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Gary,

My friend is training for the Breast Cancer 3-day and is scheduled to walk 18 miles on Saturday and 15 miles on Sunday. She is planning to walk the metro area (Johnson County).

She's concerned about the possibility of rain on Saturday. Does it look like it's going to rain on the weekend?

Thanks.
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Suzanne,

There is a chance on Saturday, but not on Sunday. The best chance is during the morning Saturday.

Gary

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Gary..GREAT illistration! I learned a bit more today...you can see by the isobar kinks very clearly, and the wind shift lines are apparent too! I did not know that.
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Scott,

I am so glad the illistration made it clear. Sometimes it is more simple than you think. Now, what will it really look like Friday afternoon? And, these clouds aren't clearing so today will struggle to get even close to our forecast high.

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Gary; Last night was a replay of the whole summer. Thunderstorms to the north and west and thunderstorms to the south and west and none of them reaching Kansas City because we apparently still have a ridge of high pressure right over us. Which leads me to disagree with your assessment of last week that the weather pattern has changed. I don't believe it has.
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Steve,

Oh, it has changed. There is no doubt about it. But, we still can't break the jinx.

Gary

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As I did not stay up to the early morning to track that complex, I don't know if it made it here, but I can confirm that waking up this morning, it had rained over the night time or early morning in Lee's Summit.

This would not have been typical in the old pattern.
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Scott,

Yes, but it only rained a very little bit. The latest models are very strange. It still looks like a cross between the day we had all of the thunderstorms on the day I thought it would be 106 crossed with last Sunday evening. So, maybe it will all come together.

Gary

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Ok...looking at the models now..yes, we will get wet, and I am only expecting 96 for a high now due to lots of moisture coming in and with the winds aloft, I expect to see some mixing and clouds...who knows...we will see.

Gary, looking at the models..you see the HUGE low near Alaska moving down! This must push the stream way down in the next week.
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Yes Scott, we are down to 93 right now and the entire pattern is in massive transition. We could have a rather significant cold front within 10 days.

Gary

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Gary, thanks for your answer about long-range forecasts in a past blog. The CPC has a new set of forecasts out today and they are still very bullish on a warm winter. I just hope we can get some moisture to go with it.
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Rob,

Don't worry about a warm winter yet. There is a 50% chance they will be wrong. And a 50% chance they are right. I could come on and say we will have a cold and snowy winter and base it on who knows what and say there is a 50% chance of it being right. What good is this?

So, the real pattern will set up in October and November. So, be patient.

Gary

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Gary and Steve: The "pattern" may have changed, but that doesn't guarantee the chaos that replaced it is any better, nor does it guarantee an improvement in rainfall - New England experienced a 6 year drought when I was growing up in the 60s.
So I am skeptical concerning rain chances in Blue Springs - oh sure, a third of a whopping inch at a time, big deal - the drought will continue through and into September, unless something major intervenes.
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Doggy,

We continue to fail every test, unless you live about 50 miles north. It has been raining and not that far away. Trenton is up to over 6 inches this month already after a very dry summer. So, there is hope. We will take another test Friday and Saturday.

Dog

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Hey Steve. That is a classic Condition Called the Tonginoxie Split. I live in De Soto Kansas, Tonginoxie is about 20 Miles to my Northwest. It is Called the tonginoxie slit because time after time Storms Come in and when they get to Tonginoxie they split in two. Some Storms Go to the South, Some go North and move around us and Reform east of Kansas City. Why it does this no one knows. But it it happens time and time again. But this is an old Classic Condion.

Steve Newport
De Soto Kansas
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Steve,

Actually, the Tonganoxie split isn't real. It was made up years ago by Dan Henry. No matter where you live it will seem that storms will split west of you. It obviously doesn't always happen.

*****************
I will stick to 96 with the rain coming in a bit later and dropping a bit south of your 6PM forecast.
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Scott,

If it is sunny and it gets close to 96 then it will be 101.

Did you see what happened this evening? The heat just surged in.

Gary

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Just seen your weather forcast, neat display of the temp. contrast from north to south tomorrow! Looks like St. Joseph could get very wet again! Hopefully everybody will get hit this time.
Nick in St. Joe.
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Nick,

Hopefully it spreads south later today.

Gary

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Gary,
Wow!!! That microburst in Liberty was something else last night. We got it in the Shoal Creek area. My wife woke me up. It looked like the maple tree in our front was about to snap over and rain was extremely heavy and blowing more horizontally than vertically. It knocked a few things over in our yard. It even moved my mower a foot or two.
It just seemed to come out of nowhere. How do these things occur?
Also, how much rain should we expect overnight in the Northland?
Thanks!
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Matt,

I will have to analyze the thunderstorm when I come to work later on, but I remember the small thunderstorms developing near Liberty around midnight. One of them likely calapsed (fell apart) and then all of the momentum of the rain rushing to the ground likely created the microburst.

Gary

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Gary, I have a theory and want your input into it. I live in Holden, MO which is about 50 miles SE of KC. It seems that time after time when big thunderstorms (I'm talking mainly severe weather) come toward us from the north, they almost always split when they reach the metro. This seems to happen about 99% of the time. This does not necesarily happen with showers, just with storms. Is there some possibility that a metro area can cause a storm to break down?

I've seen it happen time and again. Please let me know your thoughts.

Terry
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Terry,

I am sure it has happened more lately down your way, but it doesn't always happen. No matter where you live it will feel like thunderstorms are splitting and missing you. But, in reality it is just the nature of thunderstorms. You will get hit as often as everyone else does, although it may not seem that way since you are rooting each one on.

Gary

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I understand the northern part of Missouri is actually seeing a liquid form of precipitation rumor has it is called rain. Thats great for them. The rest of your viewing area east of the state line has officially slipped another notch on the drought monitor and is now classified by the climate prediction center as D3 (Extreme) Drought. Please tell me this set up will give us a little bit of rain south of 70--south of 50 highway would be even better but I know better than to get that hopeful. Another thing, how about bringing back the drought watch, I know most of us are at least 10 inches below normal now and counting.
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Mike,

Great idea. I will be doing the drought watch tonight if the rain is still missing us as it seems like it may very well try to do.

Gary

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I remember a few years back when near October 23rd We got 8 inches of Heavy wet snow that broke a lot of trees because there was still a lot leaves on the trees. Im not saying it will do that this October. Im just wondering if any one has any data on what was kind of summer it was before that October.
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Steve,

We can check, but it won't matter. Every year is different. A unique pattern sets up every fall.

I would love to have another "Ocober Surprise"

Gary
Gary

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Gary, I am very sorry to hear Wendy is gone. I enjoyed watching her on TV. I saw her one time when you came to my granddaughter's grade school. Wendy was very lucky to have you as her friend and caregiver.

JoAnn

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Gary, Our thoughts and prayers are with you as you grieve over the loss of your precious dog, Windy. We lost our beloved Charly in December, and I know how heartbreaking this can be. Remember there are people who appreciate you and your caring ways with animals and people. Looking forward to your return (you are the only weather forecaster I trust :)

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Gary,

We were saddened to hear about Windy! Even though we never met her, she was in our hearts as fellow dog lovers! We had to put our beagle, Kacey, to sleep in Sept. when she was only 9 and a half! You were so lucky to get so many good years out of her. Thank God that you have the other 2 dogs...that will really help you. We had another dog for 5 months before Kacey died and Riley helped us so much. We are still waiting for Riley's pet picture to get on the air! She is the cutest beagle you could ever know! Stay strong and know that there are so many people in Kansas City grieving along with you! Our dogs are angels to us!

The Mize Family...Riley-Dog, too!

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As a third-generation newspaper editor and publisher, I found Windy's frequent presence on the (WDAF)set to be hoaky in your early days here.

Your sincere personality and obvious love for your dog and job has gradually caused me to turn to you first...not because you are accurate (and you are)... because you are human.

The way the news tonight touched the wife and I made us realize you are like extended family. We're sure we're not alone...and I hope you sense how much your viewers care. Our wish is that you get some comfort from that.

Kim Sexton

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Gary,

So sorry about Windy. I remember when you left channel 4 and they wouldn't let you appear for an extended length of time but your Windy wasn't a part of the agreement. Terrific. Enjoy you so very very much. You are the very best in the midwest.

Now in the northwest, my son Mark Heyka is the best at KECI in Missoula, Montana.

I am so very proud of him too.

Anyhow, Best wishes to you and your other two companions, Breezy & Stormy.

Sincerely,

Karen Heyka-Lillian

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My mother and I were very saddened to learn of Windy's death. She was a cute and smart dog and anyone who has ever loved a dog knows the pain of losing them. Our deepest heartfelt sympathy to you.

Dear Gary: Like so many others, I was saddened to hear about Windy tonight. My heart goes out to you, and hope you find comfort in all the people who are writing that loved Windy so much. I know Stormy & Breezy will be grieving for her too. We are all thinking of you!

Gary,

I am so sorry about Windy. I have 2 dogs and I kow I could never see me parting with them for many more years.
You who loves dogs will get yourself another to take Windy's place

Michele

We are so sorry that Wendy has passed. We have been with her and you from the very beginning. We love you all (Wendy, Stormy, and Breezy). Our family have pets as well. We just lost our dog, she was 17 years and 3 weeks. And it is a big loss of a very close family member. We have said prayers all day for you and your loved ones. Wish we could help more. Love you all very much.

Gary,

We are so sorry to hear of your loss of your precious friend. All animal lovers that have lost their pet friends feel your pain.
Our prayers are with you as you grieve your loss. Kansas City will miss her, too.

Hi Gary,

So sorry to hear about Windy. She was a great dog and I loved watching her visit the kids. I have a shelty, he is 13 and has been fighting cancer for two years. I don't know how much time I have left with him, but I know it will be very hard to let him go. God bless you and thanks for all you do.

Jimmye

Dear Gary:
I met you in 1997 at the Full Employment Council when you came to give Phyllis Ray-Taylor the Crystal Apple Award. I am the person who nominated her. In 2000 my cat Rocky was one of Windy's Pet Picks. Rocky was 18 at the time. I had to put him down in August last year, 2005. He was two months away from his 23rd birthday. I was so sorry to hear about Windy. We will not forget her as we will never forget Rocky. Take care. Linda Morales

I am very sorry to hear about your loss. Windy was a cool dog and I know you cared about her deeply. Boris and Foxxy (cats) and I are thinking of you.