« Fast Changing Pattern |
| Email from Gary! »
Back on the Upswing
Today has been a beautiful Fall day... and did you happen to catch that firey sunset?? If not, we are capturing a timelapse and will show it tonight at 10pm.
As we've talked about, this cooler weather will be short-lived as an upper ridge begins to build towards Kansas City. By the end of the weekend we could be in the mid-to-upper 80s!!!!!!
Friday and Saturday will be our "transition" days... as the trough departs and the ridge advances. We should see highs in the lower to mid 70s on Friday... depending on cloud cover. There may be some high clouds around early on... but the sun should come out more as the day goes on. Saturday we will make a run at 80 degrees... we think we'll stop short, though... probably in the upper-70s.
Then, things could get out of control by Sunday! Take a look at these 850mb temperatures:
Click to enlarge
These are temperatures about 5,000 feet up. We use this chart to track the movement of airmasses... rather than a surface chart... because at the surface, temperatures will have a big swing between nighttime and daytime readings. (An example is Friday. We'll start off in the 40s and warm into the 70s for the afternoon hours.) Anyway... these 850 temps are very warm; 21 degrees Celsius. At the surface... it could be 82 to 87 degrees!
So for the second half of the weekend and for the first part of next week, it should feel more like summer around here. We are still watching the front for the middle part of next week. There's a lot of uncertainty on where that sucker will be... but we have a small rain chance in the forecast for early Wednesday.
Have a great night!!
Posted by at September 28, 2006 7:28 PM
This warm air might likely get out of control. The soil moisture in the ground is quite low in many areas, and it does not take much to heat up very dry ground. If this were August and the 850 temps were 21C+ we would have a heatwave.
This ridge is also bringing downslope winds from the plains of Canada all the way southeast. The GFS locks this pattern in for more than a week. Now, we probably will not get a freeze until late October. We also desperately need a storm system.
You're right... just today I said to Jeff, "It COULD be 90!"
We're not seeing any signs of colder air for awhile. The front for next week is not much at ALL... the rain chance is low... and we may warm UP on the backside. It's crazy.
Posted by: Devin at September 28, 2006 8:26 PM
1. The next trough will materalize east of us in the Ohio Valley. Little chance of rain or temp relief. After that, we will have some chances about a week later from the shortwave. [See previous blog prediction]. We won't see a huge temp dip until mid October when the next big front comes through.
2. If the GRC only looks at 500mb, isn't that a bit biased as the atmosphere moves at all levels? Granted, it is a fair median of all levels, but I think the 300 and 850 would also be very telling..especially for long range jet patterns. Dunno...seems like looking for a rainbow with sunglasses on.
The troughs and ridges are AT the 500mb level... that's where all the storms are! That is really what we are looking at... the longwave troughs and ridges set up and then start cycling. The 500mb level really dictates what happens at the 850 and the surface. And at 300mb we don't have vorticity to track.
Posted by: Scott at September 28, 2006 9:25 PM
The freeze Jaime, the FREEZE. I need the freeze.....I'm tapped out on Claritin.
I know, I know. We just got the pollen count in today... and it says LOW for both pollen and mold. Ragweed and ascospores are the main pollutants... and even though they are both reading low... it must be some weird combination of the two that really get to me. I have been sneezing all day! Unfortunately, temperatures are going UP not DOWN.
Posted by: Walk at September 28, 2006 10:33 PM
Hey weather team,
I am up early in Vegas. It has been a great trip so far and I am WINNING believe it or not. I won $200 (blackjack) this morning when I went up to look at the weather data. I am staying at Mandalay Bay and they charge $15 for using a computer for a half hour. What a rip off.
The weather pattern continues to be in massive transition and there is no organization to it at all. So, we are almost to that exciting time of the year when the weather pattern does begin to organize, but not yet. It may be quite boring now, but let's hope a good pattern sets up. We will know within 5 weeks. The pressure is on.
The Mr. Olympia fitness expo begins today and I am going to the event for motivation. I have worked out every day while on vacation here and I am very relaxed.
Keep up the great work! I am heading out to the pool.
Posted by: Gary at September 29, 2006 9:53 AM
One interesting item that I have seen at the 500mb level is that the split flow in the Pacific is developing on the models. This has created havoc with the winter weather patterns in the past. Central Pacific warm episodes also tended to exhibit more of a split jet stream pattern for North America. The 12Z GFS develops a large ridge in the Pacific after day 12. Until then, not much excitement for us.
Day 12? That is fantasyland! ;) We'll see the new pattern evolving over the next month! We generally say it sets up between October 10th and November 10th... so there is still a couple of weeks before it even starts.
Posted by: Devin at September 29, 2006 12:58 PM
In a couple of days I will post my September readings (hi and lo based on Lees Summit, rain from my guage at the house). For now it looks abysmal for rainfall at Blue Springs - only 1.22 or so, with the heaviest fall being only a third of an inch. So, the droughty conditions have not left this area. Looking at the GFS briefly, looks like October isn't gonna be wet either...ah well,
It does look very quiet around these parts for the next week or so. Dry AND warm. Can I get a "yawn"?? ;)
Posted by: Stormdog at September 29, 2006 4:01 PM