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Record High today
KCI hit 104 degrees today (2:59 PM) which ties the record high set back in the extremely hot summer of 1980. Last week I had several calls/emails/blogs talking about weather.com and how they were forecasting 98 at the most. And, we were criticized on one radio station since we were forecasting 106 degrees. Well, in the end our forecast came out pretty good. I hate tooting our own horn, but for some reason people go to weather.com for our local forecasts when it is always way off. Why rely on that site?
It is hot and I think we are all ready for some cooler weather. Unfortunately, another heat wave may build in Sunday through Wednesday. The upper high over the east shifts south and then northwest to right near us by Tuesday. Ouch!
If it doesn't rain Wednesday night it will get a bit crispy. Hopefully a nice line of thunderstorms will slowly move across. I have concerns it will be just north of us, but let's see how it looks on Wednesday.
Posted by at August 1, 2006 5:11 PM
I have a question about the different forecast too. i was on the national weather services website and they were saying that monday's high was going to be 94 but you said that it might be hotter. I know that you are right but i was just wondering how can different weather stations and websites be so far apart when it comes to the weather?
This is where we make a huge difference when it comes to relying on a weather forecast. Why do most people think that the weatherman is always wrong? Because most forecasters just blow it. This is the image we are trying extremely hard to change.
Our forecast will be right again. Theirs will be wrong. Now, we are not always right. I wonder if we can convince Kansas City viewers? It is one of our goals. I know that many of you believe and have seen the difference, but so many people watch the other stations.
Posted by: megan at August 1, 2006 5:38 PM
Why, oh why can't we just be done with this stupid, annoying, uncomfortable heat already? Ok, now that I've done my whining =)...do you think Weather.com is always off on forecasts because most of their forecasts are not local? Are they looking at too big of a picture?
It isn't just their forecast.....look at me, man I am on a rampage tonight. Since they aren't local they don't have a chance against us. But, as I said this doesn't mean they are always wrong, and I am always right.....just 99% of the time.
Posted by: Marlina at August 1, 2006 6:26 PM
I rarely go to weather.com, I don't even trust any national media organization when it comes to weather. My main sources are noaa and you guys, I also use intellicast.com some because there radar sometimes helps to see a large portion of the US.
Posted by: Dave C. at August 1, 2006 6:44 PM
I sure hope some of that rain makes it south of the metro area. I live in Linn County Kansas and we could sure use the rain like everyone else. The last couple of rain events have not given us much but maybe a sprinkle down here. The cracks in my yard are huge and we are having some foundation issues because of the lack of rain. At this point do you think the rain will make it this far? Thank you!! Monica
I am not too excited about it right now. But, forecasting thunderstorms really needs to be Nowcasted. So, let's wait and see how it is setting up on Wednesday.
Posted by: Monica at August 1, 2006 7:03 PM
On the differences of the weatherpeople....my mother and I would fight over which channel to watch the weather on when I go over her house. She always wanted to watch you because you were the most accurate, me, I wanted another station. My mother and I made a bet that for one month each would watch the other weatherperson and whomevers station was right the most times that month had to take the other out to dinner. I lost. This was over a year ago and I have faithfully watched you ever since.
Thanks. This is a perfect example. If people don't watch our forecast then they just think everyone is always wrong. I am glad you made the switch.
Posted by: Keri Worley at August 1, 2006 7:03 PM
Gary, 7:20 p.m. in Olathe and we're at 99. I remember 1980, I was 13. This is hot but I don't think we're getting to that point yet, at least I hope not. I have a theory on the national sites and why they are so off base. It seems to me that they just forecast average temps for the season wer're in. Especially in the longer range forecasts. This may seem a bit elementary, but what do you think? Greg.
Good observation Greg, but it isn't just the national sites. Most forecasters trend towards the average as the days go by. We don't do it that way.
Posted by: Greg at August 1, 2006 7:31 PM
Gary I will admit I do visit weather.com, but it is only to check the current conditions. I glance at their forecasts, but you're right, they're always way off. I always rely on you because you're the most accurate. You mentioned the other day that the current temperature is on this site, but it takes an extra click or two to get to it. You should talk to your boss about getting the current temperature on the front page of nbcactionnews.com (I've seen bloggers in the past mention wanting current temps). Another news station has it on their front page (I rarely visit that site though, and I'm on this one everyday). It would make it so much more convenient. Anyway, keep up the GREAT work, you and the weather team are truly the best! :-)
Thank you for the advice. We are working on it as I write this. Let's see if I can get it done.
Posted by: Koyuki at August 1, 2006 8:06 PM
Here's an idea on how to convince viewers you are right more often...
Of course you show the promo saying you're the most accurate, why don't you show on a monthly basis, for example, how many times you are within 3 of the temperature? At the end of the month, then you can say for 2-3-4 days in a row that you were within 3 18 out of 21 days this month. Its one thing to say "the most accurate" but if you put some numbers behind it, then you can really make an impression. If you really want to start a "weather war" you can track the other three newschannels percentages too. Not sure if you'd want to call them out like that though, although i'm sure you'd beat them in the long-term.
Just my .02
Tim in GW
Good idea, but this is what Weatherate.com does. We are so far ahead of our competition it is not even a competition really. It is like we have won the superbowl 4 years in a row. And, we keep battling every year.
Anyway, this company has been rating television stations accuracy for years now and we are number 1 in the nation when it comes to the percentage we beat our closest competitor. And, we know they are trying.
Posted by: Tim in Greenwood at August 1, 2006 8:12 PM
You made a beliver out of me a long time ago. If I was a betting man I always pick your forecast.
Keep up the GREAT WORK!
Thank you so much!
Posted by: Sandy at August 1, 2006 8:13 PM
Hey Gary, I meant to ask this earlier, I know this is not an 1980 summer, but is it possible to give us an summary over the heat wave of 1980 and some comparison to this summer? Wikipedia claims that during that summer KC only went below 90 degrees twice in 17 days. Could we see a few more heat waves this summer?
If the heat builds in again next week we will do the comparison to 1980 and other summers.
Posted by: Dave C. at August 1, 2006 8:27 PM
Gary, I think I picked today as the hottest day...will you have a tie breaker if it stays tied at 104 or have two winners? That's assuming next week doesn't hit 105+.
The first tie breaker is the time. So, if one of you was closer to that day's high temperature on time then that person would win.
Posted by: Chris at August 1, 2006 9:40 PM
Weather.com has been the most unreliable source for a long time. It takes them forever to change the forcast, even when its obvious. I always assumed they have so many different forcasts that they just trend with the avg or stay with 1 model. They have no personal touch like you, who can update as needed. There is 1 competing station, I wont mention, that seems to stick with what the weather channel forcast calls for. Not very original!!!
You are by far the best in town and keep improving how fast you can update the forcast like this blog and weather plus.
Posted by: joe at August 1, 2006 10:17 PM
I get on your blog atleast 2-3 times aday just to read what might be posted. I enjoy it. However while I am not quite old enough to remember I have heard some older men around town talk about the summer of 1980 and then the winter of 1980 how bad it was. While I think we are on the verge of losing winter due to global warming I still think something exciting will happen someday. I read about your theory on the blog from time to time so do you think with all the heat we have had and that it looks to continue do you think the winter of 2006 could be similar to the winter of 1980.
According to my theory, which we firmly believe, a unique weather pattern will set up in October and early November and then begin cycling. So, our summer weather has absolutely NO relation to the next winter season. It could be anything at this point, and statistics back this up 100%.
Posted by: Jon at August 1, 2006 11:12 PM
i want to know what you are thinking about this winter!When do you think we will see our first sign of snow. I love snow, and am hopping for a big snow storm this year,
The lowest amount of snow ever during a winter snow season is 4.3 inches. So, it will snow! Other than this we won't know until at least late October or early November. We issue our winter forecast around November 10th every year.
Posted by: Andy at August 2, 2006 12:42 AM
The only station I watch to get the weather forecast is yours! I visit your blog every day and enjoy reading what you have to say about the weather! I remember a day not too long ago when my mom was complaining about the weather channel being wrong. My response to her was, You should have watched Gary's forecast !! :-)
Thanks. Exactly. If you can get the accurate forecast and you can rely on it then why go to the other sources. This is my quest! I wouldn't have this quest if I knew we couldn't come through. But, we do almost every time.
Posted by: Jeanie at August 2, 2006 7:12 AM
Last year when we went to a weather spotter class, the guy from the NWS was very good. But he said when there is a chance of severe weather DO NOT go to a national weather station, always turn to a local forecast for for an accurate look at what is happening, which of course, would be you.
Too often I have had to call people who rely on TWC for KC weather and reassure them that we really didn't just get a monsoon and no tornados were ripping through downtown Lenexa.
The NWS does an EXCELLENT job with severe weather and this is the one area that all local television stations rely on them for. But, other than this very important aspect of what they do, we make our own forecasts and have our own weather information and make up our own minds when it comes down to the accurate forecast.
Posted by: Jeri Correll at August 2, 2006 8:41 AM
Is there a way you can link ESP to the web page? Pretty much the only reason I goto weather.com is for the psuedo-live radar (it's usually ~ 20 -30 minutes behind).
We are still working on getting a looping radar on our site.
Posted by: hank at August 2, 2006 8:56 AM