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Tough to tell. I like more of the vort north of us in this...but we are in a pretty interesting spot for this. I will know more tomorrow.

Look at the CMC with the 500 vort in respect to Invest 97L. Look at the last frame of the loop

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2006082412&field=500mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

Rut roh Houston.

SCOTT:
Interesting model run... a few more like that, and I imagine gas prices will start to climb...
Jamie

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I just wanted to say that I am sorry to hear about Windy's passing. In all appearances, Gary, you seem to be wonderful dog owner with an amazing amount of compassion. I know your other puppies must be mourning as well.

I also wanted to tell you all as a weather team something that might encouarge you, and make you smile. I teach my daughter at home and she is studying weather in her science right now. One of the experiments is to watch different weather casts to see who is the better weather forecaster. As any good loyal weather watcher would do, I said we don't need to do an experiment to see who is better, we already know who is better. So we here in our home think that Gary and the gang are the greatest, most humble, most accurate weather forecasters. My daughter agreed and we moved on to the next section of study. My daughter also said this morning without watching the weather that she thinks rain is coming because of the way the clouds are setting up today. :} So thanks for doing your job well and having fun while you all do it!

ANNA:
Thank you for the nice comments! We are glad we have two faithful viewers in you and your daughter!
Jamie

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Hello Mrs. Jarosik,
I noticed that NOAA has us in a slight risk of severe storms for late tonight into tomorrow morning.
Do you see a chance of having severe storms in the KC area early tomorrow.

Have a great night
-Ben-

HI, BEN!
That slight risk is actually for the overnight period tonight into Friday morning. If these storms get going, they will be high-based thunderstorms... with the potential for large hail/strong winds. I do not think it will be a wide-spread severe event... but the risk of some isolated damage reports is there.
Jamie

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A couple weeks ago, Gary said that the fall pattern may be setting up in two-three weeks. Do you see any indication of that happeing yet?

DWIGHT:
The new pattern will set up IN the fall... not until the end of October/beginning of November. Then we will have to wait through one full cycle to get a real idea of WHAT that pattern is!
Jamie

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Good Evening. Trying to decide if we should head to Jefferson City tomorrow to ride the Katy Trail over the weekend but don't want to end up sitting in a hotel watching it rain. When is the front expected to pass thru there & do you have any idea how much rain they will get?

Any info would be appreciated.

TM:
The front is a slow-mover... with a series of waves riding through all weekend long. So there may be some breaks in the rain... but we have chances Saturday and Sunday. Not the best weather to be out riding in.
Jamie

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Hey Jamie,

I'll be back out in San Jose next week, So I'm sure that while I am gone the weather will become very active with storms every night with cooler temps in the day...just saying.. :)

Wow, I noticed that Gary got over 600 posts on his blog about windy.. that is amazing and goes to show how important gary and co. are to KC. We are proud to have you guys as our weather team.

DAVE:
Thanks for your nice comments about Gary and Windy! I, too, was amazed at how many blog posts we got! This on top of several hundred emails, phone calls, flowers, etc. It really warms my heart! :)

The latest data tonight is rather exciting over the weekend... and possibly into next week, too! Let's not get too excited, but I can't wait till you leave town! haha... just kidding...
Jamie

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I forgot to mention earlier this week that after the rain that we had in St. Joe big, white toadstools have poped up EVERYWHERE! I remember this happening last year about the same time of year. So if you guys down south get a good rain see if you have some of these things comeing up.
Nick in St. Joe!

NICK:
Thanks for the interesting info! Here's to hoping for toadstools! ;)
Jamie

Well, like others, first, sorry to hear about Windy! I have had that experience when I was younger, when I lost a very close companion, traveled with me when me and my mom moved back and forth between Iowa and Minnesota a few times before heading down to Arizona. We couldn't keep him in an apartment, so he had to go to Washington with my Grandpa, to which I never saw again as he was diagnosed with a tumor the size of a baseball, but he was there for me when I needed him, as was Windy for you and everyone around her that was touched by her presence.

I wanted to share this, I was watching this and I got a good catch of this animated GIF before it really showed the build up and then split before hitting the Blue Springs and Grain Valley area, to rebuild East of here. Ugh, another time something with potential goes down the tubes, but here it is:
http://www.grainvalleyweather.com/images/what.gif

It never ceases to amaze me this chronicle of the disappearing cell, hehe, until next cell, will be staying tuned, thanks!

-Matt

Is it just me, or does it seem that the rain is dancing around KC some?

....LONDON (Reuters) -- Oil leapt more than $1 on Friday as a storm brewing in the Caribbean threatened to sweep through the U.S. Gulf next week and menace oil supplies yet to recover from last year's hurricanes...

Good morning Jamie :)

Thanks for letting us know how Gary is doing. I'm so amazed at all the wonderful caring people we have here in KC and around.

I was looking at the forcast for Saturday and we are supposed to be having a family cook out in the evening. Wasn't sure if I needed a back up plan or not. Or I could just leave our plans as they are, then it will probably rain :) So if anyone around Independence wants rain, I won't change my plans ;)

Have a good day!

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Last night I got a bit of a suprise. After about 2 A.M. a thunderstorm started to move into St. Joe and it turned out to be quite strong with VERY HEAVY RAIN, rather strong winds( possibly up to 50 M.P.H.), vivid cloud to ground lightning, and even " sleet to pea sized" HAIL!( I know that "sleet sized hail" is not an official term but it seemed the best way to describe the look of it.) Just thought I would share that with you.
Nick, happy in St. Joe!

NICK:
We thought thunderstorms would develop just west of us late last night. I, too, woke up to thunder around 2:30am. It is scary to go to bed after forecasting rain to develop (when there aren't any signs of it)... but it is great to be awoken by thunder once it does! ;)
Jamie

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We have a big event that was planned outdoors tomorrow night. Should we cancel it? It was to be on the UMKC campus.

CAROL:
There is a VERY good chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. It probably won't rain the WHOLE time... but with the set-up we have... it's almost impossible to say when the dry periods will be.
Jamie

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Looks like quite the rainy pattern. The subtropical moisture streaming in on the jet from the south [as seen on the WV] and the midlevel streams dumping right on us...very nice.

SCOTT:
We think it could be a pretty wet weekend... I mean, come on... how can it NOT be??? This early evening may end up being rather nice around these parts... but later tonight we'll watch for some heavier rains to set up. Our northern viewing area is already getting some severe weather as I type this!
Jamie

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Where's the rain in south Raytown? :) We've barely gotten a sprinkle here all day. I work in downtown KCMO. I walked past a window between 3 and 3:30 and it was raining to beat the band.
Kristi

KRISTI:
You should get something by the end of the weekend!!!! :)
Jamie

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August 25, 2006 6:42 p.m.

Jamie, we live in the very heart of Knob Noster, MO, and we have received almost .40 inch of rain today. So I don't know who came up with the 1.53 inch figure that was quoted to you as being received in Knob today - maybe they live in the county somewhere.

HI, ANNA!
That reading was actually taken in Sedalia... about 20 miles from you. Thunderstorms can, at times, bring heavy rain to one neighborhood and not another. So typically, across an area... the totals will vary greatly! Thanks for your report!!
Jamie

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Loving the set up...nice lift, huge CAPE/instability, waiting on the LLJ to make it perfect. Looked at the sig torn/hail composites...we are perfect. This should be a fun chasing night. The hail composite is highest in a small circle right over KC! And..with the stalling front, looks like we should get some nice rain coverage. Look out for some flash flooding!

My little E storm is coming along nicely too...lets hope sheer does its job, or this will come into the Gulf in a bad mood. I am thinking Alabama/Pan Handle arrival. Oddly, it will be steered there by the next big front coming through next Thurs or so.