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Strange weather & "ophan anvil"
Good evening everyone,
There is a weak front stalled just south of Kansas City this evening. It may help generate a few thunderstorms, as it already has but they have had a hard time holding together.
Then, the weather pattern is very strange. Earlier this afternoon I thought we would be near or above 100 degrees for five days. But, the models are trending to lower heights aloft which will make it tougher for us to maintain the hot atmosphere, plus the front may drift back through us and a storm in the upper levels could form over Kansas by Thursday night which could increase our threat of rain. Let's see how we feel about these things later tonight.
So, how are you enjoying NBC ACTION WEATHER PLUS? Have you checked it out on your computer. It is streaming! Just go to our website and click on it. It is on the front page. Have you seen it on the digital channel on your cable system? Let us know how you feel about this new 24 hour weather source!
Have a great evening. Thunderstorms could still form near the front.
The above picture was taken by Bob Jarred in Bonner Springs. It is really an amazing photo. It is called an "orphan anvil". I am talking about the anvil that is almost completely broken off of the cumulunimbus cloud. The base is falling apart and soon will dissipate, and then often the anvil is all that is left, thus the name orphan anvil.
Posted by at August 8, 2006 5:47 PM
Is there going to be a time when we can get the NBC Action Weather Plus on satellite? We have Direct TV and I haven't seen it pop up on our channel options.
I think it is going to be a long time before it is on satellite. It is possible to pick it up with an antenna.
Posted by: Colleen at August 8, 2006 6:02 PM
Gary, This isn't about the weather, but I am hoping you can help. I have 2 Exotic 5 year old cats (half persian and half american shorthair). I have to give them up because I take care of my elderly mother and am looking for a smaller place, plus can't afford to take care of them anymore. Do you have any suggestions?
I am not sure where to go with this situation. Maybe someone else has some good ideas. Hopefully someone you know will want to take them in for you.
Posted by: Linda Ishk at August 8, 2006 6:55 PM
I never new you could get weather+ on the net. Just watched a few mins of it and it looks great! Thanks weather team for putting that togeather for us.
We are very glad that you like it.
Posted by: Mike Smith at August 8, 2006 8:20 PM
"I really like what you've done with the weather!" Like having the local weather details available 24/7/365 online AND on TV (Everest cable). It's absolutely great. I hated to wait until 10 p.m. to see the weather and now I can see whenever I want to see local details. Thank you VERY much for working so hard for us. Now, can you just cool it down outside for a week or more...please. Just an FYI: For my home browser, I mainly use Firefox (to avoid viruses and spyware) and the WeatherPlus does NOT stream using that browser.
We will work on getting NBC Action Weather Plus on other browsers.
Posted by: Claudia Kaiser at August 8, 2006 8:26 PM
I may be getting the hang of this forecasting thingy..LOL. I have brought in the 200mb to my tools along with the usual 1000/500 MSLP and the 850mb temp. I also use the tropical models to get a bigger picture. This helped me today with my adjustment to the weekend and the death of the GRC. Just me..you all are the pros.
On a side note...in my tropics analysis this afternoon, I was looking at the ENSO projections. Compared to last fall, this fall will be completely different. I think we are heading into more of a El Nino trend and this will definitely change things up. The GRC next year I predict will be much more extreme and predictable.
Keep practicing every day! The end of the GRC may actually be happening this week.
Now, your talk about ENSO with the potential El Nino.....if you read carefully the forecast is still calling for neutral conditions. But, even if there is a weak El Nino, La Nina, whatever, it doesn't matter. These ocean temperature anamalies have NOTHING today with the development of the GRC. There will be some influence on the pattern that sets up but something completely different is going on, at least this is what I firmly believe. You can take the pattern that sets up and then make adjustments to your temperature and precipitation forecasts based on ENSO, but the pattern will be cycling completely independent of these influences.,
Posted by: Scott at August 8, 2006 11:55 PM
Weather Plus is great! I've not seen it on the Web page yet, but have tuned in several times on the HD channel. I can't tell tho' if this is pre-recorded, live or a mix. Some of both? Anyway, keep up the good work! (oh and...glad to see you backed off the 100's this weekend!!)
Thanks for the kind comments. We do update Weather Plus quite often so it will seem live. We can be live if something is going on and changing fast.
We keep recycling this heat, but it looks like we get a little break Friday through Saturday.
Posted by: Mike Trainor at August 9, 2006 6:29 AM
I will have to think more about the ENSO cycle and how it might affect the GRC. My gut tells me there is a tie..but you logic is sound. It seems as though the heating/cooling of the ocean would affect location/strength of the jetstreams thus establishing H/L pressure centers. Seems this would affect the cycle. But I need to research further.
Keep doing your research. The atmosphere is a huge volume of air compared to the ocean surface which is like a sheet of paper, and just a small part of it is El Nino. Now, we can talk about this further. The bottom line is that the weather pattern sets up and it doesn't matter what El Nino or La Nina or the PDO is doing, or what phase they are in. Something else entirely is going on. The pattern sets up and then if there is an El Nino we can see how that may influence the pattern. Even though the influence may be a warmer or colder winter season, the pattern will be cycling in its ridges and troughs anyway. I am convinced of this.
So, if it is a wet pattern and stormy pattern for us, then you know there is an El Nino, then you can add that into the equation to see how the subtle affect will be.
Does this make any sense?
Posted by: Scott at August 9, 2006 8:56 AM
Lovin' the WeatherPlus. It fits my schedule so well as I am an early riser (so I see Brett the most) but often miss out on the rest of the crew and any updates to the forecast at night. Your team is the best and I have to say that the accuracy is amazing. I come from a remote part of western Kansas where forecasts were streamed in from at least 30 miles away and only available during certain times of the day. It's so nice to have quality forecasts and kudos to you guys for all the additional tools like blogs, streaming, etc.
Keep up the good work!
Thanks for the feedback and kind comments! We are glad that you are enjoying NBC ACTION WEATHER PLUS and it is always nice when people notice the accuracy because weather forecasters have historically just been blasted. And, I believe rightly so, until the past few years as we provide a truly accurate forecast. We do make mistakes and certainly we are wrong at times, but I think it is a huge difference to other forecasts. Have a fantastic day.
Posted by: WendyB at August 9, 2006 9:42 AM
Being a Huge Thunderstorm fan, I've noticed that this year there have been no strong squall lines coming down from the Northwest as in years past, especially with the awsome roll clouds that usually preceed those line of storms. What rain we have recieved has been more of the pop up and isolated variety thus the spotty rain and where some areas get dumped on and other ares get nothing vs the more normal widespread rains. Is there any explaniation of this or am I wrong in my perception?
Singed going thru Thunderstorm Withdraw
It has been a strange summer. Heavy rain events have occured near by. Just the past three days has seen 3 to 6 inch wide spread rains and thunderstorms just north of us (80 miles away). But your observations are right. We just haven't been able to get the Nebraska Thunderstorms to organize and turn our way. Late tonight will be another opportunity for this and the pattern is changing but I am thinking we will get the same result.
Next week we may be in a completely different pattern and as I have said all along, when it is truly changed then the rainfall patterns will also be very different. Let's see what happens next week.
Posted by: Jeff at August 9, 2006 10:56 AM
Love your forecasts. My girlfriend and I watch you every night at 10:00.
I'm going on a canoe trip to the Elk River in Noel, MO, near Joplin on Friday and Saturday, the 11th and 12th. What can I expect the weather to be doing down there?
You can let me know on the 10:00 newscast. I'll be watching!
There may be a few thunderstorms this weekend down there. I will try to cover it on the newscast tonight.
Thanks for watching and for the kind comments.
Posted by: Anthony at August 9, 2006 11:50 AM
Makes sense. It is cause/effect, but I may have it reversed regarding impact. Will keep researching.
It is cause and affect, but the affect that those ocean oscillations have on the pattern are very minor if any at all. Now, with that said I think they can have an impact on whether or not we have a warm or cold season, but the storm track is completely separate.
ONE MORE THING. Look closely at the past few model runs..........IT HAS CHANGED. I am 90% confident. Something Massive has changed in Canada as the flow looks completely different. It should have an impact, small of big, soon on our weather.
Posted by: Scott at August 9, 2006 11:53 AM
I read somewhere where normaly for every 1000 feet you go up the Temp normaly cools something like 5.4 degrees per thousand. Thunderstorm normaly form when the temps raise something like 2.4 to 3.2 for wet air per thousand up to a certain level, then start cooling forming clouds and spreading out under a cap. With that said. Lately the mid layer and upper layer temps have been raising not allowing the wet air to cool and form clouds moist air to cool. There have been some areas that allowed cooling foprming clouds into storms but not everywhere. Hopefully come fall there will be cold fronts overiding warm wet rising air allowing clouds to form spreading out causing energy and lift to break the cap, reaching the cooler upper air producing some storms and much needed rain. The Available moisture is there we just need some mid layer cold air to give it the kick to get it going.
De Soto Kansas
There is some mid level cooling moving in Thursday night and Friday. So, there is some hope. It will rain, and a lot, but here?
Posted by: Steve newport at August 9, 2006 12:17 PM
The person that commented about the thunderstorms coming from the north is right! I also enjoy those thunderstorm complexes that form to the north in summer and then dive down right through us. Sometimes they would even backbuild from the northeast which I think is neat. When I was younger I thought it was fun to see some weather stations and TWC predicting a clear night while a raging wall of water would end up slaming us. Since the pattern has changed maybe mother nature will through us a "curve ball" from the north before summer is over! Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!
I am hoping for a knuckleball! Come on, something unusual is due to happen.
Posted by: Nick Rau at August 9, 2006 1:23 PM
Gary, We just moved here from the Chicago area where we were loyal Tom Skilling weather fans (WGN news). He did a great job educating his audience on weather topics. I see that you are doing the same on your website - but perhaps you can incorporate more of it into the nightly news broadcast? Related to this, I have been noticing that most of the record highs for the past two weeks (including some whoppers - such as 109) all occurred in 1934. What happened that year? What was the result? I can't even imagine... without A/C! Is this something that you can address on the nightly news? Thanks!
I just wish I could get more time. But, you will notice that we do add a lot of this information into our weathercasts.
1934 and 1936 were two ridiculously hot years. Over 40 days in each of those summers had highs of over 100 degrees. We are nearing 10 this summer. Can you imagine?
Thank you for watching. We are always working hard to entertain, educate, and inform you on as much weather information as possible. I am glad you found our blog.
Posted by: Kelly at August 9, 2006 3:00 PM
It looks like based on the SLP, [different one than I think you look at]
..that the high that had been sitting over Canada got pushed out and a strong low has replaced it. This also like has done earlier this year, but weaker then, has pushed the Bermuda ridge off the coastal US and in Canada. This seems to bring the jet south.
This Bermuda behavior has also be attributed to greatly affecting the reduction of storms projected this year. It is much further east now than was we expected. With the break in the ridge, I expect more troughing.
The trend continues. We may finally say good bye to this horrible pattern. It is falling apart in the next five days. We still must wait and see it happen, not just on the computer models.
Posted by: Scott at August 9, 2006 3:40 PM