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Ok..comment and question. Comment, the GFS and the NAM are a bit out of step for Friday 850s. [Not unusual this far out]. Both initialize the low forming in western KS, but at different strengths. NAM shows the heat more than the GFS, but also promotes the front a bit more than the GFS. Tough call this far out. Would it be useful to look at dewpoint projections to determine likelihood of cloud cover? This might make a 3-5 degree factor? Dunno.

Question - what type of calculations to you factor to determine max heating possible based on the 850s? Aside from the C to F translation, what is the factor from the 850 level to surface in determining this? Maybe 30% higher at the surface in temp or so?
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Scott,

I love the fact that you are trying to forecast the weather. It can be quite frustrating and I will give you some insights into what we think as we make the forecast. It is hard to explain, but the reason we are the most accurate has nothing to do with the computer models or even just looking outside. It is our intuition, experience, and feel for what may or may not happen. With this said keep working at it.

Right now, there is a "hot" model out there. It is the NAM. The pattern changed, and suddenly the NAM has become the most accurate whereas with the old pattern even a week ago it struggled. Last week the NAM was very consistent with the 850 mb temps. Look at the new GFS 84 hour and NAM 84 hour. Notice how the GFS is coming up. Keep watching this trend. I am leaning heavily to sticking with our 103 degree forecast for Friday. It is only Tuesday and the weather WILL look differently by tomorrow not to mention Thursday and Friday. This is what makes it so exciting.

Last week I told Jack Harry to please not test us this week as the pattern was changing. And, we busted a few times. Now I am getting that feeling again.

Oh, and disregaurd the lack of precipitation forecast by the latest GFS. I hope it is wrong, but I also believe it is wrong.

Gary

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Gary, I had 2.9 in. at my house 2 miles south of the city of De Kalb mo.
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Michael,

That would have filled up my pond. Awesome.

Gary

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So I Guess it comes down to a question of if Thursday nights Diural Cooling can Produce some lower level Clouds as a residual of possible Wendsday night's storms Thursday night into Friday Morning. Clouds that could last most of the morning keeping the Sun from doing its Radiational Heating bouncing back up. As we all know in August if those clouds break up heating can get quite strong very Quickly.
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Steve,

There are many factors to consider. Let's see how it looks with the next few model runs.

Gary

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Gary,

You really didnt answer Scott's question at all, you just stepped around it. I think I speak for many of us out there, we'd like to hear what your really thinking, or at least your basis, when it comes to the forecast. The other weather blog competitor (I wont mention their name for your sake) includes what sounds like some real science in their blogs every day; other than just saying which model they flopped to.
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Jim,

I don't know what to say. Real science? I have no comment and I occasionally read that other blog. The science that they use sometimes is rather bazaar. Remember when it comes to forecasting next winters weather I have a theory. Other blogs mention what they think will happen. My theory is very scientific and I believe that NO ONE knows what will happen next winter until the pattern begins setting up and anyone who mentions it before early November doesn't have a clue. This is what I believe.

And what do you mean? I thought I did answer Scott's question, but looking back on it I really didn't read it carefully. So, you are correct in that I didn't really answer some of the specifics. I stated that the most important aspect in forecasting the weather is intuition! It really truly is. But, you can't have the intuition without tremendous scientific knowledge and analysis and also be able to make great forecasts. This is what we do every day. I am always telling you what I am thinking! At least I thought I was. What does everyone else think?

And Scott's questions are very complex and I just didn't have the time today to go over the details. He talked about 850 mb temperatures and how it may be used in forecasting the high. It certainly is a significant factor and you must use a thermodynamic diagram (chart) to take the temperature down from 850 mb dry adiabatically to the surface. It is something that I could spend some time on another day.

I know I got a bit defensive here, but it is the way I am, but then I get over it. I probably shouldn't have said anything about that other blog.

Gary