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Ernesto strengthening and our weather
Good morning everyone,
Tropical Storm Ernesto may become a hurricane today. Ernesto is over the Gulf stream with higher water temperatures and it appears to be strengthening fast early today. Below you can almost see the eye developing.
Click to enlarge 7:50 AM this morning
Ernesto is going to produce a lot of rain in the east this weekend. For us we have a strange upper low forming that will combine with the eastern storm and form a strange blocked up weather pattern. It now appears the upper low near our region will stay north of Kansas City. This will limit our chance of rain and could bring us some great holiday weekend weather. Let's watch this closely and see what happens with today's computer model trends.
 Click to enlarge (GFS 500 flow valid Saturday night)
Above, you can see the upper low is north of Kansas City. This would place us in the "dry slot" of the storm which coincides with tremendously sinking air and will allow us to have a nice weekend despite a storm being near by. If the upper low drops into Kansas it would likely become cloudy and quite cool with some rain. Right now it appears it will track across Iowa.
Have a great day. Let's track Ernesto and our own storm as it is a somewhat interesting day across the United States.
Gary
Posted by at August 31, 2006 8:03 AM
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Gary...the NAM shows it on top of our head. Are you trending to the GFS now?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_500_072l.gif
Ernie is quite the storm. Tough to figure out.
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Scott,
Ernie is strengthening fast right now and may be a hurricane later this evening.
The GFS is more in line with the other models so I lean heavily in that direction. Major changes keep happnening further down the line. around 240 hours and beyond.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at August 31, 2006 12:21 PM
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