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 September 12, 2006

Looking for Sun

HIGH: 67
LOW: 59

Well, the clouds did indeed hang tough today! And with cooler air in place... it REALLY felt like fall! Fall doesn't officially begin for 10 days, though... Friday Sept. 22nd just after 11pm. A solid deck of stratus clouds finally began to break up late this afternoon... and here is what is left as of 6pm:

sept 12 century.jpg
Click to enlarge

Mostly clear skies overnight could lead to patch fog development as we head into the early morning hours. And while we may start Wednesday with fog... the afternoon will be absolutely BEAUTIFUL!! We should see plenty of sunshine, and nice temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s. The warming trend will continue Thursday, when temperatures will be in the 80s again!

You can see the dramatic change in temperatures from today:

sept 12 tue.gif
Click to enlarge

.... to Friday:

sept 12 friday.gif
Click to enlarge

Then we're tracking a storm for the weekend!! More details to come... enjoy the nice cool night! Tomorrow morning we will likey see temps in the upper 40s/lower 50s!!

Posted by at September 12, 2006 5:59 PM


Jamie, this weather rocks. Any idea as to when we might be able to keep this stuff around for a while?

I agree... fall is my absolute FAVORITE time of year. Next week is looking pretty cool... but let's see how this weekend storm plays out!

Posted by: Dave C. at September 12, 2006 7:00 PM

Hello Mrs. Jarosik,
I have been reading about this years weather and found out that the Climate Prediction Center predicts an El Niño for this fall into winter.
I have been looking at a Kansas City weather almanac and found out that previous El Niño years.(97-98, and 82-83) had both early and late season snowfall. In 97-98 we had an inch of snow in October, and in 82-83 over 7 inches in April.

Do you see any signs of us having an abnormal winter season?

If you believe in Gary's weather pattern theory, there is no way to tell if we will have an abnormal winter season until the pattern sets up in Oct/Nov. It will be interesting to see how this possible weak El Nino influences whatever pattern settles in!

Posted by: Ben Tracy at September 12, 2006 9:59 PM

It's about time we got some cooler weather. I'm looking forward to the 40s. It's always nice to go out and have some clear air in the morning.
What does the weather look like for the airshow this weekend? Thanks!

This morning, most places stayed in the lower 50s... but St. Joseph & Chillicothe were both at 46 degrees!! Wow!

The weekend looks ok for the most part. There is a chance of rain there, but it won't be ALL weekend. Temps should be in the 80s Sat, and 80s or 70s on Sun... depending on the timing of the cold front. It may be a little breezy, though!

Posted by: Matt at September 13, 2006 11:08 AM

Just got back from Chicago. They are predicting a huge temperature swing early next week for their area. They are saying 80's and rain on Sunday and 50's for highs by Tuesday. Are we going to see this type of change in our weather?

Dave G.

We will see a few days in the 80s... and then cooler weather once the storm passes through. Highs next week will likely be in the 70s, with lows in the 40s possible. We won't be as cold as Chicago, though... as the main storm (coldest pocket of air) will pass to our north.

Posted by: Dave G. at September 13, 2006 11:11 AM


I just looked at the Sea Surface Temperatures on the CPC website, and it looks like the warm anomalies are increasing in magnitude. It is interesting to look at the animations for the Tropical Pacific and the global animations.

Everyone should bookmark this website to keep track of the developing warm episode.

Devin Kellerman

Thanks for posting the website... it is very neat to look at!

Posted by: Devin at September 13, 2006 12:32 PM

This morning was great here in St. Joe, on clear cool nights we usually always seem to have an edge on getting a few degrees cooler than our surronding area on the cities offical temp.( river valley affect I think). also big clouds of fog on shrouding the missouri river this morning that was cool! One unusual thing that I noticed this morning that I usually don't see is steam rising off peoples houses when back-lit by the sun this morning, strange.
Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!

Thanks for the report from St. Joesph! Tomorrow, there may be a little more fog in those river valleys/low places. It shouldn't be AS cool, though.

Posted by: Nick Rau at September 13, 2006 1:34 PM

Question. I know Gary is passionate about his GRC, as I am too very interested. Does the rest of the team share the same passion or opinion on its existance?

Gary and Jeff have been studying the GRC for years... they are both VERY passionate about it. I, personally, have only seen it through 2 years... but I do see that it is THERE and it DOES happen! The questions I have with it... is even though we can see the long wave pattern... the weather doesn't always happen the same LOCALLY. So I can sort of see what is coming... but not EXACTLY how it will play out. Does that make any sense? I believe Brett feels the same, but I can't really answer for him!

Posted by: Scott at September 13, 2006 1:36 PM

I saw where an El Nino has been established in the Pacific. Does this mean a cold, snowy (please) winter for us?

It does not necessarily mean that. We will have to wait and see. But one thing that happens during an El Nino... is that Canada and the upper midwest are WARMER than average. So how that means snowier conditions... I do not see...

Posted by: Dwight at September 13, 2006 3:35 PM

Some of the past weak El Nino years produced colder than average winters. The weak El Nino years of 76-77 and 77-78 produced colder than average conditions for the eastern half of the country. The stronger the El Nino episode the more likely that winter temperatures "could" be higher than average. However, most winters these days are above normal without the added influence of an El Nino. I am hoping the El Nino stays weak so we can have some COLD air this winter.

This website shows the warm and cold episodes by season. They keep the data updated! (I might have already posted the site to Gary)

Devin Kellerman

Thanks for the website and info! Only time will tell what the winter will bring...

Posted by: Devin at September 13, 2006 6:08 PM

This weather is making me want to get out my turtleneck sweaters and go play in some falling leaves! Just a quick question, why does it seem like morning dew increases in the fall and spring and decreases in the summer and winter? Or is it just my imagination? =)

We have more dew when the temperature comes close to the dew point. This happens less often during the winter and more often as the moisture increses from mid spring through autumn. But, it can happen anytime.


Posted by: Marlina at September 13, 2006 9:47 PM


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