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Gary-I am heading down to Branson for the weekend and wanting it to stay DRY (last time it rained the whole weekend). I am hoping for some rain down here in Kingsville, but am hoping it stays dry down south. Any ideas?
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Kimberly,

It will likely rain in the morning down there, but then it dries up.

Gary

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Gary, I take nothing from your team. I think you all do a great job.

That said, I think Weatherate criteria is rather subjective.

Its no suprise as to each station altering forecasts the closer we get to that time as more info becomes available. Depending on when the forecast is rated by Weatherate, as well as where the actual observations were made, will make this a bit subjective. Granted if each station stuck to specific guidelines of when forecasts are made, and were not allowed to change them..that would make it a bit more objective, but that is not reality.

I guess I am one of the few that does not need Weatherate or other means to judge the value of your team. Read through the blogs, its obvious. You all are passionate, informative, accountable [even if you are grouchy time to time or frustrated], and most of all very focused on being the best.

Great work by the team, and leave that Weatherate stuff to those that can't see the obvious.
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Scott,

Grouchy? Just kidding. I do get a bit frustrated at times.

Weatherate uses every stations 10 PM weathercast as the forecast of record. It takes into account Precipitation, cloud cover, temperatures, wind, fog, and severe weather. So, it really takes in the entire forecast for the next 4 days. Day 1 is weighted 100%, Days 2, 3 and 4 weighted increasingly less if they makes sense. So, it is a good depiction of accuracy.

Gary

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Congratulations on handily beating the competition on accuracy. You clearly give the most accurate temperature predictions in town, and that's a prime reason I watch (although you may miss your 3 degree warranty today, at 12:09 the MKC AWOS gave a temp of only 33 C, and with the extensive cloud cover getting to within 3 of 103 F will be a stretch)!! I am concerned the cloud cover over KC today and the decreased surface temp as a result will tend to decrease the coverage and intensity of this evening's convective activity.
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Pat,

Yeah, today's cloud cover may have done us in on the 3 degree. It has been at least 98, so don't worry about it being too cool and stable.

Gary

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Gary,

The weather pattern might have changed, but the position of the upper high in the southwest is still close by. It seems like as soon as we get a decent front near us the high builds back and the "blast furnace" comes back with 850 temps at 24C. This can not be a good pattern for the plains.

Devin
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Devin,

The upper high is now shifting to the southeast for a few days. It gets complex from there. I am so ready for fall.

Gary

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Gary,

Thanks for posting the numbers from Weatherate. A couple questions.. what does the 6.xx and 7.xx scores represent? How are they calculated? Is it just based on how close you are to the high temperature, or does it facture in lows, precip, etc.?

Knowing how they come up with a score might make these numbers mean more to us amateurs. Right now i'm thinking "Well i'll take Gary's word for it that 1 full point is a huge lead, but otherwise it doesn't mean much to me? Like I mentioned in an earlier post, knowing you hit your 3-degree high or something more tangible like that can really show how much more accurate you are than the other 3 newschannels.

Keep up the good work! I'm up here in Minneapolis for the week and they got close to - if not at least 4" of rain in the last 24 hours! Lets get some in KC tonight!

Tim in GW
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We may get it tonight Tim,

The weatherate system is complex but it heavily weighs the day 1 forecast high and low, precip, clouds, and wind. Then the other days are weighted less out to day 4.

It is hard to explain why a 1 point lead is huge, but it is. For now you will have to take our word on it.

Gary

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Gary,

It sounds like your feeling a bit more positive about our rain chances, I hope it pans out. How does next week look to you are we looking at many days at 100+ starting after the weekend, could we set new highs?

Thanks,
Ken
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Ken,

Next week is strange, but thunderstorms are heading our way tonight!

Gary

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Does the Royals game look to be affected by the rain tonight? I was thinking of going out tonight if the rain was going to hold off until 10pm or so. Thanks.
--------------
Jon,

It appears it will stay dry until after the game.

Gary

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Hi Gary! I was wondering if you have had other news stations try to lure you to work for them?? And if so what was it that kept you here in Kansas? If these questions are to personal then feel free to not answer it. I was just curious. Monica
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Monica,

I have had some interest from other areas of the nation, but I just decided to stay here in Kansas City. Something could still happen, but I doubt it now that I am 44. I got advice at a conference years ago that it is often better to stay in one market and become established, and this became my goal.

Gary

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Gary,
Why on action weather plus the forcast on the bottom are so different from yours?
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Rickie,

The forecasts are generated from a computer. Our forecast will be different. I have a problem with changing this because of the cities represented, but I may change it to just Kansas City on the side bars. This can be contolled by us.

Gary

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Thought number 2.

I agree that the low moving from NM will have a potential large impact. It should bring in the flow and instablity to enhance this frontal flow. Ongoing, it appears after looking at the GFS MSLP that this low will continue to persist off an on more in the central part of the country moving from where it had been in the southwest. This should make the heat that will build in again a bit more moist. I expect that in the upcoming few days after the front passes, that the dew points will be higher. This may assist in any disturbance coming through to help with more isolated shower development.

Additionally, in looking at the high pressure ridge building in from the SE, I get the feel that this front will begin taking a more E to NE direction due to that ridge. This could also cause some training if we are in the right place. I think it might happen to late and we may get on the backside of the front before the ridge builds in to the SE. We shall see. This will be close, and we will get either just a little rain, or a bunch!
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I don't understand the "lead". You indicated in your blog that the lower the number the more accurate the forecast; however, your lead of over 1 is substantial. Will you please explain to me again or maybe in a slightly different way so that I understand?

I watch your forecast all of the time and I think you are the BEST!!!
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Sarah,

I am not exactly sure how it is calculated. But, I do know that most markets the stations are all close together. And, every week our rating may go up by .05 or .10 at the most. So, if we totally blow the forecast for about 10 weeks the competition could slowly catch us. Every March when the new season begins the pressure is really on. Everyone starts tied. And, they don't post the numbers for six weeks.

Gary

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Gary and weather team-
I just wanted to chime in and let you know how much I appreciate your accuracy. My husband & I watch your forecast exclusively. If we miss it- we check the web site. Even when we were in Salina with strong storms moving thru and trying to get home on the motorcycle without getting wet and without missing our worship time- we turned to you (via the web)Thank you all so much for your attention to detail.
tooti
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Tooti,

Thanks, and we are always working on getting better.

Gary

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You might have gone over this already, but how do they judge the most accurate? Is it the 10pm forcast the night before or the 5pm, etc...?

Thanks
Chris
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Chris,

You can read this in other statements, but it is the 10 PM newscast that is used.

Gary

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Gary,
Is weatherrate.com completely impartial? I think you guys are far and away the best. However, some friends have told me that weatherrate.com's prize goes to whoever pays the most. Is this true? I know you are the best but I need some ammo to convince some of my non-believing friends. Thanks for all you do.
Derek
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Derek,

Weatherate.com is an independent company in Arizona and they track every station in the top 100 markets. So, it is completely impartial. I have even had one of our competitors tell me that they give up and admitted that they can't beat us.

Gary

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I don't know if you're allowed to disclose this, but what is the time period that is covered by Weather Rate? Forecasts for the next day, extended forecasts, all of the above?
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Rob,

They use the 10 PM and the first four days on the forecast.

Gary

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Gary,
Those thunderstorms off to the west. Are those the thunderstorms that you expect to hit us. Or will those not make it to us. When do you expect Overland Park to see some good thunderstorms. My yard is very dry.
Thanks
--------------------------
Jeff,

Here they come!

Gary

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Good afternoon Gary,

I was thinking maybe you could with your weather promos somehow work in weatherate.com That way people can go to that themselves and look at the difference in accuracy. Honestly, I didn't know about it until I read here. And I know alot of times the best way to to get the word out there is by word of mouth. And we do tell everyone to watch you and so do my parents :) My dad just loves the pet pics everyday..lol

Have a good evening!
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Donna,

Thanks, get the word out!

Gary

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Here it comes! It looks good on the radar, but I'm still worried that the area of storms could dive south of St. Joe although so far so good.
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,

It looks really good for you right now.

Gary

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Gary, I'm glad you did stay in KC and establish yourself. I have been watching your forecasts since your early morning days on another station. (will not mention that station :) ) Your passion for weather is shared with alot of people in the area. I also mention that jamie is awesome too! I enjoy reading this blogs on a daily basis..
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Dave,

Thanks. This blog has been a lot of work, but a lot of fun!

Gary

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What came through the Gladstone area before 7pm tonight? I came home to a large tree hit by lightning and over 1 inch of rain in my gauge. The neighborhood it littered with leaves and branches everywhere. This is in the 169 and 435 area. Thanks!
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Mitchel,

We had wide spread winds of 50 to 65 mph along the leading edge of the thunderstorms. Then, some areas had over one inch of rain. I had chairs knocked over when I got home last night.

Gary

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Gary, those of us that have been watching KC weather for years know that your forecasts are the best in the region. I certainly don't need an outside company to confirm that, but it is a tremendous achievement to be recognized as the best, year after year. Keep up the good work-and more importantly-the passion that you have for weather.

BTW-.58 of rain last night at 145th & Antioch in South OP.
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Joe:
Thank you for your kind comments and for your rainfall report. Last night's thunderstorms were amazing with all the wind they brought with them!

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How do I turn in my "CUTE" pet pics to Gary???
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Annie,

You can just send it to my email address, lezak@nbcactionnews.com.

Gary