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 August 30, 2006

Labor Day weekend weather

Good morning everyone!

There continues to be significant differences on how the weekend storm will form. If it develops north of Kansas City and ends up northeast of us we may have one brief band of showers and thunderstorms scattered as they move through early Saturday and then a beautiful weekend. If it forms northwest of us and drops slowly into Kansas, then we would have more rain and unsettled weather for days. The latest model runs have been going with the drier further north and east solution. Below you can see the two extremes. And, both of these could still be very wrong. The first map shows the 500 mb flow from last nights computer model run and the second map shows the same flow from yesterday mornings GFS run. So, there is a big difference through the plains.
GFS 00z 96 hr valid Friday evening.gif
Click to enlarge (7 PM GFS model run valid Saturday evening)
GFS 12z 500 mb valid Friday evening.gif
Click to enlarge (7 AM Tuesday GFS run valid also on Saturday evening)

We will be looking at two more runs of the computer models before we update the forecast tonight and three more runs before the 10 PM newscast. To forecast the weather for this weekend you should pay close attention to how the computer models are trending, but at the same time you should be looking for errors the models are likely making. So, there is a big range of possibilities for this weekend's forecast. This is why we should be careful about making any conclusions this early. An upper low forming north and dropping south into the Mississippi River valley will bring us a pretty nice and cool holiday weekend with maybe a shower or two. If it digs harder into Kansas then we have a chance of heavier rain and a cloudier scenario for the weekend. There are other possible solutions as well.

The flow aloft is blocked up east of us and this blocked up pattern with Ernesto caught in the middle may allow for the further west solution. This is what I will be looking for today on the runs.

Have a great day. More later on.

Gary

Posted by at August 30, 2006 7:04 AM

Comments

*********
Good Morning Gary!
Looking good for Friday night's Royals game I see! Keep up the good work. Glad you're back! Paula R.
--------------------
Paula,

Right now the weather looks good for Friday night!

Gary

Posted by: Paula Ratterman at August 30, 2006 8:45 AM

*************************
Gary-

I wanted to know if you have any thoughts about the weather in Chicago for the weekend. Is the blocking pattern you talked about going to have any big adverse effects? We're heading up there and I trust you more than trying to find something on the internet. Thanks for the help, hope you have a great day.
--------------------------
Wade,

Chicago will also be under the influence of this strange and developing weather pattern. The remnants of Ernesto will be combining with our upper low to complicate the forecast. It will likely be clouds with a cool lake breeze and possibly some showers in Chicago.

Gary

Posted by: Wade at August 30, 2006 10:31 AM

*****************
GARY-
A FRIEND OF MINE WAS ASKING WHY WINDY HAD RECIEVED A FLOWER. I STARTED CHECKING IN YOUR COMMENTS AND THEN SAW THAT WINDY HAD RECEIVED A TRIBUTE IN LAST THURSDAYS PAPER. I AM SO SORRY TO HEAR ABOUT HER.
MY DAUGHER WAS A BEVERAGE CART GIRL AT LIONSGATE THIS SUMMER AND SHE HAD SEEN YOU AND THE DOGS OUT BACK. BUT SHE IS BACK IN SCHOOL NOW SO I HAD NO IDEA ABOUT WINDY.
SHE WAS A GREAT DOG. I'M HONORED TO HAVE GIVEN HER A RAWHIDE BONE WHEN YOU CAME TO VISIT OSAWATOMIE YEARS AGO.
BUT YOU HAVE STORMY AND NOW BREEZY TO CARRY ON HER TRADITION. I TRULY AM SORRY FOR YOUR LOSS.
---------------------
I do remember coming down to Osawatomie years ago with Windy. Thank you for remembering her.

Gary

Posted by: susyhensler at August 30, 2006 10:35 AM

**************
Glad to see you are back! I am very glad things have changed, its almost like it's "May" around here! Do you think that Ernesto will still have a significant impact on the large scale pattern this week, or is it too weak to have much of an effect? thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe.
-----------------
Nick,

Ernesto is really just a disturbance caught in this big blocked pattern. So, Ernesto itself will have very minimal affects on the large scale pattern. So many things are changing right now.

Gary

Posted by: Nick Rau at August 30, 2006 11:25 AM

***********************
Rut roh..the last few frames of the NAM show the low cutting off and landing on our heads. The GFS still has it a bit north. Which one is hot these days, or do you take the avg of both? LOL. Such a wierd pattern. I think this last cold front was more of a catalyst than we think. It started a bit a week or so ago, but this last front solidified things. Look at the temp differences..it completely cooled down the country. Me thinks this is what you will see again around Nov 1st. I know you will disagree, but this is not a summer pattern in my opinion, but maybe the first view of the next GRC. Maybe the next GRC will be defined by the blocky patterns...
-------------------------------
Scott,

I know you will see. The pattern now will look very different in a few weeks and then VERY different as the real pattern begins setting up in October and November. You will see......and we can't jump to any conclusions now, on September 15th, or October 1st. I really believe it doesn't matter now.

Gary

Posted by: Scott at August 30, 2006 4:23 PM

*************
Gary, not only do you feel the emptiness but I just know Stormy and Breezy are "lost" too. Plus many hundreds of thousands of us are mourning along with you. Remember, Gary, as much as it hurt you, and still hurts, it was time to do that last loving act of caring for Windy. The hardest thing you have ever had to do in your whole life. Just imagine her in Heaven, young again, running around, jumping, chasing butterflies and flies, and winning hearts everywhere like she did down here on earth! If Windy were to come back today for just a bit, she would tell you, "You gave me a wonderful life, it could not have been any better!" Just remember, she will waiting for you to call her name when you arrive in Heaven to greet her! Windy only stayed alive all these extra years because of the love you surrounded her with day in and day out! Anatole France said, "Until one has loved an animal, a part of one's soul remains unawakened." I wondered if you listened carefully to hear Heaven's Gate open for her? I am so sorry for your loss.
---------------
Thank you Janet!

Gary

Posted by: Janet Beach at August 30, 2006 9:12 PM

*************
Hey Gary, I don't know if you are taking requests or not, but I like to see the 7 day forecasts, and in my opinion, it would be great if you put a 7 day forecast link on the blue block where you have the 3 degree warranty and Triple Action Radar. Just my opinion.
-------------------
Keri,

I will always take requests. But, what do you mean on the "blue block"? On our website? or on the air?

Gary

Posted by: Keri Worley at August 30, 2006 9:43 PM

*****************
Gary,

I'm glad you have this blog. It seems at times you really want to go into more detail about the weather on air but don't have the time to do so. I enjoy reading the blogs and try to learn something from them.

One thing I have learned is that we have some very intelligent people here who can really talk "shop" with you. I'm so impressed. I knew people were fancinated with weather but just didn't know how much. I'm looking forward to reading more about your theory and everything coming up this fall and winter.

Have a good day :)
--------------------
Donna,

I don't have enough time on the air. There is a group of people who think we should do the weather in one minute and just be a computer telling you temperatures. But, you know I don't believe in doing the weather this way. I always like to explain what is happening. And, it can be entertaining and informational at the same time. Many weathercasters have a hard time explaining the weather and consultants then see this and they say don't do it.

One thing that I can do is get right to it and get into my explanation fast to educate, entertain, and inform the viewer. So, it is up to me to get to it fast. I sometimes take too much time before getting to the topic I really want to discuss. Then I run out of time and I hate that. This is when Jack Harry gets mad at me for taking some of his time even if it is just 10 seconds.

Gary

Posted by: Donna at August 31, 2006 7:39 AM

 
 

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