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 September 18, 2006

Dry until Thursday

Good morning,

Sunset sept 17.jpg
Sunset Sunday evening

It was 92 degrees Saturday followed by some nice thunderstorms Sunday morning before sunrise. Our next chance of rain may come on Thursday. If the upper level storm tracks to our north as it does on the 06z NAM model then we could have just one quick band of showers or thunderstorms and that is it. If it digs harder and further south then we will have a better chance of heavy rain.

84 hr nam.gif
click to enlarge (84 hour NAM valid Thursday afternoon)

The GFS digs the storm a bit harder west of us. I don't have a feel on this storm yet. The wave digging into the Pacific Northwest will likely carve out a deeper trough near us by Saturday. A lot of activity, but will we see any rain out of these systems? We should have a much more precise forecast by later today.

Tonight we should dip down close to 40 degrees. Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at September 18, 2006 7:43 AM

Comments

************
Loving the cool weather. I sent you some pictures from Sedona,AZ. last week on my husbands email. Hope you enjoyed them. Truly beautiful out there. Hope you have better luck in Vegas then I did.
-------------------
Ginger,

I won't be gambling that much in Vegas. It ruins my trip if I lose. So, I will keep it to a minimum, unless I start winning. I have a blackjack system.

The pictures are likely sitting in my in box. I will look at them when I get to work.

Gary

Posted by: Ginger at September 18, 2006 8:36 AM

*****************
Good morning Gary and the rest of the KSHB weather team. Just a quick question, and I may have missed it, when will you present your fall forecast? I noticed a couple of meteorologists are doing that and unfortunately doing exactly what you feared, Gary, blaming the weather on El Nino. But I am seeing and noticing from some other meteorologists in Wichita and here in Topeka, they feel that this winter will be a little different because of the breakdown of that huge ridge that you had already discussed. Thanks, Michael
------------------------------
Michael,

The weather pattern is always very different. One of the details of my theory is that every year is unique. So, the weather pattern that sets up between October 10th and November 10th will be unlike any other weather pattern that has ever occurred. So, yes it will be different, but it won't be because of El Nino. Any forecast for the winter that comes out now is only a guess. The only credibility it will have is if it goes with an El Nino anomaly pattern. So, it would have some chance of being right. We really won't know until the pattern sets up and it is almost that time of the year, but not yet.

Gary

Posted by: michael huffman at September 18, 2006 8:42 AM

******************
Gary,

Other than our monsoon several weekends ago, my lawn watering continues. Its very discouraging to see all the rain amounts around the state and only .16 here in Grain Valley and only .71 for the month. Maybe Thursday our turn will come.

Are there any long range models indicating any changes towards a wetter weather pattern?

Jeff
----------------------
Jeff,

It has been very discouraging. And, I don't see any help from the late week storm at this moment. It has been another dry month for us, not just Grain Valley even though you have one of the lowest totals. Hopefully the pattern that develops in October will be a good one. October can tend to be a dry month anyway, so we are running out of time.

Gary

Posted by: Jeff at September 18, 2006 9:09 AM

***************
Gary,

I have seen this happen before when these cold core low pressure areas form. They generate their own cold air, and then when they exit the air behind is mild. It has to have something to do with the developing El Nino. The CPC has the latest frame up from September 13 and the SSt anomalies are still increasing. I am VERY concerned that this could turn into a moderate El Nino episode and impact the GRC fall/winter pattern.

Devin
----------------------
Devin,

The GRC develops independent of El Nino. So, don't worry about this. If it is a strong El Nino then there will be influences on temperature anomalies, etc. but the weather pattern will develop without influence from El Nino. This is what I believe anyway.

The current chaotic pattern is just a result of the developing and strengthening jet stream and I also believe this current set up has very little influence on the pattern that will form in October.

My theory is called a theory for a reason. It isn't fact. Even though I believe in it almost 100%. There are always things that defy logic.

Gary

Posted by: Devin at September 18, 2006 11:09 AM

*****************
What is GRC?
-------------------
One of the bloggers, Scott, named my theory the GRC for Gary's Recurring Cycle. I will be tallking a lot more about it in the coming weeks.

Gary

Posted by: David at September 18, 2006 11:57 AM

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Nice to have a good strong "fall" storm system to blow through! The only thing that I regret is that I had to sleep through the band of thunderstorms, but oh well, Now it feels like late October and I love it. This september is a world different than the last one, the last one seemed like late August through almost the entire month, so I'm content( at least for now.)
Nick in St. Joe!
------------------------
Nick,

I am going to do a graphic on the comparison Tuesday night. Last year it was 85 or higher 22 out of the 28 days since August 25th. This year we have had 2 days out of those same 28 days. WOW!

Gary

Posted by: Nick Rau at September 18, 2006 3:51 PM

 
 

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