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 September 2, 2006

Fall Around the Corner & an Upper Low

Look at the lows this morning in the western Plains, 30s! This is a sure sign that fall is around the corner. It is not unusual to see 30s in western Nebraska & Wyoming in early September. However, it is a bit early.

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LOWS SATURDAY.gif

Now we turn our attention to an upper low to our north (See map below). As long as this system stays to our north, we will have a fairly nice Labor Day weekend. There is an exception. A weak cold front & disturbancce are rotating around the main upper low (blue line). The front/disturbance will roll through Saturday afternoon & evening. There is just enough moisture in the atmosphere for the front/disturbance to work with. So, we may have a brief shower/T-Storm Saturday afternoon or evening. Amounts would be trace-.25" & any rain would last no more than 30 minutes to an hour.

Click to Enlarge
GFS 6Z SATURDAY.gif

Posted by at September 2, 2006 8:16 AM

Comments

******************
been getting some strange weather up here today, have had several reports now of funnel clouds forming with the heftier showers up in ncmo today.. think they are likely some sort of cold air funnel?

Glen,

Thanks for the report. I mentioned it at 5 PM.

Jeff Penner

Posted by: glen briggs at September 2, 2006 3:22 PM

Hey Jeff! Just giving a good hello. Not a whole lot weatherwise to get excited about except the perfect weather for the first College Football Saturday!

Posted by: hank at September 2, 2006 9:11 PM

***************
Fall is here. Not much to watch now other than the tropics and the first freeze. I have saved the MLSP, the 200 and 500 for the NAM and GFS to see if I can spot this pattern again in about a month or so... [ducks again]
---------------------
Scott,

Please keep track of it. You will see. I have 100% confidence. What is going on today will be very different then next week and the weeks following, but then SUDDENLY, it happens between October 10th and November 10th. It doesn't mean that during this chaotic transition period it has to be boring. It may get very exciting soon.

Gary

Posted by: Scott at September 3, 2006 2:41 PM

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Gary,

The current weather pattern seems to be giving the southwest some very heavy rainfall and flooding. Is this an excellent monsoon season for them or is it related to a developing El Nino. The CPC says that the current prediction is that the SSTs will stay normal to slightly above normal through eary 2007. I am looking forward to the new GRC fall/winter weather pattern! If I remember correctly did you say that ENSO has no impact on our winter weather patterns?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
This website lists the cold and warm episodes by season. The information is great.

Devin
------------------------------
Devin,

This is a great site and I will study it later. A weak El Nino is possibly starting to show signs of development, but it really is still neutral at this moment. It is something I will be paying close attention too. El Nino/La Nina definitely influence the weather pattern, but they don't help create it. Something completely independent is going on and I am not sure what this is yet.

So, I believe that El Nino or La Nina will affect the weather pattern AFTER it is set up. More on this as we approach our new weather pattern.

Gary

Posted by: Devin Kellerman at September 3, 2006 6:35 PM

**************
Too funny...I was expecting a post back from Jeff...

I can't remember...if you say Oct/Nov 10th ish...is that when you see the first cycle, or is that when the first cycle begins and you see it about a month later? I would have to assume the later, as if it was the first thought, it would be possible for the cycle to start now to see it on Oct 10th. So..at worse..I am predicting the cycle to start about a month earlier than normal...right?
----------------------
Scott,

The cycle NEVER starts early. The weather pattern begins setting up in October and then becomes "stuck" by early November or so. Well, this is my theory anyway. It can't start early. Something happens as we move into October and early November to the jet stream currents. What is going on now may be the very early beginnings of what may start setting up. However, I doubt it has much to do with our eventual pattern. This is why I say August through September is always chaotic transition.
And, the CPC admits that their most unreliable seasonal forecasts are the ones issued for the autumn months.

Gary

Posted by: Scott at September 3, 2006 11:35 PM

*************
I like to see about 20" of Snow! That would be COOL!
---------------------
Andrew,

20 inches of snow would be on our 100 year average for Kansas City. But, lately that seems like a lot. So, I am hoping for this too.

Gary

Posted by: Andrew at September 4, 2006 8:33 AM

 
 

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