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I will do another entry on our thoughts about this storm later today. Until then here is a surface map lesson for those of you interested. The first map below shows the RUC forecast for 4 PM this afternoon. You can see the developing storm at the surface in response to a vigorous storm in the upper levels which I will show you later today.
Click to enlarge....valid 4 PM today
So, can you plot all of the fronts, troughs, lows, highs? Below is the map that I quickly drew on some of the features. By no means did I go into extensive detail on the entire map, but I did plot the features around our developing storm system. It is a very well defined surface cyclone and when you have well defined features like these then you know it is a strong storm. The one thing missing is an abundance of low level moisture. But, some moisture will be sucked out of the Gulf of Mexico just as the storm approaches us tomorrow. More later on the upper levels and the new data.
Click to enlarge....Parameters drawn on map
Have a great day!
Posted by at September 20, 2006 8:39 AM
Hello Mr. Lezak,
Are you expecting this to be an all day event?
Same rainfall amounts expected as the forecast from last night?
Any threat of severe weather?
It continues to look like last night with 1/2 inch to 1 inch amounts. But, there may be a well defined line that if south of that line there won't be much at all. So, I have some concerns as to where this line will be. Right now I place it 70 miles south of Kansas City. This would put us in the rain, but slightly further north and we just get a few showers. A bit further south and we get more than an inch of rain.
Posted by: Ben Tracy at September 20, 2006 9:03 AM
We'll be in Des Moines, IA this weekend. Does it look cool and rainy there as well?
Des Moines looks rather wet Thursday and Thursday night, and then again by Saturday.
Posted by: Marlina at September 20, 2006 9:39 AM
I cant tell on this map. I dont have the NAM or the other models So I cant tell how tight the Isobars are So Im going off Pressure Falls which I can track. Since this is a strong System the Pressure grads must be tight. If I am reading this right if we did have a so called 100 plus railroad car train of Moisture It could have become a very Severe Weather Day Similar to this past Sunday Mar.13th Which was a very Tornadic and Very large hail event. Here in De Soto had 3 TVS and Tennis ball sized Hail.
One major thing missing is deep and rich moisture.
Posted by: Steve Newport at September 20, 2006 10:37 AM
Jamie The Dancin' Fool --
Jamie You so Craaaaaaaaazy -- You sooooooo coooooooool -- a Dancin' Fooooooooooool !!!!!!!
Jamie was having a great time at the K.
Posted by: Springer at September 20, 2006 1:50 PM