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I will blog later as we will know more about tonight' set up around 3 PM or so. In the mean time we can find the weak wind shift on the south side of Kansas City. Clouds keep developing along and north of this boundary with thunderstorms increasing well to the north. Could we be left dry tonight, or will it become exciting? I am concerned. Let's wait until 3 or 4 PM and see how everything is lining up.
Posted by at August 18, 2006 10:25 AM
Gary, do you think there is still a better than average chance that North Missouri (specifically the Chillicothe area) will receive a significant rainfall? We had a nice shower about an hour ago, but nothing of substance yet.
The Chillicothe area is on the edge of a nice area of rain right now. It is hard to tell at this moment but if it shifts slightly south then you are in it.
Posted by: John Marcolla at August 18, 2006 10:40 AM
I was one of the unfortunate folks who was affected by last night's microburst in Liberty. I turned in for the night after you gave your 10 pm forecast, and the ESP radar showed only two little echoes SW of KC which didn't look threatening, so given your forecast and the radar depiction I figured a quiet night was in store (my weather radio was off). I was totally stunned to be awakened after midnight by the intense blue flashes of power lines arcing and transformers exploding as the microburst approached my residence from the SW. I estimate the storm only lasted a couple of minutes, although I didn't clock its precise duration due to the power outage. What an unusual storm, very little thunder and lightning, small in size, yet it packed torrential rain and unleashed that microburst. Gary, any estimate on how strong the winds were to snap those power poles like that? The storm wouldn't have been such a surprise if it had developed during daylight hours where people could have observed the growing cumulonimbus cloud and watched the storm approach. Strange weather indeed.
This is quite a story. I may read part of it on the air. The winds must have been close to 70 mph or stronger. The thunderstorm was very small, but it had a good updraft, and obviously a downdraft (the microburst).
Posted by: Pat Trudel at August 18, 2006 12:02 PM
There was a very interesting comment by one of the previous bloggers about how the storm systems seem to fall apart when they get to the KC metro area.
In 1996 I lived in Austin, TX. It was a very, very dry summer (driest since the 1930s for them) that year and it seemed like every time there was a big storm headed towards us, it fell apart. Does the heat of the metro area have something to do with that? I know when I grew up on the coast in New England we always had the moderating ocean temperatures which prevented most severe storms from hitting us on the shore. I was wondering your thoughts on this?
I really don't think so. It just seems like it. If you were to pick a place in the middle of Kansas and build a house there. I believe you would think the same thing as most thunderstorms will miss you. But, not all of them.
Posted by: Matt at August 18, 2006 12:25 PM
DO YOU THINK SAINT JOSEPH WILL GET OVER AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST KEEPS GOING TOWARDS MARYVILLE.
P.S. BOOMER SOONER
The band is going right through the south side of St. Joseph now.
Posted by: BRIAN at August 18, 2006 12:39 PM
What are the chances for decent rains around Sibley??? We sure could use a good rain event!
Keep up the good work!
It is a struggle. The chance is pretty good but so far nothing.
Posted by: Kinley at August 18, 2006 12:59 PM
PLEASE!!! Give us rain! :)
I like the rain with lightning embedded too, but at this point, a nice soaking would be nice. I hope that 5 in. forecast you gave would sink south for us all. Not only that, but stall a little bit, how's that sound?
Sounds great to me. But, let's get 5 hundreths first.
Posted by: GVWX at August 18, 2006 1:20 PM
Are you sure our crazy weather pattern is over? I thought that if it was over, we would see more rain? It just seems like we never get the rain we need. We get some, but not what is forecast, or at least wide-spread. The weather service keeps going back and fourth on their forecast, at least you are sticking with what you "beleive" will happen. Still, I hope we get some rain!
Let's just hope that the GFS that just came out has a chance. 5 inches of rain on Sunday, but it is the only model that has it. Things may be changing fast this weekend, or the frustrations will continue.
Posted by: Brian at August 18, 2006 1:43 PM
G-Man: I'm going to cut the grass and put down fertilizer this afternoon. IS IT GOING TO RAIN?!?!?!
I don't know how this continues, but it isn't over yet. We are thinking we are in a nice location for later tonight.
Posted by: Ed at August 18, 2006 1:58 PM
I think most of this will come a bit later this afternoon..looking at the RUC and some soundings, including Helocity/Lift etc...I think we are ok...but must wait for the stationary front to sag just a bit, and break though some cap. Patience... I think it will come.
Interesting SW push from the subtropical low.
It is really a tough day of patience. We are going to watch the new data closely. The GFS has a storm here on Sunday. The NAM almost does.
Posted by: Scott at August 18, 2006 2:13 PM
Hi. Gary sorry to hear about Windy. I really fell your sorrow. We had to have 2 dogs put down last year. 1 was 17 years old and the other 15 years old. thinking of you. in this time.
Posted by: kathy basler at August 23, 2006 8:30 PM
I send my prayers to you in your time of loss. Our pets are much more than pets they are our confort, our conpanion our best friend. I have gone through this myself and know it will be a while before you get past this day.
The Swift Family
Posted by: Leslie Swift at August 23, 2006 8:37 PM
I'M REALLY SORRY TO HERE ABOUT WINDY. MY THOUGHTS ARE WTH YOU.I KNOW WHAT IT'S LKE TO LOSE A BEST FRIEND. I LOST MY DOG TYLER LAST YEAR AFTER HAVING HIM FOR 9 YEARS.
Posted by: BRAD WILLIAMSON at August 24, 2006 2:05 PM
Heartfelt sympathy to you in your loss of Windy. I like so many other viewers always enjoyed seeing her with you on TV. Pets are always there anxious and happy to see you when you return, I know you will feel her loss for a long time, but I am sure you will remember all the good times with her. God Bless!
Posted by: Ruby Perdue at August 24, 2006 3:32 PM
Gary, Our thoughts and prayers are with you in your time of loss. My husband and I have lost pets also and know how difficult it is. We remember all of the love and support our pets give and the happy times we have. As you, we will miss seeing Windy on the weather report.
Posted by: Carol Cronenbold at August 24, 2006 4:53 PM
Gary; We share your sorrow over the loss of your beloved Windy as our hearts still ache over the loss of our own beloved dogs. I am sure there are many prayers being said for you and Windy by those who understand your pain and loss and I know no words can express just how much my heart goes out to you. Our dog Tilly looks very much like your Windy which made seeing her that much more enjoyable.
May God Bless and Keep You!
Posted by: Linda Moore at August 24, 2006 11:58 PM