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Fast Changing Pattern
The upper level pattern the next 3-4 days will be undergoing some rapid changes. A deep trough is swinging through the Midwest Thursday, bringing us the cool weather (see map 1, valid 1 PM Thursday). By Sunday a broad ridge will cover the Plains (see map 2, valid 7 AM Sunday). This will allow for a summer-like airmass to move in. The humidity will be creeping up as well. It is going to be rather warm for the Chiefs game with highs at least in the mid 80s. It was 73 for the home opener.
The warmth & humidity may lead to T-Storms sometime next week as a front tries to get near us.
MAP 1, Click to Enlarge
MAP 2 Click to Enlarge
Posted by at September 27, 2006 10:09 PM
I think I am going to make a small revision to how I describe my cycle, as it is still present, but a bit morphed on the second phase. First phase, BIG FRONT. That has been consistant. But..the second part with the cutoff/blocking may need to be tweaked to the sagging mid Ohio low mixed with the big SW ridge. This was first observed when Alberto mixed with the first cutoff low, the second was almost a cutoff, but still over the Ohio Valley, with the ridging...and based on the image above...this will be consistant with the Ohio Valley and the ridging. All of these have a bit of blocking. For this one, note the 84hr 18z GFS run with the H over the NE and in the E. [graphics would be great to illustrate this] The third phase is the ever present odd SW shortwave. Regarding the timing..here is the best of what I can see, and I will associate it to the current 18Z MSLP GFS.
1. Big front. 12hr
1a. Warm temps and building sw ridge. 18-24 hr.
2. Ohio Low with blocking/ridge 84hr
3. Deepening goofy SW shortwave 168 hr [progressing from sw to SD on this frame for those scoring at home]
Fast forward to the 384 hr frame..what is that I spy coming in from S. Alaska? Yes, the BIG FRONT forming again. Notice the isotherms...blast of cold again with it.
To remain consistant...it should take about 3-5 days after this last frame to get to KC.
That would be 19-21 days from now. And that would put it at Oct 16-18th. I might have been a bit early with my snow prediction of the Oct 19-24. Maybe a day or two off.
Looks like a 20-25 day or so mini cycle. This is starting the third cycle that began on Aug 13th, then Sept 10th, and this one for Sept 28-30th
Here is the excerpt from Garys Aug 10th blog
"The old pattern is falling apart NOW and the craziness begins next week with something completely new. It all starts Sunday night with a stronger cold front with potential for thunderstorms." [Sunday referred to is Aug 13th]
Here is the excerpt from Jamie's Sept 9th blog
"Also... be prepared for cooler air to move in after this system moves by! Monday... highs should only be in the 60s! And Tuesday morning... morning lows could be near 50 degrees" [Monday and Tues are Sept 10-11]
And for this swing..see Jeff's post "A deep trough is swinging through the Midwest Thursday, bringing us the cool weather"
If this gets posted..thanks..I know it chewed up alot of space..but I think I nailed this.
So you are looking at the MSLP for your pattern, or the 500mb charts? When we talk about a blocky pattern, it is typically from looking at the 500mb troughs/ridges. And at this time of year these temp swings/fall cold fronts are the norm... as we are in mass transition! One more thing... and maybe you are already doing this... but instead of analyzing the model data... you should be saving all of the CURRENT charts when they come out, so you can see EXACTLY what happened... not what was forecast to happen. Does that make sense? Keep at it!! :)
Posted by: Scott at September 28, 2006 12:00 AM
All I wanted was fall-like weather for the Renaissance Festival on Sunday. Looks like I'll have to pull my shorts out again though.
There's a BIG warm up this weekend... bad timing! Today would have been perfect!!
Posted by: Marlina at September 28, 2006 11:33 AM
Hey Im starting to look at the Weather over this winter. Im starting to think that it will be a mild one. Not as warm as last winter. Last winter had some weird patterns and a block pattern that kept away a lot of moisture to the west of the Mississippi river. This winter i think will range mostly in the mid to high fourties. I think that moisture block from last winter will reverse. Not a wet winter but a moderate moisture winter. I have a strange feeling about a Late October light wet snow. Maybe 1 to 3 inches. Have to see what the Temps due. I will know more come October 15th. Thanks for hearing me out.
De Soto Kansas
That does sound interesting, but we go by the theory Gary discovered. The winter pattern sets up randomly each year betweeen October 10th & November 10th. It then begins a unique cycle. So, as far as we're concerned it is too early to tell what this winter will bring.
Posted by: Steve Newport at September 28, 2006 12:25 PM
How's next weekend look for the KC marathon?
Right now it looks dry & warm. However, the pattern will be undergoing another big change next weekend. So take this forecast with a "grain of salt" this far in advance.
Posted by: Brad at September 28, 2006 12:52 PM
Jamie..you beat me to the punch. I figured if I continued on..surely I would not get posted. I am looking at the MSLP 1000 - 500mb for GFS. Additionally, in getting the dates down, I am going to go back and get the maps of those days, and those of the days upcoming to support this. Also, I am going to map the other phases of the cycle to ensure they are mapping up as well.
Once this is all done, then if I have time, I will do the same with the other model tools and be done with this. But this leads to the next question - and one that Gary has asked. Sure we have cycles, but what starts them? If I can pinpoint a time of when I think it started 8/13, then I will begin looking at other factors globally that may have changed in that timeframe...Atmospheric Cell changes, SSTs, Nino/Nina etc...if I can find a consistant trigger or set of triggers, that will be the last piece to the GRC puzzle.
When we look for Gary's pattern, we are strictly looking at the 500mb charts, which show the longwave troughs and ridges. We take the ANALYSIS of the 500mb levels... that is put out twice a day... so there is no model bias in it. That is how we discover what the pattern actually IS... and then we can look for it in the models. And if you can figure out what causes it all... you are a genius! ;)
Posted by: Scott at September 28, 2006 3:23 PM