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So here is what I think about our new friend Ernie..

Here is what I think...

Max strength - strong cat 3, weak cat 4
Lowest mb - 941mb
Landfall strength - cat 2
Landfall mb - 972
Landfall location - Fl panhandle
10-12 ft storm surge

Landfall time - Friday

I think how Ernie plays with Cuba will be defining in both path and intensity. I think the shortwave forecasted to come down will steer this east, but I am beginning to wonder if it may miss it if Ernie slows down over Cuba and in the S. Gulf due to weak steering currents. Pray it stays east, as that would be the least impact to the US..but..if it slides a bit west...I may have to revisit my intensity forecast a bit.

As far as us, finally..caught the SW tropical moisture, with the right location and upper level stream. Grass is happy.

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Jamie-
Cool sounds interesting on the show tonight. Unfortunately I always work nights, hehe, but I'll have the lovely wife watch for me. Right now after them showers that rolled past, which all that heavy stuff that was around the metro that I thought would come out here didn't, ended up with 1.5 inches as it tapered off at 7:20 this morning. I see the nice blossoming of more showers right now on radar there in Kansas as you stated, so by the time you do the show tonight, my total will have changed and I won't be able to provide you with the up to date total hehe. However they will be live off my webpage if that helps ya -_-

So, for yesterday, 1.72 inches, today thus far 1.5 inches, bringing the total for the month here to 4.99 inches now. That's a healthy end for a month isn't it?

Alright thanks again Jamie for listening and posting back! I'll be paying attention for sure on the rain developments.

-Matt

MATT:
Wow, thanks for the website... that is really cool! Now I will always be able to find out Grain Valley's rainfall totals... even when you're working! ;)
Jamie

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Wahooo. Love it.

My corner of the world (SW Lawr.) is finally receiving some decent amounts of liquid sunshine. Since everything started we are at 3.58", with 1.93" today...whoops, make that 1.94"...hold on the meter just clicked twice more...now at 1.96".

Dang. Before I could push the post button the bell has rung a couple of more times and we are now at 2.01"

Presume this moisture came from somewhere in South America as it sure has that Tropical smell to it.

Bob

Ding, Ding...now at 2.03"

BOB:
Haha... that is a pretty potent little cell you are under! Thanks for the update.
Jamie

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Hey Jamie, it's so muggy outside! I live just south of loose park and was wondering how much rain we got last night? do you know? thanks

JIM:
I would estimate 1.5 to 2 inches for you!
Jamie

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Jamie this is unbelievable we had another tropical deluge that started at 2pm and lasted and hour we had 1.80 of rain in an hour the rain is now over that brings our total in bonner springs since midnite to 5.80 inches of rain that brings our total since friday afternoon to 7.55 of rain. Wow!!!

JEREMY:
That is AMAZING!!!
Jamie

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Hi Jamie,

It's 3:33pm here at good ole Fort Leavenworth and I just ran out to empty my rain gauge... we've gotten 5" so far today WOW!! I'll keep you updated on the final total after the next round tonight!

Janine

JANINE:
Thank you so much for the info!
Jamie

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We've had some pretty amazing rainfall here in western Leavenworth - 2.16" by 9:30 Saturday morning, 2.84" more by 9:30 this morning, and 1.67" more by 3:30 this afternoon. That's a total of 6.67" of rain so far! My lawn is loving it!

BOBBI:
Wow... Leavenworth has gotten a great soaking! Thanks for keeping us posted,
Jamie

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Hi Jamie,my storm total from Fri AM thru Sunday Noon is 5.30in at 148th & Metcalf.

SANDY:
Thanks for your info... that is a LOT of water!
Jamie

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Jamie - 2.09" Blue Springs - Cemetary Rd and Hwy 40 - love it!!! (Thru 1600 today)

Dog

Why, DOG... are you actually HAPPY with your rainfall?? ;)
Jamie

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2.9 last night by Ward Pkwy Mall. 1 inch just now (5pm Sunday). So 6.6 since Friday night. Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyy more than all summer. Too bad my flowers and garden are dead. It's like Momma Nature is spiting me.

Whoa? Tornado? That came out of left field.

HANK:
Definitely NOT a typical supercell/tornado set-up. I am glad it's over.
Jamie

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Gary and Jamie:

Why are we not under a Severe Thunderstorm watch or Torandoe watch? The SPC does not even have us under a slight risk, yet there was a warning issued. From what I hear, we may have severe weather overnight. I hate the policy of the SPC that "Isolated situations do not get watches." At least you folks have given us good information. I tuned into Weather Plus, and it was frozen again.

We have seen nearly 4.0 inches plus here in Overland Park. I live at 91st and Metcalf.

Happy forecasting!

Brian - Overland Park

BRIAN:
It has been an interesting evening. You are right about the SPC's forecasting techniques... isolated events typically don't get watches. Plus, this one really came out of nowhere...

Thanks for the rainfall totals!
Jamie

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291 and 3rd street in Lee's Summit. Our patio didn't even get wet under the umbrella!
Nothing this round. 2 inches since Friday

DEBBIE:
Thanks for the update! You must be on the wrong side of Lee's Summit!
Jamie

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We got .75 inches of rain here in south Raytown this afternoon and evening. That brings our total to 4.25 inches in the last 48 hours.

Kristi

KRISTI:
Thanks for the new info! I am using it tonight at 10pm!
Jamie

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Amazingly enough, after all this rain, the dirt is still about 3/4 of an inch away from my foundation! I hope we will get some gentle rain that soaks in but beggars can't be choosers!!
Tim

TIM:
Wow.. that just goes to show you how dry we've been!
Jamie

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Jamie-
Thank you for your comments on the site, it's appreciated. Also, thought I thought I would miss it, on the Weather Plus station on Comcast, I saw your rainfall totals for the area. Thank you for putting Grain Valley on the map! YAY! Much obliged!

Ok, since this is old topic, will KISSilly, and leave it at that!

-Matt

MATT:
Glad you got to see the graphic... thanks for keeping us updated!
Jamie