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Strange developments
Good evening,
I was just on at 6 PM and Jeff Penner came through with confidence. We were discussing what could happen tonight and both of us feel that we are in this zone between the weak front to our south and the 850 mb front to our north, not to mention the main cold front coming down. It is showing up on satellite rather well and between now and midnight we can expect thunderstorms to become wide spread near I-70 all the way out to western Kansas. We are in light west flow aloft and these thunderstorms must overspread our area.
Then, Saturday night and Sunday is very interesting. There is also a weak circulation in the satellite pictures near the Colorado/Kansas border. A storm may be developing aloft and then the only place it can go is right over Kansas and slowly. This could bring a very heavy rainfall event just west of here Saturday and Saturday night, but it could move in here Sunday. I will show some maps later if this trend continues. The GFS has it clearly and the NAM model has a string of vorticity max's over northern Kansas late Saturday so watch out. This could have a happy ending, or we could be left frustrated again.
9:20 PM now......
New data strongly supports the potential storm on Sunday and rain on Saturday. But, something unexplainable keeps happening. Columbia, MO just got hit by a major thunderstorm with torrential rain. Thunderstorms are reforming near and just east of Kansas City. It is one thing if we miss this ONE, but it is every one of these. I have a feeling we will be getting a lot of rain this weekend. If we don't then I may not have much explanation for you. It is all there and thunderstorms are all over the place. But, they keep missing us.
Gary
Posted by at August 18, 2006 6:24 PM
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Hi Gary:
Wow, I hope we get the storms, and some heavy rain! Now, for your forecast on Sunday, wow...you are going out on a limb. I wanted to see the NWS forecast, and they call for partly cloudy skies and a high 85. They do not even mention rain. In this situation, with 50% as the rain chance, they are not really wrong beacuse all they are saying is it is a 50% chance it will not rain! LOL. Ok, that is not true, but I had to mess with you. You guys seem to have a handle on this, so let us just see how it sets up!
Brian
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Brian,
The new data is still very close to being a cloudy rainy day on Sunday, so I will stick with the forecast and see how it trends over the weekend.
Gary
Posted by: Brian at August 18, 2006 8:10 PM
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Bring all the rain you want this weekend and the next, just try to be nice to me and give me mid 80's and sunshine from the 31st thru the 5th as we are going camping over Labor Day. Anyway you can give me what you are thinking right now for that weekend? I know its kinda far off and I promise not to hold you to it if your wrong this far out :).
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Keri,
Ask again next week. Have a great weekend.
Gary
Posted by: Keri Worley at August 18, 2006 10:12 PM
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Gary: As of 2200, radar shows a line of storms from E of us all the way to St Louis, AND from W of Topeka almost into Colorado down towards NW OK. AGAIN, a hole in the KC area - what is WRONG with this B------dy place? Forget answering, it is the Curse of the StormDog. If I move away, guess what, it WILL rain plenty. I GIVE UP.
Later, perhaps,
Dog
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Dog,
I'm frustrated too.
Gary
Posted by: StormDog at August 18, 2006 10:20 PM
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I am going on a trip to Africa in November, and while I know it's still a ways off, do you know of any good sites where I can find weather forecasts for Kenya? Thanks!
MARLINA:
I like this site:
http://www.wunderground.com/global/Region/AF/Temperature.html
Jamie
Posted by: Marlina at August 18, 2006 11:56 PM
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Enjoy your vacation Gary.
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Ionnie,
I am not off until Wednesday. I am ready now.
Gary
Posted by: lonnie at August 19, 2006 7:26 AM
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