY! Thanks for that small indulgence, but (as appropriate as it may be here in Kansas) I feel like the Wicked Witch of the East, melting, melting, melting.
With that said, I have heard so many people saying that whenever it's really nasty hot during the summer it's usually follwed by a cold winter. Statistically does that hold any water (or steam as it may be now)? I've lived here for almost 8 years, but since my brain has melted I can't remember much before lunch today.
There is nothing to this. If it is a very hot summer, the winter can be anything. Statistics show this. A brand new weather pattern will develop by November and it is unknown what it will be at this moment.
Posted by: Jennifer at August 9, 2006 9:12 PM
The GFS is trying to develop a cold pool in northern Canada via cross-polar flow, but the trend of lower heights along the West Coast continues to keep the heights above average in the plains. The ridge must be closer to the coast in order to get a solid cold front down here. The jet stream is still far to the north and Canada continues above average. The models continue to be all over the place in the extended time periods.
The weather pattern is in major transition. But, how will it affect our weather? Maybe not much as it is still August. So, we are going to be susceptable to more recycling of this heat for another two weeks or so. We need to get a cold front through the Rockies, which is still not showing up.
Posted by: Devin at August 9, 2006 10:05 PM
Gary, when was the last time (year) that Kansas City experienced as many days of 100 degrees and above as we've experienced this summer?
It was only 3 years ago. In August, 2003 we had a major heat wave. It was 100 or higher 9 days in August and one in July that summer for a total of 10 days 100 or higher in 2003.
Today will be our 9th day of 100 or higher this summer. I see another one on Sunday, and then hopefully that is it.
Posted by: Dina at August 9, 2006 10:18 PM
What has happened to the 3 degree warranty giveaways? I noticed there were a couple of nights in July & now in August where you have been within 3 degrees...have shown "the pick" graphics on the screen, but no name has been called. Has this feature been disconnected? Should I send in any more postcards? Just wondering.....
Heartland Bank pulled out as our sponsor suddenly. So, we are looking for a new sponsor, and a new prize. It should happen very soon.
Posted by: Phyllis at August 9, 2006 10:30 PM
Wow, I just saw your forecast. 106? Wow, that is nuts! You are forecasting hotter, and NWS is going cooler. They must think there is going to be more cloud cover or something! So far, you have been right on the button.
Why do you think it will be so hot on Sunday? NWS is only forecasting 96 and you are forecasting 104.
Please do not get me wrong, I do not mean to always compare your forecasts or slam NWS. The major reason why I compare the two is to see how accurate you really are. In other words, it is like a survey. If you hit within three degrees, and they are not even close to where you are, then I can see that you really are the most accurate in town. I realize they often see things from a different point of view. If you were to go to the NWS you would change their thoughts and they would see what you see. :-) Keep up the great work! I hope we do not get quite as hot, and I guess if your forecast is off this time it is probably a good thing. The only thing I hope for tomorrow night is some major rain!
I don't mind taking the test every single time. But, man, if I am ever wrong oh boy.
We think Sunday has all of the ingredients to warm up again for a day. But, whenever it is one day squeezed in the middle it sometimes doesn't quite happen. So, we'll see. We should know more tomorrow.
Posted by: Brian at August 9, 2006 10:32 PM
I was looking at the CPC's 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks & at the US Hazards Assessment on that site... In their discussion, they say, again, troughs in the Pac NW & NE, with a huge ridge over the Central US. What are the chances that this heat will actually abate during the next couple weeks around here? ...Or is it still looking like more of the same?
I'm just happy I'll be getting a respite up in Minnesota from Fri-Mon.
Those forecasts are very risky now that the pattern may be in massive change status. So, let's see how this looks in a few days.
Posted by: Drew at August 9, 2006 11:24 PM