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Strange weather set up
Good afternoon,
The latest data is trickling in. We are making our forecast this afternoon and trying to figure out if this tropical plume of moisture will bring us more than clouds. It really shouldn't be such a struggle for us to see some heavy rain later this week, but it may be. Another forecast problem is the potential heat. Our local region will be on the edge of the tremendous heat. If anything the trend is for the heat to be just south of us with heavy rain to the north. This is really a unique rather strange weather set up.
Below is the latest NAM rainfall forecast for Thursday night through Saturday. And, the next map is the 500 mb flow valid Friday afternoon. The main jetstream is still across Canada which means this next front is again just a summertime cold front. As soon as the jet stream dips and gets involved with the flow into the United States then we can look for that first fall cold front. This sometimes does happen in late August, and it also sometimes can wait until mid September.
Rainfall Forecast (Thursday night through Saturday) Click to enlarge
Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid Friday 1 PM)
I just don't have much confidence in this forecast at the moment and I hate just saying a chance of showers and thunderstorms. I like to pinpoint the timing, amounts, and location of the rainfall, but with this set up we must wait another day. Hopefully it will look a bit more likely for rainfall by tonight's data. You know I will go for it as soon as we believe in it. We are going to stick with our 70% chance at least for now.
Have a great day.
Posted by at August 16, 2006 4:06 PM
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Gary,
Your Weather Plus streaming on your website is messed up. The audio is not right, for some reason.
Also, did you add other cities to the left hand side? I saw Jacksonville and Birmingham today... just wondering why you changed it from local to national?
Thanks,
Sara
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Sara,
There are national and local segments and during the national segments other cities rotate through.
It does seem to be working now.
Gary
Posted by: sara at August 16, 2006 4:36 PM
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Any chance my last two blog entries from the previous blog could be brought up into this for discussion? Put alot of thought into them.
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Scott,
The discussion is open.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at August 16, 2006 5:14 PM
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Hello Mr. Lezak,
Any chance of the thunderstorms to our west to effect us late tonight? Or will they track to our north?
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Ben,
In most situations the thunderstorms to our west and northwest would be here in the morning. But, we still have an upper ridge near by and it could deflect them just north. It could be close.
Gary
Posted by: Ben Tracy at August 16, 2006 8:46 PM
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I am going to defer on the SRT and the GRC for this entry...I have a few years to prove it out ;-)
I just looked through the models for Friday...focused mainly on the NAM. Wow..tricky. I think the 500 vort may be a hair weak on what we might get. Looking at the 200, there is still on this model a ULH that should throw the tropical plume into the area. The 750 confirms. It looks like mid day we might be dryslotted, but I am going with a MCS development NW of us midafternoon with a shift to E to SE drift. I think it may go a bit north of us, but its gonna be close. We are right on the edge of the convergence, but I am not comfortable with the 500 yet to truly feel comfortable with the heading. So..long story short...I think something will develop, but the 500 steering may develop it too far north for us to catch it. We will see.
PS...I think I have been researching/learning forecasting actively for only a year..I by no means am an expert, and have learned much of how to read the maps by this blog. Ultimately, I defer to the experts...and think you and your team provide great value in the different levels of interaction!
One thing that might be fun for you/team to do for a blog entry is to take a NWS analysis, and convert it to layman's terms for the readers of this blog...that would help bring a bit more understanding! Also, ever a chance that the bloggers could include images to supplement analysis?
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Scott,
I am not sure how to add your graphics to the situation. But we will continue to make this blog be an excellent way to learn, get insight, and to add your own ideas to the equation.
Right now we are analyzing the potential of warming it back up to our original 103 on Friday.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at August 16, 2006 8:58 PM
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Gary,
What of those thunderstorms to the Northwest. That is a pretty good size complex. Is there any chance of them heading into Overland Park. Or will they dissolve before they arrive.
Thanks.
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Jeff,
It is impressive, but as of this moment I feel they will track just north of us. Let's hope for a southward shift.
Gary
Posted by: Jeff at August 16, 2006 9:27 PM
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I learned my lesson last time..I will go with 100 with a bit of cloud cover spoiling it. The 850 temps are warm, and the 1000-500 is very high... I think I have figured this out from the charts.
Question...do you all forecast from the map models, or any program data your ESP may provide?
---Puts away calculator---
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Scott,
You must look at the NAM, NGM, GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, RUC, and some other model data. Then, you look at the satellite, radar, and upper level charts. Then you make you YOUR own mind what will happen. Then you get influenced by this Scott guy and you make adjustments.......LOL as you say. But really I do all of these things all day long. Instincts are very important. And, if something changes you must not be afraid to change your forecast even if the old one was very wrong. Some forecasters just refuse to see a change until it is too late.
Thunderstorms are heading our way, suddenly, and there is a disturbance coming up from the southwest. So, maybe some thunderstorms in the morning. Good night. I now will get 4 or 5 hours of sleep. Not enough, but life is exciting.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at August 16, 2006 10:08 PM
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Who is winning the hottest day contest?
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Bernie,
I believe we have a clear winner, but we haven't really looked at every entry. Jeff or I will do this today.
Gary
Posted by: bernie at August 17, 2006 9:30 AM
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Interesting. I use the NAM and GFS most, and often use the UKMET for the tropics, but haven't used it for the mainland. I will have to bring that one in. Since I don't do much NOWCASTING, I rarely use the RUC. I do rely on the upper level charts, and the sats. I also use some of the nice features on the SPC tools link, such as soundings etc... That being said, I agree intuition is the key that separates good from great. You all are doing a great job, and keep up the great work!
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Scott,
Thank you. The set up we are currently in right now is not a good one for getting the forecast right. In other words.....this is quite challenging, perhaps more so than a snowstorm approaching. But, people won't notice since the actual weather results are not as impacting.
I am about to blog about the latest model trends.
Have a great day.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at August 17, 2006 9:49 AM
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