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Hot With a Side of Thunderstorms
The heat is building back into the area... upper 90s today... and over 100 degrees forecasted for Sunday (we are going 104). We will be watching an approaching COLD FRONT Sunday afternoon/evening. It looks like it will be just north of KC when we reach peak heating. Here is the NAM (WRF) model for early Sunday evening:
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With that front comes the chance of a few thunderstorms. You can see we are in a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather:
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If thunderstorms DO form, the biggest threat will be damaging winds... so we will watch it for you! Again, this is for Sunday afternoon/evening! Monday/Tuesday is also tricky... I think the chance of a few thunderstorms is there either day. And any clouds/rain will do a number on temperatures.
Enjoy the evening, and I will update you tomorrow!
Posted by at August 5, 2006 4:01 PM
Cloud cover shall foil Gary's hottest day. It will be 103. [I know the feeling].
PS..I give the GRC one more week before falling apart. Tropics are begining to come alive.
Clouds would be the big spoiler here... we'll see what happens...
Posted by: Scott at August 5, 2006 4:37 PM
Can you talk with the folks at the NWS? You said in your forecast that the heat index would be 105-110 tomorrow. In their discussion, they said it was below adv. level. They are only forecasting a high of 100, and you are 4 degrees higher. You have been nearly 100% accurate over this past heat wave. I am not saying they are not accurate, but I think they need to look at your forecasts, and move it up. What I do not understand is why they do not have an exessive heat warning out for the area for tomorrow! To that end, I think they need to get a clue! I wish you folks could issue the watches and warnings, because NWS always waits until the last minute. Oh well, I depend on your forecasts becasue you guys are always within three degrees. :-)
Today the heat index is 105... but our dew point is 69. Tomorrow, the dew point should be lower... so the HI may not be THAT high. We have been forecasting a high temp of 104... so the range of heat index I used is 105-110. It might be more like 105-108 or something like that.
Posted by: Brian at August 5, 2006 5:26 PM
For Brian, there needs to be three hot days in a row for an excessive heat warning. It looks like a heat advisory might be needed though.
Is the chance of rain any better? It would really be appreciated! As well as cooler temperatures!:)
You are right about the excessive heat warning. I am sorry I didn't get that detailed in my answer. We could see spotty t-storms Sunday through Tuesday! BUT you know what spotty means... not everyone will see rain. :(
Posted by: David at August 5, 2006 5:57 PM
As a native Kansas Citian I have a theory on our ever changing weather. This time of year its usually hot! But don't fret, sometime within the next 6-8 weeks it will cool off and we will get some much needed rain. After that it will get colder and we will probably have some snow. Then we will all be looking forward to spring again! Just havin' a little fun, I'll take summertime heat over snow any day, (sorry Gary). You guys do a great job. Send some rain Olathe's way! Stay cool, Greg.
Thanks for the insight. I hate snow... but I hate heat MORE! I am a thunderstorm-lover... we'll see if we can't get a few going this evening. Still a SLIGHT chance...
Posted by: Greg at August 5, 2006 10:24 PM