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Afternoon rain
Good afternoon,
 ESP LIVE at 2:20 PM today
Above is the radar image from ESP at 2:20 this afternoon. The rain with embedded thunderstorms has lined up just north of Kansas City. This should come as no surprise as we had expected the heaviest rain to fall north of I-435. So, will it shift southward? Notice the cold front, or rather stationary front near 435 south extending east crossing I-70 near Grain Valley. That line of echoes is just the front where the wind shift lies. And you can see it below on the latest surface map.
Click to enlarge (Surface map this afternoon)
With the front near Kansas City we have to watch for some thunderstorm development this evening. But, more likely thunderstorms will form between 10 PM and 2 AM near and just north of this weak frontal boundary. The main cold front will also be approaching from Nebraska and both of these features with weak flow aloft and an abundance of moisture sets the region up for excessive rainfall. But where will it fall? The center of attention could be near Salina, Kansas City, or Columbia later tonight and Saturday. I just don't have a feel for it yet and it is driving me a bit nuts. I would like to see some evidence of it developing before I pin point the location of heaviest rain. Bottom line: We are still struggling to get it to rain in some of the driest spots.
Everyone.......do you rain dance this evening! At least it is Friday. If we have any exciting developments we will blog later on.
Gary
Posted by at August 18, 2006 2:26 PM
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Hello Mr. Lezak,
How many rounds of thunderstorms do we have the potential to have?
One round seems to be moving in fairly quickly from topeka.
What are the chances of severe weather?
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Ben,
Not much severe weather, but let's get a first round before I have any confidence in rounds two and three.
Gary
Posted by: Ben Tracy at August 18, 2006 3:05 PM
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Heyyyy Gary, The other night when you said we've had rain every week since Feb., I looked at my poor yard then wondered how it missed out. Why is the rain always going around our area? Enjoy watching your weather every night. Hugs and kisses for Stormy, Windy and Breezy. Kind Regards, Laura King Raytown MO
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Laura,
Amazingly, Raytown has also had rain 24 straight weeks. The problem is many of those time the rain was very light. This has been a very strange year.
Gary
Posted by: Laura at August 18, 2006 4:01 PM
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Gary - At 1638, storms to our north, storms to our south. H-m-m-m-m-m-m-m????
Dog
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Doggy,
This will end soon. Yeah, sure.
Gary
Posted by: StormDog at August 18, 2006 4:39 PM
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Ahhh...its coming to fruition. The RUC/sfc/spc/sat analysis is coming in the way I thought. The proof should be in the pudding tomorrow morning. Next forecast I will work on rain totals..that should finish off the remaining strands of hair on my head!
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Scott,
There is nothing classic about this weekend. Man oh man, this is complex.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at August 18, 2006 4:48 PM
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Yes, as seen on the radar, and confirmed by the SPC...outflow along the stationary front should make things interesing...
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1838.html
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Posted by: Scott at August 18, 2006 4:55 PM
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