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Summer in October

The pattern the next 5-8 days will be dominated by a summerlike anticyclone centered in the Tennessee Valley (see map 1 below). In about 8-10 days we will see some big changes. It will start with the west coast trough shifting east (see map 2 ). After that anything goes. It is an exciting time of year as the pattern undergoes huge changes. And, it is these changes, this time of year, that will have an affect on our whole winter (Gary's theory).

MAP 1, CLICK TO ENLARGE

MAP 2, CLICK TO ENLARGE

Posted by at 9:06 PM | Comments (2)

Email from Gary!

Good afternoon, everyone! Gary is on vacation in Las Vegas this week... he will be back to work on TUESDAY. But even though he is out there having fun... he is still thinking about us. AND spending money on us. :) He posted this blog comment this morning:

Hey weather team,

Gary
********************************************

We are actually going to have some pool-weather of our own here in Kansas City! We are still thinking around 80 for Saturday... and then upper 80s to near 90 are possible Sunday/Monday!! Record highs on those days are:

Sunday: 92
Monday: 94

... so I don't think we'll be setting any new records. But we could be close!

Meantime... I got the email below from our weekend anchor, Keith King. His friend has been taking care of a stray puppy... and now they are trying to find her a home:

She is a 4 month old black lab mix (the vet wasn't too sure what the cross was) with a great personality and needs a really really good home w/ lots of room to run. She has been absolutely wonderful w/ my son who's 6 and his friends. We have her pretty much potty trained but she he still needs her shots and to be spade. If you know anyone looking for a new little companion please give me a call or email. Honestly, I would keep her if I had more time and a yard... she is WONDERFUL!!!

What a sweetheart! If anyone is interested... email Keith King at king@nbcactionnews.com!

That's all for now... it's pretty quiet around here!
Jamie

Posted by at 4:01 PM | Comments (6)

Back on the Upswing

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 64
LOW: 47

Today has been a beautiful Fall day... and did you happen to catch that firey sunset?? If not, we are capturing a timelapse and will show it tonight at 10pm.

As we've talked about, this cooler weather will be short-lived as an upper ridge begins to build towards Kansas City. By the end of the weekend we could be in the mid-to-upper 80s!!!!!!

Friday and Saturday will be our "transition" days... as the trough departs and the ridge advances. We should see highs in the lower to mid 70s on Friday... depending on cloud cover. There may be some high clouds around early on... but the sun should come out more as the day goes on. Saturday we will make a run at 80 degrees... we think we'll stop short, though... probably in the upper-70s.

Then, things could get out of control by Sunday! Take a look at these 850mb temperatures:

Click to enlarge

These are temperatures about 5,000 feet up. We use this chart to track the movement of airmasses... rather than a surface chart... because at the surface, temperatures will have a big swing between nighttime and daytime readings. (An example is Friday. We'll start off in the 40s and warm into the 70s for the afternoon hours.) Anyway... these 850 temps are very warm; 21 degrees Celsius. At the surface... it could be 82 to 87 degrees!

So for the second half of the weekend and for the first part of next week, it should feel more like summer around here. We are still watching the front for the middle part of next week. There's a lot of uncertainty on where that sucker will be... but we have a small rain chance in the forecast for early Wednesday.

Have a great night!!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:28 PM | Comments (6)

Fast Changing Pattern

The upper level pattern the next 3-4 days will be undergoing some rapid changes. A deep trough is swinging through the Midwest Thursday, bringing us the cool weather (see map 1, valid 1 PM Thursday). By Sunday a broad ridge will cover the Plains (see map 2, valid 7 AM Sunday). This will allow for a summer-like airmass to move in. The humidity will be creeping up as well. It is going to be rather warm for the Chiefs game with highs at least in the mid 80s. It was 73 for the home opener.

The warmth & humidity may lead to T-Storms sometime next week as a front tries to get near us.

MAP 1, Click to Enlarge

MAP 2 Click to Enlarge

Posted by at 10:09 PM | Comments (5)

Temp Swings!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 82
LOW: 51

It feels a little like summer out there... (well, summer WITHOUT the humidity!) In fact, it is a rather nice afternoon... with highs in the lower 80s and wall-to-wall sunshine!

We are tracking an approaching cold front for Wednesday. As we talked about over the weekend... this front will bring a BIG temperature change to the area. It is also going to bring us a slight chance of rain! There is not a whole lot of moisture for this system to work with... so amounts should be light... but we've at least upped the rain chance to 40%. Here is the accumulated rain forecasted by the NAM/WRF and the GFS... note the heaviest rain could end up northeast of KC:

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Then COOLER COOLER COOLER for Thursday/Friday!! Highs will be near 60 on Thursday... and we are still seeing a chance for a scattered light frost Friday morning. But this more fall-like weather won't last long, either!! Believe it or not, we could be into the 80s by the end of the weekend... more to come later!

Enjoy the day!
Jamie

Posted by at 3:16 PM | Comments (7)

Ups and Downs

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 70
LOW: 58

After about 7 days with highs in the 60s and 70s... we will be on an up-swing for the first part of the week. Ahead of an approaching cold front... our highs should climb into the lower 80s by Tuesday. This is the upward part of the "roller coaster ride" Jeff described yesterday! Here is a look at the warm air coming in ahead of the front:

Click to enlarge

The front itself does not have a lot of moisture to work with... so the chance of rain is pretty minimal. But what we WILL notice with the passage of this front is much cooler air working in! Wednesday is an iffy day... with clouds around, we could be in the upper 70s... but then Thursday and Friday should see highs in the 60s! You can see the colder air pouring in behind the front:

Click to enlarge

The particular map above is for Friday morning... which could bring our first frost, believe it or not! Lows could dip into the upper 30s, depending on cloud cover. Then we look to get warmer again for next weekend.

So temperature swings will be the rule this week... we will update you as we go along! Gary is heading to Vegas... I am sure he is very glad that he won't miss any real "exciting" weather while he is gone! :)
Jamie

Posted by at 8:44 PM | Comments (7)

FIRST FROST?

The pattern the next 6-10 days will be characterized by northwest flow. This time of year this means mainly dry weather with roller coaster temperatures. Cold & warm fronts will be zipping by with little or no moisture to work with.

There is a system to watch for Wednesday-Friday that will dive south into the Midwest, carving out a pretty deep trough (see upper flow for Thursday below). This will drag a strong cold front through Wednesday night. By Thursday night Canadian high pressure wil be sitting right near KC. This will provide for perfect radiational cooling conditions (light winds, clear skies & dry air). Our temperatures could drop into the mid 30s. This means Friday morning we have a chance for our first frost of the new cold season.

CLICK TO ENLARGE

Posted by at 9:01 PM | Comments (3)

Weather Pattern

Good evening,

I am on vacation beginning Saturday. Las Vegas here I come. I can't wait. I plan on making it into a relaxing vacation. When I get back I am expecting EVERYTHING in the weather pattern to have changed.

The evolution of our new unique pattern may begin as early as October 1st or so. But, I believe it is more like October 10th where the huge changes occur. The entire pattern is in chaotic transition right now. Look at the two maps below:

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid next Wednesday)

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid 10 days from now)

Try to track the upper level flow in the next two weeks. Everything is changing and different things again will start happening. Then between October 10th and November 10th the new pattern sets up and then we have to live with it for 10 months. So, everyone....please think positively. We need to help Mother Nature this year. We are capable of having an exciting pattern aren't we?

Have a great week. Jeff, Jamie, and Brett will be covering the bases. Speaking of baseball.....go Dodgers!

Gary

Posted by at 6:03 PM | Comments (6)

Severe weather threat well off to the east

Good morning everyone,

The National Weather Service put out a statement yesterday that painted a huge severe weather threat for the region. Our weather team was a bit baffled based on the data we were looking at. We still have to monitor the situation closely today but the deep moisture is well off to the east early today and this should limit the severe weather threat to central and eastern Missouri as the second storm dropping into the Rockies shears out tonight and moves across early Saturday. So, we should have a beautiful day.


Click to enlarge

Above, you can see how the high dewpoints are located well to the south and east early today. I circled (or put a sqare around them) the dewpoint temperatures. It is early this morning but this shows where the deep moisture has shifted off to the east. We will be tracking the surface conditions all day. The higher dewpoints may be pulled back to the west as the second storm approaches. This could lead to a band of rain early Saturday morning. The rest of the weekend should be dry!

Gary

Posted by at 6:21 AM | Comments (9)

Severe weather threat on Friday

We are monitoring a complex weather situation for Friday. For more information, go to the following link from the National Weather Service. We will have more later.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_story.php?wfo=eax&storyid=3729&source=0

Posted by at 5:00 PM | Comments (11)

Strong upper level storm

Good afternoon everyone,

(See the previous entry for the surface development this afternoon)

A very strong upper level storm is developing by Thursday morning look at the GFS forecast for 7 AM. An upper low and vigorous vort max has bottomed out near the southeast corner of Colorado. This will now move northeast into Kansas during the day passing to our northwest Thursday night. This will cause a strong surface low to develop, so if you have a barometer watch it fall like a rock tomorrow into tomorrow night. Notice the diffluent flow aloft over eastern Kansas (look how the lines spread apart with one going north over northern Kansas and one going east northeast over eastern Kansas). When the air aloft is divergent the air below will rise to replace the escaping air. So this means there will be wide spread ascent of the air and thunderstorms are the likely result. Moisture is limited but we should have some widespread rainfall before this system lifts out. Various things could still go wrong but I am not counting on any of them at this moment.
Click to enlarge (500 mb flow Thursday at 7 AM)

Have a great day! I will have extensive coverage of this developing storm tonight at 5, 6 and 10 PM.

Gary

Posted by at 11:27 AM | Comments (18)

Developing storm

Good morning,

I will do another entry on our thoughts about this storm later today. Until then here is a surface map lesson for those of you interested. The first map below shows the RUC forecast for 4 PM this afternoon. You can see the developing storm at the surface in response to a vigorous storm in the upper levels which I will show you later today.

Click to enlarge....valid 4 PM today

So, can you plot all of the fronts, troughs, lows, highs? Below is the map that I quickly drew on some of the features. By no means did I go into extensive detail on the entire map, but I did plot the features around our developing storm system. It is a very well defined surface cyclone and when you have well defined features like these then you know it is a strong storm. The one thing missing is an abundance of low level moisture. But, some moisture will be sucked out of the Gulf of Mexico just as the storm approaches us tomorrow. More later on the upper levels and the new data.

Click to enlarge....Parameters drawn on map

Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 8:39 AM | Comments (4)

Tough forecast

Good morning everyone,

The weather pattern continues to go through what I call "chaotic changes". There isn't much organization to the weather pattern and it looks different every few days. We did get some rain on Sunday morning but we are still way behind average rainfall for the month. September is often a wet month and October is often a dry one. So, hopefully we will catch up soon.

There is a good chance we will catch up a little bit as two storm systems are moving our way. Look below at the evolution of the upper level flow. Look at the Pacific Northwest. A strong shortwave trough is digging into the longwave trough position.

Click to enlarge (Thursday morning GFS forecast)

Click to enlarge (Friday morning GFS forecast)

Did you notice how a shortwave can become an upper low? Storm #2 was just a wave of energy diving south from near Seattle. It then forms into an upper low by Friday morning. The evolution of this developing storm will affect the weekend. Based on the trend I think there will be a somewhat significant rain event, but will it be here or all around us AGAIN? Think about that shortwave for a second on Thursday morning's map. This is the 60 hour forecast from last nights GFS model. So, that shortwave is moving across the Pacific, right now, as some energy then it gathers strength as it digs towards a longwave trough position which has been slowly forming over the Rockies. By 84 hours, or Friday morning, the shortwave has formed into an upper low and now is strong enough to affect the surface. How this storm evolves in the upper levels will be crucial to how we are affected this weekend. This is one big reason why forecasting the weather is very difficult. We are forecasting a storm system that is NOT THERE at this moment. It will either be stronger than predicted or much weaker and move by faster. The trend is for it to be stronger. I will certainly be going into detail tonight on the air.

Storm #1 will try to take the limited moisture east of our region and this could be a major factor for storm #2. But, if storm #2 is strong enough it will pull the moisture back into it. Is this exciting for you? It is for me. But, we have been through so many misses and non events that I am still concerned that this will pull something on us again.

Statistic of the day (Days 85 degrees or higher):
August 26th to September 22nd

2005: 22 days 85 degrees or higher

2006: 2 days 85 degrees or higher

So our summer was cut short as it seemed to end on August 26th which is pretty amazing considering how hot it was! In the end we had a short and hot summer that was drier than average, but only a little bit.

Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 6:24 AM | Comments (9)

Dry until Thursday

Good morning,

Sunset Sunday evening

It was 92 degrees Saturday followed by some nice thunderstorms Sunday morning before sunrise. Our next chance of rain may come on Thursday. If the upper level storm tracks to our north as it does on the 06z NAM model then we could have just one quick band of showers or thunderstorms and that is it. If it digs harder and further south then we will have a better chance of heavy rain.

click to enlarge (84 hour NAM valid Thursday afternoon)

The GFS digs the storm a bit harder west of us. I don't have a feel on this storm yet. The wave digging into the Pacific Northwest will likely carve out a deeper trough near us by Saturday. A lot of activity, but will we see any rain out of these systems? We should have a much more precise forecast by later today.

Tonight we should dip down close to 40 degrees. Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 7:43 AM | Comments (6)

Feeling Like Fall

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 82 (midnight high... afternoon temps have been in the 60s!)
LOW: 62

The early morning showers and thunderstorms brought some welcomed rain... and no severe weather to the Metro! Here is a round-up of rainfall amounts:

KCI: .96"
DOWNTOWN: .56"
OLATHE: .55"
TOPEKA: .55"
ST. JOSEPH: .78"
EMPORIA: .70"
CHILLICOTHE: .14"
LAWRENCE: .28"
SEDALIA: .31
KIRKSVILLE: .93"
KNOB NOSTER: 1.15"

Here is a look at the doppler estimated rainfall totals... It looks like Dog still has the whole black-hole effect going on... Blue Springs and the SE side of the Metro continues to be very dry:

We have been stuck under clouds, throught the day... left-over from thunderstorms that increased to our south. They should clear out a bit as we head through the overnight hours... and that will allow temperatures to drop to almost chilly readings! Upper 40s to around 50 degrees!

Cool, but quiet weather will continue Monday and Tuesday. Then we should start a return-flow set up Wed/Thu... bringing warmer air in. And of course... not too far behind that... is a rain chance! It is still a changing forecast... but we could see rain Thursday into Friday. We will update you as we go along!

I can't believe it's just about half time... and there is still no score! Come on, Chiefs!! I REALLY dislike the Broncos!!!!! I grew up a Browns fan... and I think it has something to do with "The Drive". ;)
Jamie

Posted by at 4:09 PM | Comments (5)

Hot and Severe

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 92
LOW: 70

We made it into the lower 90s today, with all that sunshine out there! And, indeed, it was windy! Gusts were reported in the 45 mph range across Kansas! You'll notice a BIG difference in the temperatures AND the wind direction for Sunday.

We have been dealing with the warm southerly winds ahead of our storm:

Click to enlarge

Thunderstorms have errupted in Kansas, ahead of the front. Here is a look at ESP this evening:

Click above ESP for the most current image

And there are watches and warnings to go along with the thunderstorms! Check out the watches out from the US/Canadian border all the way down into Northern Texas:

Click to enlarge

We may or may not go into a watch... I do think these storms will tend to weaken as they head our way. But they still could be strong enough to kick off some wind damage.

On the other side of this front... comes the wind-shift and the cooler temperatures! Check it out... first the HOT temps TODAY:

Click to enlarge

Then about 15-20 degrees COOLER on SUNDAY:

Click to enlarge

And then likely another 10 degrees or so COOLER on MONDAY:

Click to enlarge

This time of year is the best... if you like changes! :)
Have a good night!
Jamie

Posted by at 9:12 PM | Comments (3)

Another Weekend... Another Chance!

Well it wouldn't be a weekend around here, without the chance of rain, right?? ;) There are ongoing thunderstorms in our northern viewing area this morning:

Click image for current ESP

These thunderstorms are moving northeast at a pretty good clip... so they shouldn't last past the morning hours. But while they are around, those northern communities can expect brief heavy downpours, lightning and gusty winds! Most of the afternoon will be dry, windy and warm... but the chance of thunderstorms again increases overnight. The SPC has us in a SLIGHT RISK:

Click to enlarge

Damaging winds and hail will be the main threats for us. Isolated tornadoes are possible today... the best chance is well to the north of KC:

Click to enlarge

I will have an update this evening! Enjoy the day!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:05 AM | Comments (7)

Wild changes

Happy Friday everyone!

The weather pattern is continuing to go through some rather wild changes as the seasons are changing. A winter storm watch is in effect for higher elevations in Montana. The jet stream is strengthening. What causes the jet stream to exist and strengthen? The answer is......temperature contrasts. The jet stream is driven by the "thermal wind". When thinking of how the thermal wind sets up think of the polar jet stream. To the north of the polar jet stream the air is cold. Since the air is cold the thickness values (and heights) are lower since cold air is more dense. To the south of the polar jet stream the air is relatively warmer. Since air is warmer the thickness values are higher since warm air is less dense. A north to south temperature gradient is set up and the height values slope over this distance. When height values slope (think of height contours close together on upper level charts) the pressure gradient force is put into action. It is the Pressure Gradient Force that causes the wind to blow. Whether it is the jet stream, a mid-latitude cyclone or a sea breeze it is the change in temperature over distance that sets the wind in motion. The thermal wind occurs above the boundary layer since friction is not an influence on altering the wind direction aloft.

So what does this mean? The thermal wind is a wind that flows parallel to the temperature gradient in the troposphere. The thermal wind explains the magnitude and direction the wind will take when a temperature change occurs over a horizontal distance. In simpler terms......the thermal wind is a direct result of temperature contrasts. At this time of the year the temperature contrasts are growing stronger and as a result so is the jet stream.

Below, you can see the front coming through on Sunday on the first map. The second and third maps show the strange developing pattern for early next week. The trough is positively tilted as it is moving across the plains, but then by early Wednesday morning there is a strong shortwave trough swinging into the plains. This is causing a surface cyclone to form over Oklahoma. This would bring us a cold rain on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. But, is this right? It is changing every day.

Click to enlarge (Surface valid Sunday morning)

Click to enlarge (500 flow Tuesday night)

Click to enlarge (Surface valid Wednesday morning)

The bottom line.......the weather is getting exciting. Now, let's get some actual real time weather and then it won't just be on the computer models. Tonight on the newscasts we will be tracking all of these features. I just wish I had 10 minutes to explain it all. But, I only get 3 1/2 minutes per show and we will be working to put together a nice weather intensive show tonight. I love this time of year. But, winter is my favorite season.

Have a great weekend.

Gary

Posted by at 6:53 AM | Comments (19)

El Nino and our weather

Good morning everyone,

Jeff and I are back from a seminar in Madison, Wisconsin. We learned some tips and tricks that will allow us to have the best weather graphics in Kansas City. It will be another few weeks until we get some of these new additions into the weathercast. They will help tell the weather story each night. It will take a lot of effort and creativity to help enhance our weathercasts and continue to make them the best. We will be putting this effort in as November approaches.

While we were in Madison it rained almost the entire time. It is amazing how the weather is so different just two states away. Maybe the weather pattern over the next year will bring us some exciting storm systems like Madison had the past few days. They are about 5 inches of rain above average for the year and it is lush and green up there.

Now....to our weather pattern which is in constant change at this moment. El Nino....El Nino....El Nino. Yes, it appears that El Nino has developed. What is it? What does it mean for our weather? And, what are my opinions. You can read the entire report from the National Weather Service at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.html

Here are the excerpts from the report:

El Niño conditions have developed and are likely to continue into early 2007!

Typical El Niño effects are likely to develop over North America during the upcoming winter season. Those include warmer-than-average temperatures over western and central Canada, and over the western and northern United States. Wetter-than-average conditions are likely over portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, while drier-than-average conditions can be expected in the Ohio Valley, the Pacific Northwest, and most of the U.S.-affiliated islands in the north tropical Pacific.

El Nino is the warming of the tropical Pacific waters. This warming will affect the weather patterns around the world and this includes our weather pattern across the United States. We will have to keep monitoring this developing El Nino closely to see how strong it may get.

So, what do I think about this developing El Nino? I definitely believe it will affect and influence our weather pattern. But, I also believe that our weather pattern will form independent of El Nino and become established by early November and then begin cycling. Whatever pattern does set up will then be influenced by the developing and strengthening El Nino. El Nino will help strengthen the subtropical jetstream especially when we have split flow. If you look historically at El Nino and how it influences Kansas City weather you will find that there is no strong correlation one way or the other when it comes to snowfall, rainfall, and temperatures. This should clearly show you that it only influences our weather pattern and it is MORE dependent on what the pattern is than anything else. And, the pattern will be setting up during the next 45 days regardless of what El Nino is doing? This is what I believe. This doesn't mean I don't think El Nino will have an impact. I strongly believe that it will. But, when other meteorologists come on and say that this or that event is "because" of El Nino I just scream. Strange weather events happen every year.

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid Sunday night)

Click to enlarge (Surface flow valid Sunday night)

Above, you can see the weather pattern forecasted for later this weekend. The trough moving across is positively tilted....again. So, there is little chance of widespread lift and this will likely limit the chance of rain to a short period of time as the front blows through. The exact timing of the front is still uncertain. If the base of the upper level trough can be a bit stronger with more curvature, thus deepening the trough a bit, then the front would slow down and we could have a better chance of thunderstorms. This is what we will look for during the next few computer model runs.

Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 6:27 AM | Comments (12)

Can't Beat It!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 78
LOW: 53

What a great day across the area! A nice cool refreshing start... some local spots even dipped down into the mid-40s this morning:

And the afternoon was just spectacular! Mostly sunny, with comfortable highs in the 70s:

It's almost like just stepping outside today could lift your mood! Didn't it seem like everyone was so happy today? ;)

As I talked about yesterday, we're still expecting the 80s to return for Thurs, Fri & Sat... (you can see they even edged into the Western part of the viewing area today.) THEN comes our next storm to bring a major change as we go into the second half of the weekend!! You can see the trough forming in the Pacific Northwest on this evening's satellite image:

Click to enlarge

That trough is forecast to deepen into the Northern Plains over the next few days. Here is the GFS forecast for Sunday morning:

Click to enlarge

The storm will bring a cold front through the area on Sunday. There is not a WHOLE lot of moisture showing up... but it does bring a CHANCE of some showers and thunderstorms for Saturday night/Sunday. Then... the COOL stuff arrives next week! Highs Monday through Wednesday look to be rather cool... right now I am going for 70-ish... with overnight lows the coolest we've seen yet this season... in the 40s.

Meantime... Hurricane Gordon has a very well-defined eye... as a strong Category 2 storm:

Click to enlarge

The good news... Gordon is not a threat to land... and should weaken over the next few days.

Gary & Jeff are back in town... safe and sound! Gary's back on air tomorrow, while I take a couple of days off. I'll see you Saturday!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:10 PM

Looking for Sun

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 67
LOW: 59

Well, the clouds did indeed hang tough today! And with cooler air in place... it REALLY felt like fall! Fall doesn't officially begin for 10 days, though... Friday Sept. 22nd just after 11pm. A solid deck of stratus clouds finally began to break up late this afternoon... and here is what is left as of 6pm:

Click to enlarge

Mostly clear skies overnight could lead to patch fog development as we head into the early morning hours. And while we may start Wednesday with fog... the afternoon will be absolutely BEAUTIFUL!! We should see plenty of sunshine, and nice temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s. The warming trend will continue Thursday, when temperatures will be in the 80s again!

You can see the dramatic change in temperatures from today:

Click to enlarge

.... to Friday:

Click to enlarge

Then we're tracking a storm for the weekend!! More details to come... enjoy the nice cool night! Tomorrow morning we will likey see temps in the upper 40s/lower 50s!!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:59 PM | Comments (10)

Clouds Hang Tough

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 78
LOW: 63

We've seen quite a bit of cloud cover today, as expected! Those clouds broke up for a little bit this afternoon... that allowed the sun to shine through and warm things up into the mid-upper 70s across the area. But now there are more clouds rolling in, as you can see on the afternoon visible satellite image:

Click to enlarge

Tuesday could start off with fog/drizzle in the area... and the clouds look like they will hold on for most of the day. They may break up a little towards the later afternoon hours... and any sun would warm temps up again... but it really does look like an even COOLER day! Look at the surface temperatures to our north (in RED):

Click to enlarge

This secondary shot of cooler air will be riding in on Northerly winds, as you can see! Highs Tuesday should stay in the 60s, with lows Wednesday morning in the lower-mid 50s!

I should also add a bit on the tropics this evening. Hurricane Florence hit Bermuda today. Pounding surf and powerful winds knocked out power to about 25,000 homes and businesses on the island. Winds gusted to 100 mph, and took down power lines, blew out windows and stripped trees of their branches. The good news... no reports of any injuries or deaths. Florence, a pretty large hurricane... looks impressive on the satellite image:

Click to see loop

Florence should curve AWAY from the US East coast... but it will still bring about some rough waters there:

Click to enlarge

PLUS... another Tropical Storm has formed! This is TS Gordon... which is unfortunately... also heading towards Bermuda:

Click to enlarge

It's sort of fitting that the tropics are suddenly becoming active, as we are just about one day passed the peak mark of hurricane season!

In other news... Gary and Jeff are in Madison, Wisconsin today through Wednesday... so I am filling in. I am sure they are both very happy, because it is raining there today! :) They are getting some extensive training on our graphic system... and will both be back in the forecast center on Thursday.

Have a great night!
Jamie

Posted by at 4:06 PM | Comments (3)

Rain Chances Linger

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 73
LOW: 66

Today, we picked up some more rain across the area! Here are some of the running totals, as of 5pm:

KCI: .53"
DOWNTOWN: .28"
TOPEKA: 1.34"
LAWRENCE: .20"
OLATHE: .18"
CHILLICOTHE: .18"
ST. JOSEPH: .74"
MANHATTAN: 1.06"
EMPORIA: .12"

This evening, there are ongoing showers and thunderstorms SOUTH and EAST of the Metro... with a nice break in the rain for the immediate Metro. However... the sun has peeked out a bit... and that helps to de-stabilize the atmosphere! Even though we have been worked-over by rain earlier today... if the instability can prove to be enough... ADDITIONAL showers and thunderstorms could develop west of us. This is what we will be watching for the evening/overnight.

Above is the ESP image from 5:30pm. I have circled the area to watch for deveoping thunderstorms! Monday and Tuesday still look rather cool, we're still in the trough, and the clouds should hang around!
Have a great evening!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:07 PM | Comments (7)

Evening Update

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 72
LOW: 66

Goooood evening, everyone! Well today, the Metro saw a loooong break in the rain after this morning's activity. I think most of the rain tonight will stay NORTH and WEST of Kansas City, as well. Here is the NAM/WRF's take on what will happen... rainfall forecast through Sunday AM:

Click to enlarge

I will keep a 30% chance in for the morning... but I have a feeling the more significant rain will hold off until the afternoon/evening. Soooo if you are heading out to the Chief's game... it could start OFF dry... but end UP a little wet!! Be prepared!

Also... be prepared for cooler air to move in after this system moves by! Monday... highs should only be in the 60s! And Tuesday morning... morning lows could be near 50 degrees... depending on cloud cover! Here is a look at the cooler air that will be in place as the trough swings through:

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Refreshing!
Jamie

Posted by at 9:37 PM | Comments (2)

Rain Chances

Oh... they are there, all right! Rain chances continue right through the weekend! We are seeing light rain already this morning... here are rainfall amounts as of 7am:

KCI: .16"
DOWNTOWN: .01"
OLATHE: .05"
ST. JOSEPH: .04"
TOPEKA: .07"
EMPORIA: .05"
LAWRENCE: .02"

Expect these numbers to go up as the weekend goes on! This morning, our frontal boundary is north of us:

Click to enlarge

This front will continue to sag our way before stalling out someplace over the viewing area later today/tonight. Where this front ends up will determine who sees the heaviest rain. Right now, it is still looking like the northern 1/2 of the viewing area will see the most rainfall... but we will have to watch where that front ends up! It will not rain the whole weekend... there will be periods of dry weather... but expect several rounds of showers/thunderstorms through Monday.

This, of course, will help relieve some of the left-over drought conditions in the area. You can see the driest parts of the viewing area are shrinking, as recent rains are whittling them away:

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For those of you that keep track... please comment below with your rainfall amounts as the weekend goes on! Thanks, and have a good one!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:01 AM | Comments (5)

Weekend forecast

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The above map shows the surface conditions at 6 PM Friday evening. Wow! The seasons are changing now. It will be interesting to see where this front stalls. A lot of rain will occur near where the front stalls combining the energy from a series of weak upper level disturbances from the west. After the main disturbance moves by Sunday night or Monday morning the colder air will arrive. We have been thinking 60s for days now. So, Monday and Tuesday should be in the 60s if not cooler.

There will likely be a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms with this set up through Monday. I feel confident that we will all have more than 1 inch of rain by Monday and there is the potential for a lot more.

After this goes by the entire weather pattern majorly changes. The jet stream is dipping further south and things are starting to move. More on this during the next week.

Gary

Posted by at 7:27 PM | Comments (2)

Tracking a Weekend Storm

Hey... the great weather continues around here! Yesterday's high made it up to 83 degrees, and we should be a few degrees warmer this afternoon... with partly cloudy skies. The chance of rain increases as we head into the weekend!

However, it is still a very tough forecast for the weekend! A front will be coming in from the North, and at the same time... an upper level wave will be moving in from the West. Someone will see some significant rain... here is where the NAM/WRF and the GFS think that rain will be:

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Click to enlarge

Both are trending to keep the heaviest rain in the northern 1/2 of our viewing area. But it is something to watch, as the placement of the front/wave will ultimately determine if that is the case. Gary will have an update later today with NEW DATA!!!!

Have a great RED FRIDAY!!
Jamie

Posted by at 9:06 AM | Comments (3)

Tricky Weekend

Good morning, everyone!

I hope you are all having a great week. The weather has been absolutely beautiful... and today and Friday, we will continue that trend. Expect partly cloudy skies, and highs in the mid-80s.

Things get a little tricky as we head into the weekend. Gary's blog entry below talks about the different features we will be watching. It still looks like it could rain, but the timing is in question! Right now, we are thinking the BEST chance of rain will be on Sunday. We will continue to watch it, and keep you updated!

In other weather news... TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE is moving west-northwestward over the Atlantic Ocean. Here is the projected path:

Maximum winds are near 50 mph, with higher gusts. Florence could strengthen into a hurricane sometime on Friday... and it looks like it will move just west of Bermuda. BUT the path can change, so it is something to watch!

Not much going on today... I hope you have a great one!
Jamie

Posted by at 10:25 AM | Comments (3)

Rapidly changing pattern

Good afternoon everyone,

The latest data is indicating the generation of a weak upper level storm. This is over the Rockies by Friday morning and moving slowly our way. A cold front is also moving our way Friday and should slide into the region by Saturday. These two features could combine to bring us some heavy thunderstorms.

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid Friday morning, 72 hours)

Click to enlarge (72 hr forecast surface flow valid Friday morning)

Above you can see the 500 mb flow forecast for Friday morning showing the weak upper level storm over the Rockies. And the main jet stream across Canada has generated a cold front that will make it here by Saturday. The second map shows the surface flow and you can even see our new Tropical Storm Florence entering the picture to the southeast. This will likely miss Florida and curve north across the Atlantic and possibly become a major hurricane. The east coast will be paying close attention to Florence for days.

We could end up with a lot of rain here on Saturday depending on how the features come together. Let's see how this trends on the new model runs. September is often a wet month, so let's get some rain in here. We will be making some special graphics for tonights shows on NBC ACTION NEWS. If we up the chance to 50% then you know I am leaning towards a wet Saturday, but if we keep it below 50% then we are hedging our bets.

Gary

Posted by at 11:39 AM | Comments (20)

Hottest day winner!

Good evening everyone,

I hope you all had a great Labor Day. Wasn't the weather just awesome the past two days. So much for carrying on last week about this upper low. I would have rather just said it will track north of us and we will have a great holiday weekend. I will try to be smarter the next time. Either way I still enjoyed the weather.

Now, to the hottest day contest. It was actually very close. Three people actually hit the day and everyone else missed. Some of you missed by one day. We had three days this summer where the temperature was officially 104 degrees at KCI airport (this was our verifying location). Here are the dates and times that it hit the hottest day of the summer.

It was 104 degrees on the following dates and times:
July 19th....2:37 PM
August 1st..2:59 PM
August 6th..3:24 PM

So, who won? The winner of one of my books "Our Spacious Skies" and a couple of Plush Windy and Stormy pets is.........well how about our third place finisher.

Chris (that's what he called himself) picked August 1st at 4:39 PM. This only missed the high by 1 hour and 40 minutes.

Our runner up picked August 6th at 4:12 PM. This missed by only 50 minutes and Steve Newport just missed winning. Great second place finish Steve.

The winner of the contest only missed by 6 minutes. That's right.....Jeff Wunsch picked August 6th at 3:30 PM. Wow! Great Job Jeff! And August 6th was likely the hottest of the three days. It was 105 to 106 around the city that day whereas on the other hot days KCI was actually the hottest in the surrounding area.

Congratulations to our winner and now everyone should begin thinking of when our first snow will be. The official contest for all of Kansas City begins during the first week of October. You should wait until the weather pattern sets up though. I will wait until November 10th to make my prediction, but that may be too late since it can happen in October and did in 1996.

More on this changing weather pattern tomorrow.

Gary

Posted by at 8:28 PM | Comments (1)

Second Season of severe weather

Good morning and happy Labor Day!!!

It has been almost two weeks since Windy died. And, I was able to read all of the blog comments, letters, and emails this weekend. There are still a few left to read, but not many. I am so touched by the effort some of you put into this and how Windy touched some of your lives as well. Some people have made donations to various shelters and this will help other animals as they try to find homes, and others sent in poems, pictures, and memories of their own experiences. Thank you so much. Breezy, Stormy, and I are doing very well.

September has arrived, and it has once again dried out. Have you noticed? The weather pattern is in massive transition this week. The jet stream is strengthening slowly and beginning to dip and rise in places unlike in the past few months. Severe weather season begins in March and reaches its peak in May and early June before falling apart by summer. There is a chance of a "second season" where the conditions can be similar to spring depending on the weather pattern. It isn't the same as during the spring months for various reasons. As the jet stream strengthens and dips further south we begin to have the potential for spring like set ups. This most often occurs between September 15th and October 15th. Then, the cold fronts often get to strong and later in October and November the set ups don't usually have enough moisture and severe weather conditions, unless the storms are powerful, which has happened in November in recent years. But, the mid September to mid October time frame is more like spring. It will completely depend on the weather pattern that is chaotically shifting about this time.

Have a great holiday. I am going to look at all of the entries for the "hottest day" contest and announce the winner later today or tonight.

Gary

Posted by at 11:37 AM | Comments (9)

Fall Around the Corner & an Upper Low

Look at the lows this morning in the western Plains, 30s! This is a sure sign that fall is around the corner. It is not unusual to see 30s in western Nebraska & Wyoming in early September. However, it is a bit early.

Click to Enlarge

Now we turn our attention to an upper low to our north (See map below). As long as this system stays to our north, we will have a fairly nice Labor Day weekend. There is an exception. A weak cold front & disturbancce are rotating around the main upper low (blue line). The front/disturbance will roll through Saturday afternoon & evening. There is just enough moisture in the atmosphere for the front/disturbance to work with. So, we may have a brief shower/T-Storm Saturday afternoon or evening. Amounts would be trace-.25" & any rain would last no more than 30 minutes to an hour.

Click to Enlarge

Posted by at 8:16 AM | Comments (6)

August Stats Day and weekend forecast

Good morning everyone! It’s Friday!!!!!

The “Cut off low, Weatherman’s woe� is going to form north of Kansas City this weekend (Dr. George Fishbeck, my idol growing up in Los Angeles, came up with that name for this kind of storm years ago). I am now expecting this system to track north of Kansas City which will limit our rain chances considerably. Let’s see how the new data looks later today.

Today is also August Statistics Day, so here are the stats:

Highest temperature: 104 (1st, 6th)
Lowest temperature: 61 (15th, 30th)
Rainfall: 7.66�

Here are some more rainfall totals (June-August totals as well)

KCI airport: 7.66� (12.13� June-August total)

St. Joseph: 7.33� (13.15�)

Downtown: 7.28� (12.84�)

Lee’s Summit: 5.06� (12.57�)

Gardner: 5.70� (15.79�)

Olathe: 8.11� (17.22�)

Pleasant Hill: 5.80� (11.77�)

Chillicothe: 6.07� (11.09�)

Sedalia: 2.43� (5.79�)

If you have August and three month totals please let me know. We are going to make a graphic for the weathercast tonight.

Gary

Posted by at 8:14 AM | Comments (19)