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New data and hottest contest
New data is in and it has a major twist to Fridays hot forecast. A wave moves by during the day and a band of clouds or even showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Any cloud cover will keep it below 100 degrees. So, we are waiting on the new GFS to see what the trend is. This wave on the latest NAM model is very different from the morning run. And, the latest trend is for no rain this weekend. We have a lot to figure out tonight.
So, the hottest day of the year may have already been reached. It is a tie between three different 104 degree days as seen below.
It was 104 degrees on the following dates and times:
July 19th....2:37 PM
August 1st..2:59 PM
August 4th..3:24 PM
It appears we have a clear winner. It's me....just kidding even though I did pick August 4th. We will continue to look over it one more time, but I think only one other person picked one of the days exactly. More later. The winner will get a plush Windy and Stormy pet and one of my books "Our Spacious Skies".
Posted by at August 15, 2006 4:37 PM
Yup, the new runs are interesting. I think Friday, we will catch the bottom of the vort max, and limit the heating of the day. Timing is key..if the front stalls at all, or slows down, we would hit the compression heating in the max heating of the day which could put it at 100 or so. But, I think the front will come early giving some rain. I need to research a bit more to get a feel for where we will be based on position, winds and temp...but Friday should be interesting, and possibly difficult to nail down until Wed night or Thurs.
The new data this evening was all over the place. I didn't like it at all. The forecast beyond tonight has many, many questions. I thought I answered your other question fairly well, but I was criticized. You know how emotional I can get.
Posted by: Scott at August 15, 2006 5:31 PM
I am hoping this new pattern gives the region more widespread rainfall. The 850 temps in the interior west are finally starting to cool off, and colder air is building in Canada down the road. Lawrence was 53F this morning. Finally some signs of fall are showing up!
But it is still August. It did feel awesome today.
Posted by: Devin at August 15, 2006 7:26 PM
Gary, I am not overly concerned with the emotional aspect of your entries [as I have the same passion, just a bit different education set], and I realize you have more to do that just blog entries..that being said, I have learned to blog often and early to learn about what I am seeing. I don't take offense.
I would have liked to you answer the 850mb conversion question I asked, but I can figure it out...I don't have a met degree, but a pretty keen sense of how things relate [eg. tropic heat engine affecting GRC creation], and can do pretty good deductions based on limited facts that I have learned.
That being said...one blog wont satisfy anyone that has a thirst to learn about weather. I bounce ideas off in here as well as reading other web documentation and doing self study. I have learned that patience is a key and that not all my answers will be found here when I want them. I would venture to guess that if I went over the past blogs, the answers are all there if you pay attention.
Aside from that...looking at both models, I do see a upper level high that moves out ahead of the front on Friday that should bring the backside southern winds up into the front...just don't know if we will catch all the moisture to fuel the front for large precip. I kinda doubt it, and think the majority of the rain will be N and E of us. I will keep watching the models tomorrow and Thurs..that should solidify...but then again...is it really forecasting one or two days ahead? ;-)
He just pushed my button by talking about another blog's science. Oh well. I need to take a deep breath sometimes.
The new data comes out soon. I can't wait.
Posted by: Scott at August 15, 2006 7:31 PM
"And, the latest trend is for no rain this weekend. " 4:37 pm.
You have a 70% chance of rain on Saturday.
I know. This is not easy. The new data that comes out before the 10 PM newscast will help us decide which way to go. If the trend continues then we will be dropping the percentage. But, I am not convinced yet so we decided to stick with it for now.
Posted by: hank at August 15, 2006 7:38 PM
We have somewhat vivid lightning just to the SW of Gardner. It is 9:30 PM and I have been watching a build up thunderheads to our SW for most of the evening. The storm looks to be almost stationary the past hour or so. Yet, this storm does not show up on the radar. Could this just be a very isolated garden variety storm that builds up and rains itself out in the same spot?
That was a nice thunderstorm that went poof.
Posted by: Will at August 15, 2006 9:44 PM
I think the rain comes on Friday, not Sat.
Posted by: Scott at August 15, 2006 9:54 PM
I'm out in San Jose this week, first thing I noticed when I stepped off the plane was a nice cool crisp feeling in the air. I almost forgot how nice cool air is :) Hope fall comes early for KC.
I agree... bring on the fall! I was out in Seattle, where it was MUCH cooler than it had been here. It was nice that it cooled down in time for our return to KC! :)
Posted by: Dave C. at August 15, 2006 11:18 PM
I think you meant to say that it was 104 degrees on August 6th at 3:24pm and not August 4th. The only reason I know this is because the 6th at 5:18pm was my guess.
Who could have predicted, in a summer with few clouds and less rain, that clouds would move in by mid-afternoon and produce scattered storms.
You are correct. It was August 6th. We will look at all of the entries soon.
Posted by: Dave Arnold at August 16, 2006 8:53 AM
Gary, I am very glad that the hot weather is finally starting to subside a little. We are going to the Royals game on Saturday night and wanted to know what we can expect.
Right now Saturday looks great!
Posted by: Mark at August 16, 2006 9:21 AM
Gary, I agree that your theory does well at predicting specifics within a winter pattern. For example, it predicted the few cold snaps that we got last winter pretty well.
But I also think it is possible to make long-term forecasts that have skill before seeing the specific pattern develop. For example, the Climate Prediction Center is making a fairly bold (by their standards) prediction of an above-average winter for most of the U.S. Do you think this prediction is baseless?
I should clarify a few things. First of all I don't think the Climate Prediction Center's forecast for this up coming winter is baseless. The ocean temperature anamolies and circulations can be a good indicator on whether we have a better chance of a colder or warmer season. And, this is primarily what they are using. I also firmly believe in my theory. And, the weather pattern sets up between October 10th and November 10th. A few years ago the forecast from the Climate Prediction Center was for a very warm winter with a weak El Nino. And, then the pattern set up and everything was out of phase with that prediction and we made a prediction for it to be much colder than average over the northeast U.S. right where the CPC was predicting the bullseye of warmth. We ended up being correct as it was a brutal winter for New England.
My point is that once we figure out the pattern by Early November, then you can add in the other influences and make a much more accurate prediction. So, any forecast that comes out before the unique pattern becomes established by later in October or early November has very little potential of being accurate. I hope this makes sense. I am open for any discussion and very open for new discoveries.
Posted by: Rob Dobson at August 16, 2006 9:26 AM
Good day all:
Im not a pro at Forecasting, Im more into Severe Storms. Any way yes Friday does have some strange features to it. What a strange set up. Yes it is a hard one to get a handle on. Hey Im curious about your Book """Our spacious Skies""" Does it contain any content on certain Dynamics ? Does it cotain anything on your Pattern that you Presented in Washington ? Do you know if any of the Book Store have it? Did you ever go out on a Storm chase with Dr. Bluestein ? I would really like to sit down and have a good chat with him on Storms. Hey Weather Team doing a great Job.
De Soto Kansas
My book "Our Spacious Skies" came out four years ago. I think it is still availabe at a reduced cost at the KansasCityStore.com. The book was written by Vic and Jen Winte & myself. I wrote the weather portion and they wrote the astronomy part of the book. It is nice and full of pictures but doesn't go that in depth.
I did get the opportunity to chase with Howard Bluestein one time. We had a great chase ending with a beautiful wall cloud at sunset back in 1983.
Have a great day Steve!
Posted by: Steve Newport at August 16, 2006 10:43 AM
I think Gary and staff, you are doing a fabulous job! We must remember who is in charge here, old Mother nature herself! And she does have a sense of humor, doesn't she?
I check in daily just to see what is going on and the great pictures people send in!
Keep up the good work and if you EVER get a direct line to Mother Nature, tell her we do like the 4 seasons. That is why most of us live here!
I agree. I love the four seasons, but winter is my favorite.
Posted by: Debbie at August 16, 2006 11:12 AM
Here is the link for the assessment..good reading...looks like possible weak El Nino..but weak at that...
I am positive that there is a relationship beyond what you think, Gary - on ENSO, AMO and any other O cycle..LOL I feel like I am going to have to write a thesis paper to prove it. I think the ties are stronger than just an enhancer. I think it also contributes to how the energy flows to the poles which in my mind directly affects the setup of the GRC. The reason I feel that this is so is beyond temp/precip affects of la/el nino/nina, it tends to change the jetstream, as well as how the shortwaves evolve. I think by changing the stream and waves, you also intrensically change the location of persistant H and L pressures and their strengths. This- I believe- directly affects and helps determine the beginning and end of the GRC. Just my opinion...let the thesis paper begin!
I must disagree with you. I firmly believe, and have watched it happen year after year, that the weather pattern sets up regardless of El Nino and La Nina and other ocean oscillations. I can show you. When the weather pattern sets up in October and November this fall we can discuss this further. The pattern will set up, then we can look at El Nino, etc, and I can show you how that may influence the pattern. But, something MUCH bigger is going on that has yet to be discovered. Or it is the GRC that is this discovery.
Remember I am open to any possibility. We can discuss this but remember I have been studying this for about 20 years.
Posted by: Scott at August 16, 2006 1:21 PM
I have been following the dialogue between you and Scott and enjoy your friendly competition in forcasting. I also read your critics blog and have this to say in your defense (not that you need any). Not all of us has your background and education in weather, but merely an interest to gain some insight to forcasting. Scott obviously has more weather knowledge than the average person so your answers were at his level of comprehension. Time is precious and doesn't allow for explanations to difficult questions that all of us can understand. Perhaps if one knew the science behind the models you refered to the answer would be clear. To be honest the models you talk about are over my head, but if I needed to understand them I will get some books and learn meteorology. I ask you simple questions and get simple answers. I plan my activities from your daily forcasts and through the blog I gain insight to those questionable moments to which I need to maintain a rigid state of flexibility. So don't let the critics beat you, we all draw what we need from the blog and no matter what you do, someone will be vocal about being unsatisfied. The favorable comments far outweigh the bad, justifiably so.
Awesome! Thank you for the wonderful comments. We try to explain the weather on your level most of the time and occasionally will go more in depth, but most of the time I believe meteorologists can over analyze. This is why I say intuition is so important in forecasting and most meteorologists just don't have it.
Keep reading and we look forward to your questions.
Posted by: Jim Yates at August 16, 2006 1:50 PM
Ok..I will TRY to keep this entry short, but I am now going to go out on a limb.
Gary Knowns -
Each GRC is unique
ENSO and other cycles may enhance but not define a GRC.
Scott's beliefs - We will call this the SRT [Scott Relationship Theory - much already defined in previous blogs - energy transfers to the poles- remember?]
The SRT defines the GRC as the end of the GRC stablizes [or more specifically de-stablizes] the tropics to begin tropical storm season
The "O" cycles define the SRT and affect the creation of the GRC.
This being said, I think I have an idea that will be interesting to follow. Based on the "O" cycles, and my belief of repeating or analogious cycles, I believe this tropical season will be like 2001. Both in numbers, dates, "O" cycles and strengths. [First premise]. This in turn should lead into a similar GRC to 2001-2002. [Second premise].
If this were to happen, then the GRC would need to revisit the first of Gary's premises to unique GRCs.
I don't know if I am right. But its a "hunch" based on what I have learned thus far.
Gary, question - do you have specific charts on 2001-2002 GRCs to compare to, or more specifically, what features made that year unique? I will try to find models from back then to watch throughout this up coming year. Maybe my theory will flame out, or maybe..just maybe...I might have a tie to the GRC that can be proven?
Dunno...just food for thought.
Interesting thoughts but.....no. Every year is unique. The pattern that sets up this fall will be like no other pattern that has ever occurred. I do have the charts and there are no similarities. There is actually a website that has some of the 500 mb charts from the past few years. I will look for it later. Remind me.
Posted by: Scott at August 16, 2006 1:56 PM
Speaking of severe weather... Feb/March started off hot'n'heavy with tornados. Since then... I think a very few in the area. Are we coming into historical low territory for Summer (actual Summer June 21 on) Tornados? Thanks!
We have to look into this! It has been very quiet, but I know why. We have had a "long term" long wave ridge from Montana northward. We picked this feature out early in November when we made our winter forecast. And, it has just fallen apart. Storm systems came through the ridge and just fell apart. And as the summer has settled in severe weather set ups just had limited opportunity across the favored northern position during the summer.
Posted by: hank at August 16, 2006 2:02 PM
Oh I hurt my back Moving out a Broken AC for a new one so I cant type to fast or I get a shot of pain up my back. Any way, I think there could be One more day of One Hunderd or near One Hundred within the next 7 to ten days. The rest of August I beleive could Bounce around bewteen high 80's and 90's This one wacky Pattern we have been going. The impulses and Troughs have come out of Strange Directions. With the Temp fluxes it could brew up a few storms, Isolated heavy ones that could bring sparse amounts of heavy rains and Possible Outflow wind damage along with some hail with isolated Storms that can Lift and rotate. It looks theere is a Battle going on between late summer and early Fall.
Just a few thoughts I have.
De Soto Kansas
Posted by: Steve Newport at August 16, 2006 3:31 PM
I haven't been on for a while and I'm upset I missed the heat contest. I've kept KC records for 40 years and our average hottest day was August 14. Whenever our hottest day occured before August 14, we had a wetter and colder winter. And the opposite when it happened after that. Our trend isn't much different than last year, although we've had a few hotter days. If that trend continues, the heat is over and expect our first frost October 25th and our first measurable snow December 5th. If you use our hottest day as August 8th, then the last time that happened early was August 8th, 1988 and the second closest was 1975 on August 12. Our hottest day last year was August 12. Using 1975 as a pattern, that year we recorded 25.5" of snow. Combining last years, 1988 and 1975 patterns, I estimate 19" of snow with most of that coming after the first of the year.
Great ideas, but I just don't believe in this. But with that said let's see what happens.
We are glad you are reading our blog again.
Posted by: Gary B. at August 16, 2006 3:47 PM