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Cold front approaches.......Rain?
Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid 7 PM Wednesday)
Click to enlarge (Surface pattern valid 1 AM Thursday morning)
Above are two maps that just came in with the new data. Look at the first map above. This is the 500 mb flow (18,000 feet up). Find the X in Kansas. This is the vorticity maximum, what we call the "vort max". I think it is the leftover center of the upper low that has been spinning over New Mexico for days. So, this could be real and a big player in our weather during the next 36 hours. The second map shows the weakening frontal boundary. By 1 AM tomorrow night it is south of Kansas City, but with the upper level storm approaching the heavy thunderstorms would likely be north of the front which places us in the prime position to have widespread rain. There will be a zone that has over 3 inches of rain.
The GFS has the maximum rainfall just north of Kansas City Wednesday night. It will be interesting how it all pans out. MUCH COOLER air should move in for Thursday and Friday.
Have a great day!
Gary
Posted by at August 1, 2006 10:36 AM
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I'm confused, is todays forecast for Monday or is it Tuesday's forcast for 103.
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Richard,
It hit 103 yesterday and it will be close to 103 today, and perhaps Wednesday as well.
Gary
Posted by: Richard Rogers at August 1, 2006 11:52 AM
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Gary,
National Hurricane Center has announced a change in their prediction of severe hurricane season. Is this a part of the weather pattern change you see in the coming months?
Dave
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Dave,
So far the hurricane season is very quiet. Let's see how it evolved during the next three weeks. The tropics are a bit different than our westerlies here in the mid-latitudes.
Gary
Posted by: Dave at August 1, 2006 1:52 PM
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Hey Gary, my mom is coming to town next weekend (the 10th). While we all started in the midwest, she hasn't had to deal with high humidity in 20 years since my family moved to Northern California. Any idea what the long range looks like for that weekend?
Thanks
Jennifer
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Jennifer,
This mornings data cooled it off for that weekend. But, confidence is still low.
Gary
Posted by: Jennifer at August 1, 2006 3:33 PM
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Good afternoon Gary :)
I had to chuckle about the forcast. You have said for about a week now we were going to be in the triple digits for a few days with a cool down by the end of the week. It was kind of funny how a couple of the other channels were saying that this heat wave was coming and was staying longer than what you predicted a week ago. And NOW their forcasts are more like what you have said all along. This why we think you all are so awsome, you forcast, you stick to it, and it's accurate. Now if you can give me a white Christmas this year that would be great ;)
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Donna,
I will be working on that white Christmas! Thanks!
Gary
Posted by: Donna at August 1, 2006 3:53 PM
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Gary,
I have heard on the radio that there is a chance for sever weather tommorow night. Now coming from the radio i know that is accurate. What do you predict the outcome for severe weather is. Is it none or is there a slight chance.
THanks
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Jeff,
With all of this heat the first thunderstorms that form will have a strong potential to produce severe weather, but way up north. A very slight chance here.
Gary
Posted by: Jeff at August 1, 2006 4:04 PM
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Gary,
Is it too soon to make a determination on what KC can expect in precip and temperatures this Fall or can you give us a hint?
Thanks,
Chuck
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Chuck,
I believe no one really knows until at least early November. This is according to my theory. So, yes it is way too early, but we do know it will be turning cooler in September thank goodness.
Gary
Posted by: Chuck Luchen at August 1, 2006 4:23 PM
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E-mails circulating claiming Mars will be at its closest end of August and will appear as large as our Moon.
Sounds like e-mail trash, however if true would be spectacular to see.
I could forward it to you if you wish. Shows nice photograph of Mars.
Enjoy your segment each night.
Bill
HEY, BILL:
That email WAS true a few years back. I think it happened in 2003... but the email is still going around as if it is happening THIS year.
Jamie
Posted by: Bill Cary at August 3, 2006 11:05 AM
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