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 September 16, 2006

Another Weekend... Another Chance!

Well it wouldn't be a weekend around here, without the chance of rain, right?? ;) There are ongoing thunderstorms in our northern viewing area this morning:

sept 16 esp.jpg
Click image for current ESP

These thunderstorms are moving northeast at a pretty good clip... so they shouldn't last past the morning hours. But while they are around, those northern communities can expect brief heavy downpours, lightning and gusty winds! Most of the afternoon will be dry, windy and warm... but the chance of thunderstorms again increases overnight. The SPC has us in a SLIGHT RISK:

sept 16 severe.gif
Click to enlarge

Damaging winds and hail will be the main threats for us. Isolated tornadoes are possible today... the best chance is well to the north of KC:

sept 16 tornado.gif
Click to enlarge

I will have an update this evening! Enjoy the day!
Jamie

Posted by at September 16, 2006 7:05 AM

Comments

************************
To continue on with what my "cycle" is, here is the note from the NHC regarding the storm forming behind Lane.

"THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AFTER 96 HR THE SYSTEM
COULD TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA"

This is interesting since it would be this trough that would spawn the wierd little shortwave/vort that would fit my pattern thus far...

Gary had mentioned that these EPAC storms would not affect us, unless there was a Cali trough. Well..there it is. Like clockwork.

Strong front - week later, cutoff or near cutoff low in Midwest/Ohio Valley, followed 3-5 days later with a shortwave from the SW blending with another front, followed a week later with another strong front. About a 30-40 day cycle.

Yes..I know I am wrong and crazy...but staying at the Holiday Express has proven fruitful thus far ;-) Once I finalize this non pattern, I will next begin looking at how it affects this area and put together some other trends that will help forecast precip.

SCOTT:
Mother Nature is ALL about cycles! Isn't research fun?? Have you tried to go back and look to see Gary's weather pattern theory in past years? He has been following it for 15 years. It might be fun and challenging for you to pick a year of the past... and try to see the pattern.

Then you can tell Gary... "hey, in 1990... I see a pattern that started around {insert date}, and it's {insert number} days long!" .... and then he can tell you if you have correctly found it! This can be good practice for identifying future patterns!
Jamie

Posted by: Scott at September 16, 2006 10:13 AM

*******************
Dang Jamie, we are now at 94 here (3:40 PM) at my corner of Lawrence and still climbing..also having consistent wind gusts in excess of 25 which is high for a residential area,which as you know means it is mighty breezy out in the flatlands.

Any best guess yet as to who will see tonight's exciting weather.

Bob

BOB:
It has gotten out of control today with most cities in the 90s! Emporia has been up to 96... sheesh! And, yes, winds have also been gusting 30-40 mph. There is a Wind Advisory out (not for us...) but for much of the Central US.

The strongest thunderstorms will likely be farther to our North, near the surface low and upper storm. We will probably see a squall-line form along the cold front and roll through overnight into early Sunday morning. Watch for damaging winds and hail. The good news... the timing of this thing... there is a chance things will weaken a bit. We'll watch it.
Jamie

Posted by: Bob from Lawrence at September 16, 2006 3:42 PM

*********************
Jamie:

Is the SPC going to issue a watch for us, or are they going to wait until the storms develop to give us warning? I think this is going to be a busy night!

We shall see, but I think we are in for a major outbraek and the SPC has no clue!

BRIAN:
The storms will tend to weaken as they head our way. Damaging winds and hail will be the main threats. We may go under a watch at some point. (Svr T-storm?)
Jamie

Posted by: Brian at September 16, 2006 8:03 PM

************************
Hi Jamie:

My last comment I misspoke about the SPC. While I am not crazy about how they do things, they seem to be on top of things for tonight. I just think that watches should be issued by the local weather service offices and not controled by the SPC who isn't in a local area. That is what I meant when I said they do not have a clue. It is just like TWC and ACCU WX. They are good for their purposes, but local forecasts are much better. That is why I perfer WEATHER PLUS because you guys come on and EXPLAIN what is going on. SPC does a good job for what they do, but I think you guys do much better.

Brian

Posted by: Brian at September 16, 2006 8:26 PM

******************
I have been watching all of the tornado watches to our west and up north what are our chances of tornadic weather. Do you think it will still weaken before it gets here? Thanks

SHELLEY:
We have to watch it. We have more of a wind/hail threat than a tornado threat. It won't be here until the early morning hours Sunday. 3am-7am.
Jamie

Posted by: Shelley at September 16, 2006 8:32 PM

*******************************
Jamie...that might be a bit tough to do. I haven't collected data beyond this year, and not sure where I can find other sites that do. That would be interesting, but I think if it were that easy, then everyone would be doing it, and the GRC wouldn't be that special. Now that I know what to expect as far as the timing and parameters of the GRC, I can ask more targeted questions this upcoming fall/winter to see if we can clearly define/communicate the features.

SCOTT:
It will definitely be fun for you to go through the weather pattern with Gary this year. I have done it twice now... and it really is amazing that things repeat ALL along!
Jamie

Posted by: Scott at September 16, 2006 8:42 PM

*****************
Good Evening, Jamie

Well..severe weather ignites tonght! snowing in Montana and 90's in Kansas today and it was all set. Watching the NWS tonight in N.D., S.D., Neb., Minn. ect is like a spring outbreak. It's 85 degrees currently at 9pm here in KC so i would imagine it's going to be lively even though our show will be diminished and late in the wee hours. I would still have a heads up even then for some possible violent weather. Jamie, did you happen to see the news out of NWS about El-Nino showing up? it's already indicating a moderate event this winter and possibly the Atlantic hurricane season being surpressed by it's emergence. It should be fascinating to see how this coupled with the dry pattern breaking down hopefully, plays out with a traditional midwest winter.

Robert

ROBERT:
Yes, it has been an exciting day across the central US with all the thunderstorm activity! I did see the El Nino stuff... and I cannot wait to see how things play out this winter. I hope KC gets to cash in on some snowfall, as we are very overdue!
Jamie

Posted by: SkyMan at September 16, 2006 9:38 PM

 
 

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