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WOW
How did you like that lightning show last night?? Pretty amazing... torrential rains to go along with it. And my goodness... did the rain come down!! Here is a look at doppler estimates, with some actual measurements placed on the map:

This morning, there are still some spotty showers/thunderstorms out there. To see where any rain is right NOW... check out LIVE ESP. Our frontal boundary is virtually right OVER us:

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Sooooo we can't rule OUT showers/thunderstorms through the afternoon hours... HOWEVER... I do think that we will go through a dry PERIOD. Overnight, the chance of rain is higher once again. The low level jet is forecasted to strengthen over Kansas late tonight:

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AND if thunderstorms get going... we are in Southwest flow aloft... so they could drift our way:

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THEN another (relatively) dry period is possible Sunday afternoon/evening... before ANOTHER round of heavy rain is possible on Monday. Keep us posted on your rainfall totals... I will blog later tonight with an update!
Jamie
Posted by at August 26, 2006 6:58 AM
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Hey Jamie....here is how the rain fall went in N Grain Valley, MO.... Morning (.10), Afternoon (1.00), Evening (1.85) for a GRAND TOTAL OF : 2.95 INCHES!
Thanks
Chris
CHRIS:
Great to hear... thanks for the report!!
Jamie
Posted by: Chris at August 26, 2006 7:26 AM
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Good Morning Jamie,
SW corner of Lawrence checking in and we have had 1.38" for the last 24 hours.
Also appears that the bulk of the storm stayed slightly to the North of this end of the city as we certainly did not receive the sort of winds or rain that rolled through Topeka.
Bob
BOB,
As always, thank you for keeping us updated on Lawrence. It sounds like you got some good rains out there, after being missed several times before. Rain chances continue off and on all weekend, so you may even pick up more.
Jamie
Posted by: Bob from Lawrence at August 26, 2006 7:45 AM
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Hi Jamie,
So far, my rain guage in Gardner shows just about 0.9". So not quite the 2"+ they received to my neighbor up north, Olathe. Must have just missed the really heavy rain, though it sounded like it was coming down pretty hard several times during the overnight, so I'm a little perplexed... Any chance for more beneficial rain for those of us farther south?
Terry
TERRY:
Sorry to hear you didn't get the heavy stuff... but YES there is a chance for more soaking rain for Gardner through MONDAY!
Jamie
Posted by: Terry at August 26, 2006 7:47 AM
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Finally! 1.52" in northern Lenexa. The storms last night were incredible! I have not seen lightning like that for a long time. I had nearly constant lightning bolts overhead from 9:30 all the way to about 2am, even when the closest rain was miles away. Any more for tonight?
David
DAVID:
How exciting! There is a CHANCE of more rain tonight... and on Sunday/Monday.
Jamie
Posted by: David at August 26, 2006 8:14 AM
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Jamie, I had 1.75in at 148& Metcalf.
SANDY:
Good numbers, and there could be more before the weekend is over.
Jamie
Posted by: Sandy at August 26, 2006 8:29 AM
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2.75 inches - 119th and Quivira in Overland Park
TFISH:
Wow, thank you for your total!
Jamie
Posted by: TFish at August 26, 2006 8:51 AM
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Hi Jamie!! In Pleasanton KS we recieved 1.5 inches. I sure hope we get some more of that this weekend!!! Have a great day. Monica
MONICA:
There is a break right now... but the chance of rain will continue (on and off) all weekend. Thanks for your report!
Jamie
Posted by: Monica at August 26, 2006 9:05 AM
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1.93" overnight in Tonganoxie, most of it falling before midnight.
JAKE:
Let's see if Tonganoxie can break the 2" mark by the end of the weekend! ;)
Thanks for your info,
Jamie
Posted by: Jake at August 26, 2006 9:44 AM
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Here in Olathe,KS my weather Station said we got 2.20" of Rain NICE!!
ANDREW:
That IS nice! 2.2" is one of the higher amounts... you are lucky!
Jamie
Posted by: Andrew at August 26, 2006 9:52 AM
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We had about 1.66 inches of rain here in south Raytown since last night. It is so welcome! We are not going to empty the rain gauge until after the weekend. We want to see how much rainfall we get. I would love to see us get a lot more rain since it has been so dry here.
Kristi
KRISTI:
Let us know how much you end up with. There could be another round later today... more overnight and on Sunday (AND even Monday)!!
Jamie
Posted by: Kristi at August 26, 2006 10:10 AM
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I just put up a rain guage last night 5 minutes before it started raining. Just in time, 2.1 inches in south Grain Valley.
Chris B.
CHRIS:
Great timing! Keep us posted through the weekend!
Jamie
Posted by: Chris B at August 26, 2006 10:12 AM
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Jamie,
Was just looking at one of the computer model runs this morning and it is indicating lows in the 40's and 50's early next week. Which for sure sound mighty nice.
Don't suppose you are willing to crawl out on that same limb are you.
Bob
BOB:
*Maybe* some 50s... but I don't think 40s just yet!
Jamie
Posted by: Bob from Lawrence at August 26, 2006 10:46 AM
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Good morning Jamie,
We are on the north side of Independence and since Friday, we have had 1.5 inches of rain..Yay!!! It was wonderful going to sleep last night with the rain and thunder going on :)
I wanted to compliment the whole station for having such a great weather team. All of you seem to be so in sync with each other. Reading your blogs are just reading like Gary's. On another station, the weather team seem to vary on their forcasts from each other. But you all really do compliment each other all the way around.
DONNA:
Thank you so much for your rainfall totals, and your nice comments! We really try to work as a team here... we are all in-touch throughout the week... talking about the forecast. I love that about us... we really are a TEAM! We will think things through together, bounce scenarios off each other... and in the end, we think we have the best product in town! We're glad you noticed!
Jamie
Posted by: Donna at August 26, 2006 10:58 AM
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Jamie,
I had 3.15 inches of rain at 103rd and Antioch. There was a lot of cloud to ground lightning with the storms.
Devin
DEVIN:
Wow... that IS the highest amount reported yet!! We haven't had a thunderstorm event like that in a loooong time!
Jamie
Posted by: Devin at August 26, 2006 11:57 AM
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Hi, Jamie. Last night, we picked up an even 2" here in Emma. The Thursday night - Friday morning rains had already given us 1.8", so we're already on the threshhold of 4" for this system.
PASTOR:
Thanks for the report! Hopefully flooding won't become too much of a problem...
Jamie
Posted by: Pastor Walter Snyder at August 26, 2006 12:00 PM
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2.7 by Ward Pkwy Mall.
Posted by: Hank at August 26, 2006 1:31 PM
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2.5" yesterday and another 2" today in Marshall!
DARIN:
That is amazing... thank you for sharing it with us!
Jamie
Posted by: Darin at August 26, 2006 2:52 PM
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3.25" at 95th & Antioch and a very nice lightning show
Posted by: joe at August 26, 2006 3:11 PM
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Jamie - The Dog registed .56" on Thursday/Friday AM, then 1.23" last nite - 1.79" so far. BTW that TS in the Carribean is not looking too good for the Gulf area - here comes higher gas prices, not to mention N.O. could be affected again. Not looking good - hope that changes.
Dog
DOG:
I know... I have been worring about higher gas prices since last week with the potential of this thing. It is now forecast to become a Cat 3 in the Gulf... yikes...
Glad to hear about your rainfall!!!
Jamie
Posted by: StormDog at August 26, 2006 3:20 PM
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hey Jamie, do you know how much rain we got on the plaza? I didn't see anyone post that. thanks
MARK:
Here at the station we got about .8" since midnight... but you could have seen higher amounts at your end of the Plaza.
Jamie
Posted by: mark at August 26, 2006 4:05 PM
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Jamie,
Not sure how much we received last night, but we had some pretty good soakers up here in the Shoal Creek area. It was pouring quite a bit. We had a lot of flashes, but didn't seem to have a lot of the bolts that I've seen in other storms. We also had some pretty good downpours during the day yesterday.
As far as the 40s and 50s for next week, sounds great. Every year back home in New England there were a couple of trees on the way to work that would always start to change on August 23rd or 24th without fail. I'd love to get some real fall weather.
MATT:
ANYthing to scour out this humidity!! Fall is my favorite season... I am really looking forward to it, too!!
Jamie
Posted by: Matt at August 26, 2006 4:25 PM
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1.5" overnight in Lenexa east of SM Park
Posted by: robert at August 26, 2006 6:36 PM
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Hi: Just walked outside and noted the altocumulus field all over the place - I've seen this before, and have seen thunderstorms erupt after dark, after seeing that kind of cloud formation - instability is what it represents, in the mid-layer I believe ...so we shall see.
Dog
DOG:
I *am* expecting more rain tonight into tomorrow morning.
Jamie
Posted by: StormDog at August 26, 2006 8:08 PM
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Hello Mrs. Jarosik,
Not sure how much we got here in Leavenworth but somewhere close to an inch and a half. Do you expect any rain to develop to our west and affect us later tonight? Do you think that the rain to our south will miss us to the south?
HI, BEN:
That rain to the south will mainly affect the southern portion of our viewing area tonight. It is actually weakening on the north edge as it moves in. (I typed too soon... it is now strengthening!) Anyway... there is the potential for additional thunderstorms to develop as the night goes on!
Jamie
Posted by: Ben Tracy at August 26, 2006 8:08 PM
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Hi Jamie:
I was just looking at the radar (ESP) and I see a big blob of Thunderstorms to our south and east. I also went tot he SPC web site, and I see that their is a watch just to our south. Is all that mess going to move this way? If so, we are in for another long night. I love the rain and thunder, but last night I could not sleep! :-)
I also noticed that it is going to rain (likely) through Monday. Wow!
By the way, how do you come up with the percentage chance of rain? Is there a formula you use? Is it data from the models? Do you flip a coin (I could not help myself!) How does your team define the PoP? I know it can mean different things to different people. Some say it means % of time (in a 24 hour period) that it we will have rain (or snow); some say that it is the % of coverage area, and some say that it is % out of 100 that it will rain. I guess it also means that your confidence is either high or low that it will rain. So again, how do you define it?
I have an idea: Always forecast 50% chance of rain, because then if it rains you are correct, and if it does not rain you are correct. Sorry, I could not help myself! Keep up the good work!
Brian - Overland Park
BRIAN:
That batch of thunderstorms that is southwest of KC will affect parts of the southern viewing area. We will watch for additional thunderstorms to develop overnight... and, yes... we could see some heavy rain again. Rainfall chances are based on our confidence in the rain happening! The models do put out those statistics as well.
Here is how we use it:
A 40% chance of rain means there is a 40% chance that measurable rain will fall in the area. Sometimes we tweak that for KC... ie, we might have a 30% chance of showers for the Metro... and then a 60% chance of rain for, say, St. Joseph. Does that make sense?
Jamie
Posted by: Brian E. Erwin at August 26, 2006 8:59 PM
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Measured exactly 4" here on Missouri side next to Leawood KS.
CLIFF:
Your section of the viewing area the heaviest rains overnight! Keep us posted!
Jamie
Posted by: Cliff W at August 26, 2006 10:27 PM
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That rain was great last night...we really needed it and could use some more. My folks live in central Kansas, and could use some sent their way. Do they have any in store?
CADE:
Central Kansas may see SOME rain... but not nearly the way we are seeing it!
Jamie
Posted by: Cade Russell at August 26, 2006 10:33 PM
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Well, here is my rain report, yesterday got 1.72 inches of rain for Grain Valley, MO, as I stand now with the first round of heavy rain, 1.15 inches since midnight. At this point with more to come! Yay!
2:20am 8/27/06
MATT:
Thanks for keeping us updated! I will try to get a bloggers-rainfall-totals graphic done for the shows tonight!
Jamie
Posted by: GVWX - Matt at August 27, 2006 2:21 AM
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